저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
연준의 경제전망요약(SEP)이 2022년 금리 전망에서 크게 빗나갔다(연말 기준금리 0.9%→실제 2.5%→예상 3.5~4%). 연준이 인플레 억제 과정의 고통과 실업률 상승을 과소평가하고 있어, 금리 정점은 4~5% 이상, 경기침체(이익 침체) 위험이 크다고 주장. 주식보다 부동산 자산효과가 더 중요하며 본인은 부동산 대부분을 매도해 현금 확보 중.
다듬은 글
the most critical documents from the Federal Reserve which will dictate what markets do for the next three months are about to be released but in order to actually realize the magnitude of what we're about to get you've got to go back just a little bit and when I show you this you're going to laugh or at least you should maybe you'll even cry hey everyone meet Kevin here this folks is known as a summary of economic projections it looks fancy and complicated but let me show you how simple and wrong this particular document was this document released December 15th this by the way was when the Federal Reserve u-turned this was what I called the most disastrous fed meeting ever in fact if you type into YouTube meet Kevin worst fed report you'll actually see me react to the minutes of that meeting but don't worry that meeting May they have been a very critical and disastrous meeting but take a look at what you're going to laugh at here the Federal Reserve at the end of 2021 told us that they expected that by the end of 2022 the Federal Reserves interest rate level would be the following highlighted in green on screen here yes I kid you not the Federal Reserve thought that by the end of 2022 the FED funds rate which I joking called the F rate would be 0.9 percent folks currently at the time of this recording it is 2.5 we're not at the end of 2022 by the end of 2022 it is expected to be 3.5 to 4 instead of two and a half percent off only by a magnitude of three to four x that's pretty embarrassing not only did we horribly miss the 2022 projection but we basically doubled the projection for 2024 when the FED said we might go to 2.1 percent now this is really really important because we're about to get one of these again and what I want you to know is the fed's probably going to be wrong again everything's going to take longer and be more painful than expected now we're going to talk about the June report then we're going to talk about expectations for the report that's coming out Wednesday that's right in two days we're going to get a new report that is going to uh probably lie to us for the next three months but it's going to be a really critical Baseline now keep in mind it is very very difficult to know exactly how long this pain is going to last we just know we have to go through the pain and have to go through the mud I've said I believe that 2022 is going to be a very painful year and I really don't expect that to end until we really meaningfully see inflation drop which might not happen until later this year or even next year so buckle up the pain is real but at least within pain come opportunities like your opportunity to get into real estate investing or getting deals and stuff docs that could survive about exactly what I'm doing with my portfolio my trades when I'm buying real estate where I'm thinking about buying the fundamental analysis that I do consider checking out thf you've got a coupon code expiring for those programs at the end of the month all right let's get into the June report this is the June report folks in the June report the Federal Reserve suggested that by the end of 2022 we would be at 3.4 percent we're going to exceed that at least this one's not off by such an order of magnitude but we're very likely going to exceed that now what's crazy though is the Fed actually included a U-turn in their path here in 2024 they suggested that rates would go down to 3.4 percent and that they would Peak right here in 2023.
that's the suggestion and this gave markets a reason for optimism that okay the tightening cycle would be temporary will tighten into 2023 and then will U-turn and that's exactly what markets priced in is we would hit some form of a peak and then we would U-turn now presently that Peak is believed to be about four percent to 4.5 percent however some folks are now estimating that the peak could be as high as five percent and they're going to be some really critical pieces of data that we're going to get in two days and here's what you want to be prepared for the FED funds rate range this item right here gives you the range of How High Market participants of How High Federal Reserve board members think the Federal Reserve might have to hike rates the higher the upper end of this range the more fear and drama we're likely to experience in the market we also want to take a look at what the expectation obviously ends up being for the median approach the survey uh the average survey of all of the board members are we going to end up seeing something like the following end of 2022 4.2 percent wouldn't surprise me end of 2023 wouldn't surprise me to see something that matches the prior year I think the FED wants to get rid of this impression that oh yeah we're definitely going to lower rates in 2023 but we're going to raise them now and stay higher for longer it's even possible we could get like a shock approach and see something like a 4.6 a 4.6 and then to send the signal that we're going to stay higher for longer something like 4.5 right like some really subtle minor U-turn now these are the averages that we'll get from the board members so they'd really have to conspire to together to vote in such a way to bring the numbers in like this but it wouldn't surprise me because right now markets are so enthusiastic about this U-turn right here and and that makes folks excited that oh the FED paint's only temporary but as we've seen from the December numbers and these June numbers the FED is probably likely continuing to underestimate the actual pain that we're seeing now hopefully not hopefully inflation plummets off a cliff but between now and when inflation actually starts plummeting just give me some pain another thing is that somehow the Federal Reserve thought that they could Stamp Out the inflation in the markets without a meaningful rise in unemployment take a look at this in 2022 they thought we would end with 3.7 percent in unemployment that might end up being true but they thought that unemployment would only go up to about 3.9 or 4.1 percent of the longer run we might actually see some substantial revisions here to something where maybe the unemployment rate actually goes up to five percent and maybe even six percent in the longer term now this is going to be a very politically charged hot button here because this or these sorts of numbers will be the first time that we have a sep right before an election during the Biden Administration keep in mind we will not get another summary of economic projections until the election happens midterm elections that means whatever this document says for the unemployment rate is going to have political implications at least in my expectation now we've been talking about this idea of a paper recession since January and one of the unfortunate things that comes out of a paper recession is additional fear when people have more fear they generally constrain their own spending now we're really getting mixed reads on this now so we're not crystal clear as to what our individual consumers will be doing in response to this recessionary environment that we're in but I'll tell you something that's really incredible it used to be that as recently as a month ago when I would run into people they'd say oh back in the recession I did you know whatever something happened oh yeah back when we were on lockdown in the recession I did this now I'm catching people literally do one of these they're like oh yeah back in the recession oh I mean uh back uh during the lockdowns think about what the implication of that is what they're saying is oh I used to define the covet lockdowns as coinciding with a recession but now we're over coveted lockdowns and we're having another recession so being able to use the the timing of the word recession ain't any good anymore because that could refer to two different recent time frames uh yeah in these discussions context tells us that they're generally not talking about 2008 uh but but it's really remarkable because we're starting to say that and as that spreads it becomes ubiquitous to Consumers there is entirely the potential for True fear to still come to markets as we enter an earnings recession and this is where I say it's time to Bunker down and make sure that you are allocated to what are potentially going to be your most earnings recession-proof stocks one of the favorites that I have obviously is a Tesla now I will expect to be selling some Tesla in order to fund house hack this is in the solicitation go to houssac.com to learn more about that but but that is that is for a startup and that is separate and I think we've still got a couple quarters uh of earnings to go before we really get to sort of peak Tesla uh pricing which in my opinion would be a very insulative stock but I could be entirely wrong the point though is that we'll be entering this earnings recession under the weight of the Federal Reserve hopefully finally being a little bit more honest with us are they going to tell us a realistic path of this federal funds rate and how high is that going to go is there going to be someone that suggests raising the FED funds rate to six percent or five and a half percent and what kind of response is the market going to have to that I'll tell you it's not gonna be good in addition to that how high do they actually think inflation is going to go they've been wrong every single time they've done one of these before they saw they thought so far that inflation would go down to four or five point two percent by the end of 2022.
I don't know I mean I suppose it could still happen but uh we'll see so far the unemployment rate has not ticked up so they've been accurate on this but with that technical recession these GDP numbers look awfully generous so what happens next well what happens next is we get the new version of this summary of economic projections Wednesday when the Federal Reserve has their fomc meeting what you're going to want to do is come to the channel at 11 A.M Pacific Time on Wednesday the 21st which is when we will be receiving this document along with the federal reserve's rate hike decision the Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise rates by 0.75 that would bring us to a low end of 3.25 however we have fears being priced into the market that the FED is going to give us 100 basis point hikes now if we do get a 75 I do think that there could be a 10 temporary rally in the market because usually when the FED chooses the lower end the market tends to Rally a little bit go now well it's just not that bad until of course the Federal Reserve comes out and says oh no it is that bad and we need to talk down the markets and talk down the wealth effect I think the biggest driver of the wealth effect and this is potentially why we have an 81 chance of a 75 basis point hike right now versus a 19 chance of a 100 basis point or a full percentage Point hike I think the biggest driver of the wealth effect will not end up being stocks it will end up being real estate there's a reason I sold all of my real estate in q1 and Q2 of this year well I should say all of it but 85 percent of it nearly all it's a lot but I want to clarify that it's about 85 of my real estate to prepare for what I think are going to be the most remarkable opportunities to build wealth and real estate in 2023 2024 even 2025 and that's why we're building house hack and we invite you to join especially if you're an accredited investor if you are not accredited stay tuned for probably January to March anyway thank you so much for watching make sure to go to metcaven.com join to take advantage of the expiring coupon code prices will be going up again thanks bye
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