저자: PeterSchiff,BrentShoty · 외국인
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Peter Schiff는 미국 경제가 금융위기로 향하고 있으며 연준이 인플레이션을 잡지 못할 것이므로 금 등 실물자산과 해외자산에 투자하고 미국 주식·채권은 피해야 한다고 주장. 연준 전망: 다음 주 FOMC에서 75bp 인상은 예상되나 100bp 가능성은 낮다는 견해. 인상은 너무 작고 늦어 인플레이션 곡선 뒤처짐이 계속된다고 봄. 재정 정책: 인플레감축법·칩스법·학자금 대출 탕감 등 재정지출이 인플레이션 문제에 역행한다고 비판하며 대규모 정부지출 삭감 필요를 강조. Brent Shoty 시각: 연준 금리 인상 폭은 75bp로 보며, 선행 주택 가격 하락이 향후 CPI를 낮출 것으로 예상. 시장 바닥은 이미 형성되었고 신고가는 2023년이 아닌 그 이후 시점에 가능하다고 봄. 기술적 지표도 바닥을 지지한다고 언급. 포지션: Shoty는 원자재·물가연동채(TIPS)를 보유 중이며, 저평가된 해외주식과 미국 소형주(S&P600, 2022년 실적 기준 PER 약 11배, 정상 밸류 18~20배 대비 할인)를 선호. Schiff는 금·원자재·광산주·해외자산을 매수 중. 시장 상황: 발언 당시 다우 약 1,087포인트 하락, 나스닥 약 562포인트 하락, 러셀2000 약 3.6% 하락, 금 약 1.3% 하락(1,713달러대) 상태로 제시됨. 리스크/조건: Schiff는 연준이 인플레이션을 잡지 못하고 경기침체와 금융위기가 동시에 올 것이라는 전제 위에서 금·달러 약세를 전망. 인플레이션 정점은 수년 뒤일 것으로 봄. 결론: Schiff는 연준 실패를 가정해 투자하라고 권고하며, Shoty는 바닥이 형성됐고 미국 소형주·해외주식이 매력적이라고 봄.
다듬은 글
the markets at this hour as i said now pricing in not just a 100 probability of an at least 75 basis point hike at the fed meeting next week but now 24 percent of the market is betting on a 100 basis point tightening so as the markets tank we have team fox business coverage joining me now for the floor show northwestern mutual wealth management cio brent shooty with 237 billion in assets under management he believes the market has put in a bottom euro pacific capital chief economist and global strategist peter schiff is probably shaking his head i can only imagine uh i want to start with you peter what does this mean for the fed what's the fed's next move next week as it begins its two-day meeting on september 20th well the fed is going to hike rates i doubt they'll go 100 basis points but even if they did it would not matter you know i don't understand why markets are still surprised when you get higher than expected inflation numbers inflation is going to continue to get stronger even as the economy gets weaker and in fact the fed actually falls further behind the inflation curve every time it hikes rates because these rate hikes are too little too late the fed needs to make interest rates positive to do anything to bend the curve they have to get rates above the rate of inflation and until they do that they're spinning in the wind and meanwhile what really has to happen is we need massive cuts in government spending and the government is doing the opposite we have the the inflation reduction act we have the the chips act we have forgiving student loans all of this is additional spending which is the worst thing you want to do when you have an inflation problem well uh brett we're looking at a dow loss here now of nearly two let's see 1100 points we're at 1087 to the downside here you believe that uh the lows are in for the markets how can that be if we may very well see a one percent although peter doesn't agree uh hike in rates next week well i don't think you're going to see one percent high in rates i agree with peter on that front that you'll see 75 basis points look the reason why the market's down so much is all the forward-looking data continues to point to lower inflation and so that's where the big surprise has been is that this backward-looking inflation data is still higher one of the biggest components of that was shelter which has a 12 to 16 month lag with home prices and so you're now seeing the impact of home prices last year show up in the data i ask you where you think home prices are going in the future you have seen the housing market go from absolute boom to bust and you'll see prices decline which will bring down inflation if i take you back to the 60s 70s and 80s when cpi peaked the market bottomed i don't believe this time will be any different and there's a technical setup too that supports my conclusions i think the market is going to be back and forth based upon every single trading data like this point which is a one month data point uh but i do think the bottoms are in you're gonna push higher not until 2023 but you will see new highs done all right we got two of you here both of you are buyers and sellers i would imagine and what are you doing right now peter are you buying anything on a day like this where depending on what you like things are a lot less expensive well first of all it is possible that the market will bottom when inflation peaks unfortunately we're years and years away from a peak of inflation this is not 1980.
it's more like 1970. this is just getting started okay are you buying finishing so well i'm buying the same stuff i've been buying for a decade preparing for this inflation it didn't just start now you know the fed sold the nation's soul to the inflation devil back in 2008 when it did qe and so now the devil is back to collect uh but i'm i'm prepared i've been buying foreign stocks i'm buying resources commodities uh mining stocks all the things that are going to shine chart here folks we are looking at gold at the moment down about one and a third percent to it's about a loss of 23 bucks to 1713.
uh 26 bucks actually um and and let me then shift it over to brett for the moment are you buying on a day like this or do you wait till the dust settles no we're we're fairly happy with how our position so we have owned commodities we've owned tips in the past and so we did think this inflation was coming based upon what happened during covenant as peter mentions in the prior years i just think a lot of what's happening right now is the aftershocks or the after effects of the giant shift in the economy that you saw from services to goods and moving back towards some sort of normal and so um we still own those but we want to continue to position in things that are cheaper so peter mentioned foreign stocks i don't disagree there and we like u.s small caps as represented by the s p 600 which traded 11 times uh 2022 earnings which may be discounted but still that gives you a margin of safety versus their normal more you know 18 to 20 valuation you know we're looking at session lows for the nasdaq here down about 562 points the russell getting clocked as well down 3.6 percent peter speak to our investor audience before we go here what is your best piece of advice at the moment yeah well first of all you know you mentioned that gold is down and the reason that it's down is because investors still don't understand that the fed is going to lose this fight with inflation that the economy is not only already in a recession but headed towards another financial crisis and so the fed despite rising inflation is ultimately going to try to stimulate the economy and so we're going to have the combination of a massive recession or depression with a financial crisis and rising inflation so all of this is bullish for gold it's bearish for the dollar so my advice is to your viewers is to tune out all the noise about how how the fed is going to succeed and how it's going to bring inflation back down to two percent and you better invest as if the fed is going to fail not succeed this is not 1980.
uh powell is not paul volcker you've got to do the opposite of what worked during the 1980s you got to do it worked in the 70s and that is getting out of u.s stocks getting out of u.s bonds and getting into commodities foreign assets and gold i feel so much better now not peter brent well i can help thank you thank you very much all right
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