저자: GilLuria · 외국인
요약 보기
D.A. Davidson의 Gil Luria는 팔란티어 목표가를 165→175달러로 상향하며 매수 의견을 유지했다. 최근 주가가 고점 대비 약 1/3 하락해 현금흐름 대비 배수가 약 200배에서 약 50배로 낮아졌고, 이는 스노우플레이크·데이터독 등 유사 성장 소프트웨어 대비 같은 배수에 두 배 빠른 성장을 의미한다고 주장했다. 앤스로픽 모델 정부 규제 사례를 들어 특정 모델에 종속되지 않는 팔란티어의 역할이 커질 것이라 평가했다. 다만 AI 관련 데이터 포인트에 따라 변동성이 클 것이며 나스닥·소프트웨어 지수 비중 때문에 팔란티어도 영향을 받는다고 언급했다. 강세 시나리오로 향후 3년간 현금흐름 2~3배 성장과 동일 배수 유지 시 주가 상승을 제시했다.
다듬은 글
Time to delve into Palantir. So, right here on the watch list, we're very excited to have Gil Luria, head of technology research at D.A., with us. Davidson. Gil, you caught everyone's attention right before the 4th of July holiday because you boosted Palantir's ratings. You raised the purchase price from 165 to 175.
And you noted some catalysts, earnings are growing rapidly, and this is the most attractive valuation in a long time. Tell us more details. Yes, Palantir may be the best company in the world. It is at least a top software development company, but we were hesitant to recommend it because it has traded at very high valuations in the past.
Let's say a year ago it was trading at a price 200 times its cash flow. But then, a year and a year later, people moved on to other things, and suddenly the stock of a company that is doubling its cash flow this year has fallen by about a third, and now we're only trading at a price that's 50 times cash flow.
That's still a lot, but it's more similar to other fast-growing software companies like Snowflake, Datadog, CrowdStrike, Shopify, which trade at a similar multiple, but Palantir is growing twice as fast. So we thought it was time. We did a lot of work talking to their customers, their partners, spending time with the company, and concluded that their recent success should continue.
They add a lot of value to their customers by providing AI capabilities , and their customers recommend them to other customers. They have a lot of inbound interest in Palantir projects and products, and they are implementing them very well . So it's a great time, and the 4th of July was just a great occasion because it's a great American company that does a lot for our safety.
Yes, you said it was a 250th anniversary gift. You mentioned that it's trading on par with some other software companies like Snowflake and Datadog, um, for you, these fast-growing names, but it's growing twice as fast. That's what you just said. Um, and that's one of the reasons you like that name.
If you look at the estimates for 2026 and 2027, they have also been revised upwards , right? So do you think this growth, which is now double what you were talking about, can it continue? Well, Alex Karp just said that they can deliver probably 50 to 70% recurring growth rate over the next 3 years. So, they are creating a company to enable this growth, and based on the interest in their product and the direction of AI development, they are well positioned to do so.
Because I think there was a wave in the first half of the year where we thought, "Wait a second, Anthropic and OpenAI can do all this. " And then a few things happened that made us realize, "No, what you really need is someone like Palantir to come into the company and build a solution that can work on any model." Because if you build directly on the anthropic model, let's say you started building your business on the anthropic fable model, well, a few weeks ago the government discontinued that model.
And then the company withdrew the model from the market. What would happen to a company that built its solution based on the anthropic model? So now companies know, "No, we need someone like Palantir, and they'll build a solution where if something happens, they can replace it with an OpenAI model or even an open source model, which is even better because it'll be even more efficient." So Palantir's role in this market has not only been important, and they're doing well, it's becoming increasingly important.
Yes, because that's exactly what you said. Government restrictions on Anthropic could mean more validation for a name like Palantir, right? How would you summarize it briefly? We are all trying to figure out how to use AI, and most companies are in the early stages, just trying things out to see what will work.
Palantir clients are already using AI to drive results. So they know that if they bring in Palantir, they can figure out what kind of impact they can have on the business , and implement the right AI tool to get those results. This requires a lot of work that many traditional packaged software companies cannot do because...
They don't have the professional maintenance capabilities. These four engineers working at Palantir are the secret to how they can go into a company and figure out why the company needs AI, and then implement it and help the company sustain it. So these are things that are very unique to Palantir. So Alex Karp, as you mentioned, talked about the growth potential over the next few years.
You called it the best promotion or at least the best name for the group overall. And he really pointed out how they should really be different from Open AI and Anthropic. Will these IPOs, for example, affect how Palantir might behave? You know, we already got the SpaceX IPO, and I'm just thinking about the big IPO market.
Could something like an Open AI or Anthropic IPO change your narrative or perhaps how money moves for stocks? Well, these IPOs are going to create quite a bit of turmoil throughout the market because these companies are going to raise a lot of capital at a very high valuation, and it's going to... come from somewhere .
But I would argue that Palantir is probably the last place this would come from. It will be from all the other technologies, from the semi-industrial sector, from all the other ways that investors have tried to invest in AI development, because OpenAI and Anthropic will represent pure AI plays. And so they should generate a lot of interest, especially if they continue to make such progress.
These two companies are growing at an unprecedented rate and to an unprecedented size. So they will take a lot of oxygen out of the room when they go public, but it will help Palantir because it will be a lot of resources that can be directed towards implementing Palantir solutions. So, with the energy of the Palantir protagonist, that's what you called it in the note.
Technology seems to be back, doesn't it? I know we had some ups and downs this year when it came to technology. Does she continue to be a winner, or does she really need technology to participate? And do you expect volatility for Palantir and/or technology through the end of this year? Uh, we expect a lot more volatility for no other reason than because every AI data point makes people rethink cycle lengths, how many more data centers are we going to build, are we going to need that many semiconductors, are we going to need that many memory?
So, there will be huge volatility. And unfortunately for Palantir, they fall into this trap because they're in the indexes, they're a pretty big component of the Nasdaq, they're a pretty big component of the software index. And so they get, um, a lot of volatility in the final share because of these movements.
But realistically speaking, Palantir was, in your opinion, a character energy. That is, their customers love them. They win. They help their customers win, and that fuels itself, and that allows them to not come out with a lot of exit sales. They receive incoming calls, and then they can take those incoming calls and selectively choose which customers to reach.
take it upon yourself and help them. So, victory begets victory, and that's exactly what's happening with Palantir right now. Yeah, and just quickly, what's your bullish scenario on that? I mean, I know you put 175. It's down from 207, but if you look at, say, a 3-year chart, as I was pointing out, I mean, when we think about this name 3 years ago, it just shows the difference.
It was at $13. Um, what's your bullish scenario on this stock? How high can it really go? Well, they're talking about doubling or tripling their cash flow over the next 3 years, and if they're still doing that in 3 years and the multiplier is the same, that's how much the stock will go up . Good. Gil Luria, thank you.
Head of Technology Research at D.A. Davidson. I'm glad we were able to talk to you today. Thank you.
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