저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인은 약 50% 조정 중이나 과거 사이클(-75%, -95%)보다 얕고 바닥 근처일 수 있음. 10/10 플래시크래시는 과도한 레버리지가 원인이며 바이낸스 소프트웨어 결함이 청산을 악화. 비트코인은 금과 상관관계가 낮아 기관의 4년 사이클 학습 후 관망 중. 금은 M2 대비 역사적 고점에 근접해 고점일 가능성, 달러는 미국 자산 선호 확대로 오를 수 있음. 전쟁·하락·정치 변화는 공포가 아니라 비트코인 분할매수 기회로 봐야 한다는 주장.
다듬은 글
There is a lot to worry about. Wars and even turmoil in the US along political lines recently. And yet we have this wall of worry. The market clock climbing this wall of worry and broadening out. We do think that there's going to be a breakaway. I feel we're pretty close to the bottom. This market analysis delivers a powerful and timely warning from Cathie Wood, who has just shared her latest insights on the current state of the broader financial markets, especially Bitcoin and gold.
Her perspective is incredibly important right now, as she outlines what could happen next amid major economic shifts, rising global tensions, ongoing wars, and significant political changes shaping investor behavior. With uncertainty increasing and volatility returning, her outlook may help investors better understand where capital could flow next and how to position themselves wisely in this rapidly changing environment.
In terms of where we are in the cycle, well, because we didn't have the kind of soaring upcycle after the halving, uh we did not expect this much of a correction. It's still not as bad. It's about a 50% correction. It's still not as bad as we have seen in the past, uh which was in the beginning down 95% and I think the last cycle was down 75%.
So maybe we've bottomed. I don't know. That's uh it's uncanny this 4-year cycle, but how much of this has been caused by the flash crash on October 10th, uh which um many people have have um wondered if I've been saying this correctly. Uh we had the flash crash. Uh Binance didn't cause it at all. Uh there was excessive leverage, but Binance exacerbated what happened in terms of the deleveraging because of a software glitch that it had.
Uh and caused a lot of auto deleveraging. Uh so, I think that unnerved uh many people and they're waiting to see still if there is a whale out there who's going to be forced to sell Bitcoin because he or she is so underwater and uh receiving margin calls from prime brokers. We heard recently that uh that is indeed what has happened.
Uh it that was a rumor, and if that is what has happened, uh then I feel we're pretty close to the bottom. But, you don't know if that rumored whale uh did go down because of its whale, we should know about it, right? The green light that regulators gave Bitcoin and the ETFs here in the United States, yes, was the beginning of institutional investment, but as institutions started learning more about Bitcoin, they learned about this 4-year cycle.
And so, my guess is there are a lot of institutions that have held back and are saying, "Uh let me see. Let me wait until the the dust settles and around this 4-year cycle, and I'll pick my spots." Uh but, they know they have a fiduciary responsibility. Advisors do, asset allocators do, because Bitcoin is not correlated to any other asset class.
Well, it's interesting. Bitcoin, if you look um if you if you look since uh uh late 2019 to today, the correlation between gold and Bitcoin has been 0.14. Hardly any correlation whatsoever. But if you zoom out a bit, uh you can see the last two cycles were led by gold, uh not by Bitcoin. So, we shall see.
One of the most fascinating charts I've seen recently is um the market cap of gold to M2. Now, we we use US M2 because we can get those data back into the early 1900s. Um so, if you look at that chart, gold hit an all-time high 2 weeks ago relative to M2. There have been only two times that we're even close to it.
One was at the end of the '70s, early '80s, when inflation here in the United States was raging at a double-digit rate. And so, that was understandable, but that was the peak. And then gold went down for 20 years. The price went down for 20 years. And then the other peak was I believe it was 1934, the Great Depression.
And what was happening then was a deflationary bust. Money supply was collapsing. So, the denominator pushed it up dramatically cuz the gold the gold price was fixed back then. Uh so, that was a deflationary bust and which defined the Great Depression. We're not anywhere near that. So, that's how extreme gold has become.
And so, I would say, if I were a betting person, and I am, uh uh as an investor, we have to It's not These are not uh bets without uh without being backed up by research, but I would say the gold price has peaked. If if there something goes wrong in Iran, I I could be very wrong. But absent that, I really do think the gold price has peaked.
But do you see there a debasement trade, right? Against fiat currencies or not? If we're right on what's going to happen here, that debasement trade is is going to be wrong because the dollar is going to go up, perhaps more dramatically than anyone expects. And all other things equal, that alone would drive the gold price down.
And I think this end of US exceptionalism concept being fed by the dollar's recent decline misses this point that all of the policy actions in the last year are so positive for United States assets that I think the head fake is going to be the dollar going up as more foreign direct investment heads here and as more capital after this rotation comes back.
Cathie Wood went on to explain that ongoing wars, falling prices, and major political shifts should be viewed as significant opportunities to accumulate more Bitcoin. Not as reasons to panic. These difficult periods never last forever. Throughout history, there has always been some kind of crisis, if not war, then terrorism, financial instability, or global uncertainty that temporarily pushes markets lower.
As disciplined and forward-thinking Bitcoin investors, we should treat these phases as opportunities to dollar cost average and strategically increase our exposure. While we can't control geopolitical events or sudden market reactions, we can control how we respond. Maintaining strong conviction during volatility is what separates emotional investors from successful ones.
Those who stay patient and consistent during uncertainty are often the ones who position themselves for substantial long-term gains and generational wealth creation.
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