저자: ChrisNorlund · 외국인
요약 보기
워런 버핏 주주서한 핵심 철학을 소개하는 교육 영상으로, 특정 자산의 단기 가격 예측은 없다. 주요 논지: 버크셔는 기업(business)을 사며 장기 우량 기업과 유능한 경영진을 중시한다. 주식은 단기 매매 대상이 아니라 장기 실적 기대로 보유한다. 근거 사례: 코카콜라는 1994년 약 13억 달러에 매수해 배당금이 7,500만 달러에서 2022년 7억 400만 달러로 늘었고, 아메리칸익스프레스도 약 13억 달러 투자 후 배당이 4,100만 달러에서 3억 200만 달러로 증가했다고 소개한다. 창조적 파괴: 시장에서는 새 기업이 옛 기업을 대체하므로 실패 기업도 생기며, 버핏도 실패한 투자를 인정한다. 철도주처럼 한때 외면했다가 뒤늦게 인식한 사례도 언급한다. 투자 태도: 시장 버블과 유행(AI 등)을 쫓지 않고, 레버리지 위험을 경계하며, 감정 통제와 꾸준한 학습을 강조한다. 찰리 멍거 인용구와 벤저민 그레이엄의 '단기 투표기·장기 저울' 비유도 소개한다. 리스크: 기술주 투자에 버핏·멍거가 소극적이었다는 점, 유행 추종의 위험(승자 기업 선별 어려움)을 짚는다. 특정 종목·지수에 대한 방향성 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
So, Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway just released a letter to shareholders, essentially laying out their investment strategy and philosophy. And I want to discuss this with you because I think it's a great way to learn. So let's start right now. So, we have this letter. Let's take another look .
This is Warren Buffett. To Berkshire Hathaway shareholders : Charlie Munger, my longtime partner , and I have a job managing the savings of a large number of people. We are grateful for their unwavering trust, a relationship that often spans most of their adult lives. It is these dedicated contributors who first come to mind as I write this letter.
I'm not going to go through everything, just the most interesting points that I think are really important. He talks about how shareholders are investing in him, investing for a lifetime. They just let him manage their money forever. He also says that they sometimes buy a business in whole or in part, but do not necessarily have direct control over its management.
He emphasizes the importance of choosing companies that have good managers or CEOs . I want to read some specific language where he says: in our second category of ownership, we buy publicly traded stocks, through which we passively own parts of companies. We have no say in the management. So that's what I was telling you about.
Our goal in both forms of ownership is to make meaningful investments in businesses that have long-term favorable economic characteristics and reliable leaders. Please note that we own public stocks based on expectations about their long-term performance, not because we view them as instruments to buy and sell.
This moment is crucial. Charlie and I don't pick stocks. We choose business. That's why I talk a lot about business on this channel, because I believe it's extremely important to understand the basics of business. Even if you don't plan to get involved in stock picking, understanding how businesses work is important for your career, work, and, of course, investing.
And I always like how we say that we essentially choose business. Um, because one of the things that bothers me a little bit, and I'm sharing this with you, is that there are a lot of channels where they just look at charts all day long, and that's all they do. They don't really talk about news or business.
That's why I emphasize things like this on the channel, because I truly believe in it. As Buffett said, if you're going to do it right, you have to choose businesses, not just stocks, which I think is the right approach. Warren says here, and that's interesting too. I've made a lot of mistakes over the years, and that's what Buffett and many other people do—make mistakes.
This is reality and I'm just telling you guys, you'll see on YouTube that scammers pretend like they never make mistakes and that's always a red flag. People who say they don't make mistakes. I mean, even the best professionals in the business make mistakes. It's just part of the game. So, Buffett says we make mistakes.
As a result, our large collection of businesses now consists of several companies with truly extraordinary economic performance . Many of them have very good economic characteristics, and there is a large group that is marginal. Along the way, other businesses I invested in disappeared. Their products proved to be useless to the public.
Capitalism has two sides. The system creates an ever-growing pile of losers while simultaneously providing a flow of improved goods and services. Schumpeter called this phenomenon creative destruction. And if you don't know what creative destruction is, the gist is simple: let's take the example of a horse and a car, it's the simplest.
For a long time, the horse was the best means of transportation, and then the Model T came along and replaced it, and later, perhaps, flying cars will replace road cars, and so on. There is always something new that changes everything, and that, in essence, creates opportunities. So you have to be aware of that.
For example, if you have invested all your money in horses and are just burying your head in the sand, things will go badly for you, if you know what I mean . So there are always opportunities in the market in the context of creative destruction, when new businesses displace old ones. Um, and he even says, you know, um, they don't do everything right all the time.
Sometimes they buy companies whose products no one needs, and the business eventually fails. But I think the idea of understanding that this is an investment in a business is key. Um, in August of 1994, yes, 1994, Berkshire completed its seven-year process of buying the 400 million shares of Coca-Cola that we own now.
The total cost was 1.3 billion. It was a very significant amount, which remains important to this day. But, um, he then says, um, the cash dividends we received from KO in 1994 were 75 million. By 2022, dividends increased to 704 million. Um, growth happened every year, as inevitable as birthdays. Um, all Charlie and I had to do was cash the quarterly dividend checks from Coca-Cola.
We expect these payments to likely increase. And then he adds the same thing about American Express. With American Express, the story is the same . Berkshire's purchase of AXP shares was essentially completed in 1995 and, coincidentally, also cost $1.3 billion. The annual dividends received from this investment increased from 41 million to 302 million.
These payouts also appear to have a high probability of growth. And, um, this is something I mentioned to you guys last year, if you've been following the channel for a long time, that, um, we were talking about things like dividend stocks and so on. And you know, it's funny, because the last couple of years, during the " stimulus check market" and the " Kathy Wood ARK investment market" and all that , that's exactly what it looked like .
You know, being like Warren Buffett wasn't cool , right? Um, it's just, you know, things were going up a million percent a day, and you're like, why do I need Buffett and dividends? This is boring. You know, Coca-Cola is boring. This won't make me rich. Um, it depends on your philosophy, right? So, Buffett's philosophy is to buy great businesses, collect dividend checks, and be patient.
He has many other philosophical thoughts, which I think are also wonderful. But I just wanted to share something else with you . And, um, as he says here, um, lesson for investors: weeds lose their importance as flowers bloom over time. It only takes a few winners to work wonders. And yes, it helps to start early and live to be 90, doesn't it?
All these wise words will be wonderful to hear for you, and for me too. That's why I'm reading this with you. I want to share this. They go on and on about some particularly wise thoughts, all delivered in one sentence , and I find them all fantastic. I'm going to break them down with you. So , he's saying here that there's nothing better than a great partner.
Charlie and I think pretty much the same way. But what I need a whole page for, he sums up in one sentence. Moreover, his version is always more clearly argued, more skillfully and, I must add, more straightforwardly expressed. Here are some of his thoughts. These are the words of Charlie Munger from a very recent podcast.
So let's read some of them . They are really funny. These are all Charlie Munger quotes. OK. The world is full of foolish players, and they will not achieve the same success as a patient investor . Isn't that right? So, as you can see, they're all about the long term, about the quieter you drive, the further you'll go .
Munger also says here: if you don't see the world as it is , it's like evaluating something through a distorted lens. And it's fascinating, as I was reading this, I thought about the fact that this is exactly what I keep preaching on this channel—I live in the real world. I live in reality. And that's why I always focus on the facts.
And as Buffett says: “Yes, Munger says it very aptly. " If you don't see the world as it is , it's like evaluating something through a distorted lens." God, this is very apt for me because it's one of my life philosophies. Let's see what else we have. I mean, it's just fantastic. All I want to know is where I'm going to die so I never have to go there.
And a similar thought from the past: write your desired obituary, and then act accordingly. What great advice: write your desired obituary and then act accordingly. And that reminds me. It's funny, we just made a video, or we...I always say "we" because I'm doing it with you, —surround yourself with friends who aspire to do the same things you do and who make you a better person.
And even that is like writing your own obituary. What person would you be most proud of at 90, considering all the things you wanted to do and achieve? One of the things I've learned in life is that you shouldn't regret anything. If you want something, if something is nagging at you, whether it's a desire to get a certain job, learn something new, or move to another city—just do it.
You only have one life. I'm also inspired by reading things like this. So, let's continue, let's see what else Munger has to say. It's really inspiring when you read something like this. Here he writes: "If you don't care if you're rational, you won't work on it. Then you'll stay irrational and get terrible results.
If you don't care if you're rational, you won't work on it, you'll stay irrational and get terrible results. And I think it's important to learn from your mistakes in investing or trading. Try to notice where your emotions got the better of you. You've made bad decisions, and that goes for relationships and love too, because you know what I'm talking about, right?
Love and war—it's all like war, isn't it? It's all irrational. So I think what he's saying is, you have to care about it. If you care about it, you can change it. If you don't care, you'll never change. Patience can be developed. The ability to stay focused and focused on one thing for a long time is a huge advantage.
Yes, that's right. Yeah. And it's funny, because Munger, he's basically twice my age. But I feel like we're from the same generation, and that's a real problem on YouTube. Especially with the new TikTok generation. Honestly, we have a generation of kids and adults who can't sit still and focus, and as a YouTube creator, it's sad to share that with you.
The most annoying thing is, you know, sometimes I just want to sit down and talk to you. I do n't want to, you know, edit a million things and do a bunch of text and graphics and do something like a music video when that kind of thing should be slow and thoughtful and methodical. So yeah, being able to just sit down and have a conversation is a key factor in not having to look at your phone all the time .
So, I totally support Munger. Yeah, I know I'm praising Munger, but man, that's just fantastic advice. Um, okay. You can learn a lot from the dead. Read about the people you respect, and those you hate. Yes, 100%. And that's exactly what we're doing now. Although, yes, Munger and Buffett are not dead yet.
But sometimes people ask, "Hey, Chris, how do you get better at these things?" First, I'm trying to pass on to you what I've learned. And second, I've said many times on this channel : you don't have to make mistakes all the time to become better. You can learn from other people's mistakes. You can also learn from other people's triumphs, in general, you can learn in many ways, but the main thing is to always, always, always learn.
And yes, you can learn from the deceased. It was a shame , because last year or the year before, some YouTubers (I won't name names) were saying that Warren Buffett and Bill Gates are stupid, and that everyone should buy a Shiba Inu, and I thought: "Oh my God." And I made funny videos about it. You can find them.
This is the video "Big Money Chris". I used to joke, but there are young people who consider this thinking outdated. I strongly disagree with this . I think all this advice can be useful forever. Let 's see what else we have There is. Warren and I don't pay attention to market bubbles. We look for good long-term investments and we hold them for a long time.
And that was actually a very important point. I heard that from Buffett and Munger all the time. And they don't chase the latest trends or fads. So, you know, right now, for example, artificial intelligence is all the rage. Um, that's not really Buffett's style of investing. He wouldn't say, "Oh my God, I should put everything into AI." That doesn't mean it's necessarily right or wrong.
That's his style, because my personal opinion, for example, on AI: if you're in the right company, like Microsoft, which is ahead of Google, for example, or Buffett and Munger weren't big fans of Google search; historically they haven't been very interested in investing in technology. So that's kind of their disadvantage.
But to be fair, their strategy is time-tested. Let's say in In the 90s, they chose Coca-Cola and American Express, and, you know, they didn't chase the latest trends. Because the thing about the latest trends is, even though they mentioned earlier about "creative destruction"—that there's always fluidity in markets and businesses displace old ones— not every business is guaranteed to succeed.
So that's a downside when you chase trends. Let's say AI is the future, but it might not be Chat GPT, and it might not even be Google. It might be some company you've never heard of. There might be thirty or forty companies that fail and only one or two that survive. So I think that's why I try to follow that philosophy.
It's good to hear different perspectives on these things, especially from people who really know what they're talking about. Let's see what we have here. Ben Graham—it's a very famous quote, I use it all the time : "In In the short term, the stock market is a voting machine. In the long term, it's a scale ." If you keep making something more valuable, someone smart is going to notice and start buying.
You know, in the short term, stocks can behave very strangely day in and day out. It just depends on what's popular that day. But over time, stocks and businesses that we're talking about tend to trade at their true value. And if you have a good business, as they say, right? Keep making something more valuable, and someone smart is going to figure out that your company is making money.
And that's a good investment. So that's good. There's no such thing as 100 percent certainty in investing. So leverage is dangerous, and any sequence of great numbers multiplied by zero is always zero. Don't expect to get rich twice. Sequence of numbers. Well, if something is inherently bad, it doesn't matter how you look at it.
You decorate it, it's still going to be bad. And don't expect to get rich twice. I think that's also sound advice. All of that advice is great. You have to keep learning if you want to be a great investor. When the world changes, you have to change too. I think that's very apt. And it's interesting because they...
But I wanted to say that they stay true to themselves and invest in the same things . But at the same time, they don't bury their heads in the sand. Earlier in the letter, which you can find and read in full, they mentioned a couple of businesses that completely failed , they failed, but they got out of them as quickly as they could.
So, yes, they have a philosophy, but they don't bury their heads in the sand. That's how I understand it. What else do we have here? Warren hated railroad stocks for decades, but the world changed, and eventually this country had four huge railroad companies that were vital to the American economy. We were late in recognizing these change.
But better late than never. Yeah. And just join in . I get that. And finally, I'll add two quick sentences. Charlie... from Charlie, which has been his deciding argument for decades. Warren, think about it some more. You're smart, and I'm right . It's just fantastic. So I hope this philosophy is useful to you.
I like sharing it with you, and it's a pleasure for me personally, President Frank. You know, when you first hear about these things, it kind of sinks in, it's like a kind of meditation - thinking about how you can change your perspective, whether it's about life in general, about work, about investing, about money, and things like that.
And that's how you get better: you take new philosophies, new ideas, and you implement them into your life where they're appropriate. And also try to surround yourself with people who also want to discuss these topics. So, actually, that's why we do this. I like it. to talk to you about these things. So, thanks again everyone for watching.
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