저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
Faber는 장기적으로 현재 금융시스템이 지속 불가능한 부채 위에 있어 결국 조정이 온다고 본다. 자산 디플레이션이 와도 귀금속은 주식보다 덜 떨어질 것이며 투자자는 최대 수익뿐 아니라 최소 손실을 고민해야 한다고 강조. 금은 자산의 25~30% 정도를 권장. 트럼프의 적자 확대 정책은 귀금속에 호재이며, 연준은 금리를 내리기보다 올려야 할 가능성도 있다고 본다. 주식은 미국 대비 신흥국(홍콩, 태국)이 저평가되어 장기 매력이 있다고 주장. 중국 부동산은 바닥을 칠 것으로 예상.
다듬은 글
I would also like to say that if we have the asset deflation that I would expect I would think that gold and silver and platinum will also go down in price but much less than other financial assets. You know the stock market say in 1929 dropped 90% in Hong Kong in 7374 the stock market also dropped 90%.
But gold and silver they didn't go down that much and in some case they went up. So I think that investors investors are conditioned to think how do I make the most money? Mid and small cap stocks have remained under pressure in 2025 due to an earnings slowdown and weak demand. Gold's performance highlights the importance of asset allocation.
Not only has it outperformed other asset classes in 2025, but it has also delivered robust annualized returns over the past decade. Midcap equities delivered the highest returns over the last 10 years, followed by gold, which outpaced inflation by a significant margin. Renowned publisher of the gloom boom and doom report, Mark Faber, warns that in a severe asset deflation, even precious metals could decline, but far less than equities.
He stresses that investors should focus not only on maximizing gains but also on minimizing losses in crisis scenarios. Reports suggest that Meta, led by Mark Zuckerberg, has adjusted its financial strategy by reducing exposure to long-term bonds and increasing its gold holdings. Central banks across the world purchased more than 1,000 tons of gold in 2022, the highest figure in over five decades.
A longtime supporter of precious metals, Mark Fabber warns that today's financial system is built on unsustainable debt. He explains that while money printing ultimately fuels inflation, it shifts from asset inflation to rising consumer prices. Increased inflation is also a likely consequence of a US economy with a growing national debt.
The same Yale Budget Lab study noted that a deficit increase of 1% of GDP would raise inflation to the degree that after 5 years a household would lose 300 to $1,250 in purchasing power in 2024. Reflecting on past crashes, Faber remains bearish on the US dollar in the long term and believes that most investors dangerously lack exposure to gold and silver.
Over the past 5 years, gold has outpaced nearly every major fiat currency. In 2018, gold was priced at around $1,200 per ounce. By mid 2025, it has surged past $2,400 per ounce, an increase of over 100%. Before we dive into Mark Faber's sharp insights from his latest interview, make sure to hit that subscribe button and tap the bell icon so you never miss a moment when truth meets the market.
Let's get into it. this money printing we have, the deficits we have and so forth, they will have to be corrected at some point. Now, is it going to happen this year or in 10 years or even 20 years? We don't know. But it's not sustainable. It is sustainable in the sense that as long as central banks can print money, they can postpone the problem.
But the problem of course magnifies itself because uh at some point money printing leads to price increases in consumer goods. Now 1980 to recently to say 2020 we had mostly asset inflation. Prices of real estate, prices of commercial properties, prices of stocks, bonds and so all went up. But now we have price increases.
And so for the majority of people the standards of living are going down. Their cost of living is going up more than their earnings. So the standards of living is going down. That will create a lack of demand. You look at the housing market, the housing industry, the prices are near highs. Okay? They're down say 10 20% from the peak, but they're still much higher than in the last bubble in 2006 2007.
The problem is the affordability. Goldman Sachs, they produce some graphs which show that the affordability is at an all-time low. The price of your parents' house is at a record high, but nobody can buy it. They can buy it if your neighbor sells his house at an inflated price. He can buy your parents' house at an inflated price.
But young people who joined the labor force at the present time, they have a huge problem of affordability. And not just for housing for lots of other things as well. So the point is there are limits to creating prosperity with money printing. You can create an illusion of wells that you can real wells.
You can't create with money print. Otherwise we would all be on the beach and we would have money printing machines or computers do the job for us. That leaves me by my view about the question about is gold and silver still desirable. Whoever bought gold in 1980, he paid $800 an ounce. That was the peak of the market at the time.
Office gold went down $250 an ounce in 99. Over the period 1980 to 999, 20 years, gold was not a good investment. I'm telling people don't put all your money in gold. Although it may be the right thing to do. I don't know. Have some gold as a reserve. I think a reasonable reserve is say 25 to 30% of your assets in precious metals.
But if you talk to Eric Strod and some other gold experts, they think you should have 90% of your assets in gold. I have many friends they have 90% of their wealths in gold or silver or gold mines. I don't because I see one thing if you have good companies essentially a good company can uh survive during monetary inflation and it can also survive during war times and so forth.
It takes eight say the biggest companies in Germany in 1900 BASF and so forth and buyer and Mercedes and all these companies they're still around today. They've done well and they survived the hyperinflation. They survived the depression years. They survived uh the first world war and the and they survived Hitler and so forth and so on is remarkable.
But that's the fact price is time. You don't want to be all in cash cuz they're going to print. Especially if you look at Mr. Trump. Yeah. And the Fed. Um talk about if you would if you have an opinion on the drama going around the Fed. There's a lot of pressure on Jerome either to get him replaced or to lower rates.
And it seems like this is playing out exactly how you they're going to print. So it doesn't really matter if it's Pal because it looks like it doesn't and it looks like he will be replaced. That's not a prediction, just my thoughts. But whoever else they do put in there and even if it is Mr. propelled.
They're just going to lower rates to continue the stimulus, which is crazy, which is good for gold investors, which I am, but it's just it's just crazy, I think. I mean, it may surprise you, and I wrote a report recently that I warned my readers not to fall off their chairs. In 40 years, I have actually something good to say about the Fed chairman.
But in the present situation and the price pressure is still on and the deficit is still on, the Fed should not cut rates. Actually, I would argue there's a good chance that this year, not that the Fed will do it, but that this year actually the Fed should increase interest rates. There's a good chance that price a lot because the the imports duties the tariffs they will increase the prices of many goods.
Comment and talk a little bit about China. China looks like it's going through a massive deflationary pressure here. Also this trade war going on. Do you still see China as a place to put money as well as um yeah it just seems like it's a quite quite the mess right now. Well, they have one sector that is very messy and that is the real estate sector.
It's likely to sort of bottom out in the not so distant future. And once it bottoms out, I would not expect a huge increase in prices. Although it's like in the western world, the rich people are very liquid. They're buying properties. Mhm. Because someone who has money in China says to himself or or anywhere in the world, I rather have $10 million in a property than in financial assets which could go down by 90%, the property may drop 50%.
If the stock market drops 90% and I drop 50%, then I'm still reasonably well off. I would also like to say that if we have the asset deflation that I would expect I would think that gold and silver and platinum will also go down in price much less than other financial assets. You know the stock market say in 1929 dropped 90% in Hong Kong in 7374 the stock market also dropped 90%.
Gold and silver they didn't go down that much and in some case they went up. I think investors investors are conditioned to think how do I make the most money. I think the investors should also think how do I lose the least money if something goes wrong. more and more people will wake up wealthy people and they will say to themselves what is safe and uh they will say okay I don't care about the price of gold I just want to have some money in precious metals and bury them on my farm in Texas or Hawaii or where or keep them in a safe deposit box or keep them in Singapore or Hong Kong or Switzerland and so because I don't trust anymore the financial system.
I I have always said it's a big big mistake of investors to trust central banks. I would agree. And governments, you look at the government officials in Europe and in the US, I mean, it doesn't give you a lot of confidence. Gold is one of the best places for investors to be following the Trump administration's recent tariff announcements against the European Union and other major trading partners.
According to the latest reports from banking giants Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS, seasoned expert Mark Faber believes tariffs have minimal direct impact on precious metals, but sees Trump's deficit expanding policies as highly bullish for gold and silver. Faber argues that liquidity remains abundant despite high interest rates, as evidenced by the surge in asset prices.
He sees the weak dollar and bond market as proof that money isn't tight. He measures true asset value in terms of gold and silver due to ongoing monetary inflation. One month ago, the price of gold was $3,440 per ounce, reflecting a 2.63% decrease from the current price. Historically, gold has been an asset that appreciates over time, making it a prudent choice for investors seeking an asset less vulnerable to inflation.
Ultimately, Faber suggests investors focus on undervalued emerging markets like Hong Kong and Thailand rather than overpriced US tech stocks. Despite weak fundamentals, their low asset prices offer strong upside potential. Let's get back to the interview. The tariffs by themselves do not have much of an impact on on price of precious metals.
But in general, Trump must be regarded as a gift of God for the holders of precious metals because his policies increase the deficit. There's no question about this. And as the deficit goes up, it will necessitate sooner or later to pursue an even easier monetary policy, even expansionary than we have at the present time.
And here I need to stress one point. Investors look at the market and they say, "Okay, interest rates are too high or they gone up." and therefore money has become tight. I disagree with that. In fact, I would argue that there is more liquidity in the system today than there was when interest rates were at zero.
And it's difficult to measure liquidity, but I can say that if money was really tight, bitcoins wouldn't make a new high, gold wouldn't make a new high, silver wouldn't make a new high, the stock market wouldn't make a new high, and the bond market would be acting better because in a tight monetary environment, the bond market would smell that the recession is going to happen but no bond market is actually acting badly.
In other words, uh the bond market doesn't have much confidence that money is tight. In fact, as they cut rates after September 2024, in an environment of fed fund rate cuts, the bond market should rally somewhat. But no, it didn't happen. So but my view is uh that money is actually plentiful and many analysts have been wrong about the stock market because they thought oh money is tight money if money was tight the dollar would be strong right
that is the clearest sign and you know I'm telling people we are in an environment of um monetary inflation and in monetary inflation it's very difficult to measure. I have portfolios they are valued in euros. have portfolios. They're very valued in dollars. And I personally I look at essentially asset prices in terms of gold and silver and platinum because I think that is the fair uh fair reflection of the rate of price depreciation in terms of purchasing power.
And when I look at all these things, the stock market, some people say, "Oh, it's making a new high." Nonsense. Making a new high in nominal terms, but not in euro terms, in gold terms. I think if I look around the world and stock markets, what strikes me is that for the last 10 15 years, say after n 2009 was in uh on March 6, 2009, S&P 666, the US market has performed superbly and European markets and especially emerging markets and specifically Hong Kong, China did miserably.
So we have an environment when if you ask people well what do you do the investor has to decide does he buy the stocks that are making new highs like Nidia that are highly priced or does he buy the depressed sectors in the markets? In my view, he should buy the depressed sectors, mostly the emerging markets.
There's nothing particularly good about emerging markets except they are relatively inexpensive. I mean, I live in Thailand. Uh there's nothing good about the Thai economic political situation, but the country functions and the asset values are relatively low. The market has been going down. This year we're down something like 20%.
And uh I think if you buy say Thai stock or you buy Hong Kong shares over five years you will have a reasonably good return. I mean I been telling people everybody in Hong Kong knows me I stop to doom because during the boom in Hong Kong I was very negative about the real estate market but now that property prices are down so much and uh we have we have deflation in China.
So the price level is actually has become is not cheap. I want to make clear but relative to other cities in Europe and America, Hong Kong is now more affordable than it ever was before. I think that Hong Kong offers investors with an opportunity. Analysts predict that the price of gold could reach $6,800 an ounce by 2040, estimating a rate of return of 7.2% per year.
Gold is no longer a relic of the past. It is becoming the preferred refuge of those who see what's coming. As billionaires, banks, and governments shift into gold, the question arises, who will be left holding devalued promises, and who will hold real value? Drop your thoughts in the comment section below.
If you find this video informative, don't forget to support our channel and turn on notifications to stay informed about our latest videos. See you in the following video.
Comments 0