저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 미 연준 긴축 속 단기 반등 가능성은 있으나 경기침체 우려가 커 과도한 낙관은 경계해야 한다. 시장 상황: 2022년 들어 S&P500 약 13%, 나스닥 약 22%, 다우 20% 가까이 하락했다는 언급이 있다. 금리·인플레이션: 연준이 50bp 인상을 두 차례(6월·7월) 하고 이후 금리가 약 2% 부근에서 멈출 것이라는 시장 인식이 형성됐다. 10년 기대인플레이션(break-even)은 4월 고점 이후 하락했고 기업 신용 스프레드 확대는 자본비용 상승 신호로 본다. 단기 전망: 조건상 강한 랠리 가능성은 있으나 일시 반등(dead cat bounce)일 수도 있다. 중요한 인플레이션 지표 발표를 앞두고 불확실성이 크다. 경기 전망: 데이비드 색스는 주택담보대출 금리 상승과 스타트업 비용 절감을 들어 경기 둔화·침체가 임박했다고 봤다. 출연자들은 연준이 2021년 하반기 QE를 너무 오래 유지해 자산 버블을 키웠고, 긴축이 실물경제를 침체로 몰고 갈 것이라고 평가했다. 밸류에이션: 일부 기업은 PER 10~12배로 싸 보이지만 이익 추정치가 과대평가됐다면 실제로는 비싸다. 향후 2~3분기에 걸쳐 이익 하향이 나올 수 있다고 봤다. 리스크: 이익 추정 부정확성, 연준 정책 실패, 경기 침체가 핵심 위험으로 제시됐다. 출연자 전망: 단기 랠리 가능성은 열어두되 중기적으로 시장 하락과 경기 침체를 경고하는 쪽이다.
다듬은 글
expert like chamad Pia Patia Jason kenis David socks and Brad Kastner have all commented on the markets Free Fall which has yet to find a sustainable upward Trend and billionaire investor chamat P fatia has voiced alarm over Rising inflation in the Federal Reserves tightening monetary policy he has predicted that the current economic condition will persas even after implementing the fed's tightening measures chaa thinks we could have a mini rally which would be fine and if it is indeed brief this upswing could be final one before a major economic recession hey there I'm Jules and welcome to investing we Academy in this video let's talk about an important advice for investors where the next 27 days are critical and we must act now one of the most well-known investors chamat ptia has been warning of a severe economic downturn beginning towards the end of 2021 for a while now and it's has been reflected in the gloomy readings on the deiser since 2022 began the S&P 500 Index has lost about 133% the NASDAQ composite index has dropped almost 22% and the do Jones Industrial Average will fall over 20% in 2022 David socks also expressed his apprehensions about the stock markets which he sees as precarious and predicted will crash catastrophically in the near future so it is beneficial to hear what the professional in the field of Finance have to say about the current state of stock markets so let's hear from the experts but before we do that make sure to hit the like And subscribe buttons and let's do it we still had some amount of rate uncertainty from the FED I think people weren't sure how aggressively they were going to hike but by early this week it was pretty clear there's going to be two 50o hikes one in June and one in July and then effectively a pause because then the FED funds rate will be at around 2% and everything from there will probably be path and data dependent okay that's effectively what they said now I think the the markets had actually already started to see that writing on the wall so if you go back to you know one of our favorite measures which is the 10-year break even it's effectively rolled over which meant that you which means that from the highs in sort of late April it started to come down which says that you know they were thinking that you know the inflation was not going to be as bad in the back half of the year and then the second is that corporate credit which is really what matters in some ways to the FED because that's where they can intervene what is the spread above treasuries that a company can issue debt when it goes crazy and it goes up it means oh no the cost of capital is going up that's going to be hard for companies to raise money they may have to lay people off they may need to get into cost cutting mode right that's what goes through everybody's mind shamat agrees that the condition are favorable for a possible strong rally but he doesn't know if this rise will last or if it will be a dead cat bounce or bare Market rally in which Market briefly recovers before plunging again he also mentioned that crucial inflation statistics will soon be made public causing much anxiety among investors he claims that we're now at a breed Halt and there's a possibility of anything happening in addition he predicted that inflation would be low and growth would be moderate if this data turned out to be quite solid meaning prices were not Rising as quickly as we had believed that provides the FED with ample justification for easing off the gas David scks further explained that the rising cost of house loan substantially increases the cost of purchasing a property consequently that will have a role in shaping a wide range of consumers decision and the total cost may increase when something is paid for with Al loone he also noted that businesses are cutting back on exponentials and putting on the braks and Trend that especially eved in the startup industry all the new companies are cutting costs ultimately trickling up to the established ones according to him it look like a severe economic slowdown or recession is on the horizon for the country it's been months of his insisting the economy is in recession the FED is in a difficult position because many Rec warning signs are flashing red at the moment but inflation remains stubbornly High therefore they definitely are in difficult position now let's listen to what he says further about this I think what the FED should have done is in 2020 hindsight is back last summer we first got that shock CPI print remember it was like 5.1% seemed to come out of the blue because for years and years we've been talking about inflation nobody thought inflation was a problem all of a sudden we got that 5.1% print they were in total denial about it they they just dismissed it saying that inflation was transitory and you know Yellen said the same thing and so basically everyone just ignored the data for 6 months and what they should have done was stop QE right then and there they could have taken a little bit of time to think out you know a rate increase strategy but they were still basically engaging in QE for 9 months after that you know first inflation warning and if they had stopped QE there then we wouldn't have had this asset bubble in the second half of last year that's when it inflated the most and we could have had more of a soft Landing unfortunately now uh they let the they kept inflating and really until the end of q1 and they've yanked away the punch bow so violently that I think the real economy is going to go into recession so that's where we are right now I mean I don't know what the what the right answer is now given that we're in this you know almost stag inflationary position now in response chaman stated that in his opinion we're currently in reasonable position now the real question is what you need to do to get Market to go down he said this is a weaker point but consider current state of affairs when considered cheap companies similar to how frequently we hear about Google and Facebook the general public will view this as extremely low price so the price to earnings ratio is over the roof if you run a screen on it at 10 11 or even 12 times additionally he advised you to qu question whether or not your current profit is fair also the market could fall if you believe profits are being wrongly projected take snap who has utterly messed up their lives he has never encountered a corporation with a greater tendency of self- imitating on earning skulls there have been three occasion in the previous four years where disaster skulls were made due to the bad scripting or lack of rehearsal on the part of Evan or those assisting him in preparation for such events now Snapchat will do this regularly perhaps once every 18 months whereas Facebook has only done a few in its history hisory he said that the price drop at 48% or something and spread to other it businesses causing them to lose 8% to 10% of their value his point is that you had better hope the earnings were right if you think Facebook and Google are cheap at 10 times this is because the reported earnings are incorrect he believes that this risk is currently the biggest threat in the market as it concerns the possibility that all of this slowdown truly contract spend and the earnings are genuinely inaccurate expected profits will need to be lowered over the following two or three quarters and that's presumably where we'll see the B it's a great example if GDP slows in the FED does what Brad suggested just make small adjustment to your course earning a degree here and a degree there so what do you think share your thoughts in the comment section below so guys before you leave if you want to support this channel more please consider trying our super thanks where your comments will be highlighted and join our membership program to support this channel more and please do note we're trying to improve our quality of content and your tips and recommendation to enhance it will be highly appreciated and that's the end of this video thank you so much for watching if you're new to this channel make sure to subscribe and hit the notification Bell button to get updated on our latest videos again this is Jules and don't forget to like this video and see you next time
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