저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 저금리 환경에서 글로벌 주식은 유리하지만 선별이 필요하고, 금은 안전자산으로 주목받는다. 글로벌 경기 및 주식: 저금리(국채 금리가 제로 근처)는 글로벌 둔화를 암시하며, 고배당주 다수는 배당 유지가 어려울 수 있다. 다만 경기 둔화 속에서도 수익을 내는 기업·국가가 있어 이들을 선별해야 한다고 봄. 배당은 3% 수준이면 합리적이라고 언급. 미·중 무역 갈등: 무역 긴장이 장기화될 것으로 보며 단기 합의는 어렵다고 판단. 홍콩 문제가 악화되면 미국이 홍콩 특별 무역·투자 혜택을 철회할 수 있고, 이는 큰 시장의 침체로 이어질 수 있다고 우려. 금과 채권: 금리 하락과 통화 공급 확대로 자금이 금으로 몰릴 것으로 전망. 예금 수익이 없으니 금을 안전자산으로 보고, 이후 배당 수익이 있는 주식으로 이동할 것으로 봄. 가상화폐·블록체인: 비트코인이 금으로 뒷받침되는 구조라면 가치가 있을 수 있으나, 블록체인 자체는 고위험으로 보며 신중해야 한다고 언급. 종목 추천이나 구체적 가격 목표는 없음.
다듬은 글
joining us now to talk the state of the global economy and emerging markets is Mark Mobius founding partner at Mobius Capital Partners in you've been on a couple of times mark recently on different shows at different places I've seen you but I'm harkening back to some comments I saw you make about just where global yields are and the global bond market is and you were making these comments at the same time that it was I guess we had just inverted and the recession talk was running fast and furious at that point and we were looking for you know looking into the abyss and and really looking to see what's going on that is causing so much angst and trepidation and you just were simply saying I think this the equity markets global you're gonna do well because interest rates are so low and it was like wow that almost seems too simple do you still feel that way yeah I still do I in fact I feel more strongly about it now because people are talking about Treasuries going to zero interest rates so I mean if that's the case where do you hide and what I think is that people are gonna start looking for yield the companies that have dividends that pay a yield that's one thing and the other thing they're gonna look for for safety given what's happening between the US and China they're gonna be looking for gold so I think those are the two places where you have to hide so to speak from the current situation okay let me just tell you what how I would worry about that the the zero interest rates are forecasting some type of global slowdown so all the big yield stocks their businesses are gonna go in the tank they're not going to be able to cover the dividend and whatever you made in yield you're gonna lose in principle when the stocks go down to recession lows so that that doesn't make sense why won't that happen no that's right I think most of the stocks will be in the scenario that you just described but there will be stocks that will continue to make money I'm not saying that growth is going to be huge but they'll continue to struggle along pay dividends there will be many but there will be these stocks that you gotta identify which is what we're doing now we're looking very closely at which companies can survive this kind of global slowdown and by the way I don't think it'll be universally global slowdown I think some companies will continue to do well and some countries will continue to do well and those are the ones you gotta identify that's why it's kind of a free-for-all now we're looking everywhere where we can find these kinds of companies it's not going to be easy we and this anything we're doing is in with the backdrop of the trade tensions with China and really around the other countries as well for the United States but you've done a lot of traveling to China a lot of business there do you the latest news today that the back to the negotiating table do you think that there is ground to be given on both sides of this will trying to give some ground well we give some ground when we come to something that's mutually beneficial at some point I don't think anything will happen anytime soon because you've got a number of factors at play here don't forget Hong Kong Hong Kong is very very important and you can see that some of the congressmen in Washington are really concerned about what's happening in Hong Kong if this gets worse and for some reason the Chinese move in Hong Kong then you could see the u.s.
breaking the tie with Hong Kong which sounds like enormous gamble but this could happen and that means that you have a one big market going into the doldrums so I think we have to watch that situation very carefully very complex but it's very very important to understand the strategic battle that's taking place between the US and China mark I'm sorry can you can you just go back and say that again you could see the u.s.
breaking ranks with Hong Kong meaning meaning what we would say never mind Hong Kong without it because we're more concerned about yeah I know because what happened you must remember that the US has an Act which gives Hong Kong certain trade and investment benefits if the US Congress decides and by the way that act is dependent upon Hong Kong being independent and not governed by China if that is broken then the Congress might pull back on that act which could be very very significant in terms of what happens to Hong Kong so the whole picture of china-us relations is tied up not only with trade not only with intellectual property property theft and all the rest of that but also with Hong Kong because Hong Kong is sort of the epitome of what the US wants China to be and if they move in another direction then a lot of congressmen in the US will be quite unhappy so we have to watch that very carefully mark why would the bond market and gold be positively correlated is it isn't it usually sort of the opposite it you know you're looking for inflation or I don't know I guess fiat currencies are somewhat questionable but that it's not implicit that you would think that zero interest rates would cause you to buy something with no yield well the situation now is that with the interest rates going down to close to zero or even - then where do you put your money particularly if you are very afraid of the economic political environment globally so you rush into gold okay the other factor of course is money supply what is the money supply globally who knows the pudding knows what it really is simply because you have the crypto currencies you have all these countries printing like crazy in order to bring those interest rates down so I believe a lot of people going to think hey wait a minute I'm not getting anything in the bank anyway so why don't I go into gold has a safe haven and then look for stocks that by paying some good yield or at least some reasonable yield yeah and I think that's the direction that we're heading Marc do you think that there are crypto currencies that have in here value like digital gold do you think Bitcoin for example has inherent value if there's a cryptocurrency that is really backed by gold and that is there is a meaningful agreement and some kind of modern thing of this connection then this could be your fight interesting that would be that would be you know that that's what you're telling me because there there are people that think that blockchain itself imbues the the asset with inherent value which is it which is that why they call it digital gold but I mean we seem to be okay with a lot of fiat currencies that aren't backed by gold you know I I don't know I guess it's the Full Faith and Credit of the government but nothing's backed by gold anymore except ETF so I don't know yeah I mean why why would that's right I mean it's some bad guy go why would you have any faith in any fiat currency then ya know the bottom line is that there's a whole generation of people who have faith in the internet they have faith in these crypto currencies that's all it takes the reason why people believe in the u.s.
dollar is because they have faith but with dollars in their hands they can buy something so there's agreed to which a crypto currency can enable you to buy something and you believe that to be the case then it's it's fine but I think people are gonna begin to realize that these are very very risky situations and by the way I believe blockchain is a very high risk situation you know a lot of people say Oh blockchain can't be broken into no it can be anything that's created by man can be broken into and it could create a big crisis so I think we have to be very careful in blockchain mark very quickly just you said look for stocks that you think have a reasonable dividend what's a reasonable dividend you got any of those names that you throw out well nowadays I would say you know if we can get to 3% yield that's great their number stocks and do better than that but that would be a reasonable yield to have thank you for your time it is great to see you you
Comments 0