저자: Kevin · 외국인
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크립토 급락의 원인으로 이더리움 머지 후 채굴자 청산 압력, 머지 후 스테이킹 락업 해제에 따른 공급 증가, 연준 유동성 흡수 등 거시 요인, 그리고 블록체인 기술 가치와 시가총액 간 괴리를 든다. 비트코인 하락은 거시 긴축에 따른 것으로 보고, 이더리움은 소문에 팔고 사실에 파는 현상과 머지 후 매도 압력이 겹쳤다고 분석한다. 단기 방향은 단정하지 않으며 규제 강화 가능성도 언급한다.
다듬은 글
crypto crash is trending on Twitter and you know what that means lots of crypto memes and very little in the way of actual data or information to tell us why the he double hockey sticks is crypto having such a rough time after all this rough time really started around the time of June when Jim Cramer started getting a little rough against uh well crypto in General on Twitter and uh then it was seen as a Buy Signal you know generally people have taken a contrarian take on Jim Cramer and thought hey if Jim's complaining about crypto prices in June it must be a sign of the bottom and it was for a brief period of time as we retraced from about 17 596 back to a high of about 25 300 for BTC mid-august nice rally that sort of corresponded with what was going on in the NASDAQ but we only made it from a zero percent retracement to a 23.6 retracement that's not very good now in nominal terms we went from about went 225 from about 17 and a half that's about a 42 percent gain that very very nice especially when you compare it to the indices certainly a far cry from what we've seen at the top of the market back in November of 2021 so when we look at the retracement lines from that point of view it doesn't look like we're getting anywhere but this is still a 42 gain from bottom but why is it then that we're revisiting that bottom and why is it that now post-etheria merge we're starting to see pain again after all take a look at the numbers Bitcoin is down 12.57 percent over the last seven days ethereum down almost 19 and a half percent in just seven days sure ethereum's proof of work token basically old school ethereum before the old old school token ethereum classic right ethereum p-o-w proof of Works looks like it's up 31.5 percent but when you go to what it was originally around 130 to 133 dollars it's actually now only a six dollar token it's lost a lot of course you're going to have fluctuations along the bottom but again it's not just these tokens uh it's a lot of tokens look at cardano down to 45 cents Solana down to thirty two dollars down twelve percent polka dot down 17 polygon Shiba Inu Avalanche all of these down about 18 17 to 18 it's a lot even ethereum classic dropping as much as 20 and this is where we're going to discuss four reasons why the crypto crash is really hurting right now especially with ethereum number one let's talk about ethereum so ethereum post merge was supposed to Moon I mean we're using less than nine less than five percent of the energy that we're using before some say even less than that we're saving 95 plus percent of the energy that we're using on proof of work now just to operate a proof of staking protocol it's really really quite incredible able and there are lock-ups for those who have staked their ethereum into ethereum 2.0 the problem that we're seeing now though is that the miners who are mining ethereum who are in the business of making money through ethereum now face the potential risk of bankruptcy if they have not properly prepared themselves for this transition because unfortunately even though after the fork to proof of stake proof of work remained active miners thought that the valuation of ethereum proof of work might actually provide some form of income for them to slowly phase out and close their businesses but unfortunately when we go from 133 dollars of proof of work ethereum all the way down to under six dollars you don't have a lot of assets left now of course a lot of ethereum miners do have money staked at ethereum 2.0 but a lot of their additional profits at least from what I'm hearing within the crypto industry is especially from miners said a lot of the profits of these businesses were not thrown into ethereum 2.0 they were reinvested into more chips and more Cooling and more space so that way they could expand their mining operations and ethereum miners regularly believed that when the merge came they would just be able to transition to mining for other proof-of-work currencies Dogecoin for example is one of the largest proof of work currencies now that ethereum has moved over following of course Bitcoin now that's remarkable because it's Dogecoin but it's also remarkable because not a lot of people actually transact in Dogecoin unless of course you're purchasing stuff from the Tesla shop in Dosh which is pretty epic but still kind of an expensive and burdensome process for a lot of folks who are not familiar with transacting in cryptocurrencies and not seeing a lot of transactions there therefore there's not that much proof of work to actually do we need volume for proof-of-work miners in my opinion what's happening is you have a lot of these miners who are now liquidating assets dumping their ethereum proof of work in almost a fire sale to try to survive unfortunately many of them won't and many of them will be forced into bankruptcy and that is unfortunately where the next phase of ethereum comes from and that is the post merge lockup expiration sometime between 6 to 12 months after the merge we were told that ethereum stakers who put their money into ethereum 2.0 and waited years for this merge to happen we'll have the opportunity probably entrances to start selling their ethereum to the market Unfortunately they chose a currently technical recession to complete the merge in and they may end up having a lot lock up expiration during an actual recession or maybe even depression at that point just depending on when the lockup expiration is given that there are a lot of folks in the crypto crypto ecosystem who have built businesses on top of crypto who may have to liquidate ethereum just to either stay out of bankruptcy or to fulfill judgments or liens unfortunately I think there is going to be a lot of selling pressure now I've made videos on this before the post-etherium merge potential selling pressure and how deep the post-etherium merge crash could be now that could lead if you compound that to about a 35 percent a drop in ethereum prices because of this excess Supply but the argument that's made in the crypto Community is don't worry we'll be able to absorb all of that excess ethereum okay fine but that's partial withdrawals and so now and this is the part that's totally up to speculation we have to determine how many validators who currently have staked ethereum or Acres who are part of validating networks how many of them are going to fully withdraw from the ethereum network versus partially withdraw or just straight up huddle obviously if everyone fully withdraws will have problems but that's also where ethereum developers will likely have some form of limits currently the limit is five validators can withdraw completely from the network per Epoch remember there are 225 epochs per day now this limit could change we might see 10 per Epoch at lockup and the estimate here from data data data analysts excuse me is the potential of about a supply of 65 000 to 80 000 ethereum in addition to the partial lock-ups per day that in my opinion would represent an approximately 10 additional Supply hit or an additional availability of 10 on the daily traded volume for ethereum for probably the first few weeks of the Theory emerge which could Compound on top of that 32 to 35 percent from parts or partial withdrawals now that doesn't again necessarily mean that prices will come down this much because again people could be buying the dip and we could see a lot of stability here and after all these estimates are being brought to you by a blog post by who someone who's really a staunch Enthusiast of ethereum and they're clearly very well educated in ethereum well the writer of these estimates themselves calls themselves bullish in fact they say I remain as bullish as ever they do also say that quote a contentious and panicked unlock event with large profit taking could however be market destabilizing and a relatively long-lasting event they're in effect warning you of the danger to come now even though they are bullish because they see ethereum as a once in a generation investment opportunity the excess Supply that we could see through both partial withdrawals and full withdrawals could substantially destabilize the ethereum network if we don't have a clean bridge and a limitation on how much people can withdraw from the network some folks think that I'm just fighting that no worries there's plenty of volume to absorb all of the ethereum that's true but now and again that may be true I should say I shouldn't say that is true that may be true because now you have to consider the fact that macro is not your friend this merge should have happened during a bull run or at least wait for a bull market because here's what you're up against you're up against the NASDAQ that just barely went above a 23.6 retracement and is already falling below that support again you're in a very difficult macro Market why is that it's because the Federal Reserve rather than printing money and sending helicopter money to everybody so that way they could provide that volume for those sorts of lock ups that people believe are going to come or that lock up buying that's going to happen around lockup times well that is no longer happening why because if it's instead of printing and giving away money with the Federal Reserve and our in our fiscal uh systems Congress the president whatever and stimulus well we're actually going to see is we're seeing a Federal Reserve vacuum taking money and liquidity out of the system and unfortunately if you need buyers during a liquidity crunch when people don't have a lot of money unfortunately you're going to probably see prices decline even more now I'm going to link Down Below in the description the video that I originally made on the ethereum merge to warn about this potential happening and that is what could happen after the merge now why are prices going down now and why is ethereum falling more than Bitcoin well I believe bitcoin's roughly 12 decline is roughly what you would expect for the macro contraction that we're seeing in stocks as well however the additional eight or so percent you're seeing with ethereum in my opinion is a combination of by the rumor sell the news the event happened we were there for the event we had our party now we're selling and we're moving on to another by the rumor sell the news event but you are also pricing in the fact that there's probably going to be a post merge sell down uh during a time of a lack of liquidity now that's very unfortunate because I don't believe ethereum deserves that I think ethereum has probably one of the strongest systems for transactions at the lowest potential cost unfortunately if a macro and post merge liquidity are reasons one and two for pain the next reason is we have to remember that blockchain technology does not equal market capitalization value think about what I just said the technology of a proof of stake system is not equal to the value of all ethereum that's very very very important hey if you like the perspective that you've seen throughout this video so far at the end of the month and you can ge or stocks or being a real estate agent doing Property Management you name it link down below there's some amazing ways to build wealth and now is the best time to start learning to build your wealth so you can get started in my opinion the difference between these two things is blockchain technology is what we have it's the code it's what we can transact on it's really really good at being secure and for anybody across the world to be able to transact money but that system along with all the other things that we could do like nfts and all the derivatives that come off of this through other layers right but the difference is that is kind of like a business right if you were to value that technology you kind of value it like a business and if you value it like a business you look at and say okay what's the utility for this right and if you're comparing the utility of this you compare the utility of ethereum to other things like the existing banking system which many uh people in crypto absolutely do not like and that's fair but the point is it's going to have some form of value and you have to ask yourself is that Val that value for ethereum in the ethereum network worth 169 billion dollars okay there's a company called Invitation Homes they own like fifty thousand fifty to like 80 000 homes ethereum right now has a market cap that is in excess of eight times as expensive as Invitation Homes that would be like 400 000 homes right it's pretty remarkable so uh and I mean that's up to you to decide whether or not that is actually reasonable but then again that's not the only reason people buy ethereum it's not like you're only buying ethereum for the blockchain technology that could have a fundamental value that fundamental value could be two thousand dollars per ethereum it could be a thousand dollars it could be ten dollars right ten dollars we'd be sitting at about uh one one hundredth of the value of where we are now and we'd be looking at about a 1.6 billion dollar technology which is maybe the value of Redfin and Open Door combined kind of interesting when you put it into that perspective there's a lot of extra value put on top of this technology and unfortunately that extra value has a lot to do with speculation and it is that well crypto went up during a stimulative time hopefully when the Federal Reserve u-turns then crypto will also go up again and the day-to-day fluctuations of the stock and crypto Market will tell you that yes eventually crypto will go up again we just don't know if it'll go up from 1300 to 10 000 or if it'll go from 300 to 500.
all right we have no idea and I'm not making any kind of predictions but this is where a lot of folks have to remember that hey cryptocurrency was always thought of as an inflation hedge that is something that would become more valuable during a time of high inflation the problem is when you take away liquidity you depress speculative value and so what we've seen is stock market values come down now we're seeing real estate values come down crypto currency prices come down speculative valuations are coming down somewhat back to reality because liquidity money in the system is being taken out and this is actually why cash right now in this kind of Market is a better hedge than any kind of investment against inflation because if you have cash that you need to buy assets real estate crypto stocks well the more prices go down the more valuable your cash becomes it's all dependent on what you're comparing the cash to if you're comparing the cash to grocery bills well then obviously your cash is becoming less valuable so now of course we we know that there are other issues going on in the cryptocurrency space as well like the fourth issue which is regulation we talked about the stablecoin disaster I've been warning about the stablecoin disaster for years at this point but more importantly we've got to realize that the SEC is honing in on things like tornado cash which I've also talked about before and honing in on other aspects of crypto that mean the next Bull cycle could be faced with a lot more regulation now hopefully that's a good thing because then we can finally remove that as an element of fear uncertainty and doubt anyway these are my thoughts in terms of what the heck is going on with crypto if you've liked this content make sure to subscribe to the channel check out the links that I referenced down below and folks we'll see in the next one goodbye
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