저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
TSMC 2분기 실적은 매출 전분기 대비 11.3% 증가(달러 기준 17.8%), HPC(AI 데이터센터) 부문 비중 60%로 강세. 매출총이익률은 58.6%로 하락 전망이며 해외 공장 확대에 따른 구조적 마진 하락이 예상됨. 2025년 설비투자 약 400억 달러 유지. 선행 PER 24배, 자체 DCF 적정가 154달러 대비 현재가 239달러로 고평가 판단하여 매수에서 보유로 하향.
다듬은 글
Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing company recently reported quarterly financial results and held a conference call with Wall Street analyst. The company's management team revealed critical insights into what's going on with Taiwan Semiconductor stock. I'm going to reveal those insights in this video here and answer whether or not I think this semiconductor company is a buy a, Taiwan Semiconductor reported second quarter revenue which increased by 11.3% from the previous quarter as their business was supported by strong demand for 3 nanometer and 5 nanometer technologies.
In the semiconductor world, the lower number means a more advanced technology and the company has invested in developing even smaller nanometer technologies which are expected to come out either later this year or early next year. When measuring in dollar terms, revenue increased by 17.8% from the previous quarter as fluctuations in exchange rates had major impacts on the company's revenues and gross profit margins.
The company exceeded their second quarter guidance and they've been outperforming expectations for a couple of years now as the boom in artificial intelligence continues to drive demand for Taiwan semiconductors capabilities. Of course, uh, one of its one of its more popular customers right now is Nvidia and of course Apple has been a longtime customer for Taiwan Semiconductor.
As these companies perform well, they order more products from Taiwan Semiconductor and that fuels revenue for the company. Gross profit margin decreased by 0.2 percentage points sequentially to 58.6%. The company is forecasting continued declines in its gross profit margin. It's uh down to 58.6% 6% and management is forecasting that this number will continue declining over the next few years as they diversify their manufacturing base.
The company is primarily based in Taiwan, but it's investing aggressively to diversify outside of Taiwan. It recently built and expanded on its uh fabrication facility in Arizona. It's expanding in Japan and in parts of Europe. uh one of the main reasons why investors are concerned about Taiwan semiconductor stock is because of its uh position inside Taiwan and the geopolitical tensions between Taiwan and China and now more recently the increase in tariffs that the United States is implementing on all of its trading partners not just China.
Still, despite those headwinds, the company's operating margin increased by 1.1 percentage points to 49.6%. This company is one of the most profitable companies in the world. It's definitely one of the most profitable manufacturing companies in the world. In fact, I can't think of any other manufacturing company, not just semiconductor, but any manufacturing company that generates anywhere near the levels of profit margins that Taiwan Semiconductor generates.
It's undoubtedly one of the best-in-class performers in manufacturing worldwide. The company also said that their three nanometer process contributed 24% of wafer revenue in the second quarter while five and 7 nanometer accounted for 36% and 14% respectfully. Overall, advanced technologies accounted for 74% of its wafer revenue.
More importantly, HPC segment, which stands for high performance computing, which is what the company labels the products it sells for the data centers that are optimized for artificial intelligence. These are the products for companies like Nvidia and AMD. That segment increased by 14% from the previous quarter.
It now accounts for 60% of their second quarter revenue. I wouldn't be surprised if this segment continues to become an everinccreasing percentage of their overall revenue as the rest of their business is growing only incrementally whereas the high performance computing segment is set to increase significantly.
By the way, this document that I'm reading is the company's second quarter 2025 earnings call transcript. And this highlighted document is available for all my channel members to view. And you can join my channel for less than $5 a month. There's a link in the description if you want to learn more. Smartphone revenue increased by 7% to account for 27% of overall.
Internet of Things increased by 14% to account for five. Automotive were flat at 5%. Now I expect going forward the automotive segment could be the next catalyst in the semiconductor manufacturing industry. Uh as these businesses, as car manufacturers are trying to implement driverless car technology, they will need more and more semiconductor chips embedded in these vehicles to be able to perform the very complex and very compute inensive calculations needed to navigate the roads with intains a very strong balance sheet as is needed in this industry because it's a very capital intensive industry.
Uh the company is planning to spend roughly $40 billion on capital expenditures this year alone. And so they ended the second quarter with cash and equivalence close to $90 billion. On the liability side, their liabilities decreased as they maintained a great balance. So otaled $9.6 billion in US terms.
Annualized that would be close to $40 billion. Now looking ahead, the company is forecasting thirdarter revenue to represent an 8% sequential increase or a 38% year-over-year increase for the company. Based on the current exchange rate, which is $1 to29 Taiwanese dollars, they expect that gross profit margin to come in at 56 1.5% at the midpoint.
Now, remember the management team has talked about longer term their profit margins, their gross profit margins will continue declining as they continue diversifying their manufacturing supply chain outside of their core Taiwan manufacturing facilities. These other newer manufacturing facilities are higher cost and so they will generate lower margins going forward.
Still the operating margin is expected to come in at 46.5% and they expect to maintain their capital budget between 38 and 42 billion or $40 billion at the midpoint for 2025. A lot of Wall Street analysts were surprised to see the company maintain their capital expenditure budget for the rest of this year.
They thought that because of the geopolitical headwinds and the increase in tariffs, most notably that TSM would pull back their spending on capex to account for slower economic growth as a result of the increasing trade barriers. But the company didn't do that. The company didn't do that. They reiterated that the tailwinds in the artificial intelligence industry is creating such demand for their services that they need to invest to prepare to be ready to fulfill those orders and their conversations with customers.
Their customers are of course you know some of the bigger ones are Apple and Nvidia and AMD. They didn't indicate any slowdown or any cancellations of orders. And so because of those conversations that TSM had with their customers, they felt confident in investing in the development of the future of their company.
So now let's talk about whether or not this stock is a buy. It's trading at a forward price to earnings of 24, near the highest it's been all year long. And when I look at calculated is $154 and the current market price is $239. So, I had Taiwan Semiconductor stock rated as a buy and I last updated that recommendation on April 21st, 2025.
Now, given this new higher valuation and the increase in geopolitical headwinds and the tariffs, I'm downgrading this stock to a hold and I'm updating that recommendation here July 21st, 2025. I think this is one of the best companies in the world. But at the current valuations with the increase in risks, I think there's going to be a better entry point.
I think there's uh better opportunities available for investors and so I'm downgrading this stock to a hop.
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