저자: Kevin · 외국인
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시장 하락과 경기침체 지표(장단기 금리 역전 해소, 실질 민간투자 마이너스, 소비자 대출 연체율 상승, ISM 제조업·건설지출 부진) 누적을 근거로, 경기침체가 한 번의 조정으로 촉발될 수 있다고 봄. 엔비디아 등 AI 서버 마진 부진, 중국 제조업 둔화와 유럽·미국 제조업 경쟁력 약화를 우려. 9~10월 채권 유리·주식 불리 계절성과 선거 불확실성을 언급하며 현금·채권 비중 확대를 시사하고, 향후 6~8주는 조정 시 매수 기회일 수 있으나 경기침체 신호가 나오면 매수를 재고해야 한다고 함. 본인의 방어 성향 베어 스케일을 3.3에서 3.1로 낮춤.
다듬은 글
well this is an unexpected State of Affairs the market is falling you've got Bitcoin down to my 575 58 line almost perfectly this morning the nasdaq's down over 2.2% nvidia's down 12% since it reported earnings down just 7% on the day today but that is still a huge number what is going on today at the same time as we've got oil down 3.9 to 4.3% you've got yields down about six basis points my goodness this is not the week I was expecting to come back to especially since I just got back from a really cool vacation actually at the Kalahari Resort I I wasn't expecting this but I have to say we we went in with kind of low expectations but this was one of the funnest places ever here's Jack on this uh this rope course with me I mean the these places are fun uh so we had a really good time there # notsponsored but uh what's going on with the market right now let's talk about that because now Tom Lee is also turning bearish we'll talk about Tom Lee in just a moment but I want to go through some of the recession indicators that we've been building up and I want to be very clear about my positioning and I've made this positioning very clear since about June 10th June 11th I believe that we're one market correction away from a recession this doesn't mean I'm convinced we're going to go into a recession it just means if we have a really bad stretch of Market where maybe we have like two or three months of red I think we're so close to a recession that the negative wealth effect of people seeing their stock accounts basically lose value and then therefore they spend less money they go on less Vacations or whatever that will compress consumers enough to the point where then the layoff cycle begins and then we get the self-fulfilling consumer-led recession I'm not looking forward to that I think everything gets harder in uh in in society and business and startups and everything when that happens but look at some of the indicators we have we have quite a few so I'm going to rush through them because you've heard a lot of these individually before but it's nice to put them all together sometimes too we know we've got the S rule that's broken the 0 five level which has consistently told us a recession was either here or on its way there have been very few cases where it hasn't been accurate uh and one of the cases for example where it wasn't accurate was frankly after a recession that happened right before that you had sort of a double dip session the uh 102 we're essentially about to un invert on the 102 which is usually the moment a recession begins so when you get this sort of uninversity of 1990 it's usually coming out of the inversion which is when you're closest to the recession it's not actually the inversion itself you could see the inversion here in ' 89 the depth of the inversion in March of' o02 the depth of the inversion in November of 2006 there was still time there uh just like our depth was around June of 2023 June July of 2023 we're now at that uninversity Is This Real gross private domestic investment growth that is like the biggest nasty mouthful ever and it's really hard to track on a chart because they only update quarterly but I've been watching the Atlanta fed and they show that it's negative last read about a week ago was - 2.4% now it's about .1 the magnitude of negativity I didn't notice was as big of a deal though just that it was negative so when Real gross domestic private investment growth goes negative it's usually a sign of pessimism by businesses and households you also have the delinquency rate on Consumer loans well not as high as what we had in 2005 higher than anywhere before the pandemic same thing goes for credit card loans well above where we were before the pandemic look at architectural Billings which basically is sort of a leading indicator Ator of hey you know they say it's a 9 to 12 month leading indicator but they say readings under 50 is contractionary and we've been under 50 uh for quite a while now uh sitting here probably for about a year under 50 at this point and a lot of folks are concerned that this is a tell yet just another indicator that we're knocking on the door of a recession look at ISM Manufacturing it really went negative in about December of 22 it never actually went into expansion with the exception of one moment here in March of 2024 and it's already right back to negative which isn't great then you look at us construction spending right back to negative we can see how when we put all this together it's just it's icky right like I don't want to be bearish or come across as negative I'm just saying I think there are frustrations building that can get worse if we drive further towards a market correction look at just some of the frustration that we're seeing amongst Executives look at Dell for example I wrote this on X shocking lack of professionalism by Dell's senior vice president and CEO as well as the CFO when pressed on AI related margins that's because Dell is known for doing server racks as part of their infrastructure solutions group uh and as part of that they do uh AI server racks well the AI server racks are expected to lose money because they have to give big discounts to cloud service providers like The Meta Google uh Amazon to actually get the business because it's so it's such a competitive business so rather than having their usual 11% margins they might actually be negative on AI related uh build outs basically for Server Rex which is bad but take a look at this an analyst here asks hey why are AI server revenues declining quarter over and why is your backlog flat is it because of Blackwell delays like what's going on why why are we seeing bad numbers is it because you suck or is this like an industrywide issue and some of the responses you're getting here are actually more telling because of the tone and attitude you're getting from the executive staff look at this Robert Williams all right you are all killing me on the multiple questions here's another one an analyst asked multiple questions about artificial in elligence AI server margins and the flat Q over Q backlog this is another analyst right here was wsy here you have Ben because they keep punting the question like the executives are getting frustrated because they keep getting the same answer because they're refusing to answer the question or they keep getting the same question right look at this one so here Ben basically asked the same question again that somebody else asked and was unanswered and the response they get is from the CEO that was the greatest one question at a time of five I've seen Rob replies that was classic Ben in other like they're literally making fun of the analyst and then they go on to still yet not answer the analyst questions look at the frustration here here's another one the tone is just ugly that's what's in front of us and I think we've said each of the last several calls and we'll say it again in this call the margins selling to Enterprises are better than the margins selling to our largest customers the cloud service providers again that frustration over yeah the AI margins just ain't that great right and unfortunately AI is the thing that's sort of like propping things up right now it's probably one of the reasons we didn't go into a recession yet so those things make me nervous now you have to add what's happening in China and which is one of the reasons I think markets are down today Manufacturing in China fell to a six-month low in August which is leading to some of the oil declines we're seeing which is going to be great for gas for your cars or otherwise but I really want you to think for a moment what does this mean well it means that we have a Labor Day sale ending this Friday and we just had a trade just this morning up 69% I want you to see how I send these alerts this morning 6:40 a.m.
Tesla put I send out the ticker I send out why I'm sending uh I'm sending what what I'm seeing uh and then 701 so 21 minute trade stopped out up 69 9% those are the kind of alerts my goal is to always send obviously I can't guarantee they're always going to be profitable but my goal is when I see a trend I send it to you if you want those Trends we have uh the price increasing this Friday and uh yeah this weekend I didn't really pitch or do much at all because I was just playing with the kids so sorry about that we had a fantastic time by the way really really enjoyable time at Kalahari it's kind of like a cruise ship on land which is really cool but anyway I want you to think about this the problem with China's manufacturing slowing down is yes oil prices go down which is good we expect OPEC production to pick up in October fantastic but the problem is when Chinese manufacturers are starting to go broke as The Economist has told us manufacturers may start dumping Chinese manufacturing prices leading to manufacturing disinflation or straight up deflation this is fantastic for companies that manufacture in China like Tesla the bulk of Tesla's car manufacturing is in China however it makes every Factory that isn't in China much less competitive so the US version of Tesla Texas or Fremont much less uh you know much less productive basically uh look at Volkswagen for the first time in I think their 87y year history planning potential shutdowns of their factories that's bad that leads to an increase of joblessness potentially in America as American manufacturers are not competitive European manufactur as they don't become competitive against the freaking out Chinese manufacturers and so what do you end up having a lot of joblessness what you're basically doing is you're killing jobs in America and Europe and you're trying to give jobs to China where it's cheaper to manufacture although those jobs will pay a lot less it's not great now I understand September and October are seasonably very volatile they're usually very good for bonds which is something I've been a big proponent of for a while uh really since about July uh and not so good for stocks of course we are also going into the election which is usually a terrible time uh for for stocks going right into an election and usually ABS a recession we recover right after the election this is why I personally like the idea of more cash more bonds and go into the election evaluate how data comes in over the next few months obviously we got jobs data coming again this week but I don't think that's very useful I don't think it's a leading indicator I think it's a lagging indicator but once you start getting this this unemployment cycle the lack of investment the unemployment cycle that's when things just rapidly hit a wall and I'm worried that this Chinese manufacturing slowdown is going to hit us as well keep in mind we just got manufacturing data and it wasn't good ISM Manufacturing missed again on manufacturing so manufacturing came in slower than expected and prices paid came in higher than expected which is the worst of both scenarios and construction spending came in at negative .3 versus .1% positive expected which is bad so I actually moved myself on the bare bull scale down to a 3.1 versus a 3.3 that I was just a few days ago so I've been sort of bobbing around between 2 and 1/2 and 3 and 1/2 for about the last month and it's not because I want to be a bear it's just because of what the data is showing and so it's kind of interesting that now all of a sudden you've got Mr Tom Lee who's also like yeah the next seven to eight weeks might suck I agree I actually think the next 7 to8 weeks will be a buy the dip opportunity if we don't indicate a recession but if we indicate a recession right before the election I don't know that you want to even buy that dip so obviously that's where we're going to listen in and stay tuned and pay attention but let's listen to just a minute of this here this is one of those where investors need to be cautious but the back of their minds no this is a strong Market how far down on 10% I think that 7 to 10 is possibility and we've already had two 7% Corrections this year so it's kind of it's been testing investors patience but I I think you know I think it should we should expect turbulence there you go should expect turbulence 7 to 10% correction he doesn't think a 2% drop is worthy of buying wait for that at least 5% drop uh I don't disagree with him here I actually think going into an election that's probably a very very easy call to make that you're going to have volatility going into the election people and especially the stock market absolutely hate uncertainty so very very common very very normal uh the question is will the pain of the next six weeks push us into a recession again because of the negative wealth effect of the market selling off leading to worse earnings for Q3 and in October when we report Q3 earnings if we get companies that are freaking out we could actually accelerate the downturn in markets and truly push us into a recession anyway I try to be my I do my best to be balanced out here really appreciate all of you do keep in mind we're now offering licensed Financial advice This Is wealth planning over at stock c.com uh we expect to start that October 1st so right now we're really just Gathering an interest list if you want to learn more about the fees and what's involved go to stock act.com but I want to be very clear here this is designed to be a Consulting business yes we can custody your assets with our partner Bank like JP Morgan we're not trying to say oh we're going to beat your uh beat the market if you invest with us or whatever this isn't a fund it's literally having a consultant a financial adviser on your team that looks at your situation your credit score your wealth your assets your real estate says how can we help you have more stable long-term wealth whether that's by 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