저자: ChrisNorlund · 외국인
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결론: 발표자는 시장 하락과 경기침체 위험을 경고하며 현금 확보와 신중한 투자를 권한다. 캐시 우드(ARK)는 상류 물가 디플레이션이 하류로 전이될 가능성을 언급하며 연준이 인플레이션과 고용지표에 과도하게 집중한다고 주장한다. 발표자는 이를 근거 부족한 주장으로 보고, 금리 인상이 우드의 성장주 투기 포지션에 큰 타격을 준다고 본다. 우드가 비트코인 100만 달러를 예측했던 점도 비판한다. 제이미 다이먼(JP모건)은 CNBC 인터뷰에서 신용시장 균열과 패닉이 ETF나 특정 국가에서 나타날 수 있다고 경고했다. 그는 S&P500이 아직 더 하락할 여지가 있으며 추가로 약 20% 하락할 수 있고, 금리가 100bp 더 오르면 첫 100bp보다 더 고통스러울 것이라고 말했다. 발표자는 이를 기관들이 사전에 말하지 않고 뒤늦게 진실을 말하는 것으로 해석한다. 발표자는 S&P500 PE가 약 18.26으로 평균 16보다 높고 버핏 지표도 추세선 위 약 20%라며 주식이 여전히 고평가 상태라고 본다. 실업률은 현재 약 3.5%이나 5~10%까지 오를 수 있다고 주장하며, 연준의 물가 우선 정책으로 실직이 발생할 수 있다고 경고한다. 삼성전자, 소니, 알리바바, 애플, 테슬라 등을 비교 차트로 제시하며 과거 버블 붕괴 사례를 강조한다. 삼성전자 PE는 약 8.5 수준이라고 언급했다. 미국채 10년 금리는 4.3% 수준으로 언급되며 안전자산 대비 주식의 매력 감소를 지적한다. 전반적으로 발표자는 달러 강세를 근거로 해외 거주·여행을 권하고, 기술주 둔화와 성장주 위험을 강조하며 구조적 부패론을 제기한다. 장기적으로 기술과 역량 개발을 통해 직업 안정성을 확보하라고 조언한다.
다듬은 글
so Kathy Wood of arkhanvest is saying the FED is risking an economic bust and Jamie Diamond of JP Morgan is saying we could go down another 20 from here hey everyone this is Chris and uh this is your daily uncut news so um I gotta start with this guys it's the whole Kathy Wood thing and what Jamie Dyer is saying and kind of what's frustrating about this whole system is I feel like and this is truthful is either people are too stupid to tell you the truth or they know the truth but they're frankly just been lying to you all this time and it's really frustrating because there's so much bad information out there and I try my best to show you guys you know where we are where we're going that kind of stuff Andy before they Frank um because I tell you the truth it's not that popular people prefer to live in Fantasyland and it's unfortunate because you know now that it's too hard too hard to hide uh what's really happening then something oh okay okay now we'll tell you the truth so that's just what's going on and I mean um you know when when the CEO of JP Morgan right when they make money off people investing and they make money off Deals they make money off to essentially manage you your money when you know he's coming out in the media and say hey we care about another 20 over here this is not by like some random statement or random mistake right the stuff is planned in terms of they're very careful of what they say in public because you know they manage people's money and the big monies is like hey what's going on over there JP Morgan what are you doing but to be honest guys though I heard from a lot of friends on Wall Street that people were getting out you know a while ago and I mentioned to you guys as well but it's not something they would necessarily uh talk about in the media because it's not popular right um people want to hear how they're all going to be rich and you know the whole Kathy Wood thing is it's pretty ridiculous actually basically um she wrote a open letter on her website you can read it but it's not it's not really worth your time to be honest um but the basic the basic gist of it is she's like okay I'll read the Lang the key language here in this summary we delineate uh first the Upstream price deflation and that is likely to turn into Downstream deflation then we focus on two variables employment and headline inflation upon which the FED seems to be making decisions in our view of both our legging indicators so um the basic gist of it is she thinks the FED concentrates too much on inflation and causes too much uh on unemployment and um she's making the case that uh because Commodities have fallen down on price that we're facing a deflationary environment um the kind of crazy thing about this and and why it's crazy is you know we have massive inflation and we just frankly we need some deflation and she's trying to say it's bad the issue is that you know with Rising interest rates uh all of her sort of speculative plays and stuff like that because essentially the cost of money goes uh goes up really really affects all of her growth crazy growth picks and um you know remember she's the person who was saying that Bitcoin is going to go to a million dollars so it's it's kind of crazy um you know it it is what it is and and you know it's frustrating because like I remember there's like Channel after Channel um that would basically just reiterate whatever she said and just basically Arc invest cheerleaders and I'd be curious what those what those channels are saying now you guys are in the comments if you guys write these things but um I point this out a long time ago and uh it is what it is um you know I I I talked about this stuff I I don't know I just I I just like I said I just find the system be really corrupt either people are too stupid to know the truth or they're frankly uh smart enough but they're just lying to you and it's like now to finally come out and say hey everyone you know things look really bad but it's like it's been obvious for quite a long time um they just can't hide it anymore and so um this is sort of what um uh Jamie dimon is saying here um the likely place you're getting to see more crack and maybe a little more of panic is in the credit markets and it might be ETFs it might be a country it might be something you don't expect this is a dime in an interview to CNBC if you make a list of all the prior crises uh sitting here would uh would not have predicted where we came from though I think you could predict this time that it probably will happen so anytime I recession so if I was out there I'd be very cautious if you need money go raise it um it's so ridiculous so basically like they're getting a bunch of clients saying like what should I do what should I do and he's like well if you need the cash I wouldn't leave the money in the market right now that's what I'm saying because that's what that's what it is advising clients is it's um you know because they're getting these comments these conversations but it's the problem is why it's so corrupt is you should be telling people this stuff a year ago or whatever right not like after it's crashed you know 30 percent Diamond said the S P 500 may have a ways to go that's a quote in its Decline and another quote and it could be another easy 20 um the index is already down 25 you guys know this year then he's saying the next 20 will have much more painful than the first uh rates going up another 100 basis points are a lot more painful than the first hundred because people aren't used to it and uh basically it's a tiny of the credit markets um I'm gonna make a more detailed um video if I have time I'll try my best but um the basic thing I want to talk with you guys about is um uh Ben Bernanke uh got them what Nobel Peace Prize for economics um and uh if you don't know anything about this whole thing it's it's sort of uh he and um the the FED were all about printing money and essentially bailing out the banks which is a controversial thing after the um 0809 crisis um if you guys live to this thing you'll remember and you'll also probably remember Occupy Wall Street which I very much remember I didn't go because I was out of the country that's how I felt about the whole situation I'm out of country again as you guys uh obviously know we're in Korea and I've been telling you guys um you know the Dollar's strong and if you want to live abroad if you want to travel Now's the Time to go uh I don't think the dollar will weaken um you know anytime soon because it's not like the Dollar's just gonna suddenly crash tomorrow it's not going to be like that and one thing I want to point out to you is sort of um I want to show you some a little bit of history of just to compare companies and something that's really interesting to look at because because I know people wanted to say hey Chris but what about the markets I like that I mean I get it guys but I just want you guys to understand the whole system because if you don't understand this this main system of of Corruption of what you know information stuff like that it's gonna be real tough for you to be successful I mean you got to just learn to look at numbers and have a general sense of where you're at and and you'll do much better of seeing the numbers for yourself opposed to just like oh well Kathy would tell me everything's gonna go up right um and uh it's just not necessarily always the case so why am i showing you the Samsung chart because I want to show you some comparisons it's really quite interesting if you look at this stuff so Samsung's a good company right you guys know this who doesn't know Samsung and you can see over time the stocks mostly got up it's done okay right the problem is though is you got to look at back in history and you can see this one here this is Sony because they've been public longer than Samsung that's why the charts are different but you can see here nothing lasts forever in uh 2000 um you guys can see that Sony had a big spike and um actually during the um during the 90s uh there used to be a ton of movies about how Japan was going to take over USA there was lots of protests actually in the 80s it was a lot of protests but the one I'm thinking about in particular is um I want to say it was called Rising Sun it was Sean Connery and uh oh what was the other dude um it's a dude in Demolition Man uh Wesley Snipes sorry brain fart for a minute there um but uh the basic idea though there was a fear that Japan was going to take over and all this stuff and you know it's interesting because you can see how the.com bubble uh really deflated uh Sony um and and uh for a long time Sony was a major major company and it's not it's not like it's disappeared right we still have so many PlayStations and stuff like that but the Walkman in the 80s was was massive for Sony and they had a huge uh recovery um the Japanese economy I mean after uh World War II and I'm sure you guys know this so if you know history um much of the world was destroyed and and actually uh Japan came out ahead after World War II and then Korea rebuilt also too but Korea was a little bit later because um the Korean war was after World War II but um I just wanted to show you this is is you know Sony used to be just a Powerhouse in terms of stock and of growing but the.com bubble really deflated that and um it's interesting too because this is another example of a tech stock this is um Alibaba which um was a internet darling for quite a while right and you can see here um I think it peaked around I don't know 2021 um it's an interesting company because people you know with this assume it's going to be Amazon forever uh that kind of thing online shopping but the thing is what I would warn people about for a long time is was a couple one was the Chinese Communist Party another one was the slowing growth of China both economically and birth rates actually is a real problem so this is why that we when we go through the news you want to understand the full picture not just look at a bunch of charts even though I said yes look at numbers I wasn't lying about that but um the uh the thing is you gotta kind of take everything uh in in uh as a whole right not just isolated bits of information um Apple's interesting when you compare it to like these are all major companies um it just basically had this massive boom and um if you saw my video basically a brief history of um Economic Policy uh please take a look at that if you haven't seen her I could say brief history of crashes that's the better I look at it um it's a fun one you'll find it I I tell it um quantitative tightening uh just take a look at it for that video If you haven't seen already but basically Apple made some big moves um after 0809 in terms of stock price uh the same way a lot of stocks the same way that Bitcoin Tesla stuff like that it's not by mistake right uh our whole system is it was built on essentially bailing out the banks printing money and yes we had economic boom so in that regard if you want to say that uh benrenic observes the Nobel Prize for printing money and go for it but um you know this is sort of what we're kind of in this weird era of like okay so we're gonna print again is that what we're gonna do or we're gonna completely are we serious about not printing anymore and um are we actually serious about say deflationary type of things even though Kathy wooden and her team will be complaining about that but you know you got to make that choice right do you want to keep living in a bubble forever or do you want to you know try to control that um you theoretically can live in a bubble forever it is possible um I I just want to let you know as long as you know we're in a bubble it's like kind of the matrix it's like you can live in The Matrix forever but uh you know it's not real um you know if if you take a look at this and this is always an interesting one um to take a look at is the PE ratio of apples around 24 I think 4p is roughly the same in the in the mid-20s that kind of thing um historically though um say in the mid uh teens like 2014-ish apple is trading around you know 12 13 14 PE if you guys don't understand this this is the price of the stock compared to how much the company earns and um you usually want to think about like what is a fair price of uh is essentially does your earnings growth uh does that exceed your p e ratio so um the general just is you know if we're going into say a recessionary environment where we maybe have negative GDP growth uh do we think a company like an apple is going to trade at say you know 25 or 20 24 p e but I mean like are they going to grow their earning 25 a year or something like that um and it's interesting because when you look at like something like a Samsung when their PE ratio is like 8.52 and yes it it's not exactly uh Apples to Apples but I just want you to just to show that this is the not like a you know fake company Samsung's a legitimate company you guys know that or even like you know Sony which is I guess unprofitable which is really interesting to if we ever dig it through so many numbers because they don't have a p ratio I find that very interesting um because I I haven't deep dived to Sony for a while so um that might be interesting one to do in the future um the thing is like most people and this is this is how it is guys but most people on YouTube don't care about these kind of stuff so that's why you don't say do it because if you do it it's like people like why are you making that stupid video and I promise you guys um you know like for example I was making videos about resume writing and stuff like that but people are interested in that stuff because they don't think it's happening but I'm telling you the recession is a real thing and you want to be prepared um you know and I'll show you some things at the end which uh will make sense while we're talking about it now um you know if you take a look at other charts uh to your treasuries at 4.3 um it's tough for stocks when you can take something safe and uh guaranteed you know um one things that you always want to do when you manage your money is you diversify put your things in and put your stuff in in different things and and you want to sort of determine how much risk is appropriate for you you know according to this this is the Buffet indicator you guys can see here so what are we at now we're about 20 above the trend line and so you know uh generally speaking you you think of the market like rubber bands it goes up too high it'll eventually come back down it goes down too low to eventually come back to the mean that's the general theory of it um and it's not a crazy theory that you know things tend to trade upon upon their mean this compares the value of the market to the GDP so you know how are stocks uh value compared to how much the economy is growing and we shrank for a couple quarters and um we'll see where we end up in the next GDP read um you know we'll see you know I'm looking at this this is your S P 500 PE ratio um and uh this is a good way to look at it because you're thinking okay how many standard deviations are we from the means again that's the idea is that the market trades along the mean um this would suggest over 32 above the average if you want some raw numbers we'll take a look at that um you can see here the s p p e ratio is what 18.26 as of today the mean is about 16.
so we're a little bit behind and we checked the stuff because you want to know kind of where we are right um because people are like Hey where's the bottom uh well either stocks need to come down in price or earnings that companies need to go up so stocks are definitely coming down in price but um we're going into earnings things we're going to find out uh we certainly could get some prizes that is that is a real thing I I don't see it happening myself um but you never know what they're going to say I I have a feeling uh though since we're already being kind of warned uh is that companies are like hey everyone we're a little bit nervous about the future and I think what scared people was essentially there's a couple things with one is um it just seems like the war in Ukraine may never end it's just what it feels like it doesn't mean it's gonna happen that way but I'm saying this is what it feels like as it's escalating uh today and um the other thing is too is uh the unemployment doesn't seem to be going down like it quote should be uh depends how you want to talk about it um you know the thing is I I noticed this and this is sort of why I was telling you guys that um no one wants to tell you the truth I've been telling you guys for a long time that I keep saying that unemployment is going to go up I've mentioned this for a while and and um now they're starting to tell you the truth this is sort of like hey today everyone's starting to tell you the truth it's Monday and let's tell everyone the truth because we can't hide it anymore after those unemployment data came out uh was it last week already I guess um so you can see here the headline fed Evan says fighting inflation is top priority even if that means job losses and does a quote um if unemployment goes up that's unfortunate if it goes up a lot that's really difficult but price stability makes the future better so basically he's saying you're gonna lose your job um it's gonna wait it has to be because we just got to have a control on on price as the end the reality is is that if you guys take a look at this this is a history of essentially unemployment um we're at around three and a half percent at the moment um and if you go back in history let's look at the chart for yourself this is why I say unemployment could go anywhere from uh to say five to ten percent because we've seen it before it's not like we have it right I'm not just making random numbers up and so um you know do I know exactly where it's going to go no I can't predict the future 100 it's just too hard to tell you how many companies are going to fire people and and which companies exactly but I do know there will be slow downs that's why I've been I always show you guys like oh this company's slowing down this company's slowing down it's probably going to hit Tech first as we've talked about several times but I keep looking for five to ten the FED who originally was saying four and a half uh next year and talking about unemployment um but now they're starting to change their language a bit uh when they're saying this kind of stuff so um this is why I I always say you know the best way to ensure success is is to develop your skills to make sure you have jobs that that pay you uh because you always want to be sort of useful to someone valuable to someone if you have skills that aren't valuable to people or that you're easily replaced it's a tough time because you can't count on the markets going up forever especially when they started the language of quantitative tightening so this is sort of a thing that's been going on they're raising interest rates and now you have Kathy Wood complaining about a deflationary environment and warning that things will go economically bust and Jamie diamonds even now saying publicly uh we could go down another 20 from here so um that's what's going on and if you want to stay updated I do appreciate you guys joining us um for this uh daily uh uncut news
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