95% of Investment Managers are Scams, Better Monkeys Throwing Darts: Warren Buffett Charlie Munger

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인간의 나쁜 결정은 '부정(denial)'에서 비롯되며, 투자운용사 대부분은 지수를 이기지 못하면서 높은 수수료를 받는 부도덕한 구조다. 지속적으로 지수를 이기는 매니저는 약 5%에 불과하다는 주장. 기관투자자(하버드 기금, GM 연금 등)가 다트 던지는 원숭이보다 못한 성과를 낸다는 비유를 들며, 장기적으로 미국 주식(지수 투자)이 채권보다 낫다는 견해를 제시. 임원 보상과 기업 지배구조의 자기 이익 추구 문제도 언급.

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01. if I had to name one factor that dominates human bad decisions it would be what I call denial if the truth is unpleasant enough people kind of their mind plays tricks on them and they they think it it isn't really happening and of course that causes enormous destruction of business where people go on throwing money into the way they used to do things even though it isn't going to work it all well in the way the world is now having changed and and if you want to an example of how denial is affecting things take the world of investment management how many managers are going to beat the indexes all cost considered I would say maybe 5% could consistently be the averages everybody else is living in a state of extreme denial they're used to charging big fees and so forth for stuff that isn't doing their clients any good it's a deep moral depravity if some Widow comes to you with $500,000 and you charge her one point a year for and you could put her in the indexes but you need the the one point and so people just charge some Widow you know a considerable fee for worthless advice and the whole profession is full of that kind of denial it's everywhere so so I had to say and that was I always quote demases was a long time ago deas that's 2,000 more than 2,000 years ago and he said what people wish is what they believe think of how much of that goes on and so it's of course it's hugely important and you can just see it I would say the agency costs in Money Management there are just so many billions you it's uncountable and nobody can face it who who wants to you want to keep your kids in school you you need the fees you need the brokerage commissions you need this or that so you do what's good for you and bad for them now I I don't think Burkshire does that and I don't think we Garen and I did it at the Daily Journal Garen and I never took a diamond salary or director's fees or anything and if I have business I talk on my phone or use my car I don't charge it to the Daily Journal that's unheard of it shouldn't be unheard of and it goes on in Berkshire and it goes out in the Daily Journal but it we have an incentive plan now in this journal Technologies and it has a million dollars worth of Daily Journal stock that did not come from the company issuing those shares I gave those shares to the company to use in compensating the employees and I learned that trick so to speak from the guy at byd which is one of the Securities we hold in our Securities portfolio and byd at one time in its history the founder chairman he didn't use used the company's stock to reward the executives he used his own stock it was a big reward too well last year what happened byd last year made more than $2 billion after taxes in the auto business in China who in the hell makes $2 billion who's a brand new entr really in the auto business for all practical purposes it's incredible what's happened and so there is of this oldfashioned capitalist virtue left in the Daily Journal and there's some left in Berkshire haway and there's some left in byd but but most places everybody's trying to take what they need and just rationalizing whether it's deserved or not Warren Buffett says practically the same thing questioning whether endowment funds from General Motors and harid might as well employ monkeys throwing darts are they right and do the facts speak for themselves please listen to what Warren Buffett has to say before deciding also please share and subscribe if you like this video and and you know if the Harvard endowment had come to see me and it's 11y old and you know or general motor pension fund or something and you know said well no but we have to have a balance and we have to maybe have 60% and then we have to sit around every 3 months and listen to a bunch of managers they' have just done better if they' just taken some darts and throw them and and just said we're going to be in America 50 years from now and 100 years from now and we'll do better in socks than we will in bonds uh it's it's it's amazing how hard people make what a simple game it is but of course if if they told everybody what a simple game it was the % of the income or more of of the people that were speaking uh would disappear so you really a little too much of us to expect of human nature that people will explain why they really aren't adding any value to what you can do by yourself or actually you're you know I hate to use the example but it you can have monkeys throwing throwing darts at the at the page and you know take away the management fees and everything I I I'll I I I'll bet on the monkeys but not I don't consider them a superior species and I don't want them to move next door instead of my nextd door neighbor but that is the way it's just the way it has to be Charli do you have anything cheerful to say well frequently and well the wealth advisory business the way it used to be you you go to your resident adviser and say what should I do to protect myself for the future and he says why don't you give me $50,000 if you're net worth now that's my contribution to your future It's A peculiar business yeah it's a great play to go Rich still if you have if if you have a u uh son or daughter that that really wants to make money per point of IQ and per urg of energy and all of that tell them to go to go to Wall Street I mean don't have men the priesthood or anything I mean if that's what they it self- selects and uh it always will be the case I mean no reason to spare about Humanity because they behave in their self-interest they may not actually be behaving in their self-interest over time but they uh uh you know are they happier or who the hell knows but but n