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we got the hottest ipo in the history of forever and these are the images that google wants to show me come on i need something as hot as this ipo okay okay yeah that's what i like now this is hot enough to melt any snowflake who's that diddy in the background he knows it with his little side eye are you feeling hot and bothered over this snowflake ipo as well cloud infrastructure is that what does it for you well that's interesting because clearly everyone else feels the same way so in this video we're going to talk about the snowflake ipo and what buffett has got to do with it the supposed non-technology investor getting all up in all these technology companies nowadays we're going to talk about what's going on and how to play it and don't forget if you want more details about how we invest in the market myself and most of our fallable members check out this free training we're up almost 55 this year the strategy is doing great barely takes us any time it's very easy very effective that's how investing should be but definitely check that out it'll make what we're talking about in this video make more sense too so as you already know snowflake was supposed to have an ipo at 120 and they opened up around 245 on the actual ipo day so already 100 increase on the day of the open like i said investors were hot and bothered they still are and what's really getting them going why snowflake is so popular is because they're a cloud infrastructure company which is kind of funny because you normally see this type of crazy action around something more popular or something more you know simple to understand not just database cloud software so snowflake does something similar to oracle but it's easier because they can scale up or down and have variable pricing and really it's the main pure play company on cloud computing in the market everything else google amazon even oracle they're involved in so many different things but snowflake is all about the cloud but okay maybe the cloud isn't what got everyone excited but what did get everybody crazy is that buffett was getting into this thing he had 250 million dollars worth of snowflake at the ipo price and then got another 4 million shares at the debut price so he made more than 800 million in one day on this investment and buffett is not an ipo guy at all the last time he invested in ipo was for ford ford motor company back in 1956 that's a long time ago but this probably isn't a buffett play this is more of a todd combs and ted weschler and those are the two guys that will take over berkshire eventually supposedly maybe and i think they're also the guys behind all these tech stocks that buffett has been investing into because you know berkshire has made a ton of money on apple this year as well apple is what 40 percent of their portfolio or something which is interesting for a non-tech investor like buffett but buffett is really against this whole ipo buying thing he said in 54 years i don't think berkshire has ever bought a new issue and this is when he was talking about the uber ipo and he talks about more he says the idea of saying the best place in the world i could put my money is something where all the selling incentives are there commissions are higher and animal spirits are rising that that's going to be better than the thousand other things i could buy where there is no similar enthusiasm well that just doesn't make any sense and what he's talking about here is the hype because that's what all these ipo players are a bunch of hype in his 2012 annual shareholder meeting he talked about how he tries to stay away from public market newcomers he went and said i mean the idea that somebody is bringing something to market today a seller who has choice of when to come to market and that that security where there's going to be a lot of hoopla connected with it is going to be the single cheapest thing to buy out of thousands and thousands and thousands of businesses in the world is nonsense in 2016 he compared it to buying lottery tickets you don't have to really worry about what's really going on in ipos people win lotteries every day so there's a few things that buffett is talking about the first is that these ipo plays are all based off emotion and hype there's no real edge there for your normal retail investor even for buffett and he's a guy with his strategy that is really focused on fundamentals right value he throws out everything that has a bunch of hype which is why he wasn't a big tech investor ever in the whole dot-com bubble he completely avoided it because he had that same mentality he's like i don't see the value here i see a lot of hype i'm not into it and that goes back to his second point about all this is that he sticks to his strategy because he's saying why would this ipo be the cheapest thing in the market when they get to price it themselves and then you have all this hype that throws the price even higher which is exactly what happened with snowflake when in the market there's thousands of other opportunities that you can look for that are going to be mispriced versus this ipo that just got started on the market and i completely agree with that because every time one of these ipos come everybody is getting so excited and they're just throwing any strategy or caution to the wind they just want to jump in which is exactly what's happening here with snowflake and regardless of whatever way you look at it there's a very small chance that you actually have a real edge so if you're a fundamental investor and you like to look through a company's financials before you're investing well how are you going to do that when this company has been non-public for so long sure with the ipo they release documents they release their numbers but you're not going to know more than the insiders who actually bought the shares on the primary market you're still on the secondary market you're not buying directly from snowflake snowflake is selling to all these banks and other primary buyers and then they put it on the market where retail traders can get it and those primary guys know a lot more so how are you competing your best bet if you think snowflake is a good company is wait for a few porters get some good information get their reporting but okay maybe a few people are cloud database experts because maybe they work at places like oracle and they know what's going on and they want to jump into the ipo okay maybe but most people like the people you see on tick tock who have been talking about snowflake non-stop what are they buying into the hype but okay maybe you're more of a technical trader and you want to do some technical analysis well what technical analysis are you gonna do on these two bars right here nothing there's nothing you can do even william o'neill the market wizard who started investors business daily and wrote the book how to make money in stocks for ipos he still waits for some type of base to form on the technical side you need to see how the price action actually works so you can see what the market thinks about this particular stock you don't have anything to go on when it's this early so we could go back to the facebook ipo how would you have played this well as you can see on this weekly chart it got hit hard but we know facebook became a killer stock right but where would you enter well there's a few places after this many weeks you have some consolidation you have entry points so one entry point could have been right here another one could have been after this mess and this huge breakout here and you got a real ugly cup with handle here now this is like a year into the thing it's still a fresh stock it's not exactly a pure ipo play on the first day that it becomes available but it's a new stock and it's okay if you're getting in a year later even these are much better entries and just look what happened after this one stock went ballistic in o'neill's normal strategy which by the way is a growth stock strategy that he focuses on he waits for companies to have multiple years of great revenue and great earnings and even after waiting that long he still catches the biggest winners like the googles and the amazons because before stocks go on their massive massive runs they usually have years of that growth in their data that you can see so it's not some big secret so he waits for the fundamentals to line up with the earnings and the revenue and then he also waits for a proper base in the technical chart you put those things together you can make a lot of money that's not to say you can't get in earlier on something like snowflake but at least eight weeks that's how long you want to wait to see kind of what the market is thinking about this stock yeah i know i had an amazing first day but is down 11 right now on the second day here which is not surprising and i wouldn't call that a terrible signal either but honestly at this point i don't know what you would think about this because you need that time and this is really a problem in investing that everyone has because it's just the way our media is built everyone is so focused on the next hottest stock on the next shiny object they could jump into because it's exciting and it's new and the other big emotion behind it is the fear of missing out if everybody's jumping in and snowflake even warren buffett how am i gonna miss out on that opportunity i can't i gotta buy in too and that's why when we talk about markets and all our market reviews we aren't talking about fundamentals as much as we talking about sentiment and emotions because that's what drives prices it's all people in this game and it's all psychology at the end of the day and that fomo is one of the biggest emotions that drives everyone see your neighbor getting in and you're like i gotta get in too i'm not gonna let him make more money than me and that emotionally driven investing is not real investing because you get screwed down the line where the guy with the process who's actually focused on making money not getting distracted by his emotions he's gonna take your money it's the blind leading the blind with this ipo style emotional investing and it's why 99 of people in the market are losing money see if we're even talking about stock picks right not just snowflake but any hot stock picking the stock is only 10 of the process the other 90 is how you actually manage that position so how many shares are you buying how much are you investing when do you sell when do you take profits how are you managing that position once you're in it risk management becomes a very big thing in fact it's the number one thing and that's what the best investors are always focused on risk management how do i make sure that i don't blow out of this market they could care less about what the new hottest ipo or stock is they don't even look at their returns day to day the only thing they're focused on is their process how do i keep hitting these reps how do i keep executing so that over the long term i'll get the returns that i want and that's the key you gotta have an investment strategy and a process and it is exactly what buffett was talking about just now he never cared about ipos because it didn't fit into his value process now with this whole snowflake thing i mean there's a change of guard happening right it doesn't seem like buffett headed this whole thing and i'm not saying the snowflake was a bad investment for berkshire but it's not a standard buffett investment and those guys they're playing at a way different game than the rest of us because of the position that they're in just like when good old grandpa buffett can sweep in in a crisis and buy up a bunch of shares of banks really cheaply but what he said about ipo still stands for the rest of us just focus on your process don't worry about what's shiny over here and over here so in the investment strategy that we use that i talk about in this training which comments we would have never gotten into snowflake and we didn't it's not even on our radar so you can see right here we have a list of stocks and they're ranked by which stocks have the highest momentum and the thing that tells us that is the tsi and that's a trend strength scanner so you can see right here tesla is number one zoom is number two and what this does is it ranks all the stocks on the nasdaq and tells us which ones have the highest momentum and what we do with our strategy is that every month we're rotating into the five stocks with the highest momentum so the idea there is that we're always in the stocks that are moving highest the fastest but more importantly we have very strict rules of exactly what we're gonna do we only rotate once a month meaning we only get into new positions once a month we have specific targets where if a stock hits a certain level we'll sell some and take some profits we have stops where if a stock drops a certain amount we get out of it we have all these rigid rules in place so that we follow them consistently and we don't stray from it which is why like i could care less about the snowflake ipo because it doesn't fall into my universe i stick to what i'm good at or i wouldn't even say good at it's just what's within my scope of view stay in my lane that doesn't mean snowflake wouldn't be a great investment but if it doesn't fall into my strategy then it's not a great investment for me because i don't have any rules or process around how i would play that ipo which is what a lot of people are missing right buying stocks without any idea of when to sell it or what to do when certain things happen no plan no strategy and like i said we focus on our strategy and consistently execute and that's why we're up over 50 this year so far and that's why since 2008 we're up over 2 000 versus the nasdaq itself only up 545 you can see the difference between these two lines this is our strategy the blue line this is the nasdaq and the only way you get that long-term success and wealth and compounding is doing that exact thing focusing on your strategy not getting distracted not feeling the fomo when people are all hyped up about the latest ipo or whatever and my preference with the strategy and there's a lot of different strategies that work but obviously the one i'm using is my preference i like quant strategies because i'm getting a simple number right here that tells me what to do so i don't have to do technical analysis on a chart i don't have to comb through financials for fundamental analysis it's all broken down into this simple number it's what i love about quant and for me i really like it because then i don't have to spend a bunch of time doing research which i don't have time for this strategy literally takes me less than 15 minutes a month to execute with great returns as you've seen and it lets me detach from the market like i get alert straight to my phone when i actually need to buy or sell because it's all pre-planned ahead of time so only time i actually have to jump into the market is when i got to do something rest of the time i could stay away and that's important because then i don't feel this fomo that everyone else is feeling i'm not getting all hyped up about snowflake because i can go focus on something else like my business my job whatever it is the more you stare at the market the more you get sucked in into making a stupid decision read about snowflake all day guess what you're way more likely to buy it so that's why i like to detach if it's not relevant to me i don't want to see it because to be a good investor i don't want to be in the market for hype and excitement i'm just here to make money and the rest of the time i'm out it's not a game to me i know a lot of people treat it like it is one but anyway if you want to learn more about the strategy that i'm talking about and how we do it definitely check out the training comments it'll teach you everything you need to know to do the same thing we do if you liked this video make sure you subscribe because we got more coming do that and i'll see you in the next video stay fowable out there bye you
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