Investing in Taiwan, USA, & China Semiconductors: Opportunities and Threats | Charlie Munger

요약 보기

영상은 찰리 멍거의 과거 발언을 엮은 콘텐츠로, 우크라이나 사태 이후 중국과의 대규모 충돌 가능성이 낮아졌다고 봄. 중국 기업은 미국 대비 낮은 밸류에이션으로 매력적이라 언급. 반도체는 지속적 재투자가 필요한 힘든 사업이라 평가하며, TSMC를 최강자로 칭찬하나 인텔은 과거 지배력과 달리 현재 부진하다고 봄. 미국 인텔 오하이오 공장 등 보조금·대출 구조에 회의적. 본인은 반도체 경험이 부족하다고 밝힘.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. I would argue that the chances of a major confrontation with China have decreased, not increased, because of what happened in Ukraine. I think the Chinese leader is a very smart, practical person. And Russia's intervention in Ukraine doesn't look like an easy walk. I don't think Taiwan looks like such an easy walk anymore.

02. I think this issue has not been addressed in China for a long time. And I think that helps the prospects of investors investing in China. And another thing that helps in terms of China's prospects is that you can buy the best, better, stronger companies in China at a lower valuation than in the United States.

03. So, you are taking on additional risk that may be worth investing in , given the additional value you can gain. That's why we are in China. It's not that we prefer to be in some foreign country. Of course, I would prefer to be in Los Angeles near my home. You know, that would be more convenient. But I can't find that many investments near my house.

04. But I, um, have more optimism about the Chinese party leader than most people. He also did a lot of things right. And, you know, he even led a major anti-corruption campaign. He did a lot of things right. So I don't know where this person lives. Where is there a place where government is perfect in a world of seven woes?

05. Democracies are also not so brilliantly governed. So it's natural that some decisions are made by governments that don't work well, it's natural that in every individual life there are decisions that don't work very well. We live in a world of sin, sorrow, and error. This is what people have to deal with in their days.

06. So I don't expect the world to be free from stupidity, mistakes, etc. And I just hope I'll be around to see how many people have more common sense than bad. I don't know anyone who is always right. And stay away from Cupertino, California, writes, and this is in the same vein, but a little more focused.

07. Um, how should we think about the political climate around Taiwan and the long-term impact on the semiconductor industry specifically? Do you find chips and the Chips and Science Act favorable? Well, the semiconductor industry is a very unique industry. In the semiconductor industry, you have to take all the money you've made, and with each new generation of chips, you put back all the money you've made before.

08. So it's a must- investment of all if you want to stay in the game. Of course, I hate this kind of business. At Berkshire, we like to have a lot of excess cash that we can do other things with. And of course now, if you're ahead enough, like Taiwan Semiconductor, then it could be a good buy at those prices.

09. I I I I It's not at all clear to me that I will achieve huge success. But it's a complicated...It's a business with huge prospects for the main winner. But it's a difficult business because it requires everyone to constantly increase their bets, using all the money. So this semiconductor business is not perfect.

10. But remember when Intel owned the world? Intel was once the Taiwanese semiconductor business of the world. They invented this damn business and dominated it for decades. And Intel... It's not clear to me that Intel will have a very decent semiconductor business, lagging as much as it does now. This...

11. My answer is this: it's not as reliable as it seemed. Even with incentives to build factories here in the United States, how is Intel doing in Ohio? Of course, it would really help, but they are borrowing money that ...There is no indication that the government is going to forgive the loans or anything like that.

12. This...This is not like the recent business loans where they said, "We'll lend you money and then you either move out or keep the money." The government doesn't plan to do that with these new semiconductor loans. And so, this... this is not an industry where I think I have a lot of experience. What the hell do I know about semiconductors?

13. Are you concerned about any condition that the government might impose on companies that ultimately use this money for semiconductors or something else? Of course, all of this is closely tied to government policies in both China and the United States. So I would prefer to have something more reliable.

14. But I believe that Taiwan Semiconductor is the strongest semiconductor company in the world. So I mean, I'm a big fan of what they've accomplished. It's just incredible what they've achieved. Uh, by the way, about what you like best, Ami. And by the way, it might be a great investment. The fact that I do n't like it because I'm an old man and don't like learning new tricks doesn't mean it's not suitable for some younger person who understands it better than me.