저자: ChrisNorlund · 외국인
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미국 증시 변동성 확대 속 워런 버핏의 현금·단기국채 비중 확대, 일본 중앙은행 금리인상과 엔캐리 트레이드 청산 우려를 설명. 미국 소비 둔화(Airbnb, Disney, Zillow 등) 신호와 영국 폭동 등 거시 리스크를 언급하며 리스크 관리와 분산투자를 강조. 구체적 가격 방향 예측은 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
hi friends this is Chris welcome back to the channel so want to give you an update on the stock market today what's going on around the world I'll share my thoughts and gears as well so this is a headline here uh US stocks and lower as Dow log's worst 5-day start to a month since 2018 and if you fall on the market this week it has just been really really volatile U Monday we had crazy moves to the downside it looked really really scary we're comparing it to 1987 um and then uh on Tuesday we had crazy moves to the upside but not quite uh recovering all of the losses then now here we are on Wednesday and um we're still down to the downside um if we're looking at uh going in tomorrow Thursday and talking about the US markets here um it's going to have a lot of volatility so uh 1.2% up or 1.2% down that's according to the offage markets we're getting some jobs data tomorrow and moreover you know sort of what everyone's doing is rebalancing trying to F okay uh do I want to do risk on or risk off Warren Buffett appears to be taking uh risk off um there's a headline here that really caught my attention I'll read it for you guys Warren Buffett's birkshire haway holds more us treasury bills than the Federal Reserve what and U he's got uh 234 billion of this stuff um collecting that probably four and 5% plus he's sitting on a whole bunch of cash um that's what he's up to and again it's just about managing risk remember he sold off half his apple and also he's probably watching Japan like a lot of us this is the headlines from Japan says here stock stock market investors breathe sigh of relief after Bank of Japan blinks they shouldn't get too comfortable blinks huh and uh that's that's uh kind of what we're we're talking about here basically um Japan was like yo we're going to raise rates okay that that that's our plan uh the markets then freak out because then we get weak uh data jobs data from the USA and and you know the US is like you know we're going to cut rates and then suddenly if you're in that carry trade I'm sure you guys heard a lot about that you're basically using chapen to go into other assets that have higher yields um suddenly you know the math doesn't work out anymore and a lot of people were trying to get out of said trade um we actually don't know how big that is uh I've been reading different things around the market and they keep saying the same thing we don't know we just know it's really really big um because you know the way these things work is like you would have to uh get data from every single hedge fund out there every single retail you know investor out there and and figure out where the money is going is it going to the peso is it going to US tech stocks Etc um but we do know it's it's large and also too uh in Japan and I told you guys before on the channel uh the Japanese actually tend not to trust their markets um they got burned badly in the 90s they've had like this flat period for a long time and they're like hey I mean everyone's buying in Nvidia Bitcoins Etc let's go ah and do that and it's actually been um really interesting to to watch all of this stuff go nuts guys I live here in Korea and we get different news than than you get uh so like for example in Japan so since the currency has been really really low over there there um it's been really really cheap for people from Korea to go visit Japan it's it's been over our news like hey you want a cheap vacation go to Japan it's like guys you probably don't get these kind of news and and I mentioned that to you you know but it's harder for you guys to you know go over the um the pond to Japan than than for us but um it's been just a really interesting and then um in Japan because all these like you know foreign tourist are coming in and you yes it gives them business but it kind of makes them feel weird because you know their currency's like really been devalued or you could say just the the the the what call it the the gap between um you know foreign currencies and their currencies has been really really sharp um is that like people come and they're like talking about how cheap everything is like how great it is it's so cheap and it's like you know for Japan it's it's generally not a cheap country to go visit right and so psychologically that's been kind of kind of strange and um it's actually really interesting to sort of watch this whole thing unfold um you would think it would be you know good for John hey's those tourism dos but then from the Japanese perspective if you're a local person you're like well this is not fun uh I can't go anywhere right and all these foreign tourists are coming here because remember their their currency is weak so it's expensive for them to say travel to the USA for example and um it's interesting because um this re actually relates to what's happening in USA uh we had some consumer stuff um uh earnings I think it was Airbnb uh Disney um I think it was like Marriott um multiple consumer Brands like Coca-Cola McDonald's these kind of things things um and they're all reporting a weaker consumer um let me read the headline of that one I I'll just show you what the article was it's right here it's a cons us consumer spending slow down ways on travel and Leisure groups and um they they were talking to uh Disney and Disney was saying hey our margin might be hurt we have higher labor costs um and higher food costs right so that hurts your margins and um it was just recently we were talking about this where uh the the Disney workers were basically threatening to strike uh I don't know if that's been resolved yet I know that they're not going to strike but I don't know if the exact terms of the deal if they're you know Union heads I've figured out something but essentially Disney's got to got to pay people more right so you got shrinking margin there and then you got less customers coming in because everything's too expensive moreover right the US consumer is running out of um savings uh the thing is is like when you talk about consumers and and I mentioned Japan kind of sentiment with consumers over there but when you talk about say consumers in USA it's like two-thirds of of the economy so if people aren't buying stuff or if they're not going doing Airbnb so I think Airbnb stock was down like 15% or something like that like it it weighs down everything right to keep the to keep this whole thing going uh to keep the musical chairs going essentially you got to keep people playing um and if people don't have money to play right you as consumer then everything slows down and then also to you have the slow downs in China um the uh the hotels they were saying um you know people are traveling but the I think I mentioned ition C remember but the Americans aren't traveling um internally the Richer ones that is because dollars so strong just go abroad and it's been kind of the same thing here in Korea um we went on vacation recently to uh Vietnam and like yes we totally could go on vacation uh in Korea and we did we did a vacation in Korea earlier this year to to Young you can find my videos on the Vlog on that um but like in comparison it's it's cheaper and for us just to go abroad to another country than it is to stay locally so that's the same thing for us as well it just depends what you know what the currency exchanges are and again like I said when you when you guys like leave the country you you'll see the movements of of the dollar and stuff like that and movements to foreign currencies matter a lot to decisions um one of the things that that because we're talking about currency changes here I think there was someone in the comments that was saying like hey I'm from Portugal we we don't you know do anything with USA or anything like that um here's a thing that that you may not realize so often uh food uh oil enery uh is traded in dollars right and so if you're in a currency that that's not dollar and so like say Emerging Market um that kind of stuff gets really expensive for you uh moreover you know you may not know that say let's say for example you don't think you're buying anything from the USA like oh I don't I don't buy any TVs or cars from USA or whatever um but your country may be getting food or energy from the USA so that's something and I I can't speak to Portugal so I don't know exactly your situation but I'll just say a lot of countries do get food from the USA uh some to to some shagrin I've talked about that before in the channel where you may or may not know this but um uh you you'll find in countries I think it was UK and I can't remember if other countries I don't which ones we talk about foreign Channel but um will actually protest if their government takes too much us meat because this frankly the the US meat quality is not that good and I know it's kind of a shock to to hear but um and please people from the UK chime in or other countries that that you've had protest in yours we've had it here in Korea where we're like quit sending us us meet it's no good stop doing it um and actually here we we have a choice we can take the local Korean like we go to the grocery store and it's like there's like different sections you have the local Korean meat and then you have the um uh Australia meat and then you have the US meat someone was saying uh in the channel though in the community was saying that the New Zealand meat's not bad so um I have no comment I don't know if we get meat from New Zealand I'm just not sure we probably do I just not sure and then um and then actually actually it's funny now we're on this topic um when you go to restaurants here in in Korea uh they will say you know our vegetables vegetables now our vegetables are from Korea sometimes though the vegetables are from China and they don't say anything and like consumers here are like really concerned about that they'd rather have local vegetable opposed to uh vegetables from China just people trust the local food more than than um stuff that's imported from other countries it it depends on the country of course and um we get stuff from Vietnam also um I like kind ofing more tropical fruit kind of stuff anyway that's kind of a Sidetrack on meat but um I guess the point I'm trying to saying is like the the the the the goods that move around the world and the currenc move around the world um affects us all in different ways and and it depends you know where you are in your neck of the woods um these are some other things that there some of the the weakening consumer or or weakening economy in USA um Zillow uh their CEO steep down here's the headline uh Rich Barton departs a Zillow CEO cing Reigns to top Deputy um Zillow open door I think there's another one a lot of those real estate companies they basically bought at the top and uh we're pretty much underwater that their stocks tanked and um the business just wasn't as rosy as they thought they were they were going to be um I remember I think I can't I think it was Zillow um it was like the earnings call was like two years ago and it just didn't sound like they knew what the heck they were doing if you guys heard that earnings call I I remember I want to say it was two years ago and it didn't inspire a lot of confidence in the base of that the stock tanked after that so it's interesting that they're changing CEOs now U moreover you have Airbnb I mentioned that before here's the headline Airbnb shares fall 14% as travel industry grapples with grim forecast um and I mentioned the hotels saying they were saying you know people are traveling um but they're not necessarily like going like Fallout luxury and getting the big packages or or doing all the crazy activities it's kind of like uh if you go to Disney you're going to go to Disney this year still the parks but maybe you're not going to buy all the toys for the kids right you get there and you're like okay kids just be happy with the rides don't ask for toys it's too much uh moreover we have this one this is actually really interesting um Facebook or meta I should say I'll read that one here Facebook parent meta raises 10.5 billion in bond deal as Bor tell the return to the market so corporate bonds may it being a thing um there they're actually offering more than the treasury right now so I'm looking at this chart here I'll pull it up I think it's 4.64 and um they're often like really crazy ones uh it was like 30 and 40e ones were the longest duration ones so we'll see how many people are going to get into those things um and then you can see the other ones here you got Google's doing it Amazon Microsoft and Nvidia um and then also too guys I I want to mention um because yes we look we talk about our financial markets right we talk about those things but I don't want to ever ignore other news around the world or what's going on in politics and right now unfortunately um we have a lot of bad situation in the UK and I know we have a lot of viewers in the UK and and I'm I'm I just say this I hope you're safe um I saw this headline today it says Banks send UK staff home early on worries of new farri right riots and you also have this UK shops uh shut over fears more violence as ryer jailed for 3 years um it is is not just one city it's like several cities and I I guess there was some guy who uh punched a police officer um and then ended up with with three years and I I think I I I I think there's a lot of I was going to say um misinformation and disinformation happening right and it's um you also have this this other one this is I'll read the headline here Elon Musk accountable to No One UK Tech Minister ammed says amid uh disinformation during riots I was going to say then you have like this uh I don't know what I call lunatic or crazy person Elon Musk this tweeting all sorts of stuff not helping the situation in the UK um and I I I I know that people in community have mentioned as well where they're just like dude shut up um talking about El musk and uh here's the thing like so whenever I talk about some like in UK um I have not been UK so you know I don't know but you know I do read the news and I do have friends from from there and um you know I I don't pretend to know everything that's happening I just I'm just saying um I don't I don't like seeing the violence and i' I've seen footage it it just looks it just looks really bad and and I hope you guys are all okay and you know you put that together with say for example I don't talk about it every day but I'm well aware of what's happening in Gaza um trust me guys I'm really well aware of it and um it's something that we don't talk about enough say in the US news of just what's happening in other countries care about care about your fellow human being right um and and I hope that tension will cool everywhere um I I'm also practical I I I know that you know um that it's that it's not good and I I've mentioned this before on the channel this mentioned again and so you know for me personally as my wife and I we talk about every day is you know this is why you save and invest and and put you uh and your family in in a situation that's safe right and you can Define that however you like um you know for me it's just move to a place that that's safe where you don't have to worry about that kind of stuff and I know it's it's very very stressful if you're in UK where like it feels like there's nowhere to go right they're saying like the closing Banks early and things um so yeah I I'm I'm really already to hear about what's going on over there guys and and I hope things calm down soon um I am also a big believer in the police and Law and Order those kind of things so for me you know people who are like punching and attacking police officers I I have no no sympathy for for those kind of people so um yeah it's just a it's a bad situation what for what I've seen it's just um it's just Riot I don't know else to say uh and I know Elon Musk is like I don't know like how much misinformation disinformation he's spreading out on this platform but um I I don't think he's helping the situation in my opinion so we'll make some more videos about that but um so that's that's what's going on in the markets guys um you know what's going to happen in the future from here you know my my point of being these things sometimes people ask about this stuff is is just just manage your risk you know um if if if cuz someone asked you know like how much percentage you put in spective assets these kind of things and to say like if if if you're worried all the time that all your money is going to go to zero Etc you probably have too much money in speculative assets um You probably have too much money in the market right you just got to figure out like okay what am I comfortable with right is my money and things that aren't going to go zero so you know if your money is an index funds it's not going to go to zero you're going to be fine you're going to you're going to live through the volatility you'll be okay um but if you need that money today today right then you're it's a different situation you probably got too much too much in there right you want to balance this the stuff out and what happens to a lot of people we talk about four is like when things are going up and everything's making money money on nvidias and whatever cryptos Etc people are then start borrowing a ton of money to throw in the market and so like you're way some people are way over leverage and and then you get these crazy moves um my my understanding of the the carry trade thing I I think the that first big moves were a lot of hedge funds and like sort of big money was was doing stuff and then um retail money I guess this is in Japan have yet to um get out of said trades uh if markets continue to be volatile and you get a lot of for sale and that kind of stuff you may see you know more volatility these kind of things and it's it's interesting I think was it the super micro computer one is is that the smco one I saw headline I think that one dropped 20% today or something like that um those kind of Trades and you know or the crypto stuff for me I I just I don't trust that stuff and I understand there's kids out there and this's the thing when you read comments on social media you don't know if those kids are are really true believers and those you know risky spective things or they're just trying to get you to join the Ponzi so they can so they can dump their their stuff on you but that's sort of like you know when we talk about this stuff every day uh it's good to have a community that can talk about these things realistically and honestly about this stuff so do be careful out there um I always appreciate one uh spending time every day and uh I'll catch you on the next video
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