저자: 미상 · 외국인
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팔란티어 4분기 실적(순이익 4센트, 매출 5억 8백만 달러 등 시장 예상 상회)을 다루며 내재가치 분석을 진행. 펀더멘털은 긍정적이나 단기 주가 반응(약 13달러 수준)은 과도하다고 평가. 자체 분석툴 기준 중간값 약 5.68~6.25달러 수준을 제시하고 발언자는 풋옵션 보유를 공개. 매출성장·마진 가정에 따라 결과 편차가 큼.
다듬은 글
congratulations to our Russian friend who loved palantir at 45 a share you're getting closer to even you're only down now 82 from your high Palance here just crushed it don't call it a comeback don't call it a comeback they were expected to do three cents a share they made four cents per share their first quarterly net income and revenue 508.6 million versus the estimated 502.6 million now guys if you've watched our videos before we change our tune based on valuation pounds here when it was at forty five dollars a share we said maybe we're interested on five or six bucks a share it has fallen considerably it has had eight probably nine now what's the free cash flow in this one mode if you can check into that this is probably the ninth quarter in a row of free cash flow is that correct cash from operation free cash flow yes yep ninth in a row ninth quarter in a row of positive free cash flow the company has a great balance sheet and last time we checked last quarter was 2.3 billion dollars of cash with no debt um it's currently up 12 per share it was up 15 at one point we're going to see what happens now it's 11 and a half is it coming back a little bit I have no idea so palantir is this to me is the future of data like I look at the reason I'm interested in this company is they're doing a lot with governments and major corporations to use data to solve their problems whatever that may be there's gonna be a lot of data out there when you look at their average sale price their average contract you have to remember they are going for smaller contracts in order to get more volume coming in they don't need the 60 70 80 million dollar contracts anymore they want to get smaller contracts I think some as low as 5 or 10 million bucks in order to grow their revenue what are you seeing on their press release right now so total revenue grew 18 year over year this is for fourth quarter it's actually not that great yeah commercial grew 11 government grew 23 okay they have highlights here for the year commercial grew 29 government grew 19 overall grew 24 total revenue gotcha so they're broke they're growing both sides which is good let's see adjusted free cash flow was about 11 free cash flow margin cash from operations of 224 million representing a 12 margin customer account grew 55 that's pretty good and that's how they got and so the other thing is is there a just is there an average price per contract I could I guarantee that is lower now in order to grow their contract they're cutting more customers 55 there's only so many countries and companies you can go to to get a 50 million dollar contract from right yeah and you're on their press release currently right yes this is their this is their press release they just put out Gap EPS of zero up it's one cent per share um I imagine the non-gaap was the four I don't know what the but this is based off of what we see on the Twitter and by the way if you're on Twitter follow me I'm very active talking about investing and I also have the same name on Instagram but I talk most about my personal life and fun things that's me on Twitter now guys it's currently 4 11 p.m on February 13th eastern time you're probably going to watch this within the hour and you'll see this is how fast we react to Major important news palantir we do believe is an important one because of the up and down it's been is that 15 again no 14 now subscribe to the channel we talk about value investing we are value investors we don't say we are like that other idiot Russian who believes in palantir at 45 bucks he claims they're a value investor he has no idea what investing is what we're here to do is look at every investment as the present value of all future cash flow and our goal is that when the market beats up a stock we want to buy it because we believe the fundamentals haven't changed but the Market's reaction to short-term respond like for us great they beat by a penny does that justify 13 I don't know it seems like a stretch just seems like a stretch yes they beat on one quarter we don't look at quarterly results as a way to justify our beliefs what are you so this is a tweet from somebody and they tagged CNN fast money so I'm guessing they're talking about palantir right now earnings are good CEO is open to sell the company really okay I'm just reading Twitter I mean wow Let's uh I'm gonna pull up CNBC all right well let's find that out maybe I'll never get my uh my investment in palantir in full disclosure I have puts on palantir at lower prices much lower than this and when that means guys is if you're new to the channel a put is I sold somebody the right to force me to buy the stock at a lower price well I'll give you any price but I picked a lower price at some date in the future right so if I maybe picked five bucks five bucks for two years from now I might never see this it might never hit five bucks but I'm okay with that because somebody's paying me the right to do that and I get income along the way in order to do that that is a very important aspect of what Mo and I do we sell a lot of puts to get stocks we want at prices we want we're being paid to wait that's a very very valuable thing you can do if you have a large enough portfolio and position size in companies that's what we love doing what are they saying about anything no they're not talking about it right now is and there's nothing posted on their website as of right now all right I'm gonna go through the analyst estimates so they're expected this year to make 17 cents a share according to the 17 analysts out there and um they're expected to grow to 31 cents a share according to the three analysts out there three years from now so good growth but it's not exactly anything to write home about what's 31 cents times 20 for a growing company six dollars and 20 cents I mean if that's true they're not going to grow that that's not going to be very good for the company but look at this Revenue growth Mo they're talking about 22 this year 25 next year 25 23 according to analysts solid yeah this company has a lot of potential let's look at the eight pillars not enough data on a lot of this because they're a new company new publicly traded company right or they just don't have enough information because they have negative a lot of negative stuff going on they're really they're returning us to Capital last year not including this most recent quarter is negative but remember guys this is where I want you guys to understand where we stand on investments just because the company is losing money doesn't mean it's worth nothing that's that's something we get pigeonholed into we're not those people what we believe is the next year or two could be or three let me put it this way let's say you're at a company that generated the following in following years minus 5 billion then minus 3 billion then even then 5 then 10 then 20 billion dollars is this not worth something you're going to generate 30 35 30 27 billion dollars in cash flow over the next six years what are you willing to pay to get 27 billion in cash flow over the next six years the hard part is sticking with it if negative four three becomes negative 4 for some reason and you go oh shoot are these all going to be wrong right that's why we have a margin of safety that's why we only buy with a margin of safety go ahead Mo that tweet was deleted oh it has since been deleted since been deleted so there you go interesting that's Twitter okay so here's what I want to do I actually want to use our stock analyzer tool to come up with some sort of value on palantir okay now it's going to be hard because here are the things I like about palantir before we get into that look at this gross margin 78.6 percent it's huge that's 10 higher that's 10 a thousand basis points 10 percent higher than Microsoft yeah now there's no bottom line profit margin going to spend a lot of money to grow right so the question is what will that eventually lead to when you have this kind of profit margin gross margin it's hard not to make a ton of money and look at Microsoft they make after taxes and overhead 25 to 30 a year and they're in their gross margins 68 right so could palantir be the same thing maybe see so we're gonna use our stock what was that Mo time will tell correct all right we're gonna use our stock analyzer tool and this conversation about palantir is very popular in our chat and if you want to have some conversations about this guys investing is is when you don't understand things about investing like I didn't for a long time and I'm still learning you fear and the best way to overcome that fear and to be a great investor is to understand the more you learn the less you fear it's a very big thing I say on this channel the community has a lot to do with this the software does so if you want to try it it's seven dollars for seven days check it out everythingmoney.com it has been a very popular option it gives people the opportunity it's for seven bucks what if you're out some big deal and our normal price is 29 a month it's going to 39 soon so those people who sign up for the seven dollars get locked in at the 29 rate when they choose to stick and by the way I think our success rate is like 95 of people who do the seven dollar thing stay you're gonna love it yeah absolutely all right so I'm gonna do a 20-year analysis Moe's gonna do a 10.
now my 20 years necessarily saying it's great but they've been around for 18 19 years and losing money and they're still around so I'm gonna do Revenue growth of okay profit margin this is the hard part this is very difficult yeah very very difficult p e and then desired return so this is the interesting part so wamo is doing this I did rev new growth of 10 15 and 20 these are very big differences in 20 years okay yeah and the reason being okay they did like three billion dollars last year twenty percent a year for 20 years would take their revenue oh I might adjust this after seeing this oh wow 215 billion dollars not bad is it possible sure that's a big jump though it's huge it's a huge jump but that's why I factored it in my 18 Desiring any return more margin of safety as the revenue growth and assumptions are higher profit margin to 10 20 and 30.
again okay let's say there might like like Microsoft 30 great pre-castle margins same thing PE I did 15 16 and a half and 18 same with the price of free cash flow and the reason being is overall Market average is 15. so let's say they just do decent fine give them that multiple they're probably going to have a high return on invested Capital because they're a software business and finally my lowest return I actually want to go higher on that one I just changed mine higher actually I think I'm gonna do 13 16 and 19 okay hit the analyze button what'd you do Mo so Revenue growth I did 15 20 and 25 profit margin 15 19 23 same for free cash flow margin PE 16 18 and 20.
what did you put for P 15 16 and a half and eighteen okay same for Price free cash flow return 14 16 and 18. yeah I don't blame you now guys a couple things before we hit these numbers I want you guys to realize like these are all gross assumptions we have no idea what's going to be that's the key and if you're new to watching the stock analyzer tool you need to watch multiple videos get a hang of it once you get the hang of the stock analyzer tool there's a reason why this is used 1.3 million times in 2022 by our users it's so useful it doesn't factor in the balance sheet but it lets you sit there and make assumptions about the future and tells you what you should pay for the company based on those assumptions right yep that's the big key here I hit the analyze button you did too all right okay I got three dollars and seventy cents on the low end ten dollars on the high end Middle Ground six dollars and 25 cents two on low 11 on high 568 in the middle and guess what my puts are right about there yep so guys thanks very much subscribe to the channel and check out the seven dollars for seven days and everythingmoney.com
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