저자: Kevin · 외국인
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트럼프 행정부 DOGE의 해외원조 주장(콘돔 5천만 달러 등)을 사실 확인하며 과장을 지적. 원조 예산 전액 삭감 시 1인당 약 194달러 환급 계산을 반박하고, 모잠비크 HIV·피임 지원 규모(연 약 67만 달러 수준)를 제시. 일론 머스크 관련 가족·법적 분쟁과 CFPB 폐지 우려, 연준 가이던스 부재로 FOMC 의사록 관심 저하, 밈코인(Libra·트럼프 토큰) 오더북 스캠 경고를 다룸. 투자 종목에 대한 명확한 가격 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
today we're going to discuss Elon musk's condoms and the lack of use of condoms we're going to discuss my wife on Elon Musk we'll talk about three wins that have occurred with Elon as well as Panic around Tesla there's also a big Federal Reserve problem that occurs this week we should talk about as well as the Javier Malay rug pole it's another good one to talk about as well as uh Bitcoin while we're at it uh so the first thing that we should really touch on is this idea that $50 million of condoms were sent to Gaza mosm Beek this was initially misconstrued by Doge and Elon Musk as being $50 million for the Gaza Strip which then they claimed must have obviously been for Hamas terrorists because who else is there what's really concerning here is that this new governmental agency of efficiency that was created apparently can't even fact check themselves despite having access to all of the data see what's frustrating is us As Americans many of us voted for this sort of change in American government and transparency yet apparently what we're getting is a bunch of clickbait from people like Elon Musk without actual facts cor corroborating their statements now this is frustrating because we're supposed to look up to people like Elon Musk the entrepreneur of a generation but but listen to this because not only does he acknowledge that he's wrong about the $50 million going to the Gaza Strip but then doubles down on this idea that wait a minute well you know okay well well maybe it was $50 million to mosm Beek which I don't know that that seems bad too over what time frame did we just send them a check have we ever sent them those condoms before why would we possibly send condoms to MOS and Beek is there any benefit to doing that should we just cut all of that and invest it in tax breaks in the United States or maybe even stimulus checks again because we'll save so much money after all we spend a whole 1 and a half% of our US GDP on foreign aid so maybe we should just ax 100% of our foreign aid spending and then let's see a $4.4 trillion budget 1.5% we'll have a good $66 billion to hand out in stimy checks okay fine let's do it let's calculate $66 billion how many people we got in America like 340 mil all right 660 billion people so billion dollars that' be a lot of people not there yet with the population and so far population R declining divided by 340 million people we would all get a delicious stimulus check of $194 so if we cut our entire us Aid foreign aid budget to zero every every single person in the United States would get $194 and you know what there are a lot of people that say let's grow let's go I I want my $194 I don't want to pay for anything in mosm Beek that's fine but it is the responsibility of leaders like Elon Musk to be blunt with us about where the damn money is going if he's the one with access to the information that he should be giving us the correct information how are we supposed to know I don't I can't walk up to the treasury Department and look up the records that Elon has to fact check him but he doesn't even know himself and this is frustrating now this is just the beginning of what we're going to talk about remember we got to talk about my wife on Elon Musk but first let's listen to this and then let's do a little bit of fact checking with what we can with the limited that we have available you said on X that an example of the fraud uh that you have cited was $50 million of condoms was sent to Gaza but after fact check this it apparently Gaza in mosm Beek and the program was to protect them against HIV so can you correct this statements it wasn't sent to Hamas actually it was sent to mozambik which makes sense why condoms was sent there and how can make we make sure that all the statements that you said were uh correct so we can trust what you say well first of all uh some of the things that I say will be incorrect and and should be corrected so admirable admirable mind you that is admirable but what do you get pointed out multiple times before this moment here it's not like he got cornered on the stage this has already been a big deal for a while maybe you should say hey yo Doge team can you give me the actual facts on this so I don't look like a fool twice nobody's going to bat a thousand I mean any you know we will make mistakes but we'll act quickly to correct any mistakes you know if it if it went to MOS be instead of go I'm like okay that's not as bad but still uh you know why are we doing that right great fair question but what are the actual facts about where this money is going well as far as we can tell we know that some of the money is going when it comes to the Gaza Strip is going to like a $68 million contract is going to fund hospitals in the Gaza Strip but that's the Gaza Strip we already talked about that again if you want to say hey we're going to cut funding to the hospitals in the Gaza Strip so that you know Children and Families or innocent people or whatever can't can't get for and Aid fine then say that hey Doge cut funding to hos hospitals in Gaza that were helping save lives fine then then show us here's where we cut it now you get your check your reimbursement and for that that would be about you know it's not a tenth it'd be about 1 100th so you would get your $1.94 might be off by a fraction there but it doesn't matter might be closer to 19 cents as far as these condoms a lot of funding that does does go to use uh to mosm Beek from the United States actually goes to an agency called the Pediatric AIDS Foundation now this is an organization that helps the roughly 2.2 million people living in mosm Beque with HIV which the hi ends up turning into AIDS and you die okay now there are medications that can help you prolong your life and there are also medications that exist that are are designed to prevent you from spreading Aids HIV the hi you spread the hi okay we want fewer people with HIV in the world because we do not have a cure for the HIV so when fewer people get hi you create less humans in the world with the hi now is that our responsibility many people would say no but that's fine then at least say we don't care about the children in mosm Beek and we're cutting your funding and instead we're giving people stimulus checks at least have the to say that Doge or Elon at least do that because there are organizations like the Pediatric age age Foundation that that they don't they don't provide just condoms they do to some extent I think uh they got a grant for like $43,000 I couldn't find $50 million of condoms anywhere mind you but I will look I I certainly know Elon doesn't know how to find a condom or what a condom even looks like but this is an organization that also helps with t tuberculosis uh uh research around uh medications uh for extending life uh for you know whether it's children or adults with the HIV or TB uh and then obviously prevention now what I was able to find was that uh over a long period of time I'm talking somewhere around 30 years yes us Aid has sent millions of dollars of contraceptive care to mosm Beek this is true and so I want you to know I I want to look at the fact on all sides and I finally found the largest potential source of funding of cols I finally found it I know I didn't find it on Twitter I found it with my own research X look at this USA ID between 1990 to 2021 so 31 years 31 years I want you to think about that for a moment 31 years spent $2.2 million on contraceptive procurement which yes includes condoms in mosm be again you might say that's bull we don't care about the people with the hi even if they might eventually travel to the United States and give your kids the hi that's fine then say that but $674,000 per year went to fund this program now $674,000 $674,000 divided by foreign aid funding of $66 billion works out to this percentage per year of foreign aid funding that goes to condoms in mosm Beek so again if you get $194 per year if we had zero foreign aid to try to minimize the people with the hi walking around then let's go ahead and multiply this by $194 aha you would get one 20th of one penny in stimulus per year so in other words every 5 years you'd get $1 of stimulus for not sending for person in America for not sending condoms to a hot bed of Tu tuberculosis in the HIV to try to keep it corraled I'm not taking a side on whether we should do that or not but I just don't think that this idea that if we stop spending $600,000 a year in mosm Beque on condoms all of a sudden you're going to pay no federal income tax now yes people make this argument that oh well Kevin it's the sum of everything well then listen the the person who is in charge of doing this should have the literal balls to put the actual facts in front of us rather than salacious headlines because that's all we're getting so far we get headlines from Elon Musk and Doge we're not actually getting the details of who they're firing or what the side effects of this are going to be like I'm highly concerned about what the side effects of losing the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau are going to be but again that's a topic for a totally different video I think that is a dramatic mistake it it is idiotic it's like we're going back to 2005 and we didn't learn the lessons of the top of the bubble last cycle and we're going back to negam loans and no consumer protections that's dumb but anyway so this doesn't make sense so when we put the facts together it's different $68 million going to hospitals in the Gaza Strip $43,000 in in a recent funding package going to condoms at most I'm seeing $643,000 per year going to mosm Beek now all of a sudden the facts don't look that wild anymore if if the American people would actually just be informed of the facts I think they can make reasonable decisions and come up with with reasonable answers but even Elon Musk is not doing that and that's concerning to me now Elon Musk did win a little bit here uh he's actually winning kind of like uh Luigi m is winning have you heard about that by the way he's he's got to go find me cooking he just crossed 420,000 bucks look at this Luigi man CEO shooting suspect suspect ECT right anyway um hey innocent until proven guilty $452,000 raised goal of a millionar wow $452,000 campaign funds will be received by the tong Tom Dicky Law Offices is that a is that an actual LA office Tom Dicky oh my gosh wait wait is this a troll look at this who spells lawsuits with two words what it's one word it's always been one word yeah Tom Dicky law space suits here he is he's got Yelp reviews how come his website doesn't work lawyer Thomas dicki law suits are these like you know pinstripe suits that you can buy for use in law there we go Brent Optical custom homes and then all the way here at the bottom we got Tom dicki Tom Dicky is about to make a whole lot of money off of uh Luigi areas of practice criminal law wow all right so what else do we have here we've got law office this is Tom Dicky okay let's get back to Elon Musk so when we talk about Elon Musk he did get three wins here he's got uh a federal judge who just verified that Doge indeed has not been proven not to be a federal agency this is because people who were suing Doge argued that do was not an agency and therefore did not have uh the right to access uh budget information at the Department of Labor Department of Health and Human Services and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau a judge has uh just provided a win to the Elon Musk camp for specifically those three departments so Elon Musk did get a wing here win here despite you know now people literally organizing to protest at Tesla stores uh Cheryl Crow selling her Tesla to donate the proceeds to NPR in sort of a middle finger to the FCC and the new FCC chair who's investigating liberal organizations like CBS and potentially wanting to defund NPR honestly I actually like NPR I don't have an opinion one way or another on on many of these other stations but I always thought NPR was pretty decent at least our local station but then again you know we always joke we're part of ventucky over here they seem to be pretty neutral though but I I don't know I I personally think people protesting Tesla is a little outrageous I get it because it's sort of like the baby in the funding hole of Elon so they're trying to get him in the pocketbook because that's really the only place you can try to get somebody in politics is in the pocketbook imagine that it all circulates around money as opposed to ideas this is why this is why you can't have a neutral like logical person actually win in in politics often it can happen and it does happen there are you know pretty good reasonable rational politicians that get in but most of the time it's the money that chooses H and this is actually why the Wall Street Journal put a whole piece together about how glitch m i mean Mitch McConnell is uh remember him from the stimmy days anyway Mitch McConnell is basically un like he's voted against a lot of the Trump nominees but the Senate has 53 votes so you know even if Mitch votes no it doesn't really matter uh and and nobody's really paying attention to Mitch right now a lot of folks say in part because he's no longer the speaker of the house and when you're not the speaker of the house anymore you just don't have the funding power that you used to see Mitch McConnell used to basically control uh where specific donations went uh I'm trying to find which committee it was it was because John th is now the leader there it is the Senate leadership fund Mitch McConnell used to direct funding for the Senate leadership fund but now JN th does so remember it every the money goes where the money goes so J th gets to direct where the money goes and which politicians get the support well guess what John th has a lot more power than Mitch McConnell and this is why people are sort of you know saying that Mitch McConnell is Fading Into the background I mean I think this is a pretty iconic picture right here like by Mitch McConnell uh sort of a shadow of him for his former self that's what they're trying to allude to here on the Wall Street Journal I mean honestly it's it seems pretty blatant uh Donald Trump of course calls Mitch McConnell a very bitter guy he's lost his power and it's affected his vote right uh yeah I mean that's what happens in politics if you lose the attention and uh the power of the pocket the purse then yeah you lose your influence that's it's very straightforward that's how it works uh anyway there is some drama that's uh exploded I mean something's exploded that's for sure uh over the last few days here regarding Elon musk's now 13th child uh specifically uh this Elon Musk apparently uh at least the allegation is per Ashley stclair has been dodging Ashley stclair uh there's an old post that Ashley posted about Elon Musk where she says well he actually has seven kids and goes through women pretty fast this joke about how she could potentially actually one day marry Elon Musk so Elon replied to that wo and then she replies Elon we have been trying to communicate for the past several days and you have not responded when are you going to reply to us instead of responding publicly to smears from an individual who posted photos of me in underwear at 15 years old all right well this underwear at least from the photos that have been seen publicly seem to be indistinguishable from Beachwear but it's okay still 15 I get it a lot of people say that Ashley stclair is actually presently lying about her age and that she's not 26 that she's in her younger 30s I I don't know any you know what if that's true that doesn't so much matter but what's interesting here is I was talking to Lauren about this because you know we generally don't get involved in sort of the gossip cycle it's just interesting regarding Elon Musk here and I was like hey look you know obviously Lauren and I we've only ever been in one relationship and we have seven kids but we also know what a condom is like unlike I think Elon so it's like there there is a way to stop having children okay but I asked Lauren I go what what what do you think of this this whole thing so I sent her these threads and she actually went a lot deeper than I did because I get exhausted by this this drama uh and uh her take after seeing especially some of these posts such as uh first of all the reference to we have been trying to communicate she thinks this is her legal team who's trying to organize some form of uh agreement uh or contract uh like kind of like a post snup but you're not married just some sort of like child support agreement or contract the New York Post says she is renting in the financial district in Manhattan uh a flat that could potentially run somewhere around $40,000 a month probably funded by Elon Musk so clearly she's getting some funding but Lauren sent me some pictures it's interesting that Elon Musk is responding to clearly injest screenshot that was discussed with his team months ago in a documented call so apparently there's been a lot of drama or potential Bad Blood between the two sides here to where now like attorneys are going back and forth uh Lauren thinks there's a chance maybe Ashley wanted a second child and and he said no uh and and I'll give you some more of what she said in just a moment but uh there was also a post here about the security team on elon's own platform locked the account he is now responding to for a week for posting this photo of uh of me as a child uh there's there's clearly a lot of bad blood that's coming out here what's happened since then is Ashley St CL actually deleted all of her posts alleging these things of course everybody's got screenshots and receipts of this uh and she said she's going to take a break from X so now she's rage quitting X fine I mean I do that in Russ too it's like all right I need a break I'm done with this but that's a video game this this is now a child that we're talking about here a son by the way mind you so I asked Lauren what's what's the scoop on this what's your take about Elon and and how does this affect your opinion about Elon and Lauren said you know I never thought uh that I would have said this about Elon because she said you know I I had respect for his entrepreneurial Endeavors in the past but uh what I'm seeing and it obviously would be nice to hear from Elon but considering that Elon Musk has also been responding to Siobhan's tweets on Valentine's Day but not Ashley's you know another mother of two of Elon musk's children well it leads Lauren to believe there's a chance that maybe Elon Musk is I hate saying it a narcissist this is because she believes Elon Musk is willing to essentially run through women under his I must help repopulate the Earth and fight uh you know the re you know depopulation of the earth and will take advantage of a situation for because he has the money he could pay for the child to have a good life he can uh basically get away with whatever he wants because he has all the power in the world uh and hey you could have children and potentially sleep with some of these women at the same time and then disappear and no longer be a father in that child's life oh well he's got the money to pay for somebody else to be the dad now unfortunately I think this is actually while it's definitely a monetary boost for somebody like Ashley St CL I mean now all of a sudden you're getting a very nice paid for lifestyle and you're posing for you know feed pictures with New York Post over here uh in your flat obviously it doesn't seem like you care too much about privacy when when this is your next move over here it does make you wonder what her intentions were and and and this is something that Lauren said too she said on the flip side maybe it's not Elon being a narcissist maybe this is you know somebody taking advantage of Elon who knows although Elon should know better you know people get taken advantage of all the time that doesn't mean they end up having children with that person so uh in this interview Ashley said that Elon is funny and down to earth and uh that apparently they met uh and he would show her rocket videos and uh and to go on spontaneous trips to Rhode Island I it sounded like it could potentially be romantic I mean people would probably love a Taylor Swift style love story but that doesn't seem to be uh what is going on and and either something went wrong or just things often go wrong when it comes to Elon and women who knows uh but anyway this is a little bit of an update of what's going on uh here you could see a quote here at one point he said are you ever in San Francisco or Austin I am in Austin and Texas a good amount for work St Clair continued adding that she worked for the Babylon B afterwards uh the the B CEO asked uh St Clair to fly to San Francisco to interview Elon at the new company headquarters after the interview I got a text from Elon saying feel like going to Providence Road Island tonight St CLA continued an alleged romance blossomed from there until she became pregnant she claimed she was restricted from telling more than a close circle of people that she was carrying the child I was even told to keep it a secret I was being asked to keep it a secret forever uh musk allegedly provided her with a lavish apartment in the financial district and apparently refused to put his name on the child's birth certificate it's a son by the way uh anyway uh there is um text viewed by the post between St Clair and Jared musk's money manager appeared to show that she complied with the Billionaire's wish to be left off the birth certificate so it sounds like Elon wasn't actually at at the birth for the child but I think what the sadness of this is is you have people like Andrew Tate saying that Elon Musk is like the modern day like Imperial gangas Khan or whatever but this is disgusting to me because first of all you're really ruining two households you're ruining the potential of whatever dude ends up with Ashley St Clair in the future because how how are you like ever going to compare it's impossible next to the richest person in the world and I know money isn't everything obviously but it's a bad setup and then of course you now have more parentless households to which of course some people say oh but here's x with Elon Musk okay well there's a motherless household so it goes both ways and it's just ironic that you have these quote unquote conservative individuals with these like opposite of conservative value Lifestyles like I thought the nuclear family was what people cared about and and so personally I kind of agree with Lauren and I'm a bit disgusted by uh by all of this and it does make me lose respect for uh somebody that I that I once admired as far as the Federal Reserve this week Baron had a very interesting piece about how the Federal Reserve is doing something very unique right now see the Federal Reserve has previously taken this approach of hey um we are going to give you guidance right so the FED uh will give you future guidance and that turned into inflation is transitory which turned into it's not trans atory uh we're going to hike a lot then we're going to go higher for longr now TBD bro so Baron had a good piece on this because they basically broke out that it is become a lot harder for the FED to give any guidance in part because of uh Trump uncertainties uh tariff uncertainties economic uncertainties and so the FED is something that it actually rarely does the FED at the moment uh the FED is not giving forward guidance they're just reacting to the data that there is now so this is very interesting because when they were giving future guidance they were wrong they were wrong to give future guidance that inflation was transitory now when that and we know that now when that passed now they're refusing to give future guidance because they're like ah the data right now is good okay great so where do we go from here well we have the FED minute coming out this week does anybody actually care that the FED minutes are coming out this week the answer is ha hard no why does nobody care that the FED minutes are coming out this week well it's simple because there's not going to be any forward forward guidance in it what good does it do you if there's no forward guidance in it not much so with that said the Federal Reserve has actually become a lot less interesting to pay attention to and until they flip-flop again and start providing us guidance again there's really not much to listen to when it comes to jpow and I it's unfortunate to say that because I really enjoy covering what the FED is doing but I'd like to be the first to say that right now is not the time to talk about the Federal Reserve we're much better off talking about Elon Musk okay no we're not going to we're much better off talking about Javier malle's International lawsuit that's potentially coming for his rug polling crypto scam Libra and this is why I will never launch a token unless it is registered with the gov which is a possible now and it's basically then just a regular security I think people are owed uh a clear outline of what the protections are for investors who the board is who the Insiders are what the exact allocations are where the shares are held when they're being moved and sold or whatever instead what happens with a lot of these tokens including Libra which Javier Malay says oh I was just promoting small businesses dude that's that's bull crap you knew what you were doing it was a big payout come on now he argues oh these are dirty people they scammed everyone I didn't know uh how how dare they that's fine that's fine Javier everybody can do that but you should have known better it was a meme coin there's no question that you should have known better they all bleed out the Trump token that had 80% of the supply held by insiders which people think is a good thing right people think limited Supply is good no it means that when you go to put your Market buy order in the price purposely shoots up because there's so little access to available tokens on purpose you could literally slice up a pizza right now into 10 slices and say I have nine of them who wants the other slice 10 people raise their hand for that pizza slice say I'll put in a market order and everybody's putting in a market order and I put in my limit order and say well I'm only selling at $100 boom that slice a pie Pizza sells for $100 because you put in a market order it just automatically happens the entire Pizza is now valued at $1,000 that is an orderbook scam and then what do I do well then I take the ninth slice of pizza and I go who wants it for $1,000 and I sell it cool now I'm up $1,000 then the price goes down then I take the next one and I sell it for $700 and the next one for $500 and I eventually end up pulling out 3 four5 $6,000 for a pizza that's essentially worth $10 or zero that's an order book scam the Insiders purposefully restrict liquidity so that way on announcement liquidity and Market orders Drive the price up the order book and then insiders start slowly increasing the supply so they can make a quick getrich quick profit and the sad thing is nobody's actually regulating this Donald Trump is actually purposefully deregulating it so he can participate in the scams with you know the Trump token or uh the Milan a token and then it you know the thesis is oh well no I mean he could be liable as well really we just made the president immune from liability for anything it's an official act bro debate Me On whether it was official or not was marketing wasn't president yet some people will say all right well do you have the money to fight the Trump regime no of course not anyway so these order book scams are very dangerous they're likely to keep happening uh and I would caution people to be very watchful for this it's very unfortunate and um this this is why it's so interesting too when you raise money for in legitimate ways like when we raise money for house hack which we have our reg a coming up soon uh it takes months it it's taken like three four months for us to get the reg a up for house hack because it's there's so many barriers legal barriers to make make sure that is this audited is the company what they say they are or do they have the appropriate disclosures you don't get any of that in a meme token cuz there are no fundamentals it it starts a scam and it ends a scam I just hope nobody Falls for it but but clearly many people do it's literally a way of transferring money from the poor to the rich because everybody wants to get rich quick it's sad anyway that's my report for today
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