저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
달러 기축통화 지위에 대한 위험 경고가 핵심 주제이며, 탈달러화(de-dollarization)는 아직 일어나지 않았지만 위험이 커지고 있다고 주장한다. 중국 위안화는 달러에 페그(peg)되어 있고 통화스와프로 연결되어 있어, 중국-이란 등 직접 위안화 거래도 결국 달러 체계를 거친다고 설명한다. 중국은 WTO 가입 후 위안화 가치를 인위적으로 억눌러 무역 우위를 얻었고, 중앙은행은 약 3.5조 달러의 달러 외환보유고를 가진다. 미국의 달러 무기화가 위험 요인이다. 러시아 외환보유액 동결, 스위프트(SWIFT) 배제, 광범위한 제재로 인해 각국이 달러를 믿을 수 없는 가치저장 수단으로 보기 시작했다고 분석한다. 러시아 올리가르흐 자산 몰수도 같은 맥락으로 제시한다. 미국 재정 문제도 강조한다. 국가부채는 약 32조 달러이며, 향후 3년 내 약 16조 달러가 재조달돼야 한다. 평균 금리 1.7%에서 10년물 금리(3.5~4%)로 재조달되면 이자비용이 두 배로 늘고, 2030년경 연간 이자 지출이 1조 달러를 넘어 연방예산의 1/4 이상이 될 수 있다고 본다. 주·지방정부 연금 부족도 위험 요인이다. 시카고 연금 부족액은 440억 달러이며, 사회보장연금(Social Security)은 2030~2035년 사이 고갈이 예상된다. 연방정부가 결국 보전 책임을 지게 되고, 이는 화폐 발행과 인플레이션, 달러 약세로 이어질 수 있다고 주장한다. 이러한 불확실성으로 투자자들이 달러 자산 집중을 줄이고 분산을 고려할 수 있으며, 미국은 재정·통화정책을 정비해야 기축통화 지위를 유지할 수 있다고 결론짓는다. 구체적인 종목 가격 목표나 1~3개월 단기 시장 전망은 제시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
and the reason why is I see like people on Twitter now breathlessly rambling on about dedolarization and all of this stuff and I think if any of these people would think from first principles the first thing that you would know is that the yuan is pegged to the US dollar and so as long as it's pegged whether you trade through the US dollar or you don't and you directly go to Yuan your index to the US dollar and then you use a dollar swap to convert it into the currency you need so I don't know I think this is kind of like a lot of folks who don't really know what's going on foreign [ venture capitalist chamoth on the all-in podcast sharing his thoughts on the potential risks to the US dollar and how this will significantly affect the market in 2023.
shamath highlights the recent deal between China and Iran which bypasses U.S sanctions by trading in their own currencies he explains that the yuan is pegged to the U.S dollar through currency swaps he also points out that this currency Peg and the incentives for replacing the dollar must be taken into account when discussing the idea of de-dollarization as well as China's current dominance in trade shamoth also believes that China's manipulation of its currency to gain a trading partner status should be considered when analyzing its economic power he talks about the growing trend of D dollarization and the two main reasons behind it he criticizes the US's use of the dollar as a weapon in foreign policy which makes it an unreliable store of value for other countries let's get right into the latest interview with shamath as he gives his market analysis for the next few months and what we can expect heading into the second half of 2023 the reason why China has had so much dominance as a trading partner and the reason why China's central bank has the largest amount of foreign US dollar reserves about three and a half trillion dollars is exactly because of the thing that you want to ignore in order to have this highfaluting intellectual conversation it is pegged to the US dollar and until it is unpegged in a free-floating currency we will never know what the real market clearing price is China has been very effectively able to manipulate this currency since they were brought into the WTO in order to engender that trading partner status they were able to artificially suppress the value of their currency so that exports from China could gain Traction in countries all around the world you have to take into account this currency Peg and you have to ask the question where would the currency be if it wasn't free-floating and then what would the incentives be for folks to replace the dollar and I think that there's a lot of interesting questions there that are worth asking but I think you have to be a little bit more intellectually honest to have the discussion and just for clarity chamothy said they already have these deals with Pakistan and Pakistan you met Pakistan and Russia I think they already have those deals with those two Pakistan and Russia I think D dollarization hasn't happened yet but I think it's a risk and I think there's a bunch of reasons why the risk is growing so first of all we have 32 trillion dollars in debt someone has to finance that debt and the bigger that number gets the more unattractive our debt is because they have to be concerned that we're eventually going to monetize The Debt Pay It Back by printing a bunch of new dollars so that's Point number one is we have these massive deficits and debts number two is that we have I think in the last couple of years really weaponized the dollar so if you look at like what we've done with Ukraine and and Russia we basically seized hundreds of billions of dollars of Russian reserves that were held in dollars we've excluded them from the Swift banking system we've imposed massive sanctions on them and in fact we now have sanctions on a huge number of countries all over the world so we're very sanctioned happy all of which makes these countries view the dollar as an unreliable store of value why would you store your money in something that can be taken away by the US and specifically by the state department so I think this is a major change in the way that we view the dollar the last couple years is we're going to use it as a weapon that again that makes it viewable that's not the first time we've ever done that right we've done sanctions against many different we've done sanctions but as far as I know we've never seized foreign currency reserves and excluded a country from Swift which the banking system so as as an instrument of U.S foreign policy so I mean I could be wrong about that but this was a major event when it happened remember we also did stuff like Seas the the yachts and the the foreign Holdings of Russian oligarchs remember their ill-gotten gains we suddenly decided they were all gone let me tell you we didn't think they were ill-gotten when those Russian billionaires were buying those Yachts or buying New York real estate or London real estate or investing in Facebook or in investing in companies here or buying sports teams or what have you we didn't think they were ill-gotten at the time that they were actually made and spent but we decided subsequently we're just going to seize those things well again if you are a foreign country or a wealthy person in a foreign country are designed to decide where you're going to keep your money you may not want it to be liable to the vagaries of U.S foreign policy so I think all these things do matter and when you're running the kind of debt and deficits we have and you're making the US dollar less attractive you are running a risk shamath points out that the U.S has seized foreign currency reserves and excluded countries from the Swift banking system which can make other countries view the dollar as a liability he emphasizes the potential issues associated with the U.S government's debt and unfunded liabilities particularly with regard to pensions of both state and local governments private institutions and Social Security we have this 32 trillion dollar debt that we're now having to refinance at much higher interest rates I read somewhere that half our government debt so 16 billion is going to come to you and it's gonna have to be refinanced in the next three years the average rate on that debt is 1.7 percent well if you want to refinance it at 10-year rates you're going to be looking at somewhere between three and a half and four percent maybe more so you're looking at a doubling of the interest costs and I also read that by 2030 we're going to have over a trillion dollars of interest expense owed by the US government every year that is money that's not funding anyone's Social Security it's not funding anyone's health care it's not funding one weapons program we want it's just a big it's going to be more than a quarter of our total federal budget look it's we're in trouble and it's uh it's unclear the timing and the path but the arithmetic is pretty simple in addition to the points tax made you guys saw the news the city of Chicago has a 44 billion dollar pension hole that's just the tip of the iceberg on unfunded pension liabilities from both state government city government even private institutions this is hundreds of millions of people worldwide that are expecting money coming to them from institutions that ultimately the federal government of the US is likely going to have to backstop to some degree so that's another huge check that's going to need to be written but the federal government is inevitably going to have to write because we're not going to just let all these people have no money and become starving and Social Security right now is projected to go bankrupt sometime between 2030 and 2035.
so we're gonna have to write a check to cover the hole there the holes need to be filled so the money is not going to just not get paid to the pensioners Social Security is not going to go away just like we saw in France if you start to do that you have Revolutions in the street there's literally bonfires at intersections in France in Paris today because people don't want to wait another two years before they get their pension payments so ultimately that check has to be written when you add up the column of how much money is not on the balance sheet today how much liability is not on the balance sheet today that is ultimately gonna have to get paid out and the US government is going to print money to pay it out it indicates that there is a higher degree of uncertainty on whether or not I'm actually going to get the value back for the bonds that I'm buying in US dollar denominated form or that the US dollar is actually going to be strong enough to cover the cost or it has enough kind of you know or has too much volatility because of this uncertainty jamath predicts that if the U.S debt is refinanced at 10-year rates it could result in a doubling of Interest costs by 2030 the U.S government May owe over a trillion dollars in interest expenses alone each year which is more than a quarter of the total federal budget he argues that while Social Security is unlikely to go away the government will need to print money to pay out these liabilities which could lead to inflation and a weakening of the U.S dollar chamath suggests that this uncertainty may cause people to diversify away from holding only U.S dollars as well as potentially leading to a shift away from the standard currency for global trade he points out the need for the U.S government to address its fiscal and monetary policies to maintain its dominance in global trade what do you think about the latest interview with shamath as well as his take on where the economy is headed in the second half of
Comments 0