저자: WarrenBuffett&CharlieMunger · 외국인
요약 보기
버핏과 멍거는 성장주와 가치주의 구분을 부정하며 모든 투자는 가치 판단이라고 주장한다. 기업의 미래 현금흐름을 현재가치로 할인해 평가해야 하며, 금리 대비 기대 수익(새 떼 비유)으로 판단한다. 500억 달러 기업이 연 10% 수익을 내려면 매년 550억 달러 현금을 돌려줘야 한다는 예시를 든다. 주주 질문에 대해 멍거는 저평가 기업을 골라 주기적으로 교체하는 능동적 투자도 가치 투자라고 설명한다.
다듬은 글
There is no distinction in our minds between growth and value. Every Every business we look at as being a value proposition. The the potential for growth and the likelihood of good economics being attached to that growth are are part of the equation. Watching carefully, folks. Well, I agree that all intelligent investing is value investing.
Good morning, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. My name is Steve Yates. I'm from Chicago. I'm Berkshire shareholder and this is my sixth year coming to this meeting. I'd like to thank you for all your time and advice through the years. It's been great. I'd also like to thank all those wonderful people who sold Berkshire this year for giving us an opportunity to purchase more of the world's greatest company for dirt-cheap prices.
We will convey your thanks and then I own another stock which sells for four times current trailing earnings. Every quarter we get a report. Earnings go up, sales go up, cash flow goes up, the equity base expands, they gain market share, and the stock goes down. [clears throat] The company has a 60% 5-year annualized growth rate and sells at four times earnings.
I have two related questions. First, is this a growth stock or a value stock? And could you please give us your definitions of these terms? Second, the company sells recreational vehicles. Demographic trends in the recreation and leisure areas, RVs, cruise lines, golf equipment, etc., seem to be quite good.
Do you see any opportunities for Berkshire here? Thanks. Well, the question about growth and value is that we we've addressed in past annual reports, but in in they're they are not two distinct uh categories of of business. Every business is worth the present, if you knew what it was going to be able to disgorge in cash between now and judgement day, you could come to a precise figure as to what it is worth today.
Now, elements of that uh, can be the ability to use additional capital at good rates. And most growth company companies that are characterized as growth companies has have that as as a characteristic. But there is no distinction in our minds between growth and value. Every Every business we look at as being a value proposition.
The the potential for growth and the likelihood of good economics being attached to that growth are are part of the equation uh, in in in evaluation. But they're all value they're all value decisions. Uh, a company that pays no dividends growing 100% a year, you know, is losing money now, that's that's a value decision.
You have to decide how much value you're going to get. Actually, it's it's very simple. It The first investment primer when would you guess it was written? The um, first investment primer that I know of and it was pretty good advice was delivered in about 600 BC by Aesop. And Aesop, you'll remember, said a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
I incidentally Aesop did not know it was 600 BC. He was smart, but he wasn't that smart. That um, uh, Now, Aesop was on to something, but he didn't finish it. Because there's a couple of other questions that go along with that. But it is an investment equation. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
He forgot to say exactly when you were going to get the two in the from the bush. And he forgot to say what interest rates were that you had to measure this against. But if he'd given those two factors, he would have defined investment for the next 2,600 years because a bird in the hand um is, you know, you will trade a bird in the hand, which is investing, you lay out cash today, and then the question is as an investment decision, you have to you have to evaluate how many birds are in the bush.
You may think there are two birds in the bush or three birds in the bush, and you have to decide when they're going to come out and when you're going to acquire them. Now, if interest rates are 5% and you're going to get two birds from the bush in 5 years, we'll say, versus one now, uh two birds in the bush are much better than a bird in the hand now.
So, you want to you want to trade your bird in the hand and say, "I'll take two birds in the bush because it if you're going to get them in 5 years, that's roughly 14% compounded annually, and interest rates are only 5%. But if interest rates were 20%, you would decline to take two birds in the bush 5 years from now.
You would say, "That's not good enough." Because at 20%, if I just keep this bird in my hand and compound it, I'll have more birds than two birds in the bush in 5 years. Now, what's all that got to do with growth? Well, usually growth people associate with a lot more birds in the bush. But you still have to decide when you're going to get them.
And you have to measure that against interest rates, and you have to measure it against other bushes and other um you know, other equations. And that's all that's all investing is. It's a value decision based on, you know, what it is worth, how many birds are in that bush, when you're going to get them, and what interest rates are.
Now, if you pay 500 billion dollars, and when when we buy a stock, we always think in terms of buying the whole enterprise because it enables us to to think as businessmen rather than as stock speculators. So, let's just take a a company that has marvelous prospects, is paying you nothing now, and you buy it at a valuation of 500 billion.
Now, if you feel that 10% is the appropriate rate of return, uh and you can pick your figure, that means that if it pays you nothing this year, but starts paying next year, it has to be able to pay you 55 billion in perpetuity each year. But if it's not going to pay until the third year, then it has to pay you 60.5 billion in perpetuity in perpetuity to justify the present price.
Every year that you wait to take a bird out of the bush means that you have to take out more birds. It's that simple. And I I question in my mind whether sometimes whether people who pay 500 billion dollars implicitly for a business by buying 10 shares of stock at some price, are really thinking of the mathematical the mathematics implicit in what they are doing to deliver let's just assume that there's only going to be a one-year delay before the business starts paying out to you, and you want to get a 10% return, and you pay 500 billion.
That means 55 billion of cash that they have to be able to disgorge to you year after year after year. To do that, they have to make perhaps 80 billion dollars or close to it pre-tax. Now, you might look around at the universe of businesses in this world and see how many are earning 80 billion pre-tax, or 70, or 60, or 50, or 40, or 30, and you won't find any.
Uh so, it requires uh a rather extraordinary change in profitability to give you enough birds out of that particular bush to make it worthwhile to give up the one that you have in your hand. Uh second part of your question about whether we'd be willing to buy a wonderful business at four times earnings.
I think I could get even Charlie interested in that. So, but let's hear it from Charlie. I'd like to know what that is. He was hoping you would ask that. That fellow that's got all his net worth in his stock. And who has a captive audience. So, tell us what it is. You got to tell us. We're begging you.
You want the name of the company? We want the name of the company. We're dying to get the name. Wait until I get my pencil out. Okay. It's called National RV and it's based in California and they sell recreational vehicles. Okay. Well, you've got a a crowd of people with who have birds in the hand and we will see what they do in terms of National RV.
Charlie, do you have anything further on growth and value, etc.? Watch him carefully, folks. Well, I agree that all intelligent investing is value investing. You you have to acquire more than you really pay for and that's a value judgment. But you can look for more than you're paying for in a lot of different ways.
You can use filters to sift the investment universe and uh if you stick with stocks that can't possibly be wonderful to just put away in your safe deposit box for 40 years, but are under priced, then you have to keep moving around all the time as they get closer to what you think the real value is, you have to sell them and then find others.
And so, it's a it's a it's an active kind of investing. The investing where you find a few great companies and just sit on your ass because you've correctly predicted the future. That is what it's very nice to be good at. The movie was G-rated even though Is that it, Charlie? So, you got formulas involved in finding intrinsic values on certain companies.
I mean, you've got a mathematical system set up. Just got to present value future cash, yeah. Second question is, why haven't you written down your set of formulas or your strategies in written form so that you can share with everyone else? Well, I think I actually have written about that. If you read the annual reports over the recent years, in fact, the most recent annual report I I I use what I've just been talking about.
I use the illustration of Aesop. Cuz here Aesop was in 600 BC. Smart man. Wasn't smart enough to know it was 600 BC though. I mean, wouldn't take a lot of foresight. But, Aesop, you know, in between tortoises and hares and all these other things, he found time to write about, you know, birds. And he said, "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush." Now, that isn't quite complete because the question is how sure are you that there are two in the bush and how long do you have to wait to get them out?
Now, he probably knew that, but he just didn't have time because he had all these other proverbs to write and had to get on with it. So, but he was halfway there in 600 BC. That's all there is to investing is how many birds are in the bush, when are you going to get them out, and how sure are you? Now, if interest rates are 15%, roughly, you've got to get two birds out of the bush in 5 years to equal the bird in the hand.
But, if interest rates are 3% and you can get two birds out in 20 years, it still makes sense to give up the bird in the hand because it's all gets back to discounting against an interest rate. Problem is often you don't know, you know, not only how many birds are in the bush but in the case of the internet companies there weren't any birds in the bush.
But uh But they still take the bird that you give them if in the hand. But it's But I I I I actually have written about this sort of thing and stealing heavily from Aesop who wrote it some 2,600 years ago.
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