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영상 결론: 마이클 배리가 지목한 패시브 투자 버블과 마이너스 금리 부채 확대로 인해 향후 큰 경고 신호가 나타나고 있으며, 연준의 국채 매입 변화와 글로벌 금리 인하 흐름을 주시해야 한다는 주장. 마이클 배리는 패시브 ETF 자금 유입이 주식·채권 가격을 부풀리고 있어 2000년대 후반 CDO와 유사한 버블을 형성한다고 경고. 버블이 오래 지속될수록 붕괴는 더 심각해질 것이라는 주장. 진행자는 자산 집중(FANG 등 소수 대형주 쏠림)과 패시브 투자 확대가 금융 위기 시 예측이 어려운 위험을 만든다고 설명. 잭 보글의 소수 기관투자자 의결권 집중 경고도 인용. 연준은 2019년 10월부터 MBS 원금 상환분을 국채로 재투자하며 국채 보유를 늘리는 방향으로 전환. 진행자는 이것이 QE4의 시작인지 여부는 추세를 더 지켜봐야 한다고 판단. 앨런 그린스펀은 마이너스 금리가 미국에도 확산될 것이라고 언급. 신흥국 중앙은행들이 일제히 금리를 인하하고 있다는 점을 근거로 제시. 마이너스 금리 부채는 글로벌 17조 달러를 넘어섰고 20조 달러로 빠르게 늘고 있다는 주장. 유로존·일본이 대부분을 차지하며, 유럽 은행주는 30년 이상 최저 수준이라고 설명. 뉴욕연은 총재의 저인플레이션 문제 발언을 근거로 향후 대규모 양적완화를 예상. 글로벌 PMI 연속 하락은 2008년과 2000년보다 나쁘다고 언급.
다듬은 글
the unbelievable debt load is impossible to escape it haunts the financial system it creates a system that is decaying just look around 17 trillion dollars of negative yielding debt trillions upon trillions printed out of thin air from central bankers and given to friends in high places maximum disparity in between the haves and the have-nots a system that is breaking down so what's the solution well the central bankers will surely project themselves at the right time claiming reluctance but acceptance to begin a torrent of printing and purchase assets of all kinds you've been warned you came here for the truth so let me unveil that for you today we are going to look at a few topics number one I want to talk about the next financial bubble very important we are also gonna look into what the Federal Reserve has done is this the beginning of QE four or is this just more status quo business as usual then we're gonna get into what's happening with negative yielding debt it has now expanded to 17 trillion dollars globally I've got a big video today let's get into it right away the big shorts Michael burry says he has found the next market bubble it's something that I have talked about over and over and over again we are talking about passive investments that is the ETF's watching as all of the financial assets disappear all of these active funds going away hedge funds closing up shop and you see trillions of dollars moving into ETFs passive investments are inflating stock and bond prices in a similar way that collateralized debt obligations did for subprime mortgages more than ten years ago according to Michael burry like most bubbles the longer it goes on the worse the crash will be is this something that I have talked about so many times before they can actually persist they can push this they can kick it down the road but the longer that it goes for the worse it's going to get that's what I have said numerous times of course you know that if you've been here on the channel he had a really good analogy here the theater keeps getting more crowded but the exit door is the same and it always was all the gets worse as you get into even less liquid equity and bond markets globally watch as all of these investments become squeezed down into fewer and fewer you get the fang stocks you have the tech stocks okay nobody is really investing in what they should be today simply because they are afraid they're looking at what they know they're simply saying that they're not going to go anywhere Apple's still gonna be there selling phones Amazon everybody buys everything on it therefore if I just put my money into these companies I will do well and I won't have to worry about my money and so on this is not the way it should be of course but this is where the money is flowing into fewer and fewer stocks and of course we have the problem with these asset bubbles that are expanding to a rate and nobody has ever seen before in the next financial crisis we don't necessarily know what's gonna happen with all of these passive funds because they were infinitesimal compared to where they are today it has really really grown this is Jack Bogle himself if historical trends continue a handful of giant institutional investors will one day hold voting control of virtually every large US corporation public policy cannot ignore this growing dominance and consider its impact on the financial markets corporate governance and regulation these will be major issues in the coming era can you believe it this is the man who basically created index funds saying what we have done here is going to create a problem in the future nobody really cares they're simply just putting their money in I'm gonna dollar-cost average I'm gonna buy the dip and I'm gonna be fine this right here is a warning and I hope that you are paying attention topic number two is the Federal Reserve this is the ten in the two year you watched how this inverted recently I've been talking about it you've been seeing it all over the news but of course we saw that the yield curve inversion took a turn and this isn't the only time this may happen it may happen five times ten times before we actually get this to persist but this right here the flattening of the yield curve started to spar some concerns about why this was the case why in fact was there a yield curve inversion and then a flattening of that yield curve in a time where there is exactly the same conditions nothing has changed so let's look at this at its absolute peak the Federal Reserve held approximately four point five trillion dollars in assets among that they had the mortgage-backed securities they had the Treasuries as well at one point here they decided that they would not buy any more Treasuries they would try to keep it at exactly the same level and for the most part they did that held on to it for a few years then they started their quantitative tightening policy it freaked out the markets and you know where we have been ever since the one thing that did not happen over the last several years was the Federal Reserve actually increasing the amount of Treasuries that they have had here you can see that that has changed over the past couple weeks they actually purchased more they increased their purchase of Treasuries and this right here marks a big change in between now and over the past few years as I have said in the introduction doesn't necessarily mean that we are now in QE for but if this trend continues this is something to pay close attention to sure there can be little variances here and there I wouldn't necessarily say anything until it's a trend so I'm gonna keep a very close eye on this and I will warn you of any major events within this article here there was this comment that I found very interesting the Fed has already announced that they will be reinvesting the principal repayments from their MBS holdings and Treasuries so this is a non event and not news to the market the Fed is swapping their holdings of GSE mortgage bonds for Treasuries which are more effective for conducting monetary policy operations that's what a lot of people would say this is what the news will say and of course there's more to it than that check this out since March 2019 when the Fed rolled out its plan the Fed has ended its Treasury run off sooner than they had communicated cut rates as they said they would not and is buying mid and long duration bonds while aggressively rolling off selling off notes and bills again opposite to what they previously communicated I think this is noteworthy mr.
Hamilton makes a very good point and that's why I wanted to bring it to you here is the information directly from the Federal Reserve's own website okay I want to show you the data as it comes from the horse's mouth because then you could see it for yourself as it all unfolds beginning in October of 2019 principal payments received from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities will be reinvested in Treasury securities subject to a maximum amount of twenty billion dollars per month any principal payments in excess of that maximum will continue to be reinvested in agency MBS there's more details in here but it looks like they are shifting more into the Treasuries getting out of the mortgage-backed securities but is this really what's gonna happen are they saying one thing and doing something on the opposite side I'm gonna give you those details in the coming weeks the coming months so stay tuned this interview with Alan Greenspan connects the second part of this video to the third part so I wanted to show you what he's talking about it will not be long before the spread of negative interest rates reaches the US according to former Fed chair Alan Greenspan you're seeing it pretty much throughout the world it's only a matter of time before it's more in the United States this is very important and you could see what central banks are doing they're all going in the same direction below is a list of recent emerging markets central bank monetary policy changes they're all cutting all of these central banks around the world are going into the next phase of quantitative easing they're either printing money or the reducing interest rates we are watching this happening after ten years of easy monetary policies the world has never seen a big bubble like we are encountering today this will go beyond anything the history books have we are going to start rewriting everything after this event unfolding there is no doubt about it take a look here you're seeing everything from Botswana Jamaica and Egypt and Indonesia and I can scroll and scroll and scroll and we'll see how many countries today are doing the same thing they are cutting rates and it doesn't matter where you look around the world it seems to be everywhere my goodness this is just going on and on and on now take a look at this you can see this interactive chart and it's the emerging market central bank cut rates by most in a decade looking at this line right here - 14 at the very bottom it just shows you a list of all the different countries that are involved here it's unbelievable to see all of these countries acting together it isn't the United States doing one thing and you're seeing the ECB doing another no they're all doing the same thing the unstoppable surge in negative yields reaches 17 trillion dollars just recently this wasn't even in the double digits and now suddenly it's already heading towards 20 trillion very rapidly the global stock of negative yielding debt is down the excess of 17 trillion dollars as rising market volatility lends extra force to this year's unprecedented bond rally 30% of all investment grade securities now bear Sub Zero yields meaning that investors who acquire the debt and hold it to maturity are guaranteed to make a loss it's unbelievable but that's the state we are in today this just shows you how fast this has come up in this period of time it has simply gone into astronomical territory it's going very high very fast and the world doesn't know how to handle it this is another interactive chart that you can simply put your mouse over get a breakdown looking at for example Asia seven point three trillion dollars this is all from Japan if you look at Europe we see the breakdown in France in Germany and so on just showing you all this ridiculous negative yielding debt and how that is all comprised take a look at how this really comes to be it's unbelievable at the bottom there it's just trying to give you an explanation of how to get a negative yields just imagine you have to put all of the risk out there all of your hard-earned dollars your savings and you get an negative return it's unbelievable but that's what we have it's really truly mind-boggling to see the results of lower negative rate environments look no further than eurozone and Japan they account for 87 percent as a negative rates worldwide Europe is essentially in recession with negative GDP in Italy and Germany and elsewhere its banking systems are a mess thanks to negative rates European banks are trading at the lowest levels in more than 30 years Japan not to be much better and then it breaks down the fact that if we see the exact same thing happening in the US UK Canada Australia New Zealand we are going to be in a world of hurt look at this right here Europe's bank stocks are the lowest levels in more than 30 years it never recovered from the financial crisis in fact it is much much worse many years of ultra low rates have weighed on Japanese bank shares look at when you see this in the news talking about Japan being this so-called model of success for low rates and for money printing just look at this chart and you tell me how that is the case it is a complete fraud and every time I see this comment which happens regularly it is truly an embarrassment for that person two more things I want to touch on very quickly New York Fed president John Williams says low inflation is the problem of this era this leads me to believe that we will see massive quantitative easing in the future there is going to be no other way around it imagine what they print the last time it's gonna be insane this time around and last but not least longest losing streak for global PMI can you believe this right now worse than 2008 worse than 2000 worse than all the events in between now and then this is a real indicator and you are seeing it happening right before your very eyes that's all for this video if you found that informative hit that thumbs up button remember you make a unicorn cry when you leave the video before you click one button if you want to learn how to make money how to build a business how to actually create passive income I made this course the Amazon GPS to tell you how to sell on Amazon the right way the proper way the way in which you work once and you make money for a long period of time minimum investment to get started the way I teach my course is free to actually get all the information that you need to download check it out the Amazon GPS comm if you want the financial education that was left out of the school system to keep you in the dark I broke it all down in these two books you can check that out at the link in the description if you want the audiobook that's available at the money GPS calm hold on hang on have you seen this video we are talking about an economic crisis that the world is simply unprepared for if you haven't watched it already click on it and I will see you there
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