저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2023년 말 시장 약세는 실패한 돌파, 기관의 연말 수익실현 때문이라고 설명. 경기침체 우려는 제조업이 아니라 금리·정책(Fed 긴축, 정부 지출 축소)에 따른 것으로 보며, 2024년 Fed 인하 및 과긴축 리스크 존재를 언급. 고용지표가 2024년 최대 우려. 종목으로 칩주(TSMC, ASML, Nvidia, AMD, Intel), TradeDesk, 주택관련주(Lowe's, Home Depot, Enphase, SolarEdge), Rivian(채권 상승, 2024 흑자 전환 가능성), Palantir 언급. 대부분 유료 강의 홍보가 섞여 있음.
다듬은 글
Are you ready for a very detailed video that includes stock picks, the possibility of an impending recession and its catalysts , plus where the heck was Kevin yesterday? Watch this video. But remember, the Gold course will have a big price change this New Year. So, if you want a tax deduction from someone who invests and manages over $100 million , that's me.
Go to meetkevin.com or click the link below. Check out the Gold course. I will teach you how not to pay taxes in the United States. How to generate wealth by investing in stocks , real estate, entrepreneurship, productivity; only real data and facts about how to build your wealth. Learn all that in the Gold course.
It comes with lifetime access . Tomorrow we'll publish new lessons and you'll get lifetime access to the live streams for course members. Let's begin with the update. What the hell happened yesterday? And we have a lot to talk about in this video, from upcoming catalysts to my stock picks for 2024. I'll be breaking them down in this video, along with the looming recession according to manufacturing, and I'll also be explaining not only what happened in the stock market yesterday, but frankly, where the heck was Kevin yesterday.
Yes. Yes, I know. Yesterday, I resumed live streaming the market opening, and for the first time since we returned, I didn't do one yesterday. I posted a small notice that I would n't do it and I apologize for that. I feel bad about that. This is what happened to me quickly. Year-end audit preparation.
Okay, they're auditing us. Not fiscally, it's like for HouseHack, having a startup and raising money, I have to have everything perfect. I was up until 3 or 4 in the morning, and then I decided, " Okay, I could sleep for an hour or two and ruin the day, or I could, unfortunately, not do the live streams and have an amazing time with Mr.
Max," which I was fortunate enough to be able to do. I took that day to spend time with my family, so I apologize for not being there. Now, we will also talk about what happened in the stock market. I'll also explain why I was in Utah in the first place . It wasn't actually to go skiing. It was to meet with the seller of a $16 million deal.
An agreement that is not necessarily in Utah. But I went there because we were negotiating a deal and I wanted to close it. So I decided, you know what? The easiest way to close a deal, in my opinion, is in person with someone. I love closing deals. This , by the way, is Max learning to ski and then Max dead after skiing.
I was very tired. But yes, I do believe a lot in face-to- face interaction. We have a ton of great interviews lined up for the channel in 2024. 2024 is going to be amazing. We have an excellent foundation, but this is just a tip for everyone. If you're having trouble closing a deal and , you know, you're feeling frustrated because someone doesn't understand your point of view or what's going on.
Sometimes it's a matter of meeting people in person to understand the emotion, the sincerity, and the reactions you get from what you say. It's truly amazing. If you're with someone in person and you say something, you might not realize over the phone, text message, or email—certainly not in the latter two—that something you say bothers them.
Whereas, when you're in person, you can discover why someone feels a certain way and structure a deal. So, House Hack got a $16 million deal that we believe we got for about $2 or $3 million below its value. Brutal treatment. Multifamily. By the way, all the details are on househackomes.com, House Hack's YouTube channel if you want to check it out, because I was able to drop everything and fly there the next day to finalize the deal.
And we are in negotiations. I'm fed up with this back and forth. I say, "Hey, can I speak directly to the seller?" And the agent replies, "Yeah, this is unusual, but it's okay. How do you want to do it? I'll meet with them. Where are they? Done. I'll be there. It's powerful. Anyway, so again, those updates are on the House Hack Homes YouTube channel.
I'll put it in a link at the top of the description. So, that's why I wasn't around yesterday. I had to negotiate a deal. Then, I had a lot of audit work to do. Some of the staff aren't in the office, and I thought, do I want to be working myself to death helping Max learn to ski, or do I want to take the vacation here and spend time with Max and Jack?
That's what I decided to do. So, a long explanation, but a small update. It sets a good foundation for 2024. Okay. So, what happened in the stock market yesterday while I was gone? Well, in my opinion, two things happened. Number one, we didn't get the breakouts. Okay , actually, we had like, failed breakouts.
In fact, Tesla is the perfect example of a failed breakout that We had that here. I mentioned on Thursday's market open livestream that we really need a full candle above 258 to confirm a breakout in Tesla. The moment it became clear that we weren't going to get a full candle above 258, it plummeted.
I mean, it went straight to 248. That's no surprise. You see, when we closed at 263 or whatever it was on the average candles, you could see that it's like a little spike above that critical threshold right there. That's not enough for confirmation. You can't rely on one-minute candles to assume you have confirmation.
So, of course, when that died, that was it for Tesla. You could see that pain. Look how we were briefly up here at 260. Boom. Once we failed, we went straight through. A very, very critical intersection here. Now, we're not just having failed breakouts in things like Tesla or Nvidia trying to break above 500, which they couldn't make, or Apple trying to break above 200.
Not only are we seeing these failed breakouts, but as the breakouts fail, guess what happens? Two things. Number one, institutions start saying, you know what? It's time to take some profits. Because guess what, folks ? And this is the misalignment of much of the mainstream financial world . They don't necessarily care what's 100% best for everyone.
They want their bonuses, and that's fine. It's just the way the system is structured. Anyone watching this who gets a year-end trading performance bonus, good for you. That's just how the system works. But let's be real. If you took profits on Tesla toward the end of the year because of some of the positions you took in 2023, you want to realize them before the year is out.
That way, when the January review comes around and the boss comes in and says, "Okay, how did everyone perform, and how does that performance compare to the benchmark indices, you know, like the S&P 500?" "Well, then you get a bigger bonus if you took some profits. If you lose all your profits as you approach the end of the year, like in the last couple of days, well, your profits, your, uh, your profits go down, which means your bonus goes down.
So, there's a lot of that, but there's also the right to brag. When you're a fund manager, you want to be able to brag. Oh yeah, we beat those ETFs and we beat that benchmark and we beat this and that. Like me, running an actively managed ETF. I get it. Personally, I just don't care because I run an ETF for myself, and I think in the future everyone should be able to have their own ETF because of the incredible tax benefits of one.
It's like a 1031 swap of stocks . Man, imagine if you were a trader and you could do that. How cool would that be? Maybe someday. But anyway, even if you're a long-term investor, it would be amazing to be able to do a 1031 with stocks. It would be insane. So So, well , uh, that's one reason. Then , failed breakouts and then this institutional profit-taking to increase, uh, probably the year-end performance-based payout and bragging rights for the institutions.
Those are very important reasons for the sell-off we saw as we approached year-end. My opinion. I don't really think it was so much tax loss collection, as 2023 was obviously a very good year. So, uh, what else? Well, now we need to understand , okay, well, what's next? What about the catalysts? I mean , that's what happened at the end of the trading days here, but what about the catalysts going forward?
And what about my stock picks going forward? We'll look at my stock picks in a moment, but I just want to remind you of some of these, uh, catalysts, which I tell you, I love so much e-hack.e-hack.com because I was able to, literally, I just went right now as I'm recording this video, just I went into incognito mode, switched to e-hack.com, scrolled down to my, uh, catalysts, and look.
Oh, there it is. Now I can just check it every day. It's going to be a busy week. You know, on the third, once we're all really settled back in the office, we're going to get the JOLTS. We're going to get the FOMC. We're going to get the ISM paid prices . Okay, the Institute for Supply Management, uh, the ADP report, the jobs report.
The following week we get the month-by-month core CPI, all the CPI numbers come out. Those are going to be pretty big catalysts. But another thing you should be aware of, uh, what's with all this recession fear? So I wrote quite a bit here on E-Hack about, uh, what's going on with, uh, some comments from HSBC, uh, about what's happening in Europe.
But one of the main issues I want to focus on is that I keep hearing people talking about this Fear, this dread, this uncertainty, this doubt that we're going into a recession because manufacturing is falling. And what I decided to do was: well, let's look at history and see how many recessions have actually been triggered by a manufacturing downturn.
And the reason I want to do that is I want to see if it's manufacturing that fails first or if manufacturing is reacting to a weak economy. Right? In other words, if we have weak manufacturing numbers now, does that mean we're going into a recession or is it a sign of some other kind of stress? Exactly.
So, here's a rundown of recessions from 1937 to today. Are you ready for this? The 1937 recession was caused by fiscal debt , like, a lack of growth in fiscal debt. I mean, the government being a little more responsible with its spending and fighting inflation. So, what causes the recession, then? The government and the Fed.
Look at what we have today. You have the Fed preparing to lower rates and support The economy. And the government never stopped spending money. In fact, during this last cycle, they're the reason we didn't go into a recession. And I'm not trying to be political. I'm just saying that when you just spend money like crazy on the Inflation Reduction Act , the Chips Act, uh, you know, whatever.
Uh, I mean, a lot of the other, uh, policies that were implemented as well, and the loose interpretations of laws that were passed. This spending supports GDP. We know that. Good. So what else? Uh, oh. So when you reverse that, you could have a recession, right? Uh, 1945, massive cuts in government spending.
Yeah. Massive cuts in government spending. Not good. That could lead to a recession. Again, it's the opposite of today. And I 'm not here to say that this time is different. I'm here to tell you when things are the same. And when they rhyme? And when they're just the complete opposite, right? Uh, 1948, postwar inflation due to accumulated savings and demand, leading to an inflationary explosion from 3.3% to 11.6%.
Whoa, that sounds familiar. I wrote mild recession after policymakers responded late. That, uh, that also sounds somewhat familiar. Responding late, right? Uh, good. Worth pointing out. Then you have the wasteful government spending. Remember, we 're seeing an increase in government spending today. Exactly.
And the expansion of debt. 1957 recession, Fed-induced tightening. 1960, uh, diminished US demand due to globalization. Basically, we're going to buy Chinese stuff instead of American stuff. Uh, 1969, debt inflation, Fed. '73, oil embargo, inflation, Fed. '80, Fed and inflation. '82, Fed and inflation.
'90, oil price shock, inflation. 2001 , dot-com bubble. 2007, the housing bubble. 2020, COVID. So what I wrote is based on history, and neither of these were manufacturing-driven. Not one of them. Not a single one was manufacturing-led. The point is, yes, manufacturing responds to higher interest rates, a weaker economy, a slowing level of growth .
Yes, manufacturing responds to that. But did that cause a recession? No. It was always something else. Fighting inflation, the Fed being too tight, the government cutting spending. Now, is the government cutting spending, or is it expected to do so in 2024? No. Is the Fed expected to, uh, loosen in 2024?
Yes. Is it possible that they won't loosen enough or fast enough, and we'll still have an over- tightening problem? Yes. Does that mean there's still a risk of recession? Yes. Will it be manufacturing-driven? No. In fact, when, uh, when I finished negotiating that deal in $16 million for House Hack, which, remember, you should check out on the House Hack YouTube channel to learn more about.
Uh, I met with some bankers and traders from JPMorgan Chase, and they actually said to me, "What are your thoughts on a recession in 2024?" "And they said, 'Well, 50%.' I said, 'Oh, that's higher than I thought.'" Do you think the Fed won't cut rates? Do you think there will be a second wave of inflation?
"No. There isn't a second wave of inflation; too much damage has already been done. So it's definitely still there. By the way, if you want to learn how I do all these businesses—whether it's entrepreneurship, building wealth through real estate, building wealth through stocks, understanding tax benefits, how to avoid paying taxes in the United States, and more— check out the Gold course.
It's the first link down here. There's a massive price expiration coming with the New Year, so I really want you to consider checking it out . It's the best content I've ever created. Everything is filmed, or was filmed, and is still being filmed through the end of 2023. So, it's all Q4 content. Every single lesson there is Q4 content.
There isn't a single piece of old material in there . I'm not saying the old stuff isn't good; I'm just saying it's been updated for today. So, if you want to buy your first home, buy a rental property, minimize the taxes you pay, be an entrepreneur, create LLCs, learn about insurance, learn about systems, and..." Procedures, checklist efficiency—how do I manage to do everything I do, folks?
The Gold Course. It comes with lifetime access to the live streams. It's really, really good. And I think you'll love it. And I keep adding new content to it. I think sometimes that's what people forget, that I don't just create the content and leave it there forever. I add content to it. And the fact is, every day we do a live stream for course members, so you get more content there too.
I've always said I'll stop doing the live streams for course members with about six months' notice or whatever. It's been six years since I said that, and now I think I'm not going anywhere. They're so much fun. I love the live streams for course members. So I have no expectations of stopping them. And you get lifetime access not only to the entire archive from 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023—everything—but also to the lessons from here on out.
It's insane. It's really, really... Really good. So, you get all of that in one course, the Gold Course. So, check it out. Obviously, if you already have it and want to bundle it, email us at staffmek.com. We'll get back to you here before New Year's Eve. So, go ahead and do that. Okay, that's good to know in terms of recession.
But what other issues are we facing? Well, one that keeps popping up is that people are worried about the Cleveland Fed's "nowcast" for inflation, which is currently at 0.33% for core month-over-month. Not great. But what I found really interesting is that I just typed "Nowcast" into X, basically Twitter.
That screenshot is way too wide. So let's do it this way. And look at this. Everyone's been panicking about the Nowcast for a while now. Here's a Nowcast estimate that someone posted in May 2023. I don't want to spoil the fun, but we've gone from a "D" as the Nowcast estimates. to 43 basis points, which is an acceleration of the core CPI.
You know, that was in May. That ended up not happening. Cleveland Fed inflation report, this is the report from April 11. Oh no, it could be 45 basis points. Oh, no. Uh, here's another one. Oh, my navigation almost covered that one. Oh, there it is. Uh, here's another one . Uh, the core CPI Nowcast at 38 in all this from September 23 complaining about the Nowcast.
Then you have, here's somebody using some of the Nowcast data. You have Nowcast data here from a...and they were using that in May. Here's one in August talking about how high the Nowcast inflation is. Oh, it could be a tricky CPI reading because the Nowcast is accelerating. That one's from July. Uh, at the end of March the Nowcast was at 6.8%.
Oh, no. Checking inflation. The Nowcast doesn't expect the year-over-year CPI figure to rise in its next Reading. Whatever . So, the point is, or sorry, they wrote "not," but they meant "Nowcast." And that's 46 basis points. That was in January 2023. So the point is, I get emails like this, okay? And that's what prompted this.
Do you ever check the inflation Nowcast? It has the CPI coming up to 3.3 for December. This is the highest point in three months. Could this scare the markets, blah, blah, blah, or you know , whatever? And so I really appreciated this person sending me this email because it motivated me to look a little bit into the Nowcast history.
I thought, "Okay, I'm not going to worry about that." I'm going to wait until the CPI report and then compare that 3, 6, and 12-month trend with all the other CPI reports and incorporate the fact that when we study the earnings calls every day on the members' live stream, there's no inflation left. "I mean, almost everything is in deflation." Again, and I always say this, but I want to be clear, with the exception of ski resorts and aviation, those two sectors have massive supply problems.
There isn't enough supply of ski lifts. You don't have enough, frankly, you don't have enough snow right now in the United States. Uh, 2023 took it all. Well, early 2023 took it all. You know, it snowed until May or July. How stupid was that? And then, with aviation, oh my God, after that, the aviation industry exploded.
Everyone wants a plane. It's, it's crazy. And well, anyway , so now what? Okay. Well, that's the current forecast. We already talked about recessions in manufacturing. We already talked about why we had a bit of a weak finish there. So, what do we really need to worry about going into 2024? Well, probably the Fed not responding quickly enough to weakening jobs data.
I'm very concerned that the Employment figures are too low and we end up creating a self-inflicted recession. In fact, I just sent out an email to job seekers. I'll give you the terms I put in it. And I want to be clear, I think I offer great employee benefits. But I just ask that when people want to work for me—and almost everyone does—they come to work in person because we have to work together on a startup.
I can't stand this remote nonsense. And you know, it's almost like getting paid not to work. Come on, man. I know that's not true for everyone, but I don't know . Anyway, so I posted this ad. I said, "Submit your resume ." Does anyone know someone looking for a $250,000-a-year software career with benefits and eventual stock options?
A fintech company hoping to grow from small to a multi-million dollar valuation. I need one more. AI helps, but we can teach it. We're really looking for a full-stack developer capable of, you know, coding with React. It has to be in person, and we'll even pay your Relocating out of Ventura, California.
And the people here, it's funny. People say, "Ew, Ventura? Why would I move to California?" It's a septic tank. I don't know, maybe Ventura is the best-kept secret, or one of them. But Ventura is amazing. And people who move here say, "Dude, I didn't know California was like this, specifically Ventura or parts of California like San Diego or Santa Barbara." "These aren't secrets, are they?
Montecito, Palo Alto, San Luis Obispo. A lot of people say, 'Wow, I didn't know California was so amazing.'" "There's a reason people pay these prices to live here. Orange County, Irvine, those are other examples." Tula Vista is up there. Well, in there, maybe not up there, but in there. Anyway, it's fine.
So, we're seeing a lot of job applications and we think that's great. Does this mean we offer a highly desirable position, or is it that there are more people in need and fewer jobs available? Don't know. We'll see with the data from the JOLTS report and, obviously, with this week's employment data.
Those will be very, very important datasets. I cannot overemphasize how ridiculously stupid it is to defend deflation . If you want deflation, you're asking for a depression. The Fed knows it . And now you might say, "But we're definitely heading towards deflation," right? So, you know, the Fed is about to turn on the money printing press again.
Now, if you argue, well, we're going to have a second wave of inflation. Yes, that's possible. So we're doomed in terms of stagflation, right? Because then the economy sucks, employment goes to the dogs, and you have inflation. But literally, every time I ask someone to show me where the inflation is, they can't.
They say, "Well, it's just my opinion." That's the best answer I get, you know? I mean, you already know this. We broadcast live the opening of the stock market every day. The market opens at 5, well, except for yesterday, at 5:25 a.m. And I do my best to add value every day, which is amazing. I hope you're there.
But anyway, I ask people daily, please show me the inflation. It's not arriving. So , when we see companies' earnings calls, it 's obviously more important, but it's pretty crazy. Alright. Now that we've put that aside, what else is there to talk about? I mean , sure, we expect to see more inventory between the first and second quarters in the real estate sector, but you know what I see?
I see many salespeople saying, "Oh, we're not going to sell." "We're just going to refinance." Because some of them have interest rates of seven or eight percent. I do n't think they'll be able to refinance. So I think there will be a lot of amazing real estate deals in the first and second quarters.
We got a lot of good deals here in the fourth quarter. We think we really nailed it with House Hack. Again, go to the House Hack Homes YouTube channel. I'll put the link below under the Gold Course presentation , because seriously, the Gold Course is worth it. It's 100% safe. If you want a tax deduction going into 2024 and only want the best from someone who manages over $100 million , the link to the Gold course is below next to the House Hack YouTube link.
Okay, but now we need to talk about stock selections. What about stock picks? Well, I wrote this on e-hack and wanted to add a little more clarity here on YouTube. We can talk about some of these things much better on YouTube. So, first of all, I still think chips are a gamble. Look, at the end of 2022, we were right .
We went all in on chips at the end of '22. We didn't know we'd have the AI boom, which is crazy, but I think 2024 will be the year of profits. In other words, companies have to demonstrate that they can increase their profits. So the stocks we're looking to see grow earnings definitely won't be those of Nike, Best Buy, Walmart, Target, or Costco.
Those are basic and discretionary products. I don't really think they'll do well. In fact, I think those companies are more likely to advertise. Think about it for a moment. Companies that fail to meet their sales targets advertise more in an attempt to achieve them. And that's why TradeDesk is a potential beneficiary of this, so they can show growth to their investors again.
So we still like TradeDesk. We also, obviously, continue to rely on TSMC, ASML, Nvidia, AMD; those are somewhat generic. Intel, right? And so on. But also green energy and construction. If the real estate sector continues to avoid a recession, we are big fans of Lowe's, Home Depot, Enphase, Solar Edge , basically companies like Restoration Hardware, companies that would probably or hopefully benefit from new spending by homeowners, whether by refinancing or acquiring debt through lines of credit or whatever.
I saw that someone left a comment. They said, "Oh, Kevin thinks people are going to refinance their homes to get $30,000 of equity just because they've paid some principal in the last three years that they haven't used yet." "You don't understand the point, buddy." You don't have to refinance your entire loan.
You need to wake up the credit lines. The United States is built on debt. Lines of credit are like literal credit cards. Delicious, delicious credit cards. Imagine going to a local credit union desperate for your business and being told, "Oh, it looks like you have some equity in your home that you've accumulated over the past few years.
How about one of these right here? Let's focus a little bit on: how about one of these?" A JP Morgan card, huh? Do you want one? What kind would you like? Except it's for your house. So each time you go, you can take money out of your home at an interest rate that's a fraction of a credit card rate, and depending on what you spend it on, it 's potentially tax-deductible.
That got a little more complicated after Trump's 2017 tax cut plan. Debt now tracks what you invested in. So not all the money you make from a HELOC is tax-deductible now. But hey, that's a huge source of potential spending. And what do those people spend their money on when they get lines of credit?
Cars, boats, you know, home improvements, solar energy. It's great. But another thing that could be very, very important is, honestly, the launch of Apple's viewfinder in the first quarter. That might have no consequences, like absolute nothingness, or it could be the beginning of a significant new product line like the iPad.
How many iPads did you own before 2010? Zero. Because it didn't exist yet. But frankly, I have so many of these devices. It's crazy. But the iPad is a wonderful tool. Everyone has PDFs these days. If you do n't already have a good PDF reader, you're missing out. In fact, we talked about my workflow on the Gold Course.
Oh, it's a little dirty. We talked about my workflow in the Gold Course, not just about how I take notes, how I edit, how I research, how I keep everything organized, how I have little bots that can name and title things for me. It's really great. This is a game-changer. I love iPads. In fact, I have several different versions of them.
I even have the small iPad right here . This is like the mid-sized iPad . And this one here is the little one . Yes, this is great for when you're skiing and want to take a break in the shelter, you know, if a child needs a distraction or something because it's lightweight. Bro, you get one of those giant iPads, the iPad Pro, and then you put that little keyboard on top of it.
Try putting that thing in a backpack, dude. It's not going to work at all, man. It's not going to work. So, well, anyway, the visor could be a game-changer. Rivian, by the way, as I wrote here on E-Hack, I also think Rivian's bonds will continue to rise, but anyway, which is good for TMF, which I've been recommending for a while.
Many of you made money with TMF. If you want to say thank you, buy the Gold course. In short, Rivian has survived hell while continuing to manufacture cars that are not profitable. They could explode when their vehicles become profitable, which I think there's a chance Rivian will achieve vehicle profitability in 2024.
That would change everything. That would be a radical change. In addition, sales of AI software will be closely scrutinized. I don't think the SaaS revenue growth that people expect from AI will be that big , but I think Palantir will be...no guarantees obviously, but I consider Palantir to be the only AI-focused company that is already profitable.
And I believe that in 2024 they will finally prove it to the general public. So those are just a few examples . I have many other stock picks that we're discussing with the course members and such. Stay tuned . Get ready if you want to be part of those live streams for course members where we do analysis together.
Gold Course. It's not just because of the lessons you learn. You know, if you want to learn about taxes, be an entrepreneur, efficiency or whatever and you want a tax deduction at the end of the year, take the Gold course. If you want access to all live streams, upgrade to the Gold course. But hey , jobs.
That is my biggest concern for next year. I'm just looking at my notes here. The biggest concern for next year is jobs. So we'll see what happens, but I'm cautiously optimistic. I really appreciate you being here. I'll keep bringing you updates and finish laying a very good foundation for 2024. Personally, and this is just a personal note, I'm extremely excited because I've already gone through the tests.
I've already left behind the foundation construction stage. I already have the physical infrastructure in place. You know, whether it's offices or studio improvements, transportation or whatever. Everything is ready, now we just have to work and I'm very excited. Oh, and if you know someone or want to recommend someone for an interview on the channel, send them to me on Twitter at Real Meat Kevin.
Thank you so much. See you next time. Bye bye . Don't promote these things that we were told ffrath or promoted product is a paid affiliate or a product or service from which we may benefit. I personally actively trade and manage an .
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