저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리 포트폴리오 상위 5개 종목(스텔란티스, 넥스타미디어, 스타벌크캐리어스, 부킹홀딩스, 알리바바) 분석 영상이다. 결론: 버리의 전략은 '현재 강한 현금흐름과 이익을 내는데 저평가된 기업'을 사는 것으로, 장기 산업 트렌드가 불리해도 싸게 사면 손실이 제한된다는 논리다. 스텔란티스: 전기차 전환이 느려 이익률이 개선 중이며(영업이익률 12.54%), 선행 PER 3.7배로 테슬라(약 60배)의 극히 일부 수준. 전기차 보급은 보조금 없이는 오래 걸린다는 견해. 넥스타미디어: 지역 방송국 보유 업체로 선행 PER 5.548배, 영업이익률 17.2%(하락 추세). 스트리밍 전환은 느리게 진행될 것이라고 봄. 디즈니 ABC 매각 시 수혜 가능성 언급. 스타벌크캐리어스: 건화물 운송, 선행 PER 6.488배, 영업이익률 25.87%. 운임은 팬데믹 호황 후 급락 중이나 호황기에 부채를 상환해 재무가 양호하다고 평가. 부킹홀딩스: 선행 PER 17.76배로 상위 5개 중 가장 비싸지만 영업이익률 30.71%로 상승 중. 여행 지출 회복 추세의 수혜주이며 2019년 수준 회복까지 1~2년 걸릴 것으로 전망. 알리바바: 선행 PER 7.92배, 영업이익률 14.28%로 2022년 1월 저점 이후 상승. 중국 경기 회복은 기대보다 느리나 아마존에 비해 극도로 싼 가치라고 설명. 지정학적 리스크 언급. 결론적으로 발표자는 캐시 우드(고평가 혁신 성장주)와 정반대의 접근이며, 본인의 투자 철학이 버리 쪽에 더 가깝다고 밝힘. 본 영상 자체는 대상 자산(국내 종목·지수·원자재 등)에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측을 담고 있지 않음.
다듬은 글
Hey, thanks for tuning in. If you're not aware, 64.72% of Michael Burry's investment portfolio is held in just five stocks. Now, in this video, I'm going to share with you those five stocks, but more importantly, I'm going to talk about why Michael Burry owns these five stocks. And looking across these five stocks, highlighting critical financial metrics from these five stocks, you'll notice a theme and you'll begin to understand Michael Burry's investment strategy.
Of course, Michael Burry is famous for calling the housing bubble back before 2010. That's where he's gained fame and notoriety as an investor. And nowadays, a lot of investors are following Michael Burry's stock picks. So, without further ado, let's highlight these five stocks. I want to thank The Motlekev for the 10 best stocks to buy now.
So, the top five stocks in Michael Burry's investment portfolio, Stellantis NV, where he holds 17.43% of his portfolio. Next, StarLink Media Group, where he holds 15.89% Star Bulk Carrier Corp at 10.98% and Booking Holdings at 10.54%. So, now that we know the five stocks and we know the percentages owned of each of these five stocks, let's dig a little deeper.
Let's understand these five stocks a little bit better to see a common theme here with Michael Burry and why he's holding these five stocks. Starting with Stellantis NV, right, the car company that is gaining traction not so much investing in EVs just yet. It's been one of the slower companies investing in the EV transition, and that might be one of the reasons Michael Burry's interested in this stock.
Because of that slower investment transition to EVs, Stellantis' profit margins have been doing better. I have here the operating profit margin from Stellantis over the last 3 years, and you can see a solidly rising operating profit margin at 12.54%. What's more, and I think what's more important in terms of Michael Burry's perspective on investing in this stock, is the relatively cheap valuation.
Stellantis is trading at a forward price to earnings of just 3.7. A forward price to earnings of just 3.7. To put this in perspective, Tesla is trading at a forward price to earnings closer to 60. 60. So, Stellantis is trading at just a fraction of Tesla's valuation, and you could say, "Well, Tesla's more technologically advanced.
Tesla's in EVs, which is the growth industries, where Stellantis is trailing significantly behind." And I would agree with you on all of those fronts. But, what matters here is that Stellantis is trading at only a fraction, a tiny fraction, less than 10% of the valuation of Tesla, and its operating profit margin is rising, unlike Tesla's, which is falling, and it's still generating billions in cash flow while the world is transitioning to EVs, and that transition is moving slowly.
It's moving slowly despite all the hype around electric vehicles. Still, worldwide, less than 10% of vehicles sold are electric vehicles. Consumers, more than nine out of 10 consumers prefer traditional internal combustion engine vehicles. Despite the thousands and thousands of dollars of government incentives that have gone in the industry, still more than nine out of 10 consumers prefer internal combustion engine vehicles.
And in my opinion, it's going to be a while before EVs are the majority and before consumers are organically interested in purchasing electric vehicles without significant government incentive. The next stock to dig a little deeper into is Nexstar Media Group. This company owns a ton of local media stations, and while people are switching to streaming television that is the growth industry, Michael Burry prefers this legacy media company, Nexstar, at a forward price to earnings of just 5.548.
Again, another company with a relatively cheap valuation. Also, it's operating profit margin, while it's moving downward, still a strong 17.2%. So, while the trends are not in this company's favor, right? People are moving more towards streaming consumption, that trend is going to take time before every every media consumer switches over to streaming, it may not all be streaming in the end.
There may be a few million customers that still prefer this legacy form of consumption, and Nexstar Media Group stands to capture that market. It's one of the bigger players in that market. Also, Nexstar gained some attention recently as Disney was looking to sell its ABC networks. Nexstar was one of the companies that could stand to benefit from that sale because Disney is in a position where it's looking to offload those assets.
It's in a position where it might need to sell those assets at lower prices than it would like, and Nexstar could benefit from that discount sale price in that area. But again, two companies here so far we've looked at at relatively cheap valuations with relatively solid operating profitability. And we're going to stick with that theme here with the next company, Star Bulk Carriers, trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 6.488, another relatively cheap company and solid operating profitability at 25.87%.
Of course, the shipping industry went through a major turbulent area a major turbulent time during the pandemic and in the aftermath of the pandemic where shipping prices and volumes soared in 2020, 2021, and in the first part of 2022, and now they're crashing in terms of pricing. Shipping prices are crashing, and while industry volume in the most recent quarter was slightly up, it's still down significantly from the boom times.
Remember, people are spending more money on away-from-home experiences and less money on things, and that's been a bad news for all shipping companies as the volume of items shipped across borders has decreased. Star Bulk Carriers ships mostly dry bulk goods and commodities, so it hasn't been as exposed to those cyclical factors.
Still, it's experiencing those industry trends where the prices to ship products across borders has fallen. The good news is that Star Bulk Carriers managed the boom times well. It used those profits during the boom times to pay down debt, and so it's in a good financial position, still generating strong profit, and trading at a cheap valuation.
Again, what have you noticed here? Three out of three of these companies so far are trading at a cheap valuation and are generating relatively strong or relatively solid profitability. And the fourth company, Booking Holdings, again, trading at a relatively I would say this is the out of the five, the most expensive stock that in the top five, which is trading at a forward price to earnings of 17.76.
But it's operating profitability is stronger than any of the companies we mentioned so far at 30.71% and rising. And Booking Holdings is actually benefiting from the near-term trend, whereas the other three companies we looked at so far were not benefiting from the near-term trend. People are spending more money away from home.
People are spending more money on travel and Booking Holdings is in a great position to benefit from that near-term trend, which in my opinion is going to last another year, maybe two years before we even get to the level where we were in 2019 in terms of spending on travel. So, while this trend has been recovering quickly, it's still not recovered to the point we were at in 2019, and that's despite the higher prices industry-wide.
So, you could see there's room to go for this trend where people will continue spending on travel, continue spending on away-from-home experiences, and Booking's is in a great position to benefit. And finally, we have Alibaba, the Chinese company trading at a forward price to earnings of just 7.92, relatively cheap again with a solid operating profit margin of 14.28.
And this operating profit margin has been rising steadily since hitting a bottom in January of 2022. The economic recovery in China in 2023 has gone slower than many analysts were expecting, including myself. Coming into the year, I had been talking about this economic reopening in China was going to fuel a rebound in consumer spending in the region, and that, while it might be true to a certain extent, is less true than what I was expecting.
I was expecting a faster rate of growth in China in 2023, but it looks like it's a slower recovery upward rather than a snapback V-shape recovery as that economy has reopened. Nevertheless, Alibaba trading at a cheap valuation at forward PE of 7.9 and operating profit margin of 14.28, that economy is growing faster and will grow faster most likely over the next decade than many other economies including the US and you're getting an excellent company that's been compared to the Amazon of It's been said that it's like the Amazon of of China.
And so you're getting it at a fraction of the valuation you can buy Amazon stock. Of course, it comes with geopolitical risks and all of that, but you're getting it at a fraction of the valuation and I think that's what has Michael Burry attracted to this stock as well. So, to wrap things up, five of the top holdings in Michael Burry's portfolio, cheap or relatively cheap valuations with solid and growing or rising profitability in each of the five.
It's almost like the opposite. I've done a video like this with Cathie Wood's portfolio. This is almost like an opposite of Cathie Wood's portfolio where Cathie Wood is buying very expensive innovative growth stocks, some of them losing a ton of money on the bottom line regardless of valuation, Cathie Wood investing in these companies because of their innovation capabilities, betting on the fact that at some point in the future they will generate strong cash flow.
Michael Burry taking the opposite approach, looking at companies that are generating strong cash and strong profit right now, selling at cheap valuations regardless if the long-term trends are working against them, right? With in TV, in the EVs and so on, right? So, just saying, well, these companies are generating strong profit right now, let's go into them.
Maybe in the future they won't, but they're I'm getting them at such a cheap price that even if I'm wrong, I'm not going to lose that much money. So, I tend to favor this investing strategy. If you've been following my channel, you would you would agree that my philosophy is closer to that of Michael Burry than that of Cathie Wood, and I understand this strategy here by Michael Burry.
So, five stocks, 64% of the portfolio in these five stocks. really helps me make more videos just like this one. I cannot understate, I cannot overstate just how much it helps me make more videos just like this one. Without your viewership, without your subscriptions, this channel could not exist. So, thank you so much for watching.
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