저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
TSMC는 AI 수요 급증 속에서 지정학·관세 리스크를 잘 관리하고 있다. 2nm(N2) 공정은 N3 대비 같은 전력에서 10~15% 속도 향상 또는 같은 속도에서 20~30% 전력 절감, 칩 밀도 15% 이상 증가를 제공하며 2025년 하반기 양산 예정. A16은 2026년 하반기 양산 예정. 하이퍼스케일러들의 AI 데이터센터 투자는 올해 2000억 달러 이상으로 전망되며 전력·공급 제약이 큰 상황. CoWoS 수요도 여전히 공급을 초과. 미국 고객사 요구로 애리조나 생산 확대가 진행 중이며 고객사가 전환 비용을 보조할 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
Taiwan semiconductor is managing several huge factors amid disruptions worldwide. For one, it's benefiting from hich is creating booming demand for its manufacturing processes. On the other hand, it's dealing with increasing geopolitical tension, rising tariffs, and the need to diversify its manufacturing base.
It's doing that very well up to this point in my opinion from what I've seen from the company over the previous two years. Capitalizing on opportunities while minimizing disruption and working with its customers to keep supplies moving smoothly. So, in this video, I'm going to elaborate a little bit on the latest developments, the things that Taiwan semiconductor investors should know about if they're deciding on buying, selling, or holding I mentioned that Taiwan Semiconductor is experiencing a surge in demand as a result of rising effectiveness of AI and Taiwan Semiconductor has invested aggressively in research and development to keep progress moving forward.
Its latest technology N2 two nanometer technology will deliver full node performance and power benefits with a 10 to 15% speed improvement at the same power or 20 to 30% power improvement at the same speed and more than 15% chip density increase as compared to its N3 or 3 nanometer technology. and two is well on track for volume production in the second half of this year.
So let me discuss why this is critical for TSM investors. The building out of these data centers optimized for AI is accelerating rapidly. The large hyperscalers will spend more than $200 billion in expanding these data centers optimized for AI this year. And many of them when I reviewed their conference call and reviewed what their management teams are saying, they would have spent even more money if they weren't constrained on certain supplies and power energy.
So this technology from Taiwan Semiconductor, one of the it addresses one of the most important categories right now, which is power benefits. So, it'll deliver the same performance as people are getting right now, but with the 10 to 15% speed improvement at the same level. Or if they want to save power, they can get the same level of performance with a roughly 20 to 30% improvement in power consumption.
That would be huge. Furthermore, you get 15% chip density, meaning you can fit more of these chips inside a data center optimized for AI. So, you don't need to expand the data center. You can use the existing space you have and apply 15% more of this technology into an existing space. So it delivers on several fronts and undoubtedly demand for this next generation technology will be quite high and it'll allow companies like Nvidia, AMD to utilize the increase in performance capability to deliver more powerful technology and it'll allow them to make the leaps forward in their chip designs because they'll have more to work with.
TSM is also working on a specific chip A16 that's best suited for high performance computing products with complex signal route and dense power delivery network and volume production for this is scheduled for the second half of 2026. So even though we've seen great progress on the artificial intelligence front, there is more on the way because of these improvements that Taiwan Semiconductor and others are able to deliver.
They're able to invest in this technology. And uh Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has said we reached the limits in terms of the improvements in CPU power in terms of CPU technology but for GPU technology which is the technology that's fueling the improvement in artificial intelligence. The CEO for Nvidia said we're just getting started with that technology.
There's a long runway for continued improvement in GPU technology and this is uh evidence of that fact. Taiwan semiconductor making progress and developing next generation technology that has pretty strong improvement from previous generation technologies. TSM also talked about their co-was technology and the demand used to be insane for this technology much much higher than they could prepare for and they've since then improved their supply capabilities but they're still building building more supply to meet this demand.
And this is another category where people who are businesses were supply constrained and that problem is being alleviated somewhat by improvements. This was also really important because many investors were concerned about TSM's expansion plans outside of Taiwan. But the company talked about the reason why they're doing this and they said the reason why we are expanding in Arizona is because of their customer requests.
And that's because of very very high demand. They announced in other occasions that they that there is very strong AI demand from their US customers like Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm and Broadcom. And these companies, the reason they want Taiwan Semiconductor to have manufacturing capability in the United States is so they can decrease their supply chain risk.
They are aware of the geopolitical tensions between China and Taiwan and they are aware of increasing tariffs, increasing pressure from President Donald Trump. And so they've been pushing and asking and requesting Taiwan semiconductor to expand their manufacturing capabilities in the United States. and they are likely going to offer concessions to Taiwan Semiconductor to help facilitate the geographic expansion in the supply chain because they understand that Taiwan Semiconductor will face higher costs in order to make that diversification.
And so these large companies will offer some benefits to Taiwan Semiconductor. They might say that we'll pay you higher prices. We'll pay more of our payments upfront. We'll make longerterm commitments to make purchases. Whatever helps Taiwan Semiconductor ease that transition for diversifying their supply chain.
these large buyers are are willing to work with Taiwan Semiconductor because it's a mutually beneficial agreement, a mutually beneficial situation and they'll work together to bring that supply chain to the United States to help reduce the risks and reduce the tariff exposure that these companies face.
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