저자: Kevin · 외국인
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채권·소비 지표 기반으로 자산 가격 상승 여지를 주장. 엑세스 레버리지 없는 저축률 낮음에도 상위 가계 소비 여력 확대, 주택 보유자 자산 효과가 다음 상승 사이클로 이어질 수 있다고 봄. 주택 개선·RV·반도체·에너지 관련 선호를 밝히나 실제 매수 추천은 명시하지 않음. 단, 본인 포지션은 기술·반도체·에너지 비중이 높다고 언급하며 상승 편향을 드러냄.
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is there a way this Market can keep going and going and going it doesn't make sense how could it keep going like this and is there a potential reason that it could keep going up well as crazy as it sounds Bloomberg thinks yes now I'm going to provide what Bloomberg said which is quite bizarre that is the opposite of what we've heard about in 2023 and then I'm going to get into some specific stocks that could potentially benefit from this this is wild so as usual we're going to go to E e.com ec.com household savings and pricing power what do we have here stocks have room to run with consumers relaxed about savings wait that's weird because we've regularly been hearing about excess savings running out well Bloomberg has three responses to that argument they say number one by some measures excess savings remain around 900 billion dollar and remember before the pandemic we all had zero excess savings so any dollar of excess savings we have today is extra money now the savings rate is just 4.1% today but Bloomberg actually flips this argument on its head see a lot of bears have been looking at this and I've actually seen it as a bearish argument as well suggesting man that savings rate is low or people stressed out with all-time high levels of debt Bloomberg argues well you know there is a chance people could just have more cash available and then save less as a result that in other words spend more of their new money coming in because they've got plenty now let's be clear about this like I starting to choke cuz it's kind of like whoa whoa whoa that is going to piss off a lot of people yeah especially people making probably in the bottom 40 to 50% threshold of incomes absolutely that is going to piss a lot of people off who are frustrated at quite frankly higher restaurant costs and grocery costs and things cost everything's more expensive but just because people are frustrated by that does that change the fact that maybe that upper 60% has more cash than they've ever had before it's once again welcome to America the place where the rich get richer in fact specifically targeting the rich Bloomberg provides rationale number three homeowners are in particularly good shape with household wealth in real estate assets at a record and so here I respond and said wow this is actually really interesting perspective because it's the interest the opposite of what we saw in 2023 you know in 2023 we were all on about oh student loan repayments are going to come due household savings will run out and consumers will spend uh you know consumer spending will essentially crash yet that's flipped you know now we have upper echelons with more cash which I argued when I covered Nike's earnings that that's actually going to potentially lead wealthier consumers to see benefits from their stocks and real estate's going up leading to more spending where wealthier consumers spend but the question is where do wealthier consumers spend well when we look at ec.com I actually broke this down in my opinion in my opinion wealthier consumers homeowners remember homeowners have like 20 times the net worth of a tenant we covered this uh many times before on the YouTube channel but you can also just click on the link that I have right here which brings you to uh a a piece that actually right now is a little bit old oh it's a New York Times magazine piece Daren it it's behind a pay well uh but anyway uh it essentially just breaks down household net worth comparisons and I know some people don't like the nyt but they data is probably still accurate in this realm I've seen this Co cooperated in other places as well so the question now is where do home owners spend money versus maybe the bottom 40 or 50% who don't own homes remember about 42% of America Rents now there are also some higher income individuals who rent so let's be clear about that but anyway look at this home Improvement in my opinion this this is all my opinion in my opinion homeowners or people with substantially more net worth today are going to spend money on Home Improvement so think Lowe's Home Depot think solar nase solar Edge Tesla think cars rivan Tesla think Apple products think business startups think ubiquity think Restoration Hardware for ripoff furniture with massive like 40% gross margins like I can I could hate the product but like the stock see like I I I know people are like oh Kevin you recommended a firm I did back in the Bull Run I'm like I hate buying out pay later I don't think you should ever use it but if you're going to use it it's there uh and and I thought the stock was great during non-recessionary times and then of course I sold it going into a recessionary time now it's booming again as we're potentially coming out of a recessionary time right but the point is the U Point here is specifically around you can like Restoration Hardware stock and you could like 40% margins on ripoff furniture and not want to buy the product don't get me wrong I walk into Restoration Hardware and I I look at the furniture when I touch it I feel it I go these bastards are brilliant they sell lumber in funky designs to people that ripoff prices you spend 10 grand on a desk they make $4,000 come on man that's the business I want to run I want to sell ripoff Furniture then again see I'd rather have a win-win business that RI people off but that's the thing Restoration Hardware has created this mentality in buyers that you're not actually getting ripped off that you're getting quality right because spending $100 on a desk versus $10,000 on a desk clearly means you're getting 100x the quality no obviously not anyway read their last earnings call it's fantastic RVs pets all of these things are things that homeowners spend money on notice what people don't spend money on with their homeowners you might be surprised to hear it but Nvidia chips clothing Staples like Costco Walmart Target none of those things benefit from rich people having more money and and when I say rich I you know people get offended by that I just mean wealthier okay so like if you're not in the bottom 40% you are wealthier than that other 40% but that doesn't make you rich right okay whatever semantics so I wrote some other considerations here at ec.com uh one of the most important ones that I saw is that Carnival Cruise Line see stable demand in Q4 now they're still underperforming inflation but this is a leading indicator of consumers being willing to spend more money this is incredibly important and highly understated I am looking for Bare arguments every single day and I will provide them to you again the biggest bare arguments right now I'm not trying to be perable like I'm I'm a big fan of what came first the chicken or the egg well what came first was my analysis and then I allocated to Tech and chips now I'm probably misbalanced heavily to Tech chips and energy actually if you include n phase that means I'm underweight Restoration Hardware RVs and pets uh and and including Home Improvement and I think that actually deserves further evaluation you know maybe I'm missing an opportunity in some of those sectors and I'm always trying to look ahead like I'm not trying to see what did well last year I'm trying to think about what's going to do well going forward and I personally don't see a real estate Crow I mean look we get an inventory Spike every single spring but who says this inventory Spike this year is going to be substantially more dramatic than any prior years I do think there is going to be excess inventory this spring I think there is a like inventory was low in October and November I could buy deals all day long inventory is like non-existent in around Christmas I'm like man I was hoping to see some more distressed deals but they will come just wait until January and Feb they'll start flooding out flooding the markets again it's very normal the real estate market is surprisingly emotional in the short term if you could graph it it would it would look just like the stock market it's pretty remarkable but you can't graph it so anyway I find all of this incredibly fascinating because it's a perspective that even as people who are more bullishly positioned I have not considered this idea of household netw worth potentially actually leading to the next Bull cycle but beyond this consider this what happened when we get back to a refinancing or HELOC cycle I mean consider that people who owned real estate have probably paid down principal of about let's say $1,000 a month so that's $36,000 of principal pay down over the last 3 years well that's extra money they could tap into if they want to go refinance where does that money go well in my opinion stocks boats RVs Home Improvement I mean do your own research like where do people spend money right and and I'll research this as well and I'll post more updates on ec.com free forever uh what's not free forever you already know this I've got a bunch of new lectures dropping for the gold course courses on building your wealth over at me kevin.com and we're going to raise the price January 1 going into 2024 so if you've got any questions email us at staff atm.com uh but eack is is sort of our free news platform and and really it's it has been such an incredible tool for me just to be able to refer to some of my other thoughts like I love the fact that I could write a piece today and then I could go oh yeah what did I say about Nike Click Boom there's exactly what I wrote about Nike it's right there it's it's like the coolest database uh ever of of financial research and and I don't even have to click around I mean I guess I did just click a link but it's all technically one giant page I wonder when that's actually going to create loading issues so far it hasn't maybe because it's cashed and I have to clear the cash when I update that's okay so anyway yeah hey um thank you thank you so much for all of your support I love you all and boy I might be mispositioned here but uh this is very interesting and I'm looking for more bearish arguments oh yeah quickly what are the bearish arguments number one 10 to yield curve okay I always want to give the bearish side uh as as little of one and I'm concerned when the Bears are flip-flopping that's usually a sign at the top it makes me nervous you know Mike Wilson again he always he always becomes bullish when you're at the top he did it this summer too you know in July we 45 basis points inverted q1 earnings around the corner I don't know man if guidance is bad it's going to suck
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