저자: MarcFaber—영상진행자FabianBraun은사회자로제외 · 외국인
요약 보기
마크 파버 포트폴리오는 과거 백테스트 기준 연 9.7%로 주식 100%(10.2%)에 근접했고, 최대낙폭은 -28%로 주식(-51%)보다 낮아 분산효과가 크다는 결론. [전략 구조] 주식 25%, 채권 25%, 금 25%, 부동산 25%로 구성. 현금·MMF는 보유하지 않는데, 파버는 화폐가치가 크게 하락할 것이라고 봐서 부동산을 선택. 주식 25%는 미국 대형주 13%, 미국 외 선진국 8%, 신흥국 4%로 나뉨. 채권은 미국 10년물 국채. [성과와 해석] 1973~2013 백테스트에서 연 9.7% 수익률과 -28% 최대낙폭을 기록. 채권은 금리 인하기 호황의 수혜를 받았고, 금은 2013년까지 강한 상승기를 거쳤기에 이 성과가 과거 특수 요인에 힘입은 것이라는 해석. [파버 견해] 선진국, 특히 미국 시장이 고평가라고 보며 금과 신흥시장 투자를 강하게 선호. 전 세계 시장에 거품만 보인다는 2014년 발언 언급. 금은 본질적 가치 상승 효과는 없지만 폭락 대비 자산으로 가지고 다닌다고 함. [영상 평가 및 리스크] 포트폴리오 자체는 일관성이 높다고 평가되나 유럽 투자자 기대에 맞게 조정이 필요하다고 지적. 금의 향후 가격 상승은 투기적 베팅이라는 점과 과거 수익률이 미래를 보장하지 않는다는 점을 강조. [언급 종목/자산 방향] 미국 대형주, 미국 외 주식, 신흥국 주식은 비중 배분 차원에서 언급되었으나 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 없음. 금은 장기 보유 관점에서 언급. 미국 주식은 고평가 우려 맥락.
다듬은 글
Welcome to Portfolio Live, the platform for simple yet successful investing. My name is Fabian Braun, and today we're looking at another very specific investment strategy, this time from a very well-known investor, Mark Farber. Mark Farber is a Swiss investor who now lives in Thailand. He gained notoriety for advising his clients to sell their stocks as early as the late 1980s, even before the 1987 crash when stocks lost 25% in a single day.
He's also known for his clear and pointed statements. He's nicknamed Dr. Doom and is even referred to as a "crash prophet" by Manager Magazin. To quote him, in 2014 he said he sees only bubbles everywhere in all markets. A recurring theme in his approach is that he considers developed markets, especially in America, to be overvalued.
Therefore, he's a strong advocate of investing in gold and, above all, emerging markets. His investment strategy is quite simple. Let's follow the model again: on the first level, we see 25% stocks, then 25% bonds, and 25% gold. Surprisingly, 25% real estate looks quite similar at first glance to the permanent portfolio already discussed here.
The difference is that Mark Farber does n't believe that money will retain its real value, but rather that it will depreciate significantly. Therefore, he has no money market investments; instead, he invests in real estate. On the second level, we need to differentiate further. There, the 25% stocks are divided into 13% American large- cap stocks, then there are foreign stocks from an American perspective at 8%, and 4% in emerging markets.
On the bond side, there are long-term, ten-year US Treasury bonds. How has Mark Farber's portfolio performed? Here again, we refer to the data from Mark Faber of Cambria Investment, who also backtested this portfolio and determined the results from 1973 to 2013. The return for Mark Farber's portfolio was 9.7%, almost as high as the pure stock portfolio at 10.2%.
This is surprising, of course, because it contains a large proportion of real estate, gold, and bonds. How can this be explained? On the bond side, we have of course seen renewed interest rate cuts over the last 20 years, which is why the bond markets have performed so well. This good performance is unlikely to be repeated in the coming years.
At the same time, we remember that until 2013 there was also the great gold rush, meaning gold experienced an extremely strong upward movement. In the last two years, the overall performance would probably have looked somewhat different. Let's briefly look at the risk. The risk here is also significantly lower at 9.7% than with pure equity investments.
This again demonstrates the good diversification effect of the four blocks, each with 25%. Even in the maximum drawdown, the maximum loss of -28% shows the diversification effect – 28% lower than with equities at 51%. What can we take away from this? Mark Farber's portfolio is one of the most consistent we've seen, even though he's generally considered a crash bet.
Secondly, his portfolio still needs some adjustment to European expectations. And thirdly, there's gold, which, as we know, is a controversial topic. He's speculating on further price increases for gold itself, but it certainly doesn't have an intrinsic value-enhancing effect. Nevertheless, it's more important to him, which is why he even says he takes gold with him wherever he goes.
If a major crash does occur, he'll always have a valuable asset with him. As always, I hope you enjoyed it. Visit us at www.portfoliolif.de and subscribe to the newsletter. Thank you for watching. Invest simply but successfully, and remember, money isn't everything. Please note: This video does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.
It does not provide investment advice. Historical performance, as shown, is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Despite our best efforts, we cannot guarantee the content. We reserve the right to change the content at any time. This video is subject exclusively to German law.
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