저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라의 비트코인 투자(15억달러, 현금의 약 7.5%)는 기관 수요를 자극해 BTC가 추가 상승할 수 있고, 회계기준(무기한 무형자산 손상처리)상 BTC 하락 시 테슬라 순이익이 크게 줄어 주가 조정 요인이 될 수 있다. 반대로 BTC 상승분은 이익으로 잡히지 않아 하락 시 저가 매수 기회가 생길 수 있다는 주장. 검색량 분석(Ark Invest 인용)은 2021년 BTC 상승이 기관 주도였다고 해석. 비트코인 변동성과 파산 위험은 구분해야 한다고 주장.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone, it's me, Kevin. In this video, I want to share with you a secret that no one talks about regarding Bitcoin. This is the secret reason that I think is the perfect reason why Tesla is investing in Bitcoin and it could be a huge catalyst in the future. So, you should know about this and I am going to explain it in detail.
But first, let me get the basics straight. We already know that Tesla has about $19 billion in cash. We know that they took 1.5 billion of them and invested them in cryptocurrency, specifically Bitcoin. That's about 7.5% of their cash that went into Bitcoin. We already know that this will probably make other Fortune 500 companies say, “Let’s get into Bitcoin too.” This might make other hedge fund managers say, "[ __ ], for us to keep doing this, we need to get into Bitcoin." Because the reality is that if hedge fund managers don't follow trends, they get calls like, "Hey, hedge fund manager, why didn't you buy the stock on Etsy when Kevin told you to buy it for $79?" Yo, why did n't you buy the stock on Redfin for $10 when Kevin told you to?
What about EXPI? Kevin just told you to buy the stock at $42, and you didn't . And you did n't do that when you said, "Dude, they're $80 and the hedge funds are about to scream about this as soon as this gets through the media." It's like it's going to explode. It will happen. And what did you do? You didn't buy it.
I'm taking my money." This is a disadvantage that hedge funds face, right? Hedge funds face this disadvantage where people essentially say, “ Yo, you’re a bad investor. I'm taking my money from you and giving it to someone else." So, obviously, companies want to have access to Bitcoin. Here are the main things we know.
We know this. This makes perfect sense. But there are some things that don't quite make sense that I want to talk about a little more. And the first thing from Arc Invest. And the second thing is the big secret associated with Bitcoin. Okay, first, let's talk about ARK Invest. So, this was prepared and sent by Yasin, a cryptocurrency analyst.
A truly brilliant mind when it comes to cryptocurrencies. If you have anyone who has access to this person , please, please, please, put them on my podcast so we can talk about cryptocurrency and dig deeper into it, okay? And I'm not talking about something like: Well , maybe I do. Maybe I'm talking about something like rust.
We're going to go deep. Oh man, the rust. Okay, we'll dig deeper. Uh, this is a post from Yasin this morning. And he remembers: “Hey, there’s an interesting pattern here. In 2018, or should I say late 2017, searches for Bitcoin skyrocketed. But that search didn't actually lead here. Because hedge funds don't have one hedge fund looking for Bitcoin that could represent, you know, billions of dollars, whereas one retail investor looking for Bitcoin could represent $10,000.
Obviously, there is potential that the higher the search trends, the more retail investors are looking for a particular stock or cryptocurrency. This is a very weak connection, but it is what Ark is making, and I am inclined to agree with him. They are essentially arguing that it is entirely possible that this larger and more sustained Bitcoin growth that we have had over the last year, where the cryptocurrency, you know, Bitcoin, went from 10k to 44k, was largely driven by institutional investors.
Actually, that's the conclusion they're drawing here. The different search dynamics suggest that institutions may be a driving force influencing this.” Bitcoin. And then they draw the opposite conclusion for Ethereum, suggesting that retail investors are potentially now the driving force behind the Ethereum boom.
This is an interesting change in trend. And that suggests that if Elon joins this Bitcoin bandwagon, it's entirely possible that these institutions could spark another Bitcoin rally even with a slight increase in search trends, because that's exactly what happened here. Sure, we had a surge in search trends, but nothing like 2017 .
And again , Ark concludes that this is because institutions are more interested in Bitcoin. That doesn't mean retail investors aren't interested, it just means less, right? The ratio was distorted. So this is really interesting. I like this and you can also draw your own conclusions about this regarding Ethereum vs Bitcoin.
That's not the point of this video. The point of this video regarding Tesla is simply to say: if Elon creates another one of these institutions, there is no reason why Bitcoin can't go back up from 10,000 to...44. So maybe, you know, it's 4 times again. I...I do n't know. Maybe it will double again?
Can we get to $105,000? That's a little over my goal, 105 plus. Let's see how high it can go. Eh, but this is useful information. This is part one. Now let's talk about part two, which is a little more about Tesla's secret. So, we have this conclusion regarding search trends. Now the secret of Tesla.
Good. So, Tesla's secret is related to some specific terms that no one really understands in the SEC report that Tesla prepared. Here they are. The terminology here says that these assets will be considered intangible assets with an indefinite useful life. Good. So, before I heard that, I had absolutely no idea what it meant.
That's it. Digital assets are considered intangible assets with an unlimited lifespan. So I did a little searching and found something really interesting. I found it right here. It's right here. states that when you consider or understand an asset with an indefinite life, you need to make what is called an impairment.
And that's when you file your quarterly or annual reports, you need to do this thing called depreciation. So, let's explain what this means. We'll keep it simple because a lot of this looks like it's complicated for me, and if you're watching this, it'll be complicated too . So, we'll keep it simple.
I'm going to read this line here. The cost of depreciation should be included in expenses when the book value of a non-current asset such as Bitcoin, i.e. if the book value is, say, 1.5 billion, we will call it the book value. Okay, I understand. Therefore, the depreciation charge should be included in expenses when the book value of a non-current asset exceeds, that is, when it is more than the recoverable amount, which would be the current market value for which you could sell it.
In other words, if Bitcoin is sold and its price drops to, say, 1.2 billion, right? So, essentially, Tesla just lost $300 million in this example, right? In other words, if Tesla loses money on Bitcoin, they will have to write off those losses as expenses, even if they are just holding them. So it's kind of like how you look at your Robinhood: "I got $1.5 worth of Bitcoin on Robinhood ." “And it just went down to 1.2.
Well, you can write off that 300, that .300, on your taxes as a loss, that's what the corporations are saying here. Which in Tesla's case equals $300 million. Well, people, take a look at this. This is right here - Tesla's net income report . Let's take a look at those quarterly net revenues, okay? This gray line here.
Their most recent quarterly revenue was $369 million. In other words, if Bitcoin fell 20% based on what they bought it for, meaning no matter how much they paid for it , if it falls 20% of that in the same quarter, Tesla would have to recognize that as an expense. So we'll have a line here that says -300, uh, because of, you know, Bitcoin, right?
This means that Tesla's profits will literally go down the toilet, and it will look like they lost a lot of money. Even if their income might increase, say, next quarter, who knows? I mean, the next quarter, the first quarter, is usually very slow for Tesla. But anyway, let's say revenue grows to $400 million and then they lose $300 million in bitcoin, then it would look like they only made $100 million in net profit, which is less than the previous two quarters.
This could actually lead to a sell-off in Tesla shares just because of Bitcoin. Bitcoin alone, due to its volatility, could have a major impact on Tesla's stock price. But, wait a minute. I said that was great. Why is this great? Haha. Good. Well, when you show less income, you pay less tax. But here's what's interesting about Bitcoin.
When you have losses or the value of Bitcoin increases, you write it off. But when you have a profit, that is, if it increases, say, from $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion , then you do what is called an impairment reversal. So, if you have an impairment reversal, you're going to do the opposite. You're going to take that 300 million that you wrote off and show that 300 million as income again.
So, you can literally predict the time when , say, Bitcoin sells off by 20%. Tesla may have $400 million in revenue, but because they have, say, 20 % losses in Bitcoin, they can only show $100 million in revenue. What is happening? Tesla is having a big sell-off because the idiots on Wall Street don't understand what the hell is going on , and people are panicking and panicking because they don't understand the Bitcoin correction that's happening.
And suddenly you might have a really cool opportunity to buy Tesla at a lower price if Bitcoin is on sale, right? If then in the future, say in the second quarter, Bitcoin goes back to the amount they paid for it, then they, say, have $400 million in revenue again, they will recognize that $300 million as revenue again.
Boom, that makes them really, really profitable. Okay, now who knows? Maybe Wall Street will be smarter. It is enough to realize that we can take into account the fluctuations of Bitcoin, and it does not matter. But that's not always likely, because people think that if Bitcoin crashes, there will be enough people on Wall Street to say, " Yeah, I understand that you can just write off that $300 loss for Bitcoin, but you were all idiots who invested in Bitcoin.
It's your fault. I'm selling your shares, right?" I think it will happen. If Bitcoin falls 20%, it will hit Tesla's revenue very quickly. And I don't think all of Wall Street will be smart enough to make that adjustment. Then, if the value returns to the level it paid for, Tesla will add that money back.
But here's the catch, okay? That's the miracle. Remember, this was done assuming that the value of Bitcoin had fallen to, sorry, $1.2 billion. Let's assume the value goes back to $1.5 billion . Guess what will happen? This is cool. part. Guess what happens if that $1.5 billion investment doubles, okay?
Bitcoins will double compared to what they bought. They will turn into $3 billion. And that translates to $3 billion, let's say, in the fourth quarter. And Tesla has $400 million in revenue in the fourth quarter. How much do you think revenue will be added , since they just added essentially $1.5 billion in Bitcoin?
Well, you might think, “Oh my God, this is amazing. They added 1,500 million. That means their quarterly revenue was $1.9 billion , right? "" Wrong. This is a truly crazy, amazing, beautiful thing about what Elon Musk is doing. The correct answer is that when your Bitcoin is worth more than what you paid for it , according to the rules I'm reading from this, you know, lecture, you don't actually declare any additional income.
So you declare zero additional income. Instead, you simply label it in your assets and equity statement . That's all. Not in your income. So you only write it off as an expense when it's a loss, but when it's a profit compared to what you paid for it, you don't show it as income. In other words, the essence of this brilliant secret, in my opinion, is that Elon Musk is now effectively in a position where if Bitcoin falls, he can drive down the value of the shares, and if the people who get them can buy them, then you just have the opportunity to buy Tesla for less.
But that's only if Bitcoin crashes. If Bitcoin goes up, the rules don't say you have to recognize it as income, boom, you win. You To make money, you create your asset, not actually recognizing income until you sell the Bitcoin. When you sell Bitcoin, that's when it matters. And that's usually how it works for us in real life.
Well, okay, I bought, let's say, $10,000 worth of Bitcoin. If it grows to $15,000, I don't pay taxes until I sell it. Well, the same goes for Tesla, right? But with us, if our $10,000 in Bitcoins grows to $5,000 and we sell them, then we get a tax benefit. We receive this damage. But if we don't sell it, usually nothing happens.
Well, under these rules, with these accounting principles, Tesla actually recognizes this loss. So it's a little confusing, but when you put the pieces of the puzzle together, it's like, "Oh my God, this could actually affect the stock price." So if we see a Bitcoin crash, be prepared to see Tesla have a really interesting...quarter and/ or potential stock moves, which is a little scary because if you have outstanding margin and you're heavily exposed to Tesla, you could have some volatility.
Now I want to show you where it says you don't show income when it's growing. So, here's where it says: "When the impairment of an intangible asset is reversed , in other words, when its value increases again, when the value is restored, that's where the increase in value is recorded as a gain in the income statement and a decrease in accumulated blah blah blah blah." Okay, so you show it as a profit, that's what I showed you, that's showing it as a profit again, that makes sense.
Then it says: "To the amount of the impairment loss previously recorded." So you show that as income before what you wrote off as a loss, so you show that income again. But then understand this, okay? This is the main thing, friends. This is a big line. "The increase in value over the previous impairment loss is directly debited to the asset and credited to equity." In other words, if the value increases, you don't actually get any income.
Or you don't pay taxes on it. You don't recognize it as income. Now I want to be very clear . I'm not an accountant, okay? I'm a guy on YouTube trying to figure this out, and I found this brochure here, uh, which is really cool. She is from lumenlearning.com. Uh, anyway, you can probably google it. If you just google " indefinite impairment of life," it will come up.
But, uh, this to me is potentially a game changer for corporate earnings reports. And if you don't understand cryptocurrency well enough to make the proper adjustments, since Bitcoin is volatile, you will be very confused about the returns in the future. Also keep this in mind. I explain this almost every time I talk about Bitcoin because a lot of people, uh, well, let 's put it this way.
I still hear people say this, in my opinion, incorrectly, among the masses. People still call Bitcoin inherently risky because it is volatile. For me, these are two completely different things. You need to take it apart and separate it. Bitcoin's riskiness means that there is a possibility of its bankruptcy.
Bitcoin's volatility means that its price often fluctuates up and down. These are two completely different things. In my opinion, there is no risk of Bitcoin going bankrupt . I mean, there must be some fatal flaws in blockchain. And so far, when we have had problems with blockchain, blockchain has surprised us with its resilience.
So, aside from the fatal flaw in blockchain, I don't see any risk to blockchain. Will Bitcoin be volatile? That is, a 20% increase, a 20% decrease. I mean, just look at Dogecoin, okay? Yes, absolutely. Two completely different things. So, let me know what you think. If you are an accountant, I beg you, if I misunderstood something, please let me know.
If you have a different point of view, please let me know. I invite you to please beat me so I can better understand what's going on with these HE double hockey sticks. For now, I'm just going with what I googled. I hope you appreciate what you find here, and if so, consider sharing it, as it will have a significant impact on Tesla stock in the future.
Thank you very much for watching. Please consider subscribing. Be sure to join the course via the link below or any of the courses using the coupon code HODL, and see you next time, friends.
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