저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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AI는 2030년까지 다른 어떤 기술 플랫폼보다 큰 가치를 창출하고 디플레이션을 일으키면서 AI 관련 활동의 붐을 만들 것이라는 결론. 엔비디아: ARK는 $5에 매수해 현재 약 $400까지 상승했으며 일부 이익 실현. 다만 좋은 소식이 상당 부분 선반영됐어도 장기적으로는 여전히 잘 될 것으로 봄. 하드웨어 대비 소프트웨어 시장이 약 8배 크다는 관점에서 향후 수혜는 소프트웨어 기업으로 이동. 소프트웨어 종목: UiPath(로보틱스 프로세스 자동화), Twilio, Zoom(6월 AI 신제품 발표 예정), Exact Sciences, Teladoc 등을 거론하며 엔비디아가 $5~10B였던 시기와 유사한 10~12B 규모로 봄. 지식노동자 임금 약 32조 달러가 생산성 향상의 대상이라고 주장. 테슬라: 현재 약 $200. 자율주행 택시 플랫폼이 2030년까지 8~10조 달러 매출을 낼 것으로 전망. 2027년 $2,000 가능, 자율주행이 안 되더라도 연 15% 수익률 기준상 최소 $400. ARK 플래그십 펀드에서 최대 비중. 중국: 머스크의 중국 방문은 수출 확대와 평화 미션 성격. 중국 시장은 마진은 낮아지더라도 규모의 기회가 크다고 봄. 규제가 혁신을 막지 않을 것이라 기대. 거시: AI 훈련 비용은 연 70% 하락하는 강한 디플레이션 요인이며, 이로 인해 금리가 내려오면 혁신 전략에 이중 혜택. ChatGPT를 전환점으로 봄. 투자 방식: AI 관련 주식은 액티브 운용이 중요하며, 독점 데이터와 비전 있는 경영진을 보유한 기업을 선별해야 함.
다듬은 글
this is really important we also think that AI is highly deflationary in the good sense but it will cause a boom in activity associated with artificial intelligence in today's video arc CEO CIO Kathy Wood weighs in inventory pileups liability driven investing commodity prices and why she believed that the FED is making a mistake as they base policy on lagging economic indicators wood discusses fiscal policy monetary policy Market signals economic indicators and Innovation we've owned Nvidia since Inception some of our funds still own it our arkq fund and arkw and arkq it's number seven in Japan we have three funds that own it we have our metaverse fund our Mobility as a service fund and our Global digitalization fund so they still own it and as you know from our ETFs we have taken profits this stock has gone from five dollars when we first bought it to four hundred dollars there's a lot of good news discounted in this stock and we still think it will do well Over time however there's a a new group of stocks that are going to benefit from the foundation that Nvidia has laid Nvidia is a hardware stock and sure it has some software but the history of hardware and software is the bigger beneficiary over time is going to be software and in our view for every dollar of Hardware that Nvidia sells software providers SAS providers will generate eight dollars in Revenue so we are looking to the software providers who are actually right now where Nvidia was when we first bought it so Nvidia was in the five to ten billion dollar range now it's a trillion dollars as you said but we have software opportunities out there like uipath in the robotics process automations face twilly video in the genomic space we have exact Sciences teledoc we have companies that are because of artificial intelligence they are going to develop new businesses that we think are going to thrive and right now they are in that uh 10 to 12 billion dollar range that that was uh in place when we first talked about Nvidia so we are really happy that you know investors who own uh benchmarks like the NASDAQ and and QQQ still own Nvidia they own it in some of our portfolios but we're on to the next thing where do you see the market going well we think this is a very large Market uh and uh we believe right now the hardware side of it is probably in the 30 40 billion dollar range uh so multiply that by eight we see the software side going to eight times that but over the next between now and 2030 we think artificial intelligence is going to add more value than any of our other uh technology Platforms in fact it's going to catalyze them we talk about uh Tesla all the time it actually is the biggest artificial intelligence Play We believe right now in our portfolios it is the largest position in our Flagship portfolio Ark why is this because autonomous taxi platforms We Believe globally will deliver uh by 2030 8 to 10 trillion dollars in in revenue from almost zero right now think about that eight to ten trillion dollars in revenue is almost half of the size of the US economy we think that's a global autonomous taxi platform opportunity and we think it's going to submit to natural geographic monopolies Tesla certainly in the United States and perhaps elsewhere so you're going to be surprised at seeing who's going to many people think it's just hardware and software stocks widely advertised but Tesla many people think is an auto stock we don't we think it's much more than that but we think it's one of the biggest AI opportunities out there and you don't think the valuation for Tesla is too high right now what would prompt you to sell uh well right now and we're in print on this Tesla's at roughly two hundred dollars we believe that in five years 2027 it will be a two thousand dollar stock if our research is correct uh importantly autonomous technology takes it there if we're not right on autonomous we still think that Tesla meets our 15 compound annual rate of return hurdle requirement which means it would be at least a four hundred dollar stock just because of the massive shift towards electric vehicles during the next five years of course we know that Elon Musk has been meeting with the top leadership in China what do you make of that visit and how important is this Market well you know Elon has always said he has been so impressed uh by the the political leaders in China he he goes into the cities and the mayors of cities very often are engineers and they know exactly what he's talking about uh so I think he thinks China is very fertile ground uh to become an exporter of Tesla vehicles as it already is so that's very high-end exports which China wants of course it wants EVS to proliferate in China but it's got its Flagship uh byd and many other companies the other reason I think Elon is there is maybe it's a little bit of a peace Mission because uh as as I believe as as my friend and Mentor art Laffer believes uh and as I think Elon believes we're all better if we are communicating and sharing technology and making one another's economies even better than they are now so I think it's a little bit of uh that peace Mission as well what are your thoughts on this when investors say should they invest into AI or should they just go with a standard generic a NASDAQ 100 index uh well we do think AI is going to be very fertile ground we do have to pick you you pick your spots you know we're we're in a moment now where you're seeing a lot of companies slap an a i a i into uh their names and this is where active management really is important uh we think that uh there will be very many successors but the most important I mean Successful companies but the most important ones we think are going to have Visionary management I mentioned Tesla is an example Visionary management Ai and domain expertise that should be a given but perhaps the most important after those is large pools of high quality data that no one else has so proprietary data we mentioned with Tesla it has billions upon billions of miles of real-world driving data so that it is evolving a system that will help people get from point A to point B in the quickest way and the safest way that's really important the safest way possible and you know we can look into whether it's our genomics names with exact sciences and teledoc genomics I call them multiomics as well they have data that no one else has twilio has data uh in terms of the interactions between businesses and consumers that no one else has Zoom is going to be announcing new products I think in early June showcasing some of it it's a product AI products based on on data uipath again in the robotics process automation space this is this is a company that is advising companies now with their own uh language large language models advising them how do you we make you more productive over time uh with new business processes we believe that uh well right now our estimate is that there are 32 trillion dollars globally paid to knowledge workers and that is where we're going to see a lot of productivity gains we may see displacement of some workers but we actually believe that technology is a net job Creator and that those people will go on to better jobs well I I've known for many years in fact I sat on a panel at the world economic forum and it was either 2017 or 18 uh with uh the minister of uh Innovation from China uh China has had Innovation as one of its priorities for a very long time and uh and we think that's the right thing to do um we know that common Prosperity uh suggests to us two things one may be profitability is not going to be as much rewarded in China but the how the vast market in terms of you know tier two tier three four and and other tier cities uh will open up Innovation and make many people's lives uh much better so we think uh what you give up in margin you might get in scale in China but we we do think it's very important that companies understand when they move into China if they want that scale opportunity they'll probably have to give up on margin uh in keeping with common Prosperity exactly do you expect technology and AI to evolve as fast in China as in the west given of course some of the restrictions around in the country um I think this might be one reason Elon Musk and others are there uh they don't want to shut the country down or or they don't want China to be isolated that the give and take has helped us for the last 20 to 25 years um so we're we're hoping that the restrictions do not uh impede Innovation I don't think that uh when at the end of the day that uh the xinji Ping Administration once uh isolationism to limit Innovation my experience in China and talking to people from China is they want to encourage Innovation but they want to make sure that uh it it presents access give it gives access to as many people as possible in the country for how long will the promise around Tech around artificial intelligence be able to offset the reality of higher interest rates also the pressure on the broader economy yeah as we always say Innovation solves problems and AI we believe is going to cause a prob productivity boom uh so to the extent that companies who are having to pay higher interest rates uh on their increasing debt need to find ways to save costs they're going to look for technology to technology to help solve their problems and we think it will and we also think this is really important we also think that AI is highly deflationary in the Good Sense AI training costs are dropping 70 per year that's massive deflation taking place but it will cause a boom in activity associated with artificial intelligence so we believe that companies are going to adopt it we think that chat gbt was that moment and we're thrilled that it happened because finally people are looking at the promise of innovation instead of over the last two years worried about companies investing in Innovation so we think this is going to be a win-win and by the way if we're right on the deflationary ramifications of innovation here then interest rates are going to come down which will be a double benefit for Innovation based strategies
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