저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
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TSMC 2분기 실적 콜 기반 분석. 2분기 매출총이익률은 환율 불리 및 해외 팹(일본 구마모토, 미국 애리조나) 희석 영향으로 58.6%로 소폭 하락. 3분기 가이던스는 56.5%로 추가 하락(약 210bp). 해외 생산 확대로 향후 5년간 연 2~4% 마진 희석이 예상되며 장기 매출총이익률은 약 53.5% 수준으로 전망. 다만 AI 칩 수요와 가동률 상승이 일부 상쇄. 고객사(애플, 엔비디아)의 공급망 리스크 분산 요구에 따른 비용 증가를 감수한다는 해석.
다듬은 글
We got some massive news on Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing company as the company reported their quarterly financial results and revealed critical insights into several of their major strategic shifts including their manufacturing diversification outside of Taiwan. So these all have big implications for stock market investors overall, not just Taiwan semiconductor stock investors, but overall stock market investors because artificial intelligence is the trend that's creating some of the biggest increases in shareholder wealth.
An is the biggest manufacturer of artificial intelligence chips. It's one of the main suppliers of Nvidia and AMD which are fueling this growth in artificial intelligence. So this is something that not just TSM investors need to know about but also overall all stock market investors can gain critical insights from the messages that the management team says in this video.
their second quarter gross profit margin decreased slightly to 58.6%. Now the reason for this is an unfavorable foreign exchange rate and margin dilution from overseas fabrication facilities partially offset by higher than expected overall capacity utilization and cost improvements efforts. So let me break that down what it means.
First of all, the unf unfavorable foreign exchange rate. There's been huge fluctuations in foreign exchange as a result of the geopolitical tensions that rose from President Donald Trump's tariffs on the United States trading partners. that caused a lot of chaos in foreign exchange markets, a a lot of chaos in intercountry trade uh trade barriers etc.
and one of the companies that was negatively impacted was Taiwan Semiconductor. Additionally, they have undertaken a strategy to diversify outside of Taiwan and that strategy and they knew this was going to happen, but it was going to increase their cost and so their profit margins were going to decrease.
That's why they haven't diversified up until this point for the main reason is because they're able to produce in their home country at the lowest cost available. And so for them to diversify outside of that would mean an increase in cost, but they're okay with that because they're decreasing their risk.
So they're okay with experiencing slightly lower margins if it comes with lower risk and also that's what their customers asked for. Companies like Nvidia and Apple really pushed for this so that they have a lower supply chain risk as well. So that's the give and take of why their gross profit margin declined in the most recent quarter.
Those were the declines. And then what helped the company is a higher capacity utilization. Meaning that if they could produce 100 widgets per hour, they got closer to the maximum amount they can produce. And as you get closer to the maximum amount you can produce, as you get closer to 100% utilization, no company gets very close to that, like 90% would be really, really good, right?
No company gets close to 100%. At least none that I've seen. As you approach those levels, those higher levels, your profit margins increase because you're already paying for all of the fixed cost of your manufacturing facility. And so when you produce more, you're generating a lower cost per unit because your cost, your fixed cost is spread out across more units.
So that's what is benefiting the company right now as their customers are ordering as much as possible from Taiwan Semiconductor and they expect more of the same their third quarter gross profit margin will likely decrease by another 210 basis points to 56 and a half, primarily due to the continued unfavorable foreign exchange rate and an even more pronounced dilution from overseas fabrication as they ramp up further in Kumamoto and Arizona.
And so they continue to forecast the gross profit margin dilution from the ramp up of their overseas fabrication facilities to extend for another 5 years starting from 2025 to be between 2 to 3% every year in the early stages and to widen to 3 to 4% in the later stages. So these diversifications of their manufacturing is going to have a meaningful negative impact on the company's gross profit margins.
They were generating gross profit margins closer closer to 60%. But they're now forecasting gross profit margins in the longer term closer to 53 53 1.5% the management team said at least. So that's the low point. They're forecasting 56 and a half percent in this upcoming quarter and continued declines in their margins all the way down to about 53 and a half% in the longer term and then perhaps rising from that point onward.
So these diversifications of their manufacturing facilities are not coming for free. They're impacting the company's profit margins negatively, but they're okay with that. They're still doing it because it's lowering the risk and their customers are kind of demanding it and their customers have uh strong negotiating power against Taiwan Semiconductor because uh two of the largest customers, Apple and Nvidia, they have pretty large clout in what they can ask of Taiwan Semiconductor.
Uh there has been significant investment in the semiconductor manufacturing industry. Most notably, Intel has expanded its manufacturing capabilities. Samsung is expanding its manufacturing capabilities and Nvidia and Apple can always change their products and components to diversify away from Taiwan Semiconductor if they don't like how this manufacturing company is responding to the needs of Apple and Nvidia because they're so large because they command so much negotiating power.
they can you know ask Taiwan Semiconductor to do certain things and most likely Taiwan Semiconductor will respond and acquies to the requests of these companies. Not too much though because Taiwan semiconductor is growing to become a powerhouse of its own and the shift in overall industry where so many companies have just become design companies and they outsource manufacturing has given TSM a lot of power in the industry.
But if Taiwan Semiconductor were to try and like exercise some of its power against some of its rivals, that would start an industry trend away from that, you know, separation of design and manufacturing. If design companies start to notice that Taiwan semiconductors gaining too much power and exercising that power against them, they'll start to take steps to mitigate that risk.
They'll start to take steps to bring some of that manufacturing inhouse. And they're always always evaluating new suppliers and substitute suppliers, substitute manufacturers, just in case one supplier or one manufacturer starts to take too much negotiating power into its own hands. By the way, this document that I'm reading from is Taiwan Semiconductor second quarter fiscal year 2025 conference call transcript.
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