저자: Fred/영상내주요인물MichaelBurry · 외국인
요약 보기
Michael Burry가 2008년 이후 최대 규모의 금융 붕괴를 예상하며, 소비자 저축 감소와 신용카드 부채 증가가 소비자 주도 경기침체로 이어질 것이라고 주장한다. 핵심 근거: 2009년 이후 공적부채가 4배 이상(30조 달러 이상)으로 늘었고, 개인저축률은 2008년 수준으로 하락했으며, 리볼빙 신용카드 부채는 사상 최고 수준이다. 미국 개인저축/GDP 비율은 역대 최저(2005년 7월 1.5%)에 근접할 수 있다고 주장했다. 순환흐름 모형 관점에서 소비 위축 → 기업이익 감소 → 가계소득 감소의 악순환이 시작될 수 있다고 설명한다. 거시 비교: 1970년대 스태그플레이션과 비교했으나, Burry는 현재가 출산율 저하(1950년대 수준)와 노동참가율 하락(대퇴직 현상)으로 인해 더 나쁘다고 본다. 정치·사회 요인: 바이든 정부의 5.8조 달러 예산이 인플레이션 환경에서 부채 문제를 악화시킨다고 비판했고, 대법원의 로 대 웨이드 재검토, 살인율 상승 등 사회적 혼란을 언급했다. 달러 인덱스 상승은 다른 법정화폐 대비 상대적 강세일 뿐이며, 실물 대비로는 달러 가치가 하락 중이라고 주장한다. 현재 버블은 1920년대보다 투기적이고, 1990년대보다 고평가이며, 1970년대보다 지정학·경제적 긴장이 크다고 평가했다. Burry의 포트폴리오: 인플레이션 저항력이 있는 기업(브리스톨마이어스 2천만 달러, 페이스북·구글 각 1,800만 달러 등)에 투자했고, 애플 3,500만 달러 풋옵션을 보유한 것으로 알려졌다. 채권시장에 대한 대규모 숏 포지션이 있을 것으로 해설되었다. 진행자 Fred는 Burry가 대폭락을 예측하며 수십억 달러를 벌 수 있다고 전망했다. 참고: 본 영상은 2022년 8월 게시된 영상으로, 영상 내 예측(대폭락·경기침체)은 이후 실제 전개와 다를 수 있다.
다듬은 글
Michael bur is famous for his huge shorts but he'll be remembered for the massive short too bur is now betting on the greatest financial disaster in the history of the United States yes we're talking about a crash worse than the 2008 recession the dotom Boom the Great Depression and the great inflation burri is expected to be the father of all crashes accompanied by the greatest drop in corporate earnings within the next few months the world will awaken to this issue and burri will once again earn billions hey there welcome to yet again another video of investing wise Academy this is Fred and let's get right into it the previous 13 years were the longest bull market in in US history since 2008 the value of the S&P 500 has climbed by more than six times this exceptional price increase was compensated for by Rising responsibilities since 2009 the overall public debt has more than quadruple to more than $30 trillion while it's hard to determine how much debt is too much accumulating trillions of dollars in debt every year is unsustainable the rising debt level is accompanied by a precipitous drop in consumer savings the personal savings rate in United States is now at levels not seen since 2008 despite inflation overall personal savings have fallen to levels not seen in nearly a decade it is quite disturbing that overall savings are dropping while billions of dollars are being added to the economy to make matters worse credit card de is an alltime high indicating that the consumer is becoming weaker by the day Michael bur tweeted that us personal savings fell to 2013 levels the saving rate to 2008 levels while revolving credit card debt grew at a record setting Pace back to precovered Peak despite all those trillions of dollars of cash drops in their Labs looming a consumer recession and more earnings trouble as the economy operates on a circular cycle a weakened consumer has a direct influence on company sales businesses and consumers deal in the manufacturing Market by trading labor for Revenue the product Market is the inverse of this when households buy things from which corporations earn because families have less purchasing power the product Market will suffer decreased activity decreased product consumption will result in lower business earnings lower corporate earnings will cause the factor market to deteriorate reducing household income and thus hurting the Goods Market this is a positive feedback loop because a single negative occurrence can start an unending downward cycle economists refer to this as the circular flow model since economic calamities at any point in the cycle are infectious consider the circular flow concept to be like pouring one drop of food coloring into a peel of water the entire bucket of water will be colored in a couple of seconds bur provides quantifiable evidence on why a drop in consumer sentiment will lead to a slump the rationale for this is that low consumer activity will reduce business profitability lowering household income and resulting in even fewer savings birie reaffirmed his remark by demonstrating the decline tendency of us personal savings to GDP charting total us personal savings GDP Redline has the alltime low at 1.5% set in July 2005 at the last 12 months rate of depletion of savings could hit that level between September and December this year borrowing time a graph indicating a cyclical drop in the personal savings to GDP ratio is attached to the Tweet bur is advocating for a consumer-led recession but he is not alone in 2019 Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell expressed concern about the expanding national debt the overall US debt at the time was around 22 trillion that figure has already risen to more than $30 trillion a 36% growth in 3.5 years all of this is frightening but you may be asking what level of collapse we are discussing leading economists throughout the world frequently relate our current position to that of the 1970s when the United States faced double digit inflation the 1970s are typically seen as a time of stagflation since the economy endured both high unemployment and high inflation due to limited consumer spending power these era cor responded with a record spike in the misery index consider a moment in which you are not only unemployed but your money is also worthless that may appear alarming but bur feels that our current predicament is orders of magnitude worse than the 1970s Michael bur stated that some compare the US of today to the 1970s but the 1970s saw rapidly growing labor force participation due to the postor War II Baby Boom we have the opposite today bir birth rates at 1950 levels and nuclear families and 1959 levels despite a two times larger population don't help burri refers to our current scenario as the polar opposite of the 1970s for two reasons the birth rate and the labor force participation rate the 1950s are regarded as the baby boom era because fertility rates skyrocketed this significantly enlarged the workforce allowing for increasing economic activity in the 1970s add to it a substantial growth in labor force participation and the situation wasn't as dire as it appeared our current situation is the polar reverse of this despite having a population that is doubled that of the 1970s we have a birth rate that is half that of the 1950s not only that but the labor force participation rate has been steadily declining due to widespread res ation the great resignation was a time that began in the spring of 2021 when a massive inflow of American employees began abandoning their employment low compensation poor career chances disres and a variety of other factors contributed to these resignations so the 1970s were a terrible time with a lot of social upheavals but picture what would happen in 2022 if we have station as well as a really poor labor market bur tweeted an article the parallels between the 2020s and the 1970s grow more numerous by the day the economy faces the threat of stagflation fuel prices are surging and shortages Loom politicians are flailing the international environment is deteriorating the Supreme Court is revisiting the 1973 Row versus Wade ruling the homicide rate is storing a made of General sense of social breakdown while bur was kidding about sleep Knot's music videos he tweeted starting shooting the generals in September 2000 January 2008 and April 2022 and he feels our present bubble is the mother of all bubbles in late 2021 he tweeted about how we have more specul than the 1920s more overvaluation than the 1990s more geopolitical and economic Strife than the 1970s players grabbing the barrel of Kyle ridden housee rifle while the atack golf and at Federal Reserve not approvingly in addition to noting the similarities with other disasters burri also openly referred to the present bubble as the greatest speculative bubble of all times in all things by two orders of magnitude although the economy is in a bad State a powerful government can Aid in the alleviation of various economic and social difficulties President Joe Biden has not been like this the great majority of economists have expressed concern about how Biden has exacerbated government debt problems through excessive fiscal expenditure Biden's budget was $5.8 trillion accounting for more than a quarter of the total US GDP this amount of expenditure during an inflationary environment will only exacerbate arker and problem bur expressed his displeasure with Biden's budgetary expenditures by saying wishing a real potato was precedent some may argue that the dollar Index is rising implying that the US currency is in good shape the dollar Index on the other hand compares the US dollar to other FIA currency firet currencies are supported by the government such as the Chinese Yuan or Russian rubbles comparing to the US dollar to other International Paper currencies is pointless since we are in a worldwide crisis he also warned about this by saying when you see mention of the strong dollar the almighty dollar please remember this is only in relation to other fire currencies the dollar is not at all strong and it is not getting stronger we all see it every single day in crisis of everything in other words the US dollar is becoming more valuable in contrast to other fire currencies however when compared to actual things the dollar is weakening by the day Michael bur's macroeconomic thesis is straightforward however few people will heal his warnings Warren Buffett was one investor who did not listen to bur before the 20 eight crash Buffett then expressed sorrow and declared publicly that he should have investigated bur's notion Michael bur believes this will happen again and tweeted a video in which Buffet refers to him as Cassandra in Greek mythology Cassandra is a Trojan Priestess who made genuine prophecies that no one believed Buffett referred to bur as Cassandra because he was presenting an accurate forecast that everyone ignored Congress but don't we expect referees to make the call yeah even if they're going to get booed yeah and they made the wrong call I mean they they they basically believed as most of the American public did and you couldn't have had this size bubble without overwhelming and the Cassandras were there but who was going to listen to John Paulson in 2005 or 2006 from Michael bur I mean they it didn't mean anything bur had Wagers against the market that allowed him to make billions during the 2008 crisis and he still does bur does profit from Market crashes but he does not like doing so as I said about 2008 it is like watching a plane crash it hurts it is not fun and I'm not smiling so we now know that burri is forecasting a massive Market meltdown that might lead to the big short too however how can he profit from the impending market crash according to his SEC filings he is acquiring shares in stable inflationary resistant firms this includes a $20 million investment in Bristol Meyers an $18 million investment in both Facebook and Google Shares and several other firms in a similarly strong position a strong mode and significant pricing power are two fundamental commonalities between these organizations these firms will be able to boost prices during an inflation environment while crushing their competition if they have both of these criteria bur also just stated that he had a $35 million put option on Apple shares this is most likely a hedge against his positions on Facebook and Google Apple will incur Rising material prices but Facebook and Google will not but more crucially bur is expected to have a significant short position in the bond market which he is not required to reveal to the public michaelb is once again constructing his portfolio for massive profits in the coming months and he may make billions again let me know what you think of bur in the comments below how are you planning for a market crash if you like this video please like And subscribe and I'll see you in the next one again this is Fred and see you on the next one
Comments 0