저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프가 파월 후임 연준의장을 9~10월 내 발표할 수 있다는 보도로 달러가 약세를 보였고, 이는 조기 금리인하 기대를 키운다. 9월 금리인하 기대는 약 88%로 급등. 파월 신뢰도 훼손 시 장기금리 하락 가능성이 있으며, 실업수당 청구와 WARN 통지 증가로 노동시장 둔화 신호가 나타난다. 연방준비제도 내 Daly 등은 관세 인플레 영향이 제한적이라 본다. 진행자는 관세 영향 소비 둔화를 디플레·고용 문제로 보고, 채권과 모기지 관련주에 관심을 보이나 투자 권유는 아니라고 부인.
다듬은 글
about dollar falls on report of Trump to name a Fed replacement early. And I like how they have a photo of JPAL looking at his watch because his time's almost up. Except honestly, it kind of looks like clickbait because it I feel like the the head of his watch is actually under his sleeve. So, I think they they caught him a little early there.
He's got to pull that back. But anyway, a report that President Trump may announce a replacement Fed chair by September or October pushed down the US dollar as investors saw it as a sign that early rate cuts will become more likely. Right? So, basically, there's this idea that Jerome Powell may get uh some form of early replacement announcement, and this early replacement announcement will end up being something that undermines Jerome Powell's credibility, right?
Uh so, undermining Jerome Jerome Powell's credibility is basically anytime Jerome Powell says something like, "Yeah, we're going to wait." If Donald Trump announces a new Fed chair for next May, people are immediately going to interview that new Fed person and Trump's going to be like, "Go on every interview you can get." And so, you know, JPAL might be like, "Yeah, we're going to wait." And then they'll throw on Fox News this replacement announced May 2026 chairperson and be like, "Hey, well, what do you think?" and he's going to be like, "Well, I'd be cutting right now, so we're just going to have to stack up more rates for when I take over and I can work with a bed with a with with the Fed uh, you know, board and and convince them that what they should be doing is cutting right now." And so what you'll do is you'll actually undermine Jerome Powell's patience and you'll lead the Treasury market to advance its rate cuts.
The problem is if you start combining this earlier rate cut regime from a new Fed chair, what you do is you actually lower uh the yields on the bond market as the market tries to start pre-pricing those future rate cuts. I mean, September rate cut expectations just shot up to 88%. We've almost fully priced in September rate cuts now.
you know, we were closer to 67 69% just about four days ago. Maybe closer to a week ago. It's already Thursday. But anyway, what's remarkable here is that if that occurs, then there's the idea that what you do is you stimulate the economy by bringing rates down, mortgage rates come down, potentially, you know, smaller uh small businesses have easier access to capital, lower interest rate expenses, more consumer spending, more earnings per share for companies.
And the idea is that it should be positive to stocks uh and that you could actually start pricing in that positiveness before Jerome Powell even gets replaced. That's a great idea, but the problem with that is does it potentially undo Jerome Powell's concerns? See, yesterday on Fox News, people who never study the Federal Reserve were like, "Oh, well, I mean, if if inflation ends up being a problem, they could just raise rates again." And this is where you're like, "Okay, even my seven-year-old child knows that that would just repeat what we did in the 1970s." This, by the way, shout out to Max.
Max drew this to for me. Look at that. I'm a daddy. Uh anyway, so if you repeat what you do in the 1970s where you just react to every, you know, bit of data that comes out, you end up creating this Arthur Burns sort of scenario where the Fed has no credibility. It reacts halfaphazardly to everything.
Markets can't predict what the Fed's going to do, and you actually end up causing more damage, but potentially unleashing the very inflation that Jerome Powell is trying to prevent. Uh, and then you end up needing a Paul Vulkar in 2030 or whatever, and you get another double dip recession because you repeat the problems of the 1970s, which would be very bad because you have to crush the back of inflation.
That's just looking at history. That's what JPAL's worried about. Now, is it also possible that we just don't get inflation? Of course, because it's also possible that this is a bigger problem that's on screen. This idea that inflation is definitely going to occur, I think, is is somewhat broken mostly.
Like, example, I was talking to Jack yesterday, my nine-year-old. I'm like, "Bro, you know, one of the reasons you're seeing if you go to uh Segue, I I sorry, I love this brand. It's a Chinese brand, but we've got a lot of tariffs on on, you know, Chinese products right now. And what we've noticed is when you jump on over to the Segway website, we've actually seen a lot of their prices recently come down uh on on a lot of their products.
So, uh a lot of these have come down, you know, two 300 bucks, 400 bucks. And we find that really interesting because not only do we love the products and the brand and the hashtag notsponsored, but we're finding they're cheaper scooters are all on sale lower than where they were before the um uh the tariff disaster.
Now, why would that be? Well, it's probably because a lot of these companies, like this is one we were looking at. We were actually looking at it when it was $1,500 and we're like, uh, now it's $1199. So, why are your prices going down? Well, it's because these manufacturers, yeah, somebody's got to eat the tariffs, but what's happening is consumers are willing to pay less right now.
There's less pricing power amongst products. Uh, and so one of the reasons could be because of this. Look at this. This is the unemployment claims prone to start rising again. This morning, unemployment claims were a little lower than expected. Continuing claims were a little higher than expected. GDP for Q1 was worse than expected.
Nobody cares. That's all like that. None of that. None of that was really shocking data. Inventories a little higher than expected on wholesales. Retail inventories were a little higher expect than expected as well. A sign that people, you know, stocked up more and people bought less. Fine. But what's happening is demand is falling, right?
That's why inventories are higher. That's why GDP is lower. Now, why is demand falling? Because people are starting to wake up to the realization that their job may not be as secure as they think. And look what's happening right now. This just came out this morning. Warn notices are starting to spike again.
Warn notices, the blue line over here, uh it generally leads a rise in unemployment claims. You can see that best over here in 22 where warn notices started jumping. And look at that lag. It was like a threemon maybe I'd say about three to four month delay over here uh in in in the rise of the 3-month moving average which makes sense because it's a moving average of unemployment claims relative to uh war notices.
So anyway, I wrote, you know, is this a one-time tariff related issue uh or is this the start of a new trend? Right? Did we get warn notices because of what happened in April? Or is this the start of a larger new trend? This is a problem. But this increase in warn notices at the same time as the market is at all-time highs sends you sort of a contradictory signal.
The market's very happy. The market's not concerned about the fact that we have zero deals with any deficit nation. That Donald Trump has not pulled off any negotiation with any deficit country. That Japan has walked away from negotiations. that yes, we have guard rails for a deal with China, but we haven't actually accomplished a deal.
Uh, and you know, when when we get contradictory information that suggests Trump isn't doing well, we don't know what to believe because I mean, look at what happened with Iran. We obliterated the facilities. Of course, you're going to say that because you're Trump, you know, and then we get a contradictory report.
Well, that report's fake news, but it came from the Pentagon. No, it came from a leaker in the Pentagon. It's fake news. There was a lowlevel leaker, low IQ leaker and a scam. And so like that's the kind of the same stuff that we get with our trade negotiations. The trade negotiations are going great.
Never better really. Where are the deals? Two weeks, bro. Two weeks. You know, so like at some point we we might we we are acrewing debt is kind of what we're doing. We're like a forget the budget deficit like the the fiscal debt. We are acrewing momentum debt, right? We're we're acrewing hope debt.
This right here on the NASDAQ is hope that Donald Trump is right about everything. But what happens if we're wrong about what we were able to accomplish in Iran? What happens if we were wrong on trade deals and tariff negotiations? You know, Europe's talking retalatory tariffs again. What happens if we're wrong about the, you know, uh, Iranian desire to produce a bomb, that we didn't obliterate their nuclear program, that they actually have enough enriched uranium, and that now they're not cooperating with the IEA, uh, preventing our, you know, weapons inspections of their products, uh, and, you know, tracking of their highlyenriched uranium, which is hard to track when they've got, you know, hundreds of decoys.
uh you know what do you do uh to to pay that debt? Well, what happens is you end up with a poopy dupy in the market. Now, how deep is that going to be? Nobody knows. But it's worth paying attention to these warn notices because these warn notices together with this report on potentially announcing an early replacement to Powell should actually be really good for the bond market.
Now, don't get me wrong, I maybe I'm biased here, okay? Maybe we're just shilling the bond market because the bond market has done absolutely horribly uh since they cut 100 basis points. So, you know, take it with a grain of salt. But bond yields, if JPAL's successor gets announced early, we start pricing in more cuts.
At the same time we're pricing in more cuts, we get an unemployment problem that starts, you know, sending red flags like warn notices popping up. Yields are going to plummet. If yields plummet, you're actually in a great place to start thinking about. I'm not saying do it, you know, not financial advice, okay?
Not personal financial advice, but it does become very interesting to start thinking about bonds, mortgage companies, uh, you know, like think like a rocket mortgage, buying Mr. Cooper, buying Red Fin, getting exposure to those higher yield mortgages, but also mortgage servicing rights, which during refinances are obviously going to get replaced.
But because a company like Rocket Mortgage has these servicing rights, you would expect a lot of the refinances to just go right through Rocket. Uh that's why a lot of these companies like mortgage servicing rights. Not always, uh, you know, 100% true. uh because some people will go to their their you know local lenders or their loan officers that they have a relationship with.
But that said, you know, the MSRS could just end up right back at um uh at Rocket Mortgage. So, who knows? You know, the last time some of the unemployment numbers started freaking out was right here. This was the last time we had the unemployment scare and you can see what happened. The 10-year Treasury collapsed to 3.6.
But then on Trumpopium on on unemployment, you know, yields skyrocketed to 4.77%. Is insane. Now we're starting to look at, okay, is the debt going to come due again? And it's interesting because it combines with this talk about, you know, Trump lashing out at Powell, calls him Mr. Too late. Uh, you've got dollar weakens as Trump eyes Powell successor.
What do we got here? We've got dollar fell. Treasuries rallied after a report that Trump is considering naming Federal Reserve chair uh Chair Powell's successor well before Powell's incumbent term is expected to end in May. Uh speaking about something ending, uh the coupon code JPOW is going to end soon at mekevin.com.
We have the lifetime option out again. You know, sometimes we've actually gotten quite a few emails from people who are like, "Hey, you know, I got the monthly subscription. I've been loving it, but I'd actually prefer to have the lifetime option because, you know, I've got course members from 2017 that are still coming to the live streams that paid in 2017 and they haven't paid another dollar since then.
It's kind of crazy. Anyway, Wall Street Journal, see that at mekevin.com. Wall Street Journal said Trump may reveal his pick to run the Fed by September October. Might even be sooner, honestly. Uh, the report follows weeks of lobbying by the president for Powell to lower borrowing costs. Investors and analysts reckon Powell's replacement will most likely share the president's dovish bias, prompting speculation that interest rates could eventually fall faster and deeper than markets are currently pricing.
Totally reasonable. Mind you, it is probably the right thing. So, like even though I understand Powell's concerns, I personally don't think we're going to have an inflation problem. I actually think we're going to have a deflation problem and a jobs problem. I think AI is going to make unemployment never okay for like the next 50 years get as low as the 3% we saw postco it's not good you right anyway uh Marie Daly from the Fed's talking right now says muted tariff impact may open the door to a cut in fall daily said she sees increasing evidence that tariffs may not lead to sustained inflation Mary Daly of Fed just now that's actually big, right?
I mean, this is this is the they're all applying for Jerome Powell's job. Let's be clear about that. But, uh, seeing increasing evidence that tariffs may not lead to a large or sustained inflation surge, uh, may open the door to cuts in fall. Uh, labor market is slowing. Okay. Interesting. So, we know these things.
We see the warnings. We see the lack of demand at companies and if you're paying attention, you really don't see inflation showing up in consumer prices even though JP's worried about it. He's right to be worried about it because of the 1970s. But Trump's also right in this that we should be cutting.
So it's it's interesting like only when you look at the granular nature of it do you understand why Powell's doing what he's doing. There's increasing risk that Powell will become a lame duck in his final months. And with it, the risk that earlier interest rate cuts will come. A lame duck, Powell. Potential contenders, Kevin W, Chris Waller, Kevin Hasset, even Scott Bessant.
Traders have been adding to bets of US cuts. The chance of a quarter point cut in the next meeting rose from 0 to 20% and now we're at like 87% or something for uh cuts in September. 88 somewhere around there. Wages and lower rates are also weighing on the dollar, right? Because as rates come down, the desire to buy US treasuries potentially goes down.
Uh and um uh and and and then you have less buying pressure on on treasuries because yields are lower. So therefore, you need to buy less or fewer dollars rather. And let's see here. Let's see. We've got Fed officials including Ghoulspeed, Barkin, Dailyaly, Hammock, and Bar are also set to speak soon.
That's fine. Dy's talking right now. Powell reiterated his me message that officials do not need to rush. Trump's behavior in terms of appointments to the Fed has been reasonably orthodox. Okay, Trump shill. Uh, let's see. This suggests Washington is seeking to assert more control over monetary policy.
I mean, Trump is to some extent a populist, right? Like lower rates are popular. You could sell that as like, oh, it's good for our debt. But, uh, it's also very popular because if Trump can cheer, look, I got rates from 4 and a.5% down to zero. Even if we go through a recession to make pull that off, he's going to he's going to cheer it and I wouldn't blame him for it.
I would cheer too if I were in his shoes, right? So, you know, remember, my goal is to poop on everyone because I don't want any friends. So hopefully that that uh explains my political bias is I hate everyone. Uh okay, that gives us a little bit of an update on Alfredo. .
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