저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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결론: 인도 시장 전망은 낙관적이나 단기 조정은 감수해야 하며, 대만 반도체 비중 확대를 선호한다. 인도 시장: 장기적으로 우상향 전망, 중간 조정은 있을 수 있음. 인도 기업 자본수익률이 높다고 평가. 설명 외 구체적 목표가·기간 언급 없음. 보유 종목: Apollo Tubes, Metropolis, Dream Folks(신규 편입), Persistent Systems 등 보유. 인도 IT는 하드웨어(반도체) 쪽이 성장할 것으로 봄. 인프라/건설: 건설 섹터는 예측이 어려워 회피, 건설 공급업체(Apollo Tubes)는 선호. 에너지 전환: 태양광·풍력은 중국 경쟁으로 가격 하락, 수익성 악화로 회피. 외국인 자금: 고금리(미국 금리 약 5%)와 강한 달러로 자금 유출. 금리 하락 시 자금 복귀 예상. 전략: 현재 금리 수준에서는 예금 확보 후 자산의 절반 이상은 주식 유지 권장. 인도가 최선 시장 중 하나, 대만 등 글로벌 분산 필요. 대만: 반도체 산업 강세, 대만이 중국·인도에 반도체 부품 공급, AI 수요로 고급 반도체 수요 증가. 대만 비중 가장 높음(22% 이상). 중국: 회복까지 시간 소요, 민간 부문 압박으로 부정적. 중국 노출은 대만 경유 권장. 은행: 투명성 부족으로 선호하지 않음. 소비: 고급 식품·기술 기반 외식 서비스 선호. 도시화로 교통·주택 관련 기회 기대. 선거: 2024년 총선에서 모디 재선 가능성 높아 사업 지속 전망.
다듬은 글
that's welcome on board then Mark mobus partner at mobus Capital Partners who joins us on the show Mark good to have you on board I'd say after a deaka Dali you think that the markets are all set for a Merry Christmas what's the outlook on where India currently stands uh well I think that's correct I think we're going to have a good Christmas uh but you must remember in a bull market there always are Corrections so you have to be ready for those corrections but at the end of the day uh India's in such good shape uh such great companies uh there's no question that things will continue the way they are and the market will go higher in the long run with corrections along the way uh i' I'm now in go but I've been to six Indian cities in the last four weeks and it's been quite revealing to me at to how great the infrastructure building is going on and the incredible Vitality of this Nation I think uh India is going to go from strength to strength sure Mark hi this is Anish to joining the conversation just wanted to get a sense from you does does India then stack up as your best trade right now yes well you've seen the companies that we have now and those are the ones that we're holding on to and they're in good shape and I think going forward you'll see a lot of uh other good companies coming in it's really interesting that in India the number of companies with a high return on capital is uh quite remarkable compared to other countries which speaks well for the entrepreneurial Spirit here in India and also the diligence of the management of companies here in India so the last time I remember Mark the list of your portfolio included APL Apollo tubes Metropolis dream Fork C infosystems persistent anything that you've added subtracted uh no actually the only one uh We've added would be dream folks um as you know if you fly at all you know that all of the lounges are completely packed and dream folks is involved in that but you have that on your list yes indeed we do have that on our list among some of the others as well including the likes of a persistent system so just wanted to get in your thoughts on how things have been shaping up within the it space because um it would seem that when it comes to the earnings a growth for some of the large cap it names it wasn't quite as promising what have you made of the earnings gone by within the it space and what is it that you're expecting in terms of performance from it well it generally is going to go uh Stronger in India because of the greater and greater need for uh the US and Europe and other countries around the world for diversification of away from China of course India already is so strong in the so software business so that will continue but I think the hardware is where India will begin to shine so it's going to be very interesting to see how many companies in the hardware sector uh that is semiconductor Hardware sector are listed in India uh not yet but it's going to come and that will be very interesting a lot of chatter around here in India as to how with the upcoming elections in 2024 and you know the currently ongoing State elections there could be a big Philip to the capex theme when you were last year in India in Mumbai you must have already seen the level of infrastructure and you know uh development which is currently uh taking place just wanted to understand whether this is a theme that interests you uh yes uh but generally speaking we found around the world not only in India but in other countries around the world the construction SE sector is very difficult uh there are lots of uh un uh uneventful uh kind of things that take place that in the construction sector which is U uh not predictable let's put it that way so we prefer to stay away from the construction sector generally except for uh companies that do supplies for the construction sector and Apollo tubes would be a good example of that um you know the other thing or rather the other technolog shift which is currently taking place world over is uh the move towards cleaner and Greener fuel anything within the energy transition sector within India which is still at a very very small and nent Stage uh that you like or or at least keeping your eyes Clos on well as you know the uh the whole area of new energy whether it be solar uh whether it be uh wind is growing globally and has become very Diversified around the world the problem is that with the Chinese competition uh driving down prices in solar and also even in Wind uh it's become more and more difficult for people to make a lot of money in that sector to maintain high profitability so uh you have that in addition to the fact of government regulation when you have government regul of course then you've got problems um it's nice if you want a steady dividend income that may work but we want growth in the actual share prices so we prefer to stay away from this whole area of power you said India remains one of the top markets one of the fastest growing economies but the FI flows have been missing in fact we have been seeing consistent outflows this year what do you think is the impediment for the foreign flows to come into India are there other markets which are attractive is valuation something that keeps them away or they're just waiting for this election of what hand to go away your sense well it's all about interest rates you must remember at 5% you know if somebody can put their money in the bank and get 5% it's difficult to uh put more money into India or for that matter any other market so there's a great sucking sound that's taking place around the world and of course there's also a r Treat to the dollar the US dollar is so strong against currencies around the world but this is temporary I don't think this will last interest rates will come down eventually and you'll see money coming back in also Mark you know have to get a perspective in considering the correlation of world Equity markets not just India with what's happening with the yield since you what you just said about um uh you know interest rates you think four and a half to what the US 10e yield has now settled in that could very well be the new normal do you see some stability kicking in there I think interest rates will eventually come down uh along with h inflation as you know inflation is coming down and as I said in the past we saw that coming because uh money supply has come down dramatically so that combined with the general growth in India will mean that money will continue to come in to India there'll be resits like we've seen recently where interest rates are too high and draw money out but generally speaking you'll see money come back in to India and in fact Mark wanted to get a sense from you um globally what's the you know best tactical trade right now in terms of portfolio in terms of various asset classes various countries what would you call the best tactical trade right now right now of course with the interest rates where they are now it would be a good idea for investors to put into the bank and get that high rate of return but keep at least half of their assets into equities uh and I always recommend that of course India's in my view the best if not one of the best markets in which to be invested but you got to be globally Diversified so you might want to put money into Taiwan into other markets around the world where we see very good value is intriguing mark because I was just going at the geographical breakdown as to what is it that you like most and it's Taiwan which is actually topping the list right now with a slide over 22% exposure it's next India and then South Korea um I'm guessing if it's Taiwan it's the entire Tech semiconductor play which interests you and you think that's that one key commodity to bet on well that's right the semiconductor industry is going from strength to strength as you know uh China is now branching out to compete with the US and Taiwan is a big supplier a lot of people don't realize this a big Supply to China China and India uh have of course semiconductor requirements the biggest countries in the world and Taiwan is a big source of these components so uh going forward I think Taiwan will continue to be very strong and of course as we get into AI the demand for very sophisticated semiconductors will increase not decrease you know the other thing also is that there are there's China and us and your exposure there is pretty much neck and neck you know baring a few what percentage points here or there uh what makes you bullish on a comeback from China um I think uh it will take quite some time for China to come back of course this meeting that she had with Biden may help a little bit but I don't think uh it will be really the turning point for the Chinese market uh there's so many barriers and problems that the Chinese market is now facing uh particularly the U the government in China putting more and more pressure on the private sector so that is not a good sign for the market so I would say to people if they want exposure to China go to Taiwan because Taiwan as I said is a big a big trading relationship with China and you can get exposure to China that way Mark you know you were alluding to the fact that AI Etc is very critical when it comes to semiconductors and given the exposure to Tech as a whole how important do you think it is to really leverage all of these new technologies and stay up to speed a lot of new age tech companies seem to be doing that and uh a lot of large capap it companies as well are clearly investing and focusing on AI and these new developing Technologies there's no question that AI is a game Cher uh must remember u a lot of people think something magical about AI it's not magical it's about speed uh what you're doing basically is U speeding up uh computer power and that's the reason why I mentioned semiconductors coming out of Taiwan and being so important those are the higher end semiconductors in the world so with AI you have a very very fast calculation system which enables you to make analyses that you at the speed that you are not able to make previously mark one space which seems to be a consensus buy with at least the domestic institutional investors is the banking space uh they believe that you know given the underperformance that's likely to do better and the entire credit growth in the system because of the entire kex and Manufacturing theme you talked about and even consumption is likely to get a Phillip um are you looking at the financial space in India positively are you tracking any names closely uh generally speaking we don't like the banking sector and the reason is that uh the transparency is not there it's very very difficult to understand what's happening behind the scenes because you can't go into a bank and say give me a list of all your lend uh and your depositors with the amount of money you have lent and the amount of money you have coming in uh this is just not available they will give you the gross numbers but you don't know which one of those lenders will be defaulting so uh we found generally speaking that uh very difficult to go into the financial sector for that reason sure and within consumption is there a basket that you like here in India you know autos for instance uh the consumer durable place or the entire luxury segment as well I think in the consumption area uh food consumption of course is very very critical in India and uh as people get wealthier which they're doing in India they will move up uh the chain they will begin to buy more sophisticated food products and services so you're seeing the likes of Starbucks and other fast food organizations coming into India because they realize that Indians now have the money to consume these services so I would say best to look at the higher end U Spectrum in the food sector and particularly in those food sectors that are using technology for service whether it be delivery whether it be service within restaurants Etc you know I was just going to probe a little bit more about that Mark since you did talk about food outside of food as well you know this full uh this whole upscaling premiumization trend has been at play I mean whether it be real estate whether it be shoes whether it be clothing cars across the Spectrum whereas rural India U still is not really showing up the numbers U outside of the food Tech platforms that you just talked about anything other than um that within the entire premiumization or upscaling uh segment or theme that you like well you must remember the big big Trend taking place now in India is urbanization in other words although uh what 70% of the population is in the rural areas this will change dramatically over the next decades more and more people are moving into the city ities there'll be fewer and fewer people in the Farms the Farms will probably get larger and more efficient U so this is a this is a trend which means businesses will change dramatically then there'll be terrific opportunities in the transportation sector there'll be great opportunities in the housing sector Etc now of course I'm not saying we will invest in those sectors but I'm saying that those uh sectors that serve the transportation and housing sector could be very interesting to look at uh mark tactically one can't wish away the big event that's the election event uh which is going to be a big overhang I guess on the sentiment of equity markets uh what should investors do around such a big thing like general elections which are going to be in 2024 here in India uh I think it's pretty certain that Modi will be reelected um so most of investors I believe have assume that to be the case and it'll be business as usual so um the questions about the Indian election are probably not as complicated as the situation in the US where um it's a little bit more uncertain let's put it that way so I would say that it's business as usual and Life Will Go On with Modi in charge but Mark you have made the tough decision of stepping back from the mobus capital Partners what are you going to do now spend your time by writing books traveling around I have a whole list of new Enterprises on the on the back burner so there are a lot of things I'll be doing uh in the future that will be very very interesting I believe you will be back here in India Sunday we've got the World Cup final uh in Amad in Gujarat and India has made it to the semifinals well I'd love to come back for that as I said I've been to what now six cities around India in the last month and it's been a fantastic experience really has been very impressive to see the incredible growth that you see here and the tremendous creativity that you see in India which is very impressive um mark um if I had to ask you out of the Decades of experience that you have if you had to give the investors one Sage advice what would that be study study study read read read learn as much as you can travel as much as you can and open your eyes to the opportunities that you see around you um so it's very important to be open-minded and to continue to study so in your years of experience learning traveling reading Mark anything that you wish you did differently I can't think of anything I wish to do differently U maybe U study a little bit more than I have but other than that uh it's been a great opportunity for me to be in emerging markets and I continue to be very excited about it okay Mark on that note we let you go appreciate you joining us on the show and all the best for all of those new Ventures we are waiting by to hear what they're about and uh what next H for mark mobus But thank you so much for making time and speaking with ET now thank you okay so
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