저자: ChrisNorlund · 외국인
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스페이스X IPO 직후 시세가 시초 174에서 160대로 밀린 점을 들어 과열·도박성 투자라고 주장. 매출 대비 밸류에이션이 과도하며 AI 데이터센터 전환과 Starlink 외 사업의 가치에 의문을 제기. 모닝스타 적정가 63달러 언급. 칸로스 등은 회계상 CapEx 붐이 이익을 부풀린다며 닷컴버블보다 더 큰 버블 가능성을 경고. 이번 영상은 스페이스X 자체를 부정적으로 평가하는 내용이며 국내 대상 자산 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
All right, so SpaceX IPO is now live and Elon Musk is officially on paper the world's first trillionaire. And I want to show you guys what's going on what people are saying. So that's Fox News one trillion net worth. They're celebrating now trillionaires billionaire to trillionaire. And uh this is CNBC.
Have a look at it what they're saying. Space uh people who want to buy more who got in uh are going to have a very good average. It's It's really just very well done. You know what I was struck by Jim and CNBC again I feel like I'm giving out too many shout-outs today but they have this great piece talking to a lot of retail investors in the IPO and the hilarious part of it was almost all of the retail investors acknowledge yeah it's probably overvalued in the short run.
Yeah the valuation is high but they all have the sense of kind of wanting a piece of this for the long run. Um you know I know there's also a lot of people who just wanted to be in for the first day IPO pop so we'll see whether they can kind of hang on for the longer term because can you imagine what this company's quarterly results are going to be like?
so basically I think everyone knows it's overvalued but it's like buying Dogecoin at this point in crypto. And it's funny when they were showing it. So right now and uh ticker it's 172. It was actually at 174. You You guys watched it live. And then at the end of trading I think we're in the 160s. So if you bought at 174 uh you've already lost.
And all the stories today are going to be like oh my god look at all these new winners. Look at all these wealth generation but people have already lost. And the ones who made money would be say hey I got in early at 135 or I got way early I'm an employee or whatever right and they gave me my shares.
Uh then I was able to sell today to some at 174. And so whenever you talk about this stuff and say wealth was created it's basically one person bought the overvalued stock from someone else. I always think about this that there are there are always problems on Earth. There are always problems on Earth.
There're always things that we we wish to be better that we want to solve here on Earth and we we should solve them. But there also have to be things that get you excited about the future. That make you glad to wake up in the morning. Because you can't wait what happens next. And that's the future that SpaceX wants to bring to you.
And sure, I agree, right? I'd like to have things to look forward to in the future. Completely agree, right? So I don't disagree with that particular sentiment. But as Elon Musk is saying that, what is the future that he's pushing? Going to Mars. Which isn't necessarily a a great future. And if you if you want to go to Mars, buy your ticket, get on your spacesuit, go there right now and go have fun with radiation and otherwise, right?
And the other thing that's kind of crazy is like what else is the future that they're proposing? AI girlfriends, data centers in space, right? Colliding satellites, whatever. Um but again, I think a lot of people know this stuff already. They're just buying into the hype and it's it's basically gambling at this point.
Uh this is actually where it sits at the moment. Uh SpaceX, what are we? 2.21 trillion. Now that's just how much it it's supposedly quote worth at the moment where the stocks are really volatile. And uh you know, they're already in the top 10 companies. You're passing Tesla and then now the discussion all day has been like, okay, when's SpaceX going to buy Tesla, right?
It's it's just a hype machine. It's it's basically like crypto. I sold half of my allocated shares at 161, okay? And I'm now in the penalty box at Fidelity for flipping. Oh well. Uh basically what it was is if you sold early as a retail investor, they'll say you can't access uh IPOs next for the next I don't know, 90 days or something of that nature.
But this person's like, you know what? I'm just going to take my profits and run. No problem. Um here's the thing. This is Morningstar. They put out a really interesting chart on why they think SpaceX is overvalued. Um they're going with $63 a share something of that nature. And again, it's at 161 at the moment.
So, um the idea is that if you believe in the current, which is the 160-ish, right, where it is right now, um that that you think AI is like awesome and it's going to be a big part of, you know, their story going forward. Uh if the AI thing doesn't pan out, right, then you're stuck with just Starlink, basically.
Cuz Starlink does make money. That's actually their profitable part. If Starlink separated from uh SpaceX and just did its own thing, it actually wouldn't be necessarily a terrible investment, depending on when you bought it, right? But when you're piling in all this other junk, uh and then if you say absorb Tesla, it becomes a really, really bad proposition, right?
And so that's what you're buying it for now is the, you know, Elon's name, hype, and uh what you think about AI. Now, let me give you a a pooper's point of view. So, this would be uh King Fluffer Farzod. He says, "If you're angry at that Elon Musk is now a trillionaire, you have the wrong mindset." According to Farzod, uh Elon has becoming a trillionaire literally has nothing to do with you.
The global economy is worth 100 trillion per year. That's roughly 1 quadrillion global assets. That's 1,000 trillion. Elon's net worth is equivalent to 0.1% of the world's uh total asset base and blah blah. He goes through. From Psychot says, "SpaceX just did the biggest IPO in history while having negative revenue.
Uh they literally have no PE ratio. It's based entirely on future hype. And that future hype pans out only if Elon succeeds in buying our government to ensure SpaceX gets all the contracts." So, just think about that when people like Farzod say, "Wow, he's developing wealth out of thin air." Well, what about tax dollars?
Where Where does that come from? That comes from all of us, right? So, I thought this was a really good response to someone like a Farzad. Jim Chanos, honored to have you here. Let me just cut to the chase. What is a distinctive feature that makes SpaceX remind you of Enron? Well, I don't know that it reminds me of Enron, Tom, but it reminds me of the Enron time frame.
How's that? In that I've always said that Wall Street has a printing press, too, just like the Fed. It just takes a while to get going. And one of the things that I think SpaceX is ushering in in 2026 is massive equity issuance. And And historically without a doubt in the 20th and 21st century, anytime you have seen massive IPOs and secondaries relative to the size of the market or the economy, investors generally had been advised to to be a little more cautious or or reduce their risk.
So, I'm the 1999-2000 um the 2000s and 2021 for the first half of that year uh during the meme stock and SPAC craze. We are now going to break records in 2026 for IPOs and secondaries. Um and and SpaceX, of course, is the granddaddy kicking it all off in a big way, but we're going to see OpenAI and Anthropic and probably some others.
So, basically what he's saying then when you ever see these big IPOs, that's why I've been telling you guys this is peak bubble week. It does not bode well for the markets, right? Today is just a early milestone. It's the beginning of the first It's the end of the first chapter, and you know, next phase is we get to use Starship to try to build infrastructure all around lower Earth orbit, explore the stars.
Hopefully, you know, your grandchildren, my grandchildren get to do science field trips on the moon someday. Um and so, in terms of the share price today, look, it's early trading. I don't know where things will end up, but it's really just a big I view this as a very early intermediate milestone for the company.
The bulls, the pump pumpers, you're betting on whether or not our grandkids are going to have classrooms on the moon. But don't worry about share price, right? Let's just think about the moon. Okay. Let's not go all the way out to 2040. I think it's 160 billion, which is a little more pedestrian in 2028.
And remember, something extraordinary happened the last time I was on the show just a couple weeks ago. I said everything about the IPO changed. Why? Because they had moved into the category of being an AI hyperscaler. In literally 6 weeks, they went from not in the game to 27 billion dollars of AI hyperscaler revenue with big deals with big deals from Anthropic and Google.
What is the one thing we can all underwrite? I think we can all agree Elon Musk and the team at SpaceX are as capable as anybody on the planet. Jensen has said they're number one at standing up terrestrial data centers, at standing up AI data centers. On my part, Right, so suddenly we're a data center business and this guy's going on like, "Man, that data center business is so awesome.
Oh, we're all going to make money hyperscale blah blah blah, right?" And actually now we see the share price at 158. You remember the day started at what was it? 174 with Cramer. Do you guys remember this? At about a a week 10 days ago, um the vast driver for the SpaceX TAM in their perspective was the enterprise solution for xAI, basically Grok.
What what what the models produce, right? The software. And instead, they basically did a 180 pivot and said we are going to lease out our capacity to Anthropic and Google. And that's the neo cloud model, right? That's your an equipment lessor. And that is a much lower valued business in the marketplace than being a model company or a hyper scalar.
And we've been following data centers for a long, long time. And basically, you're it's a finance business, right? You're you're you're buying the chips from Nvidia or somebody else, and then you're leasing them out to Anthropic or what It's a rate of return business. It's not a super high-tech business.
Yet, 22 plus trillion of the 29 and a half trillion of of SpaceX's TAM in their prospectus is based on that business. Right. And so, what he's talking about is total addressable market and kind of the argument that you'd make for buying said thing. Before it'd be software-based grok, and now it's like buy chips from Nvidia, and you can buy that by uh debt or whatever, and then then the bet would be I can rent it out to someone else.
That's basically what ends up being. financial advisory firm, would you be advising institutional investors, retail investors to own this one? Well, what we do is we try to give people a framing to understand their decision. Uh and by that count, the simple math obviously doesn't add up. This is a very expensive stock relative to any rational measure of value.
But, we're talking about Elon Musk, who has a tremendous track record of not just success, but convincing people that success is durable. So, it's not a calculus based on valuation, it's a calculus based on faith. All right. So, if you want to make money decisions based on faith, have at it. Good luck.
But again, you're already down if you bought it at the top. So, like anyone that's owning SpaceX, you're you're buying it for the Musk factor. And maybe that bet against Tesla and Musk going back a decade ago, that was I mean, that was proven historically wrong. Mhm. So, you're buying it for Musk, and and I actually hear fanboys say this.
They say, "Oh, Chris, you're so dumb. Look at Tesla stock. Tesla stock is awesome." And and that's the argument that they make. So, basically, they'll they don't address any of these things about that SpaceX is overvalued. They just say, "Well, look how awesome Tesla is." And And I And I And I And I say, "Fine, look at Tesla.
They're already failing. They're getting out of the car business, going into the human robot business." And Elon Musk is turning his a focus away from Tesla, going into SpaceX. Historically, returns have been awful at those valuations. You mentioned earlier the dot-com bubble. Are we doing dot-com bubble 2.0 right now?
Oh, this is much bigger. The AI The AI build-out relative to the TMT build-out of '99, 2000 is multiples, even as a percent of the economy, GDP. An An An important thing to point out is that when you get these CapEx booms in technology, they're tremendously accretive to earnings. And there's a simple accounting reason why.
That is when when Tom buys chips for his data center from Nvidia, Nvidia recognizes that as revenue and profit. Mhm. Tom capitalizes those expenses and writes them off over 5 to 10 years. And so, you have a mismatch where the same dollar in a CapEx boom is recognized as profits by one entity and deferred by the
Right. the same people expending the dollar. [clears throat] And that happened in '90 '98, '99, 2000. From the middle of '98, S&P operating earnings rose 30% to the middle of 2000, over the 2 years. From the middle of 2000 to the middle of 2001, when order books got pulled, S&P earnings dropped 40%.
Was that too much accounting for a Friday? I think so. Chanos I'll leave it at I'll I'll stop, I think. Now, what's funny there is the Bloomberg guy, because Chanos is actually illustrating the key point here, why numbers and how numbers get pumped up. And the Bloomberg guy is trying to, you know, basically blow that off.
If you understand that the essential accounting {slash} math of this one, uh Nvidia, right, can sell chips to with this an of of Elon Musk. And then suddenly it looks like, "Oh my god, look at all of this capital expansion. Look at all this investment. Look at all this, you know, money that that a company is making." One company sold chips to another for whatever, 100 million dollars or whatever, doesn't matter.
The other company then will take that that money and they won't necessarily count the 100 million as a full expense in the first year. They'll do that over 5 years. So, one company makes Well, makes 100 million. The other company in their in their books would say, "Oh, the expense is only 200." Sorry, 20 million, right?
And then you'll do that 20 million each year over 5 years. The thing is though, the the next year, say year two, let's say no one buys any chips from Nvidia. So, that's that revenue is is zero at that point, right? And then the company who bought the first year, the second year they'll they'll basically have an expense of 20 million.
And so, now suddenly you're down 20 million. And then the next year after that, again, no revenue, no one's buying any chips anymore, and you're down yet another 20 million, right? And it And it goes out over time. And so, if you understand the sort of basic accounting logic here, you'll get how uh numbers can go whoop and then suddenly really, really crash.
Uh so, that's sort of what's going on. I do appreciate your time, everyone, and I'll catch you all in the next video.
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