저자: The Economic Diary · 외국인
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the number of people in companies one or two years old is half of what it was in the 1970s as per capita basis we're simply not as broadly adventurous and capitalistic as we used to be why not well for one thing there are no Capital reserves you can't even raise enough money to start a barber shop you ask how much money do you have in reserve and a third of Americans can't put together five hundred dollars you know this is not a healthy system that we've developed and the growth rate of the US economy has slowed More Than People realize that the productivity component has slowed down from 1.8 to about 0.9 for the last 15 years 0.9 things have started to fall which no one is seeing however the chief economists cannot stay silent and see this order breaking off the trouble started years ago and now the catastrophe has reached its climax now as Jeremy Grantham said people will see themselves how things will turn out some of the worst incidents are happening pointing towards something harsher than collapse bubbles are reaching near breaking points and already people don't have any savings for the worst times ahead yes trouble has begun but no one is really paying attention to it perhaps conflicts like the Ukraine Russia ones have been introduced so people can stay busy thinking about them ignoring the worst Brewing now but who is Jeremy Grantham well he is a famous British investor co-founder and chief investment strategist of Grantham mayo and Van otterlu a boston-based asset management firm this 84 year old investor is seeing what most of us are missing let's listen to what he has to say first Jeremy Grantham talked about the forming and breaking of great bubbles but what does he mean by that for that you should see what's happening in the market the prices of assets and commodities had reached the maximum possible levels which no one could imagine even prices of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin skyrocketed and reached about seventy thousand dollars prices of stocks index funds and even Commodities like gold and silver also liked but what's happening now well the prices have now started to decline at an abnormal level we can see that even S P 500 is down in the stock market Dow Jones is down and cryptocurrencies have started to collapse that's what Jeremy Grantham says bubbles are formed and broken every 20 years bubbles are formed and then pop bringing everything down as Jeremy Grantham said these bubbles can sometimes take less than 20 years to inflate and then get popped the bubble we are having now has taken only 14 years which shows how catastrophic it can be first the prices of assets and commodities reach the highest levels after which the prices start to decline until the commodity collapses that has been happening for centuries in the market and will continue to happen however something has changed earlier these bubbles took decades to form but now the time period they need is shrinking in other words this means that our Market has formed itself in such a way that it cannot keep a bubble aside for many years perhaps one decade is the maximum time a bubble can be prevented which shows how vulnerable our markets have become but why is this the case while it's due to the fact that we have become less capitalists on which we will talk within a few minutes but first let's know why Jeremy Grantham thinks these bubbles have also come and gone in the past Jeremy Grantham said we always try to discover the bubbles created due to Crazy investors behavior in other words not all bubbles can lead to disasters where people will be deprived of necessities rather some bubbles that take only a few years to form our deadly and can bring disastrous collapses Grantham said that when investors are too bullish about an asset they put their everything on making it more like gambling and when you make investing an active gambling the consequences you give are like that of gambling and that you win everything or lose everything you have got Grantham said this happened in the 1929 bubble Japan's 1989 bubble then in the 2000 Tech bubble and later in the 2007 housing bubble in the U.S in all these bubbles one thing was similar investors had crazy behavior which they are having now that's the reason why Jeremy Grantham thinks we are in trouble cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin mean stocks Like A and C and GameStop and even quantumscape showed an exceptional acceleration in price in 2020.
NASDAQ was up 60 after the cobbit era which shows how crazy the investors were however the inevitable is already started and prices of all these assets have started to decline nothing can prevent their prices from falling and that's how this bubble will burst prices will keep declining as they happen in all the past bubbles until they reach the lowest levels perhaps some Commodities will even collapse too listen to what Jeremy Grantham said I think the forming and breaking of the great bubbles are really the only thing that really matters in equity management rest of the time show up keep your nose clean make a point or two lose a point or two it doesn't really matter but once in a blue moon typically every 20 years but more recently a little more frequently than that you have these bubbles they form over a number of years they dominate everything and then they break and once again they dominate everything it really does matter and if you can bring yourself to sidestep some of the pain it can make a lot of difference I don't think the bubbles are hard to spot but that is my specialty I look at the handful of Real McCoy bubbles the type that have really crazy invested behavior that have masses of enthusiasm and they stand out like a sorter 1929 the 2000 Tech bubble the 2007 housing bubble in the U.S Japan in 1989 both land and housing and the stock market probably the biggest bubbles of both the equity market and the real estate market in the history of man so they are The Real McCoy and then there's an interesting almost case of 1972 and Nifty 50.
it didn't go quite as high and it wasn't quite as silly but it was on the cusp of oil crises and so on so that it went down a whole lot it went down every bit as much as some of the others a 62 decline adjusted for inflation in 1973-74 still the biggest decline since the 1930s so that's my universe and here we are we have checked off all of the indicators that are unique to those handful of events crazy behavior check check the Bitcoins of the world and the cryptocurrencies the meme stocks of the AMC GameStop variety I could even add my Quantum scape and very rapid acceleration the prior year in 2020 where the NASDAQ more than doubled in the year and even from the beginning pre-covered was up almost 60 percent up almost 60 percent despite a huge Wipeout from coven so rapid acceleration is a characteristic you have to see crazy behavior you have to see and then there is a unique and special case and that is on the upside and that's important on the upside the Blue Chips start to win and the stocks with a very high volatility that normally go up one and a half or two times the Blue Chips they don't even get the sign right and they start to go down 1929 the specs the really crazy stocks went down all year little known fact that they did the day before the crash they were down 30 as an index nothing like that happened again until 1972 1972 in the nifty 50 the s p went up 17 and the average Big Board start went down 17 so that I could remember it forever symmetry nothing like that happened again until 2000 and then in 2000 in the tech bubble the dot comes peeled off in March and really collapsed and then through the summer the junior grows the medium grows and then finally the senior growth all peeled off and by the early fall most of them were down 50 and some of the dot-coms were down a lot more but the s p was unchecked which meant that the 70 that was not growth had gone up 18 so the s p Blue Chips had gone up 80 and the growth and the NASDAQ and the dot-coms had taken a very big hit that is absolutely classic now starting early last year one by one the various most speculative groups that had done brilliantly in 2020 started to do bad these great bubbles have nothing to do very very little to do with the underlying reality that started in 2020 December and then the meme stop started March April and Bitcoin April May June and so on and then one by one most of the advanced techie stocks started to come down an arc peaked out a couple of months later and has of course declined 75 Park is the whole portfolio of 25 growth stocks that often have no earnings but do have at least in the portfolio managers believe huge prospects but that kind of stock is very vulnerable to a loss of confidence and therefore it started the decline pretty early and continues today right into the teeth of the cellar so this Market has been proceeding eerily like 2000 and I think phase one superficially you have a 2000 Tech bubble horribly overpriced much too much enthusiasm huge buy-in by individuals fueled by a massive program of cash distribution associated with it bailout a lot of that found its way into the stock market so this was Sensational so that's phase one phase two which I really worry about is this whole thing morphing into what I call the 1970s underlying inflation as an everyday topic once again it may not be spiking in the 70s it came and went came and went came it was always part of the background discussion and uh that's what I think it will be now for quite a long time several years and similarly interest rates were always a worry in the 1970s and they will be a worry for quite a few years to come beyond that longer term I worry that we are fairly deep into running out of the cheapest most available resources I think that turning point was 2002 between 1900 and 2002 the average important commodity came down 70 in real price adjusted for impleisure and we keep our own index at GMO 30 sex most important equal weighted Commodities this is not dominated by oil this is looking at the breadth of what is happening to Commodities and then if you look at that again today it is not down 70 percent it's down 10 since 1900 and rounding it so it's gone from down 70 or 30 on an index basis to 90.
it has tripled since 2002 the average important commodity has tripled in real terms since 2002. and that's not the end the worst is yet to come Jeremy Grantham said that we don't have lithium copper nickel Cobalt and silicon reserves on which our future markets could work however we need more and more products we want to produce more batteries we want to go electric and bring in the Green Revolution which won't be possible if we don't have the metal that can build our future yet the capitalistic system is already under threat because we neither have Capital reserves more have the great Workforce we had in the past producing products and goods that could be exported and imported can become Just a Dream because manifesting it will no longer be possible the world has to forget the time when countries would trade and sell and buy the best products from each other populations of the most populated countries like China are declining and simply in the future they won't have a sufficient Workforce that could produce the demanded products when that's the situation of a country like China you can imagine what it would be the situation like in other countries like the U.S and European countries and yet conflicts and Wars like that of Russia and Ukraine have started which are ushering in an energy crisis and triggering inflation simultaneously surprisingly we may even have to face famines because Russia and Ukraine are the biggest crop producers without them the world would be start because at this moment we're using the earlier yields we don't yet know how it is when we cannot find food in the supermarkets today households don't have savings because they spent them during covet 19.
while the leftover was spent during a time of high inflation however people didn't know that inflation was not the end it was a start and high inflation was yet to unfold now during the time when the prices of assets and commodities are declining while prices of Necessities are increasing people don't have money to buy them people are unaware that this time the bubble won't bring the prices of goods and products down rather the prices will Skyrocket while people won't have money to buy them listen to what Jeremy Grantham said about that haven't done any capex some great Reserves agreeing the economy we're simply going to run light of these Metals we need technology to design a way around them new batteries that don't use so much recycling techniques to save what we have etc etc we have Bad actors around the world as we see in the Ukraine with Russia an unstable situation such as this that we are likely to see with food does not bode well the other thing we have to bear in mind is that the developed World in China beginning to run out of people in any developed country except Israel we're not replacing our people and nor is China we're all collectively having a fertility rate as we sit of about 1.6 and we need 2.1 to replace so each cohort that babies is running now about a quarter below replacement so if you're running out of Labor and we have been for quite a few years so we know that the cohorts of 20 year olds starting now will be declined guaranteed over the next 20 years so you have a shortage of Labor which feels inflationary you have a shortage of cheap plentiful resources Metals food which feels inflationary and you have a very tricky complicated situation on which we could spend an hour on energy as we try and transition from fossil fuels to green and we will be lucky if that is not inflationary it may not be but it may be so all in all we Face some very intractable inflationary problems that we have not faced it's one thing squeezing your labor for the five or ten years we've been squeezing our labor since 75.
that's 25 35 47 years and a lot of that is not profitable in any way they are losing the ability to be healthy viable members of the economic Society some of them and if you look at the growth rate of the US economy yes it's had a very flashy top 10 percent the fangs are brilliant Enterprises probably a better handful of companies than we ever had at any time before in terms of their unique ability to move fast and make new ideas but if you look down further down the system you find the level of new Enterprises undertaken in the U.S is way down the number of people in companies one or two years old is half of what it was in the 1970s as per capita basis we're simply not as broadly adventurous and capitalistic as we used to be why not well for one thing there are no Capital reserves you can't even raise enough money to start a barber shop you ask how much money do you have in reserve and a third of Americans can't put together five hundred dollars you know this is not a healthy system that we've developed and the growth rate of the US economy has slowed More Than People realize that the product activity component has slowed down from 1.8 to about 0.9 for the last 15 years 0.9 now it's still semi-dignified but 1.8 compounds a whole lot better and the problem there is you add to productivity you add the increase in the workforce and back in the 60s you were adding one and a half percent a year to the workforce in the next 20 years we'll be lucky if we only subtract 0.2 percent so we've had an enormous drop of 1.7 a year in labor and maybe more and we've had a pretty steady drop of 0.9 in productivity this is indicative that all is not healthy and I think these Central poison to the system is a blinding increase in inequality and what do you think how difficult will the situation be when all these deadly problems will bend together are you preparing for such a time when prices of goods will increase while savings will not be enough
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