저자: 미상 · 외국인
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마이클 버리(Michael Burry)가 2023년 8월 공시된 13F 자료로 나스닥100(QQQ) 풋옵션 약 7.39억 달러, S&P500 풋옵션 약 8.86억 달러를 매수해 미국 증시 급락에 베팅한 것으로 소개됨. 영상은 풋옵션 비용을 약 210만 달러로 추정하며 버리의 숏 포지션이 2008년 대비 상대적으로 작다고 주장함. 버리 회사 씨온(Scion)은 2분기에 중국 주식 JD.com과 알리바바를 매도하고 퍼스트리퍼블릭 등 지역은행 지분을 정리한 것으로 언급됨. 반대로 여행·헬스케어·미디어 관련 종목인 엑스피디아(EXPE), MGM리조트, CVS, 시그나(CI), 워너브라더스디스커버리(WBD) 등은 매수한 것으로 소개됨. 씨온의 2020년 5월~2023년 5월 연환산 수익률을 약 56%로 제시하며 S&P500 약 12%를 크게 상회한다고 평가함. 진행자는 버리가 과거 실수도 있었다고 언급하며 증시 버블 붕괴 가능성을 경고하는 것으로 정리됨. 영상은 씨온 포트폴리오 구성, 상위 보유 종목 비중, 버리의 투자 원칙(저평가·재무 건전성 중시)을 설명하며 마무리됨. 출연자 전망은 명확한 1~3개월 가격 예측보다는 장기적 약세 경계 성격이 강함.
다듬은 글
in today's video I'm going to talk about one of the most famous and controversial investors in the world Michael bur assuming bur bought the most expensive options of those listed in their article providing protection for a 1 to 2% decline through November his total cost would be $2.1 million that's right only $ 42.1 million for a $1.6 billion bet that means that bur's big short comes at a relatively minimal cost of approximately 2.5% of the value of his portfolio so why is he doing this well we don't know for sure but we can speculate maybe he's just hedging his other positions in case of a market downturn maybe he's part of a wider scheme with a longer term goal maybe he's just trying to get some attention and publicity or maybe he's just wrong this time we don't know but we know that his current bets are not as risky or profitable as his previous ones so don't let the media headlines scare you bur's latest big short is not so big after all but that's not all there's more to B story than just his bearish bets in this video I'm going to tell you what else he's doing with his money besides betting against the market I'm going to tell you why he's getting out of regional banks in China I will reveal to you what stocks he is buying and selling how much he is investing in each stock and why he is choosing these stocks and I'm going to tell you how his investment record compares to the market average so stay tuned and watch this video Until the End to learn more about Michael bur and his bets Michael bur you may know him is the guy who predicted the 2008 housing crash and made billions by betting against the subprime mortgage Market he was featured in the book and movie The Big Short where he was played by Christian Bale well guess what he's back at it again and this time he's betting more than 1.6 billion on a Wall Street Crash that's right according to Securities filings released on Monday bur's company cion Asset Management has bought put options worth $739 million against the Invesco QQQ trust ETA f a fund made up of popular NASDAQ 100 companies like meta Amazon and Nvidia he has also hedged 886 million against the sand p500 in put options put options are an agreement to sell assets at a fixed price on or before a certain date usually indicating the seller has a defensive or pessimistic outlook on the market so what does this mean it means that bur is expecting a major crash in the stock market sometime soon and he's not alone other prominent investors and analyst have also been warning that the market is overvalued and due for correction but before you panic and sell everything let me tell you something important bur's latest big short is not so big after all in fact it's quite small compared to his 2008 subprime bets you see the filings do not reveal what bur's company paid for the options or when they will have to sell them but we can estimate the cost of these options based on some assumptions and data from reputable sources in addition to his bearish bets against the sandp 500 and NASDAQ 100 bur has also been making some interesting moves with his other Investments according to the filings bur's fund is also getting out of its shares in several Regional Banks it sold its 150,000 shares of First Republic Bank and holdings in Huntington Bank pack West and Western Alliance it's unclear whether these sales took place before or after JP Morgan Chase took over First Republic Bank in May bur also reversed course on Chinese stocks selling his shares of jd.com and Alibaba in the second quarter of the Year this comes amid fears of contagion within the Chinese economy which may be facing a property sector crash after the country's largest private real estate developer Country Garden sought to delay payment on a private Bond so why is bur selling these stocks we can only guess but maybe he's worried about the rising interest rates the Regulatory crackdowns and the geopolitical tensions affecting these sectors maybe he's also seeing some signs of weakness or overvaluation in these markets that are not obvious to the average investor or maybe he's just taking some profits and reallocating his Capital to other opportunities we don't know but we do know that bur is not afraid to go against the crowd and make bold moves but what is he buying instead well it turns out he still has some faith in some sectors and companies about 6% of his Company's stock portfolio is long and in the second quarter of the year he increased his exposure to the travel and healthcare industry purchasing shares of Expedia group ticker code expe MGM Resorts with ticker code MGM CVS and signal with a ticker code CI bur also purchased $4.7 million shares worth of CNN parent company Warner Brothers Discovery and $3.3 million in online secondhand retailer the real real so why is bur buying these stocks again we can only speculate but maybe he's seeing some value and growth potential in these sectors that are not fully priced in by the market maybe he's also anticipating a recovery in travel demand a boost in healthcare spending and a rise in Media conc consumption and online shopping or maybe he's just diversifying his portfolio and hedging his risks we don't know but we do know that bur is not just a onetick pony he has a wide range of interests and strategies but how good is he really how does his investment record compareed to the market average according to an analysis by sure dividend Traders following the Investments disclosed by cion over the last 3 years between May 2020 and may 2023 would have made annualized returns of 56% over the the same period the sand p500 had annualized returns of about 12% that's impressive that means that bur has outperformed the market by a huge margin of course past performance is not a guarantee of future results and bur has also made some mistakes and losses along the way in January he tweeted sell by March however he had backtracked and said he was wrong to say sell but it's hard to deny that he has a knack for spotting Trends and opportunities that others miss or ignore before we delve into Bur latest Holdings and his investor profile let's take a moment to get to know him better Michael bur is the CEO and founder of Scion Asset Management a hedge fund that manages approximately $119 million as of Q2 2023 he is renowned for his knack for identifying undervalued and overlooked opportunities in the market and his willingness to take daring risks and go against the norm bur has a bearish outlook on the US Stock Market which he believes is in a bubble and bound to crash he is buying put options on the sand P 500 NASDAQ 100 indices which gives him the right to sell these indices at a lower price in the future he considers these indices to be overpriced and inflated by low interest rates quantitative easing stimulus checks meme stocks cryptocurrencies spacks nfts and other forms of speculation bur is also warning about the dangers of inflation debt and currency devaluation however although he is betting against the US Stock Market as a whole he is also investing in some individual stocks that he believes are undervalued and have strong fundamentals these stocks constitute his portfolio as of Q2 2023 which consists of 31 stocks with a total value of $119 million according to stock Circle the top Holdings are Expedia Group Inc expe 9.5% of his portfolio worth $1.2 million with 100,000 shares Charter Communications in class A chtr 9% of his portfolio worth $10.7 million with 25,000 shares Sigma group that CI 6.7% of his portfolio worth $7.97 million with 27,500 shares CVS Health Corp CVS 6.3% of his portfolio worth $ 7.43 million with 100,000 shares MGM Resorts International MGM 5.8% of his portfolio worth $ 6.85 million with 150,000 shares signate Jeweler's LTD SI 5.
6% of his portfolio worth $6.6 million with $85,000 shares gener Holdings Inc gnrc 5.2% of his portfolio worth $ 6.17 million Laredo Petroleum Inc LPI 5.1% of his portfolio stellantis n.v stla 5.1% of his portfolio warmer Brothers Discovery Inc Class A wbd 4.3% of his portfolio these are the top 10 Holdings of Michael B portfolio as reported by stock Circle you can find the full list of his Holdings and their performance on the website as you can see most of his stocks are in the travel media entertainment Health Care energy and Automotive sectors these sectors have been hit hard by the pandemic and the lockdowns but also have the potential to recover and grow in the post-pandemic world Michael bu is betting on these stocks because he thinks that they are cheap resilient and profitable and that they have a competitive advantage in their respective markets he is also looking for stocks that that have a strong balance sheet a high free cash flow a low debt to equity ratio and a high return on Equity these are some of the criteria that he uses to evaluate stocks and find Value in the market he is not interested in overhyped overvalued or unprofitable stocks such as Tesla Netflix Amazon or Facebook he is also not interested in stocks that are dependent on government policies regulations or subsidies such as Renewable Energy electric vehicles or biotechnology he is looking for stocks that can stand on their own feet and deliver consistent results regardless of the market conditions he is also looking for stocks with a long-term vision and a clear growth strategy to create value for their shareholders he is not looking for quick profits or short-term gains but rather for long-term returns and compounding effects he is a patient and disciplined investor who does his own research and Analysis and does not follow the crowd or the media he is also a contrarian investor who goes against popular opinion and finds opportunities where others see problems he is not afraid to be wrong or lose money in the short term as long as he is right in the long term he is confident in his convictions and sticks to his principles he is a Visionary and a genius who sees things others don't he is Michael bur one of the best investors in the world the big short initially a bestselling book published in 2010 told the story of the people who believed the housing bubble was going to burst including Mr bur who was thought to have made about $100 million from the crash so what do you think do you agree with bur's bearish Outlook do you think he's right or wrong do you like his other Investments let me know in the comments below and if you enjoyed this video please give it a thumbs up and subscribe to our channel for more content like this thanks for watching and I'll see you next time if you want to catch up on L shareholder meeting check it out on this next video click right here and enjoy
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