저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 2023년에 침체와 인플레이션이 겹친 '인플레이션성 불황'이 올 것이며 달러 약세와 주식 명목가격 상승에도 금 기준 실질가치는 하락한다고 주장. 경기 침체 판단: 2022년 3분기 GDP 성장은 전략적 석유비축유 수출과 무역적자 개선 덕분이었고, 이는 일회성이며 2023년에는 지속되기 어렵다고 봄. 2022년 상반기 마이너스 성장 이후 침체를 인정하지 않는 사람들은 결국 인정하게 될 것이라고 예상. 달러 전망: 금리 인상에도 달러 강세는 금리 자체보다 시장이 연준의 인플레 억제 약속을 믿은 데서 나온 것이며, 실질금리가 마이너스인 상황에서 투자자들은 달러를 팔 유인이 커져 2023년 달러가 급락할 것이라고 주장. 달러 약세는 수입물가를 올려 인플레를 악화시킴. 인플레이션성 불황: 금본위제 시절 불황에는 물가가 하락해 구제가 됐지만, 현재는 금본위가 없어 정부와 연준이 돈을 찍어 부양하므로 불황 속에서도 물가가 크게 오른다는 논리. 주식 전망: 주식의 명목가격은 상승할 수 있으나 금 기준 실질가치는 크게 하락. 수익성 없는 기업과 광고 의존 기업은 파산 위험. 버블 주식은 크게 하락해야 하며, S&P500은 버블 종목 비중 때문에 10년 말에도 낮을 수 있다고 언급. 대다수 미국인은 버블 종목에 투자해 손실 위험에 노출. 리스크: 연준의 긴축 지속 여부, 달러 급락, 인플레이션 재가속, 기업 파산.
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is not a uh incentive to hold dollars that's an incentive to sell dollars because the interest that you earn is not high enough to compensate you for the purchasing power that you lose and and so when uh investors figure this out I think the dollar is going to fall sharply and that's going to exacerbate the the problem that the FED is dealing with because the strength of the dollar limited the rise in consumer prices in the United States in 2022 so even though prices were up a lot they would have been up even more had the dollar not been strong relative to other currencies well if the dollar really weakens in 2023 that's going to add additional upward pressure to already Rising consumer prices we don't want to scare you during this time of the year however if you really want to know the reality then it's pretty harsh perhaps now people are preparing for the new year and Christmas however they are unaware of what the new year will bring for them unfortunately 2022 showed us how things could go bad the 2023 is going to be the year which will show us the extreme picture Schiff the chief Economist and founder of euro-pacific asset management author and analyst has warned about a worse recession and inflationary depression in 2023 the inflation currency devaluation sinking savings energy crisis and possible recession in 2022 have already made us quite a pessimist however 2023 will unfold the worst we can imagine let's listen to what Peter Schiff has to say about the disastrous things coming our way let's get started who is the man who had predicted the 2008 financial crisis while Peter Schiff was the man who was so certain about the financial crisis that he started warning the fed and wrote a book as well so people could be prepared for the crisis however no one believed that a financial crisis was possible many economists took a recession and collapsed out of the question simply because they were too idealistic about the market however Peter Schiff was a realist and is still today this year Peter Schiff warned that a recession would hit and in the third and fourth quarters of 2022 he finally announced that we are in a recession however the same as before economists didn't believe him even today no one is ready to believe that we are in a recession perhaps that's due to the fact that they don't know what a recession looks like all the things happening today where markets are declining USD is falling and prices are skyrocketing Point toward a recession however economists and financial Watchdogs are not announcing this and people are still under the illusion that the recession has not come if that's the case no one will believe that a worse recession will hit in 2023 but Peter Schiff said that the recession of 2022 has boiled things for 2023 and now people should be prepared for the collapsing markets in 2023.
in 2008 before the recession no one believed that but after the recession hit even Ordinary People could see that those economists went back to revise the data and then they announced that we were in a recession this will happen again in 2023 when economists are reluctant to announce but people should know that a recession will be there but why would there be a recession an inflationary depression in 2023 here's a little reminder to like the video if you were loving it and if you don't want to miss videos about the evolving economics and the financial order subscribe to our Channel let's continue now people often say that 2022 has been going well and will continue in 2023.
however they should know that all the leverages we had in 2022 won't last in 2023. petership said that the U.S experienced positive growth in 2022 due to oil exports that it got from the Strategic oil Reserves it exported that oil and bolstered its reserves in 2022 however those strategic oil reserves won't last long in 2023 the U.S won't have those oil reserves thus oil exports will stop and so will the inflowing capital without Capital the FED will face heavy pressure but this will be further agitated by the USD devaluation and the international market this year as Peter Shipp said the USD saw exceptional growth compared to other currencies due to this the U.S got leverage and reduced its trade deficit simply because the USD was performing great the U.S had to pay less for the products it imported at the same time it had to be paid more for the products it exported which together strengthened the U.S economy however as Peter Schiff said the USD has started losing value lately and this will continue in 2023 in other words when the USD price declines the trade deficit will increase and the U.S has to use extra USD from its reserves to pay for the same products moreover strong economies would start selling their USD and their reserves as the investors would do no one would want to keep a declining currency and lose its value it will worsen things for the USD and its price will decline further listen to what Peter Schiff said about that we're not maybe it's a depression and that would be the the way that they would end up being wrong but if you remember the Great Recession started in 2007.
but I was doing interviews on popular uh shows in mid-2008 and they were saying there's no recession so what happened was all these economists went backwards and revised down all the data and then they said okay I guess we were in recession they didn't even think a recession was coming but the fact of the matter is we were actually in one at the time and they couldn't even see that and I think this is the same situation today you know we actually had negative quarters the first two quarters were negative the third quarter in fact you know we got some numbers out on that today I mean it was up maybe three percent or so but all of that was due to the Improvement in the trade deficit during that quarter and a lot of that resulted from the fact that we were able to export a lot of the oil that we were pulling out of the Strategic petroleum Reserve but we're going to exhaust that Reserve sometime next year so that's not going to be able to offset our trade deficits but also we had the big rise in the dollar well in the 4 fourth quarter we've had a big fall in the dollar it hasn't lost all of its gains yet but I think it will in 2023 but as the dollar weakens that's also going to push up our trade deficits because it increases the cost of all of our Imports so I think the help that we got in Q3 was a one-off quarter we may end up with a negative print for Q4 we'll see but I think we're going to get quite a few negative prints in 2023 as more air comes out of this bubble and then I think it's going to be very hard for the recession deniers to continue uh to you know put a positive spin on this economy they're going to have to admit that were in recession the question is is the Fed going to change course as a result of that admission or is it going to continue uh with the rate hikes and quantitative tightening uh making a bad situation worse which you know is what it should do but the question is will it do that without the Strategic oil reserves and strong USD the recession would be more obvious and then even the recession Engineers have to accept that the U.S is in a recession but why would the USD weaken the FED has been increasing interest rates which should encourage people and even countries to hold the USD when everyone holds the USD its price increases however Peter Schiff said that even if the FED increased interest rates it didn't bring any positive results he said that for the time being the USD became strong not because of the interest rate hikes but because of people's beliefs the market believed that the interest hikes would bring inflation down and bring things back on track and these expectations worked and made the USD strong the promises the FED made were really sold back then but now the market is seeing the reality that inflation isn't coming down therefore instead of holding the USD they are selling it because the benefit of selling is more than the interest rates now in 2023 this reality will be further uncovered and everyone will sell off their USD in turn this will not only weaken the U.S economy but also exacerbate prices listen to what Peter ship said real reason that the dollar Rose was not just that rate Rose okay but that the markets believed that these rate hikes were going to work in that they were going to bring down the inflation rate the FED said that we're going to return inflation to two percent and we're going to do whatever it takes to make that happen and the markets basically took the FED at its word and so they bought the dollar on the idea that you know these high rates were going to produce positive real returns for dollars but I think as the markets come to terms with reality that despite the rate hikes inflation is not going down to two percent in fact it's more likely to head higher after this you know brief dip that we've had and so that even though the FED has raised rates rates are still negative from a real term and if you have negative real interest rates that is not a uh incentive to hold dollars that's an incentive to sell dollars because the interest that you earn is not high enough to compensate you for the purchasing power that you lose and and so when investors figure this out I think the dollar is going to fall sharply and that's going to exacerbate the the problem that the FED is dealing with because the strength of the dollar limited the rise in consumer prices in the United States in 2022 so even though prices were up a lot they would have been up even more had the dollar not been strong relative to other currencies well if the dollar really weakens in 2023 that's going to add additional upward pressure to already Rising consumer prices but what is inflationary depression and how it will take over in 2023 during all the previous depressions the prices of assets Commodities and products went down so even if the markets were declining collapsing and breathing their last people had a sigh of relief they could buy products and Necessities at lower prices something to note here as it was due to the gold standards gold was backing up currencies because we are talking about the 1930s but what is inflationary depression and how it will take over in 2023 during all the previous depressions the prices of assets Commodities and products went down so even if the markets were declining collapsing and breeding their last people had a sigh of relief they could buy products and Necessities at lower prices something to note here as it was due to the gold standards gold was backing up currencies because we are talking about the 1930s this doesn't mean that the declining prices of goods brought depression rather the cases otherwise where the depression brought the prices down however now we don't have gold that currencies back therefore during the Depression of 2023 when the government and people won't have money the FED will print more of it and keep things balanced however this will cause excessive inflation while at the same time we will have depression as well hence unlike before when depression brought necessities prices down now depression will bring in more inflation that's what is called inflationary depression and this is what will happen in 2023 listen to what Peter Schiff said there on a gold standard so he had real money and so we had a depression but prices came down and prices coming down was actually a good thing it provided some relief uh to uh people because the cost of living went down the value of money went up but you know a lot of people think that the reason we had a depression was because prices went down which is not true prices went down as a result of the depression but it didn't cause it and in fact it did provide some relief but the whole idea that if prices are coming down we should worry that it might cause a a recession is is nonsense it's like you know trying to blame the rain on on wet sidewalks they have they have it they have it in reverse but what's going to happen during this inflationary depression is going to be very different because we're not on a gold standard anymore we're just on a we're on no standard we just have Fiat and the government's going to print even more of it uh to try to prop everything up and bail everybody out and prevent politicians from having to make the difficult choices of cutting government spending they're just going to print money and give it to the government so they can spend that uh so it's you know it's going to be very different I think that the nominal level of a lot of stocks those prices are going to go up for a lot of stocks but in real terms if you price them in Gold they're still going to go way down so stock prices are going to come down in in terms of real money but they're going to go up in terms of funny money now some companies stock prices won't go up because these companies are going to go bankrupt and so they go out of business the stock is zero which sector is going to go bankrupt most which sector is going to go bankrupt well the companies that are it's not necessarily any specific sector companies that don't have that don't make a profit okay aren't going to be able to survive uh and also companies that are relying on Advertising that don't really have a product that they price but they're just like live it off now they might not go bankrupt maybe they can reinvent themselves on a smaller scale and try to find a way to pay the bills uh but but also there's a lot of companies that are going to have to uh downsize or you know reduce their scale to try to find the point where they can operate properly you know on on a smaller scale but you know there's been a lot of stocks too that were so inflated during the bubble uh that they they still need to fall dramatically uh even if inflation is there you know this the prices of these stocks still have to come down a lot but there are a lot of companies that the stock price is going to go up now unfortunately most Americans don't own those stocks or they don't have a lot of money in them because they have all their money in the bubble stocks uh because the bubble stocks were the ones that were delivering the best Returns on paper uh and that's what everybody was was chasing and unfortunately those stocks dominate the indexes so it's possible that the S P 500 could end up lower at the end of the decade uh because of the weighting of those stocks but within the s p within those 500 companies there's going to be you know a number of them that that go up uh the key is to what do you think will a more catastrophic recession an inflationary Depression hit in 2023 or will things start to come back on track do you agree with Peter Schiff on the worst possible era of market and inflation in 2023 comment your opinions in the comments section right below do you want to watch more videos like this one if yes please like and share the video and subscribe to our channel for more videos on the latest economics and financial news until the 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