Why Value Investors Avoid the Movies Business? | Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger

요약 보기

버핏과 멍거는 디즈니를 과거 황금기와 달리 사업 여건이 점점 어려워진 기업으로 보며, 영화 산업은 투자자에게 수익을 내기 어려운 구조라고 평가한다. 디즈니는 한때 ESPN 등으로 큰 이익을 냈지만 지금은 어렵고 '피의 목욕'이 될 수 있다고 우려한다. 영화 사업은 본래 자신이 피해 온 영역이며 제작자·에이전트·배우가 돈을 벌고 투자자는 어렵다는 입장이다. 파라마운트 역시 매력적이지 않다고 선을 긋는다. 극장 매출은 팬데믹 전의 약 70% 수준이며 시청자 수나 시간을 크게 늘릴 수 없다는 점을 근거로 든다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Art Presser writes in and says the Florida governor and legislative body has recently taken a stand to try and control Disney's exclusive self-governing authority previously set up in Florida under the founder Walt Disney. As your organization, I guess by this they mean DJ Co, still owns Disney shares, you think Disney shares are still a good investment given this backdrop?

02. We've never owned Disney shares. That's my mistake then. That is your own. No, but but Disney is an interesting case. Practically every business that Disney has has gotten tougher than it used to be. Again, welcome to human life. Think about Disney once owned the world. Lion King was running a long run on on the theater district of New York.

03. They went from triumph to triumph, marching, marching, marching. All of a sudden on practically every front it's more difficult. This is what happens. Imagine Kodak which totally dominated photography in the world. And the inventor of this new tech technology, Kodak wiped out its common shareholders.

04. Do you think Disney's headed down the same path or you think that they'll be able to pivot? I mean I know you followed the company closely. I think Disney has a lot of assets in it, but yeah. It's unpleasant to have something How would you like running the sports ESPN [snorts] now at Disney compared to its heyday?

05. It's going to be way harder for them. The stock's up this year. doesn't move movie movies look to me like it's going to be a bloodbath, too. So, it it's not a bet easy. It was easy. In the heyday of ESPN, Disney made nothing but money out of ESPN. It was a tall gold mine. What about other uh movie businesses?

06. I I'm thinking of Paramount, which is a huge holding that Berkshire now owns, recent. I live within a few blocks of Paramount Studios. And I don't even know anybody at Paramount. I have avoided the movies like the plague as an investor all my life. I've never made an investment in a movie business in any way, shape, matter, or form.

07. It always gives me the willies. I don't like the unions. I don't like the crazy agents. I don't like the goddamn crazy lawyers. I don't like the crazy movie stars. I don't like the people who sell dope to the musicians. I mean, everything about it is not my culture. I like those old English actors when they came over.

08. You know, I grew up with them. And but basically movies is not my scene. So, I I've ever I've avoided it. It's a very It's always been very hard for the people who put up the money. It may be a very good place to make a living as an actor or a writer or something or a musician, but it's a hard place to make money if you're an investor.

09. Disney was unique in its animated what it offered, you know, in the '30s and '40s, and and they wrote the stuff off in the the first showing, and then they they rejuvenated Snow White and but [clears throat] all the other people every 7 years, and that was fine, but this is a different world. And uh and the eyeballs aren't going to increase dramatically, and the time they can spend on it is not going to increase dramatically, and you got a bunch bunch of got that don't want to quit and uh uh who knows what pricing does under that.

10. But anybody tells you what they know what pricing will do in the future is is is kidding themselves. Charlie? Charlie's had a lot of experience incidentally with Hollywood. I mean, he used to before I even met him. I think the movie business is one tough business. Yeah. That's my view. The talent will make the money, the agents will make the money and if you've got a theater you know, the theaters are now doing 70% of the business that they did before the pandemic.

11. And big hits, you know, have enormous grosses but you can't reduce the supply. People have only got so many so many hours in the day. They've only got two eyeballs and and they've got more choice than ever before and they've got stuff that's cheaper that it offers them the same experience and not some of them like the experience you know, particularly the big hits of going and but it isn't like you can double the number of people or double the eyeballs or anything like that.

12. And and you've got a lot of people the talent will always get paid and when you essentially are packaging that talent one way or another and you need to get higher prices and you've got a lot of strong companies that don't want to quit. Uh that's an interesting an interesting equation. Hey, if you think the movies are tough, try investing in a New York show on a conventional stage.

13. There they think it's a breach of faith in that business to let the person put up the money ever get any money back. Yeah. Yeah, well Charlie saw a lot of that actually when he Yeah, I don't like those businesses. Tell Tell him what happened on Cleopatra, Charlie. It's No, it it it it's a business that everybody's tempted.

14. They love the idea of going in it, you know, and they get a certain amount of psychic income, but uh but I never owned any race horses, either.