저자: Kevin · 외국인
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경기침체 시 소비 둔화로 기업 이익이 줄어드는 '이익 침체' 우려를 제기하지만, 테슬라는 PEG 비율(2022 1.41, 2023 1.0)상 성장 대비 합리적 밸류에이션이고 수요 잔고가 약 3개월분 있어 이익 침체를 피할 것이라고 주장. 중국 가격 인하·재고 리스크를 언급하며 자신은 테슬라에 크게 투자 중이라고 밝힘. 다만 수요 둔화 리스크를 인정하고 개인 조언이 아니라고 단서를 달았다.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me Kevin here we got to talk about Tesla why because well we have serious fears in fears Insurance in the market that we have two major phases of Market contraction phase number one is when we just see prices collapse because price to earnings ratios are collapsing and that's okay that's something healthy that happens but phase two of a recession could be an earnings recession and this is when we actually see consumer demand hurt to the point where people are spending less money on goods and services as a result companies show lower top line revenue and lower net revenue a simple example that I regularly like to use of course this video is going to be about Tesla but a simple example that I regularly like to use is if you look at the last of Nike earnings you see that we had tremendous growth during the pandemic and not a surprise people buying shoes working out from home whatever getting workout clothing you name it but what do we have in the last earnings report we have a year-over-year comparison of Revenue that is down one percent and net earnings that's down five percent compared to last year now if you have that for two quarters or more in a row you tend to be in an earnings recession and that oftentimes comes with big old analyst downgrades and as EPS goes down at the same time as multiples went down in the first part of the market crash well what ends up happening you end up getting low you end up getting lower growth expectations and lower premiums for stocks which in English stocks go down it's not great in a recession stocks suffer a lot now there are however some companies that potentially could survive an earnings recession and one of those companies in my opinion is Tesla and I'm going to explain briefly why I have that thesis in this video along with some new information on Tesla but at first I want to talk to you about this valuation argument because every time I bring up Tesla as an investment people say oh my gosh how could you invest in Tesla it's so overvalued and then I like to ask oh you know would you invest in Apple or would you invest in Microsoft right now no it's pretty big names and most people who think that Tesla is overvalued onto me and say yeah I mean apple and Microsoft are great companies so one of my favorite metrics is the PEG ratio and this is a ratio of how much money you're paying for growth this is really important because rather than just looking at the share price of let's say a thousand dollar stock divided by their earnings of say twenty dollars then you get a price to earnings ratio of 50.
we're now going to take that 50 and actually compare it to the growth and if earnings let's say earnings are a dollar are going to a dollar and fifty year over year that's a 50 growth rate divide that 50pe by the growth rate what do you have you have a peg of one when we do this math with Tesla we actually get a 2022 PEG ratio of 1.41 and a 2023 ratio of one anything under two generally means you're getting a decent deal for growth anything under one is just absolutely phenomenal or at one is is even more phenomenal now if you look at Apple you have a pig ratio of 3.8 and if you look at Microsoft you're over two so when you look at a PEG ratio where you're actually taking the price to earnings ratio and you're dividing that by the growth of earnings you actually have an extremely in my opinion well-valued company of course it creates risk factors the biggest risk factor is what if that growth slows down growth slows down then obviously the PEG ratio goes up and that's one of the big themes is what if growth slows down and that's something that we got to talk about because things are changing in China delivery weights are now down to one week in China this is happening at the same time as Tesla Giga Shanghai is expanding substantially in fact we're now expecting 100 000 cars to be delivered out of Giga Shanghai this is actually incredible because we've generally been delivering around 70 000 vehicles per quarter and now I'm sorry per month okay this is a per month figure we're gonna go from in the 70 000 per month to a hundred thousand vehicles per month this is phenomenal but because of the pain the Chinese consumers experiencing in China Chinese consumers still saving substantially more remember back in January we were saying wow the Chinese consumer is saving four times as much money as they were last January and we know the Chinese are very very smart people especially when it comes to savings and cash what did you end up with well basically now a pretty bad uh recession if not depression in China I don't I don't really believe that their GDP is actually still going to be 3.5 this year I think that's nonsense I think they're negative but we'll never hear that uh but anyway so obviously we've got lockdowns in consumer fear in China but the big issue that we have with Tesla is what if Tesla manufactures more vehicles but then doesn't have more buyers and China is about to be our first test of that because as we're expanding and we're seeing wait times go down which unfortunately is something we saw happen at Peloton right wait times came down then prices came down and then all of a sudden the stock fell 90 right that's scary if your demand evaporates you're screwed now do we think that potentially could happen with Tesla well of course of course that could potentially happen with Tesla in fact Tesla is reportedly giving Insurance subsidies to get people to buy Teslas in China of course they've got other competition like byd and Neo over in China but most of in my opinion the reason why we're seeing lower wait times in China is both a combination of the fact that we're producing way more cars but also because well China's uh having a little bit of a depression okay all right that's just between you and me all right I don't want the CCP coming after me but anyway the good news is the United States economy could potentially desire to absorb those chinese-made Vehicles now a lot of chinese-made vehicles used to be exported to Germany but now we've got Berlin ramping up and maybe we don't necessarily need as many of those Vehicles going over to Europe because we've got Giga Berlin to provide local production the big issue in my opinion will be is if Chinese vehicles or chinese-made Teslas are sitting around waiting for buyers that's going to lead to price drops and we already know that China's production is the highest margin but let's ship these cars instead of maybe to Europe or locally within China get them to the United States and bring those wait times down as we go through this recession we expect both margin to go down and the amount of outstanding buyers available in the buyer pool to go down we do hope that as wait times start approaching maybe one to two weeks we hope that more buyers start coming to Tesla which may not happen right that's a risk factor but we hope that more buyers come to Tesla because a lot of people when they want to buy a car they don't want to wait three months or six months in fact if you look at wait times in America right now if you want the long range model 3 it's not even available for sale because the wait times are so long that they have canceled people's ability to actually pre-order that vehicle in America not only that but the model 3 currently has a delivery expected time frame of October to December that's at least four weeks but potentially months the model Y which in my opinion is the best value for a Tesla has a delivery process or time frame of December to April and again I think that's the best of value car now you're still going to have people though that say you know what look I just don't want to buy a car during a recession personally I think that's smart I mean when I talk to people daily when we do our uh linked down below by the way there's a coupon code C that expires soon this month so make sure you get that before prices go up but when we're in these fundamental live streams people ask me like hey should I be buying a car right now and I hate to say it but no you shouldn't be buying a car in this market right uh no I don't think I can single-handedly you know hurt Tesla's Market here obviously I'm really heavily invested in Tesla and while I am becoming a licensed financial advisor I'm not your financial advisor so I can't give you personal advice I can't tell you what to do but look I'm heavy on Tesla because I think that we are going to have continued survival in earnings and continued demand I'm starting with the risk factor because if the if the demand wanes we're going to see earnings go down and Tesla will end up just like Nike with negative growth and if we end up having negative growth that PEG ratio goes out the window and instead you have a company that actually is overvalued so what are the odds of that well in my opinion fortunately very very low and they're very simple reasons for that first shout out to Troy test like on Twitter for providing us some expectations he's usually pretty dang accurate with his expectations uh we believe that in quarter three Tesla will deliver 369 000 units that is higher than the 310 000 units we had in January and it's certainly higher than that summer slowdown we had of 254 000 when Shanghai was locked down that is growth folks that's really really good growth in fact that is about a 20 delivery growth in a quarter that is third quarter compared to first quarter but we expect to go all the way to 461 000 Vehicles by Q4 that's a hundred fifty thousand Vehicles more that's 50 more than in q1 it's not even a year-over-year comparison it's like a three-quarter comparison which is really really incredible so fun nominal growth rate on the actual deliveries we've got to keep those earnings High though when that unfortunately filters through margins fortunately though Elon has been suggesting that we're starting to see commodity prices which is obvious I mean we know iron and copper and a lot of these commodity prices are plummeting we know that because we can just look at them uh but he's even been mentioning this on Twitter so we could even see price drops at Tesla to re-motivate demand which would be very good while still maintaining margins so there's definitely a buffer there sort of somewhat of a margin of safety uh but we are this is a little bit of a downside for the first time uh in in really certainly in the last two years uh which in my opinion really means ever we are seeing Tesla's order backlog start to decline now this is expected in a recession remember what I've always said I've always said that in a recession you would expect a man to just plummet like 30 for Teslas but if outstanding demand is 35 you could lose 30 percent still maximize your production and still grow earnings even through a recession and unfortunately I just don't think there are many companies that you can invest in during this particular recession we are going through where you're actually going to see earnings keep going up up and up in fact the housing market is already turning we know that we talk about that i but not only is that already turning we are seeing home good retailers like Furniture retailers and Appliance retailers according to the Wall Street Journal this morning start laying people off because they see demand slowing because of slowing housing sales this is exactly what you would expect but a house market is slowing down it's why I'm launching the startup house hack which where you can go to househype.com to learn more about investing with me at house hack and I'm working on the non-accredited version so if you're not accredited don't worry I'm still thinking of you well also later today be doing a live stream for house hack that'll be at 4 pm so stay tuned for that uh but we are at about 102 days of production that's about three months a little more than three months I really believe and that backlog will grow obviously as wait time shrink I believe as long as we can keep an order back it doesn't have to be a big bag or order backlog as long as we can maintain well as for at least the next year I think Tesla is not going to end up being in an earnings recession like most companies and people are actually going to end up looking at Tesla as a safety play because they're going to look and go dang Apple's in an earnings recession Nike's in a Rings or session what the heck Tesla one of the largest market cap companies in the market could end up actually looking at like a safety play Imagine That going from thinking that Tesla might be overvalued to a value play well maybe I shouldn't say value but I should say safer play hashtag no guarantees because don't sue me bro thanks for watching check out the coupon for building your wealth down below and househack.com thanks so much bye
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