저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
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결론: 강한 고용지표로 연준의 3월 금리인상 가능성이 높으며, 시장은 변동성 확대 국면에 진입했으므로 현금 보유와 기회 포착 전략이 중요하다는 취지. 고용지표: 비농업 고용 29.2만명(3개월 평균 28.4만명)으로 강함. 임금상승은 약해 아쉽지만 미국 경제 회복 지속을 보여줌. 고용이 약했다면 금리인상 재고와 QE 논의로 이어졌을 것. 금리 전망: 3월 금리인상 가능성 높음. 2016년 인상 횟수는 4회보다는 2회 정도로 전망하며 4회는 가능성 낮다고 봄. 연준은 정상화를 원하지만 무언가를 깨뜨리지 않으려 함. 달러: 연준 긴축과 ECB·일본·중국의 완화가 엇갈리는 정책 분기로 달러 강세 가능성이 높아 보임. 채권: 장기채(TLT)는 성장률이 2~2.5%로 제한적이고 수급이 균형이라 적정 가격으로 평가. 특별히 매력적이지 않음. 변동성과 중국: 중앙은행의 백스톱 기대가 약해져 변동성 체제가 정상화 중. 중국 경기둔화와 위안화 절하가 다른 국가 성장을 잠식할 위험을 우려하나 중국은 외환보유액이 커 대응 여력이 있음. 투자 전략: 현금은 자산배분의 일부로서 회복력과 선택권을 제공. 변동성 확대 국면에서 우량주도 투매될 수 있어 저가 매수 기회가 생김. 원자재: 석유는 수요 둔화, 셰일 공급 증가, 사우디의 감산 역할 상실이 겹친 '펀더멘털이 무의미한' 시장. 에너지·원자재 기업은 싸게 거래될 수 있으나 부채가 많은 기업은 피해야 함. 장기: 강세장의 종료 여부는 갈림길(T-junction)에 있으며 향후 몇 달간 자산가격이 펀더멘털로 되돌아갈지, 펀더멘털 개선으로 상승할지 결정될 것. 예측보다 불확실성 대응 능력이 중요. 출연자 관련: 저서 출간 예정(2016년 1월 26일, The Only Game in Town).
다듬은 글
we're going to call right now we're going to see if we can bring him on live on the show and that is Muhammad L Aran he is the chief Economist he's a a a Bloomberg contributor and he's a great guest we're we're pumped to have him on the show I'm going to call him right now see if we can get him on live with Joel and I again Muhammad L Arian hello hey Mohamed it's Spencer and Jo from benzinga how you doing I'm fine thanks for calling thanks for coming on the show so guess we'll just get you started we got to get right into thank well first of all thanks for coming on the show here uh we just uh had a jobs number and uh just you know starting out here you know what you know what are your thoughts on the job number it's a very strong job numbers in terms of how many new jobs are created 292,000 is a big number it brings a thre month average to 284,000 so this is a good jobs report when it comes to job creation it's less good when it comes to wage increases and that's what the country needs but it's a good report that shows that the US economy continues to heal the FED they kind of avoided a disaster here in my opinion if they you know if this number would have been weak then they really would have questioned the First Rate hike more talks of QE and going into recession so it looks for now you know one month at a time here the numbers are looking better here so if the number's good and you're not seeing the W wage inflation you want you know what are your thoughts for an interest rate hike in March so I suspect that this number encourages an interest rate hike in March it is strong enough for the FED to feel comfortable that its employment objective is being met it also suggests that at some point wages will start increasing because we continue to create a lot of jobs what's I found interesting in this jobs report is that what's in the interest of Main Street is not in the interest of Wall Street so Main Street wants a strong jobs report all around Wall Street is nervous because they are not that comfortable that the FED is exiting the regime of supporting financial markets and I was a little bit surprised that the the stock market did so well after the drops report came up but we've given up a lot of the gains that occurred on the drops report release no good point okay so you think they're going to move in March based on this report what about the total of four hikes in 2016 I mean I know you have to take it you know one month at a time but don't you think you know especially the reaction that we get into the market after the First Rate hike here you think uh we're do for three more in 2016 no So based on on how I see the economy right now and things can change but how I see it right now we'll get about two hikes in 2016 I think the FED will want to establish that it is in a hiking cycle but it's not want to will not want to go too far victory for the FED is to start normalizing but not to break anything so I suspect we'll get two hikes based on what I see now I doubt that we get four hikes now I think I have to agree with you on that one so the itches rate hikes are going to have effect facts on the US dollar and uh we know we've seen a strong dollar hurting US exports uh give us your outlook on the dollar yeah it's not just that the FED is hiking it's that central banks are now on Divergent policy part so think of the FED easing its foot off the accelerator while the European Central Bank the bank of Japan and the People's Bank of China they're all going to press harder on their stimulus accelerator so we're going to have for the first time in a very long time Divergent monetary policy now normally there are other steps that can be taken to reconcile this but because of political polarization the only game in town right now of central banks and the exchange rate so it's hard to see the dollar not strengthen as we get more Divergent Central Bank policies all right so with interest rates obviously are going to be reflected in the bond market here and uh let's just take a look at the TLT here you know as it's trading uh with that jobs number coming out I mean you know is it you know is it time to to you know if we're going to get at least one more interest rate hike is it time to you know accit the bond market and perhaps um allocate your resources in other areas so the bond market is determined by a lot more than just the outlook for fed policy it also has to do with how the econom is doing overall it also has to do with what investor appetite is um so if I look at the bond market right now it's adequately priced it's neither too expensive nor too cheap why because the growth Outlook is still muted we're not going to exit the two to two and a half perc growth rate and also there's a very delicate balance in terms of buyers and sellers so I don't think there's anything particularly exciting right now about the bond market it is fairly priced given not just policy the policy Outlook but also the economic Outlook and what what people call the technicals of the market speaking of the technicals of the market what a disastrous start to the new year uh you know one of the worst uh you know performances to start a new year quite some time uh so goes January so goes the market uh do you prescribe to that theory um I don't because I tend to be much more analytical and I'm not quite sure why January should have such a big influence on the next 11 months but I do think the critical thing about the market today is that we're entering a new volatility Paradigm we are gradually exiting the world in which central banks or BFFs are best friends forever we exiting the world in which every time there was a hiccup somewhere in the world a central bank would come in and say don't worry I've got your back covered with more Divergent monetary policy any any hiccup in the world is now going to have an outside influence on financial assets and that's what we've seen the first four days of the year there is no reason why we should sell off the way we sold off in relation to the China news except that we have been in a regime of repressed volatility and re exiting and markets have to price in Greater volatility and that's going to happen in a nonlinear fashion there's going to be lots of bumps along the way so the key thing for investors to realize is that the last few years have been adnormal in terms of volatility repression and we're going to go back to a more normal volatility regime um great segue I was going to go into the next question about China I mean if China continues you know to go the path of you know slower growth or recession I mean is that eventually going to bring us down as well so it depends how they react what made markets nervous is not just that the economy was slowing but the Chinese authorities were accelerating the depreciations of their currency and they were losing control of the offshore currency Market in other words the weaker that currency got the higher the risk that they would try to steal growth from somebody else so suddenly the markets had to worry about two things one the slow down in China which means the Chinese will buy fewer goods and two that the Chinese would try to compensate by aggressively depreciating their currency and taking growth away from other countries that are not as well positioned as China we must not forget that China has massive International reserves and has diminished external debt so China can deal with the Slowdown much better than other countries but if it starts stealing growth from other countries then markets worry about countries that are less strong financially than China is we're on the line with Mohamad Al Aran he's chief economic advisor at Alliance Corp so you know based on all the factors the unemployment numbers the China situation uh you know where where's there to hide in this market you know you've had you know Apple have a big pullback over oldtime highs people are extremely worried about iPhone sales the next quarter you have Fang you know uh being uh de declawed uh where's there to hide in this market so if you really want to hide you're going to cash that's the only safe thing okay um a few months ago I argued that investors should think of cash as part of the asset Al a and that was quite controversial because people say cash is you know it's it's it's a dead it's dead money you're not getting paid any interest and in fact inflation is eating away that is true but cash gives you two things that in a volatile world are really important one resilience you're not forced out of positions at the worst possible time second it gives you optionality you just spoke about Apple when the market goes through trauma like we had in the last four days good stocks get hammered why because they they are widely held lots of people hold them and therefore you tend to get excessive selling when volatility goes up so you want cash as part of your asset allocation that gives you resilience in this volatile world but also to give you optionality because the one thing I can guarantee is that this volatility regime we're entering is going to also create a lot of Bargains throughout the year okay just let's touch on a couple more things before we let you go uh first of all I mean crude oil I mean you've had one of the most unprecedented runs in crude here over the last year so you know any bottom in sight here is just something maybe crude and some of these integrated oil companies just you know stay away so first oil is one of the three unhinged Market what do I mean by unhinged Market it is a market where fundamentals no longer count why because oil has been hit by The Perfect Storm not only is demand lower principally because what's happening in China not only is Supply higher because of shale and other non-traditional suppliers but it lost its swing producer it's lost the the one producer Saudi Arabia that was willing to take down output when prices went down so that is a perfect storm create makes oil incredibly volatile it will take quite a while for oil to find its footing now the implication of this is that investors are going to find that a lot of energy related and commodity related companies will trade very cheaply the ones you want to stay away from are the ones that are very highly leveraged if that balance sheet has a lot of debt on on on it stay away otherwise there are energy companies that are going to look increasingly comp compelling this year given how bad technicals are in that sector okay we're going to end with the $ 64,000 question here is the great bull market over not necessarily so I I have a book coming out that argues that there is a t Junction coming up it's what the British call a junction when the pathon ends but they are two ways out and they're equally probable at this point I know that's not the answer you want to hear you want to hear something definitive but the data suggest that we are really facing this T Junction and a lot will depend on what happens over the next few months there is a world in which we see asset values plunge back to the most luest fundamentals and that will cause a lot of damage on markets but there's another world in which better fundamentals validate asset prices and push them higher and the one thing I I tell people is rather than try to predict what is a very uncertain future in fact to use Ben banki an unusually uncertain future that's his phrase make sure you have the resilience and the agility to navigate whatever the world gives you because there's going to be a lot of opportunities either way we've been on the line with muhamad L Arian Muhammad has a book coming out January 26 the only game in town central banks instability and avoiding the next collapse Muhammad thank you so much for coming on hope we can do this again soon thank you very much all right all right have a good day
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