저자: MeetKevin · 외국인
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10월 미국 고용 발표 악화: 챌린저 감원 발표가 2003년 이후 10월 최대, 4분기 기준 2008년 이후 최대. 감원 계획 발표 기업이 약 450곳으로 3월 이후 최고. 소비자 둔화(K자 회복)와 몰 공실 문제 지적. ADP 3개월 평균은 흐림. 정부 셧다운 종료 후 BLS 데이터가 나오면 부정적 촬영 가능성. AMD 실적 후 하락을 매수 기회로 언급, 로보틱스(Symbotic) 관심 표명.
다듬은 글
We just got some bad news on the economy. And this is really annoying because it feels like one day we get good news, then the next day we get bad news, then we get good news, then we get bad news. And that's actually reminiscent of an economy that is in transition. The question is, are we at 2007 levels or 2011 levels of transition where we're just sort of like, oh man, that was a crazy recession we went through in 2011, right?
maybe again in 22 uh until they change the definition. Or are we about to go into the pooper dupers? Challenger job cuts report that just came out this morning indicates that layoffs for October were the highest since 2003. We need to talk about that, but we also need to talk about a hidden detail that nobody's going to talk about because it's buried in the report and it's actually potentially more critical.
But let's look at the headlines first. So October's pace of job cutting was much higher than average for October. It's really odd to see these kind of large cuts going into the holiday season. Now, of course, Amazon defends this, for example, with their layoffs of 14,000, which are part of this, obviously, I at least presume, uh, by saying, "Oh, well, you know, this was just sort of like the corporate layer.
We're not hire, you know, we're not firing people that we need in like the seasonal retail division. We still want to sell to consumers, which I, you know, still think is a little questionable. Why not then wait till like January or February? But whatever. Job cuts surpass 1 million for the year, highest total since 2003.
Mind you, we also have the worst October uh not only since 2003, but what you're about to see is the worst since 2008. So again, I'm kind of like uh uh total job cuts for the year are at a million and October's pace of job cutting was much higher than average for the month. Some companies are saying they're correcting after the hiring boom after the pandemic.
But this also comes as AI adoption and softer consumer spending and corporate spending as well as increased costs are leading to belt tightening. And I actually like the jade here because I I kind of think this whole like, oh, we just hired too much after the pandemic is a nice excuse that's relatable because people are like, yeah, it was like there were a lot of companies were hiring because it was hard to find employees.
But let's be real, when you've got increases in cost from inflation and you've got tariffs, somebody's going to take it in the margin. And usually it's the corporations that go, "Crap, we can only take so much." much. I mean, if you look at the ISM and PMI reports yesterday, uh what you end up finding is the companies are saying like, yeah, you know, costs are still going up.
McDonald's is like costs are still going up, but we can't pass them on to the consumer because people aren't paying. There's no PPE. There's no price. So, this is normal. We expected this to happen. Cava, Chipotle, they're all getting wrecked. Malls, I mean, these are consumer-based. McDonald's is complaining about it.
Uh McDonald's is trying to pitch you a 99 cent coffee every day to to compete against Starbucks. Starbucks is selling off their businesses in China because their China bet failed. And this mall I went to yesterday, I love this kind of research, by the way. I went to this mall yesterday. It's called the Thousand Oaks Mall.
And what was remarkable is the business just sold to another company. And I looked at the earnings call for the company that originally owned it, which is ticker symbol MAC, a Maul Ree. And I'm like, how come this Mully is saying in their earnings call that they are 94% occupied when I'm like, bro, I'm walking through this, I'm like, that's vacant, that's vacant, that's vacant.
Yeah, we got an entertainment, you know, thing that they kind of threw in here, which doesn't look anywhere as nice or cool as a uh Dave and Busters, and it's dead. In fairness, it's a Wednesday evening, but you kind of go through some of this other stuff, you're like, "Oh my gosh, that store is vacant right there." You walk down, it's like vacancy, vacancy, vacancy, vacancy, and you're just like, "Bro, what's going on?" I mean, it's no surprise malls are dead.
Amazonification or whatever. But I'm like, "Hey, on your earnings report," this was another angle from upstairs. On your earnings report, Mac, you guys are like, "Oh, yeah, we're 94% occupied." And I'm going through and I'm like, "No, you're not." you know, and I'm like, I don't know, may maybe maybe the average everywhere else is that you're 100% occupied everywhere else.
So, I go through the earnings call and it turns out this business is actually selling off their assets with the lowest vacancy. So, this particular mall was included in their earnings call as, oh yeah, we're really grateful we're uh disposing of the following assets. And they go on to list a bunch of malls throughout the country.
And I'm like, wow, that's how you guys are doing it. you guys are paying off debt by dumping your crappy malls and letting other people try to pick them up and flip them. And now I'm looking at the people who are trying to flip it, who've owned it for, you know, a few months now. And I'm like, well, this ain't going well.
You know, you may have you may have thought you were getting a good deal. You may have just bought the bag. But point is like there is true weakness in the consumer. And this is why everybody talks about the K-shaped recovery, right? And the question is like where does this put us in the cycle? And this is the part that makes me nervous because look at this.
This is the part that doesn't get the headlines. Y'all know AMD just reported earnings and right after earnings, the stock was down like 4.7% in the after hours. It was nuts. Now, so far in the overnight, it's recovering and hopefully it continues to recover tomorrow. But the question is, is it a good buy at these prices?
And this is where what I like to do is jump into investing.com. They're a sponsor of the channel and I'm super excited about it because if you get the investing pro plus subscription, you can get a bonus coupon if you use code meet Kevin. Just use the link in the description down below or scan the QR code.
You get 55% for the Black Friday early bird special plus an extra 15% when you use my coupon. But here's what I love. Number one, I'm going to watch EPS revisions after these earnings. Okay, AMD only gets like 46% of their revenue from data centers. Nvidia gets like 88% from data centers. So I want to see that data center revenue really butter out those opex expenses operating expenses at AMD increasing their margin which they beat topline bottom line margins.
So I want to see EPS revisions and then I want to see this change over time because if I take the forward earnings which I can get from here which is great and I could look at 26 27 28 29 30 I calculate this at under a two peg which to me means there's more upside for this chip designer absent of course a credit crisis a liquidity crisis or a labor recession.
Duh. But these were great numbers and the fact that it's selling off means maybe there's a buying opportunity. But what I encourage you to do is explore the functional tools that the investing pro membership gives you, including the latest insights on the actual stock, their Warren AI product to help you understand the technical momentum indicators and also the fundamental facts about the company.
You can add it to your watch list, track those earnings revisions, watch what actually happened with earnings, EPS beats, revenue beats, you name it. Guidance, take it all from investing.com. Just use that link in the description. Support the channel. Support the sponsor of the channel. Go to investing.com and sign up for that Pro Plus subscription.
Use code meet Kevin to get an extra 15% off. So, thanks again to our sponsor investing.com. Earlybird Black Friday. Save 55% on the investing pro or pro pro plus subscription plus 15 extra% off if you use my code meet Kevin. This is the part that doesn't get the headlines right here. Not only did individual companies announce large layoffs in October, but a higher number of companies announced job cut plans.
This is actually a red flag that is not going to get the headlines. Job cut plans are basically like, hey, yeah, like we haven't announced uh the job cuts yet, the layoffs, but we're going to. And Challenger tracks this as well and they found that there were nearly 450 job cut plans at companies. That's up from 400 in September and it is the next highest level since March which saw 350 individual job cut plans.
The total for the month was was the highest you know since 2003 which is more than 20 years. But October itself had the highest total single month in the fourth quarter. So this is specifically referring to the fourth quarter since 2008. So think about this alignment here. Okay. Worst total job cuts for October since 2003.
That's this chart right here. Okay. Ding number one. Ding number two. worst fourth quarter since 2008. And remember, we had even worse unemployment in 2009 after Lehman Brothers collapsed, which is concerning. Uh, and then see, they even say here over the last decades, companies have shied away from announcing layoffs in the fourth quarter.
So, it's surprising to see so many in October. But it's not just surprising to see so many in October. It's also surprising to see now the highest level of announcement plans since basically liberation day tariff panic and we're talking about a lot more 450 companies to announce layoffs is a 28% increase in layoffs to come since March.
So these numbers are bad. technology 33,000. Retail, you know, retail, not a surprise that you're not seeing as many job cuts here yet. 2,400 down a little bit from the prior month. So far, though, we're still high on retail layoffs for the total for the year. Uh services sector didn't see that many in October.
It's actually warehousing that really drove a lot of numbers in October which suggests quote an ongoing overcapacity and automationdriven restructuring. Okay, so I'm going to give you a play but at this point I think this play is getting a little expensive but I think robotics okay s. Symbotic we know this is a play we've been playing since 20 bucks.
It's absolutely been killing it. $4. This is forklift robotics for factories like actual warehouse automation. There are other opportunities that you can get into in robotics but look at that robotics supply chain. Uh Pterodine is an example of a company uh and there are plenty of other companies uh that are involved in robotics.
But look at that robotic supply chain. Talk to your AI about the robotic supply chain. Uh it's it's really impressive I think what opportunities are out there. Uh and and then you know the cues were absolutely phenomenal yesterday. We did have a little bit of a sell down into the close, but I have to say it was crazy crazy that we went from 618 to within 40 cents of my price target intraday yesterday, which is exactly what we called in the alpha report yesterday, which was remarkable.
If you haven't joined that yet, go check that out over at me.com. But, you know, how do we reconcile this with what Nick T tells us? Because this is obviously very frustrating. And the ADP report, well, the ADP report was good, right? Yes, it was an above break even ADP report. But then again, break evens should be including government employment and we don't have the numbers for government employment because the Bureau of Labor Statistics is shut.
So, are we getting potentially a poor sample of the labor market? Yeah. Now, I'm not trying to cast shade on the ADP report. I think it's one of the best sets of data that we have right now. At least it gives us some direction. But Nick Tampers some of the enthusiasm around the ADP report by using the three-month average with the 42,000 jobs growth in October followed by two months of negative.
The 3month average private sector payroll growth would have been negative if it weren't for the report that we got this week from ADP. This is of course where some people say, "Oh, well, you know, this is obviously, you know, Donald Trump's influence. There's some, you know, something shady going on here with the numbers." Who knows?
I mean, like, you know what's sus is that the Federal Reserve was getting the weekly payrolls data and then all of a sudden Waller talks about how we get this weekly payrolls data that says things are a little soft. And all of a sudden, and we don't know this, but we think they may have gotten a phone call from the Trump administration going, "Why the hell are you putting out information that says the economy is doing bad?" Then all of a sudden, they come out and go, "You know what?
We're going to stop giving that data to the Fed." Two weeks later they're like, "You know what? We're just going to give that data to everybody." And then all of a sudden, it's magically good. Like, I'm not trying to be jaded on the data, but I do like and appreciate that Nick T is giving us a three-month moving average.
And I think this this is a reiteration. It's this is like and I think this is just the easiest way to reconcile it. If you go to meet me Kevin.com, I have a bare bull scale. And I think that this this is a nice way to just sort of see like listen, you know, if you're there 10 all in on margin, everything's fine.
Like there's no risk, right? Uh one, you're bearish. Sell everything. We're kind of mid-range here. And the rationale is earnings are good except for that lower consumer uh discretionary and and you know foodbased side of the economy which is unfortunate. A lot of people are suffering things are expensive.
Uh on the flip side earnings at corporations are fantastic but at some point the consumer's pain shows up in corporate earnings. Of course, for now, we've got AI propping us up, but now you've got Open AI pseudo requesting a bailout from the Trump administration. And I'm like, what the hell is going on?
So, it's weird, man, that I will say we are in a bizarro environment. And so, it's not a surprise we're getting this noisiness. And I think for now until this is why I say it over and over and over again. Okay, the government reopening is going to be the next negative catalyst. Between now and then I'm more bullish catalyst, but once the government reopens, I'm negative on reopening.
Why? Why would I be negative on reopening? That's when we actually get that VLS data and it might actually show us that hey we thought we were at 40K for private but if we now get two or three months worth of jobs data all in sort of one cluster it's going to be like merry Christmas we're trending below break even and if we're negative on that for a new 3 months it's not good you know so so the trend is at the moment worsening we'll see how markets react to it today. Thank you so much for watching. I'm going to go on vacation n.
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