Peter Schiff In Denial About US Economic Recovery, Rebutted By Andy Brenner

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2016년 1월 글로벌 증시 급락 속 강세론(Brenner)과 약세론(Schiff)이 맞붙은 대담이다. 결론: Brenner는 매도 투매 후 이달 중 반등을 기대하는 강세, Schiff는 시장이 훨씬 더 떨어질 것이라는 약세다. 시장 상황: 글로벌 증시에서 지난주에만 약 88억 달러가 빠져나갔고 중동·극동발 불안이 이어졌다. Brenner는 주식·채권·신흥국·하이일드 등 여러 자산이 조정 구간에 들어섰다고 봤다. Brenner 논거: 투매(capitulation) 신호가 원유와 일부 주식에서 나타나고 있으며 러셀2000은 약세장 영역에 들어갔다. 하이일드 정크본드 버블 우려는 없다고 봤다. 그는 피가 낭자할 정도의 추가 하락을 확인한 뒤 매수하는 '하락 시 매수' 전략을 제시했고, 이달 중 좋은 수익이 가능하다고 봤다. Brenner 경제 근거: 실업수당 신청 30만 건, 자동차 주행거리 26억 마일과 역대급 자동차 판매, 주택 부문 부양책 효과 등을 들며 경제가 생각보다 나쁘지 않다고 주장했다. 미국 실업률 5%와 낮은 금리(글로벌 중앙은행의 완화 지속)를 근거로 반등을 낙관했다. Schiff 논거: 아직 투매 단계가 아니라 여전히 부정(denial) 단계이며, 이번 강세장은 연준이 만든 버블이다. 연준이 12월 금리 인상으로 버블을 터뜨렸고, 금리 인상 중단을 인정하기 전까지 시장은 훨씬 더 낮아진다고 봤다. Schiff 경제 전망: 연준이 결국 QE4 같은 추가 양적완화를 하게 될 것이며, 그때까지 '대침체(Great Recession)'가 재개될 수 있다고 봤다. 실업률 하락은 노동참가 이탈과 저임금 시간제 일자리 때문이고, 후행지표라고 비판했다. 기업은 경기침체를 예상해 해고하지 않으며, 해고는 침체가 예상 밖으로 닥칠 때 시작된다는 논리다. 리스크: 연준 정책 전환 시점, 신흥국·원유·주식 투매의 지속 여부, 경기 침체 재개 가능성. 두 사람 모두 자산별 구체적 목표가는 제시하지 않았다. 출연자 전망: Brenner는 단기 반등, Schiff는 추가 하락 및 QE4 후 재평가를 전망했다. 사회자 발언은 제외했다.

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01. investors and this is a bigger picture story pulling more than you you pulled more than $8.8 billion do out of global Equity markets last week alone as stocks continued their Route Around The World from Market instability in the Middle East and then the Far East so our stocks poised to make a turnaround or is there more of a heartache to come how do you play it we thought this is a perfect day for a good oldfashioned bull bear debate joining me now National Alliance Securities Global strategist Andy Bren are feeling bullish in many different areas interestingly enough and europ Pacific Capital Chief Global strategist Peter Schiff a bear but in specific areas Andy I want to begin with you because it's tougher to be a bull on a day like this why are you bullish and where well as as far as being bullish I think you you're on the verge of capitulation I think you're seeing it in oil now I think you're seeing some of it in stocks you've reached the correction area in a lot of areas of of different uh stocks and as you just said a moment ago you're in the bearish territory in in in the Russell Russ but but this is a big list here stocks bonds emerging market and high yield you're not worried about a junk bond bubble I am not worried about any of these but I will tell you that I'm not stepping into these right away I just want to see a little bit more of of Blood on the streets and I think sometime in this month you're going to actually get some very good returns by stepping in I'm part of the buying on on on breaks type stuff okay I really do yeah he's he's I mean listen you have you have the unemployment number that just came out 300,000 you you know you've got you've got different aspects of the economy that are actually looking pretty good you had 2.6 billion miles put on by cars you've had record sales of cars I you you just had stimulus you know from uh from the house you know so I I don't think things are going to be that bad but obviously the markets are bad right now that's our Bull and Peter you're our bar you just heard Andy roll out some of the positives that he perceives to be I know you disagree but a and it would be easier to disagree on a day like this what do you see and are you buying anything right now well first of all we're nowhere near capitulation I think we're still in denial remember this entire bull market was about the fed and the FED finally pricked its own bubble in December and there's a lot more air that's going to come out the market is going much much lower until the Federal Reserve comes clean admits that it's not raising interest rates anymore in fact I think they're going to have to launch qe4 to save this market and that is exactly what they're going to do in the meantime the Great Recession which was inter corupted by the FED is about to resume unless the FED comes back but of course ultimately we're going to die of the fed's Cure which is actually worse than the disease but yes this might be a buying opportunity it all depends on how quickly the FED comes clean but I still think they're going to wait a while they're playing a game of chicken but this economy is in lousy shape you know when you hear people say oh it's contained uh to manufacturing it's just an industrial recession yeah it's as contained as the mortgage problems were contained the subprime or if you remember when the NASDAQ Bubble Burst by 2001 the S&P and the Dow still hadn't rolled over and people were saying well it's contained to Tech it wasn't contained then and it's not contained now people are still in denial these are enormous problems both in the markets and the economy the FED uh reaped the wind or SED the wind and now we're all reap reaping the Whirlwind but Peter you still have some of the lowest interest rates in the world you've got two central banks that are still you know Full Throttle as far as easing I don't think you're anywhere near the 2008 bubble or the 20077 bubble this is not an internet bubble I think things are going to bounce back and I still think the economy is going just fine granted it's choppy but you just have a 5% unemployment number this bubble is bigger than those previous two bubbles combined and even though interest rates are still low they're not low enough it's like when you get a big heroin a habit and and you and you K take back the dosing Peter why isn't bouncing more silver is a mess too I would think that those are the plays that you like and that there is no fear trade here at the moment for the same reason that the dollar is still Rising people let people let people are still in denial about the real extent of the problem people still believe in this phony us recovery like your other guests you keep talking about the low unemployment rate these are all lagging indicators and the only reason the unemployment rate is down is because so many people have left the labor force or have settled for low paying part-time jobs but look companies don't lay people off because they anticipate a recession the layoffs start when employers are surprised by a recession they didn't anticipate if you look at all the economic data yeah it doesn't look like we're seeing a capitulation just yet because uh the the stock market has been at least in the green earlier today at one point Andy brener Peter Schiff thank you very much for the bull bear debate