저자: MichaelBurry · 외국인
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결론: 머스크의 트위터 인수는 테슬라 주가 방어를 위한 주의분산이며 트위터는 실패할 가능성이 크다는 주장. 테슬라 및 머스크의 사업 확장 비판: 과거 테슬라·스페이스X의 기술과 비전은 높이 평가하지만, 트위터 인수로 자원과 시간이 분산되고 있다고 봄. 트위터는 우주 진출과 달리 경쟁이 치열한 분야이며 틱톡·유튜브에 밀리는 시장이라 주장. 트위터 구독료($8/월) 비판: 경기침체와 금리 상승기에 사람들은 넷플릭스 등 필수적이지 않은 구독을 줄일 것이고, 광고 없는 트위터에 월 8달러를 낼 사용자는 많지 않을 것이라 봄. 메신저 앱으로 전환하거나 암호화폐 기능을 넣는 것도 현실성이 낮다고 평가. 광고 수익 및 산업 전망: 머스크가 정치에 공격적으로 개입하며 광고주 이탈이 예상되고, 소셜미디어 광고 수익은 감소 추세(스냅챗·페이스북 사례 언급). 트위터는 수익성이 없다고 봄. 인수 계약 배경: 머스크가 540억 달러에 인수한 것은 농담에서 시작됐으나 법적 구속력으로 인해 결국 인수해야 할 상황이라 해석하며, 은행들도 연루되어 손실 위험이 있다고 언급. 테슬라 주가 전망: 테슬라 주식이 고평가되어 있다고 보며, 경기침체와 금리 상승 시 고가 자동차 수요가 줄어 주가 하락 가능성을 제기. 트위터 이슈는 테슬라 하락을 가리는 주의분산이라고 주장. 제품 자체는 나쁘지 않으나 주가는 비싸다고 평가. 머스크 전망: 머스크 개인의 능력은 인정하나 이번 인수는 자만(hubris)으로 보며, 저커버그의 메타버스 투자보다도 수익성이 낮은 낭비라고 평가. 테슬라 팬덤 채널들이 트위터 옹호로 돌아선 것을 비판하며 시청자에게 주의를 당부.
다듬은 글
I know guys I'm trying to talk to him I just don't know what he's up to guys we're talking about Elon and the whole Twitter thing yeah I know well I got some other people coming in and we'll chat with them and thanks guys we'll get back to this so guys we got to talk about Elon I just think it's a huge problem and one thing that I really wanted to talk about this with you is to think about what Elon has been doing these days and think about your career and why you like or dislike Elon um now first uh for my you know myself the reason why I originally like Elon uh mostly because he started a great company Tesla and was very successful that I like his technology and his Visionary with SpaceX all of these things I think that's great and I'll leave it at that and and it's so strange that now he's just veering off into like buying another company diverting resources into something else and for me I don't see Twitter has been like the same as going to Mars I I just don't um one thing I I think is very very different uh with something like Twitter is that it's in a very competitive space you're also losing out to video essentially we're on YouTube you guys know that I I know that Tick Tock is doing really well is also and then something like a Twitter is this like a step backwards and so I feel like you're trying to push a technology that's frankly not as good as other things um if you want to make Twitter into like say a messaging app there are better messaging apps out there if you want to make Twitter into like a cryptocurrency thing I'm just like that's a completely rebuild uh plus we're an environment where crypto's not really very good right now or very hot we're in a downturn and um one things I I notice with all of these sort of Tesla pumper channels now they're trying to convince you that like Twitter's good and in my opinion the Tesla pumper channel is the reason why they're all focusing on Twitter is because they're trying to distract you of uh Tesla stock is going down essentially we're going into an environment in the future which is recessionary and like the question is in Rising interest rates in a recession do people want to buy expensive cars probably not that's my opinion but I've backed up by all kinds of data that I see with the car market and now Elon is trying to convince everyone and he's been all over Twitter about this like hey everyone you should buy Twitter for like eight bucks a month um you know some of these tweets he's saying you know you get what you pay for Twitter speaks to Inner masochist and all of us and then you tween out these pictures like you know that people want to pay eight bucks for coffee why not eight bucks for Twitter I mean the thing is this is very real um if if this existed before like for example let's say Facebook successfully convinced people to pay 10 bucks right um then yes I would say you know Twitter would be a possible um the thing is though like at this moment if you ask a regular person a recession what are you going to choose eight bucks for Twitter eight bucks for Netflix I'm thinking they're gonna choose Netflix or cancel both of them I just don't see a world where you're going to get enough people to be like you know what I want Netflix I want Twitter uh and I I you know want to support this sort of platform to where there's no advertising and Noah holds bar trolling all day every day I'm gonna pay for that don't know um I I personally can live without Twitter and um I just I really want to emphasize this it's sort of frustrating to me because I I see a very smart person yeah I think when Elon Musk is is you know I don't think he's crazy necessarily but I feel like this is more of a hubris thing um also too I feel like this is a bit of a martial word to say sort of Spin Zone and this is the spin in my opinion um he tweets out as a joke that he wants to buy Twitter for 5420 which isn't really a great price to buy it right generally speaking by Lewis how high right you want to get something out of value um and you know he files the paperwork and stuff like that and he's like oh crap I made a mistake I shouldn't make these kind of jokes and so then he gets his lawyers and his lawyers get together he's like you know what we can get out of this deal let's let's pretend that you know Twitter lied to you and betrayed you and stuff like that even though when you originally found the paperwork you said that you're gonna essentially forgo all due diligence and just buy it because you're rich and you can buy anything that you want right it was meant to be a joke and didn't break out of it essentially the the joke turned on him where he was essentially 4 course to buy because ultimately the courts are like going to make him buy this thing and his lawyer's like dude you better just buy it just pay up now and then the other thing that's going on as well is that all these banks are kind of because they have this long relationship with mux they don't want to lose that and they're kind of on the hook for this as well and essentially all these people are going to lose money and I just feel like every day now musk is basically begging people for money which is kind of weird um you know it is true when you're selling a car you're kind of begging people for money but I think the big difference is you know and it's not quite the same because as a as a business and I'm sharing with you guys you provide someone value and people are willing to pay for said value right so you you offer someone a good product which is Tesla and people are willing to pay for that I think the problem with Twitter is inherently it's just not going to be as good as says like a tick tock or YouTube um you know I myself prefer YouTube I'm on YouTube that's essentially what I watch I don't really mess with Twitter that much I don't really mess with Facebook I'm just keep me really because I literally I watch YouTube I watch it for either commercial stuff be it all kinds of TV shows or be it independent stuff like stuff that I do that's what I watch I stay away from Tick Tock because I think it's too young for me and frankly I think Tick Tock is dumb uh and so you know I think those are the leaders and then um when it comes to like you know messaging or crypto uh I I don't see people I don't I don't see a world where people want to pay for a messaging app uh most of the messaging apps out there are free um if you guys disagree with me if you think people want to pay permission I'm just saying for example say Twitter becomes a messaging app um and also too I I think we're in a world where crypto is cooling off because this has always been rumors oh yeah you know Dogecoin and crypto is that's where we're gonna go with this and I don't know I I just feel like we're witnessing a public meltdown and I just want you to understand that I feel like all these Twitter Pumpers now are essentially just following the Elon cold and it's um frankly unhealthy and a bit strange um in terms of like running a business one thing is that and I'm looking at right now with with Elon it just he's making lots of jokes about getting people to pay eight bucks for his platform and I get it right and it's kind of funny and you're used to this sort of salesman but I feel like it it cheapens Tesla and I I mean that sincerely where if if Tesla and SpaceX are the future and this is why we always admire him right run run with that just go with that and and sometimes like the pumper people out there are like oh no elon's so smart he can turn Twitter whatever he wants but just by definition like right now for example uh if if I'm running a Tesla company and I'm in the office at Tesla or I'm in the Tesla Factory I'm not at the Twitter office and in the reverse if I go to the Twitter office I move all my stuff in there I'm having meetings all day every day my mind's on Twitter I'm talking about Twitter I'm tweeting about Twitter by definition I'm not going to spend that much time or less time on Tesla or SpaceX which I think are which I think are great Endeavors to be honest um you know I I give Tesla the family with a hard time because I think Tesla's overvalued right I think the stock is too expensive but that doesn't necessarily mean like I think they're just awful awful products or anything like that I never say that just the stock and the product isn't necessarily the same thing I'm just calling out to where I feel like I just want you guys to be aware of this that all of these Tesla pumper channels are becoming like now Twitter Pumpers and it's a bit weird and I really do think it's because it's a distraction Twitter's a distraction of oh your Tesla Stock's going down and you're losing half your money maybe more and um you know just forget that I was pumping Tesla the whole time I think people I think that's sort of what those channels are are going for right now um and I just don't think Twitter is a winning proposition um if you guys disagree if you think going into recession that you're going to find enough people to pay eight dollars a month to use a platform where everyone controls each other other essentially be my guest I think when the advertisers start pulling out and the stuff that elon's doing right now is is really not Advertiser friendly at all he's aggressively getting into politics which is something usually CEOs really try to avoid yes CEOs can do politics like for example if a um you know just for example uh let's say the White House you know passes some sort of Bill that affects your business sure a CEO is going to come out and say hey you're like affecting my business let's work together to like change policy or or you know CEOs try to purposely try to affect policy but like you know what we're talking about here a social media platform does not really in its unprofitable and you're looking at an industry too that I I would argue is in a massive decline because ad revenue is going down you looked at what happened to Snapchat what happened to Facebook and I I just I just don't see it so I don't know I I'm I I feel sorry for the Fanboys and I just want to you know give you guys a touch of reality what's going on with the Elon thing and don't get caught up in Colts you know um if your money is is is you know you wanted to grow you want to grow in good companies et cetera that's great right invest in good companies and stuff but do acknowledge and recognize the reality when you're CEO of of your favorite company via Tesla is diverting his time his energy and his money to something else and it's not what you originally invested in the same way that people were disappointed with Mark Zuckerberg that they felt like Mark dude you're spending way too much money on this metaverse thing you're going a bit crazy crazy going off the rails and to be fair guys at least Mark Zuckerberg is aiming for a future that theoretically could be really profitable I'm saying theoretically I I I have my my skepticism of that but theoretically uh something like with Elon Musk and Twitter which is a complete Divergence right where Facebook's trying to essentially say hey the writing's on the wall social media is dying off we're transforming to something else let's take a direction company that way whereas elon's like basically abandoning his pet projects and spending time on this other thing that I think is just a waste of money um and I don't know it's it's really weird to to see this much Twitter stuff all day every day um it's really weird because every time I flip on the news it's like oh my God what does Elon doing he's firing more people he's pushing more stuff and again he wants eight bucks a month and I I think there's gonna be and the other thing too which which could be happening is um maybe he's prepping up to sell a bunch of Tesla stock and he's trying to like convince the Fanboys that it's a good thing that he's going to dump a bunch of shares on people or you know it's a good thing that he's spending time because he's doing you know social uh the social good by making Twitter a better place or whatever but I'm just not seeing it so that's my thoughts in this let me hear you guys thoughts about this whole uh Elon Musk Twitter thing but it just it seems really really ridiculous so anyway hope you guys are well I'd love to hear your thoughts thanks again
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