저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
부실/저평가 우량주(블루칩)의 턴어라운드 투자 원칙을 설명. 내재가치 파악, 문제의 원인이 내부(경영)인지 외부(업황)인지 구분, 관찰목록(watchlist) 구성 후 매수 트리거 대기. PSU 은행 사례처럼 가치 이동 후 회복 가능성 강조. 블루칩은 0원이 되기 어렵다는 논리로 분할·장기 인내 강조. 가치함정 회피법은 자막상 명확히 다뤄지지 않음.
다듬은 글
A. External to the company. Now, as an example, I am saying, and you have taken a very beautiful example of value, in which you have taken the example of PNB, that value outflows. PNB may not have done much wrong itself, but today, let's say, RBI gave license to the private sector, so look, in the private sector, many people got license, 10 people all went bankrupt, only HDFC and Kotak, I think only two emerged as strongmen, but those strongmen were so big that they could cover 20% of the market from 15% to 15%, so value migration happened where your opinion from PSU, good clients, good businesses, everyone migrated to the private sector in 15-25 years and actually a time had come in 141 when the industry profit was 110% in the private sector, we mean zero profit from the public sector, you know, even SBI came to literally zero profit, so that was the point.
Of time, maximum pressure is in PS banks because PSU banks also you cannot wash it away because they are % of the system you know, so the thing to understand is that brother, SBI is also a very deep blue chip in 50, which is 150 or 850 and it is still cheap, single digit, it is still cheap, it is still cheap, this is the thing that brother, when you get this type of bank like SBI, then it means that for 150 it is such that you can fill your house, you are absolutely CG Power was an example in corporate governance, I mean, whenever there was talk about FI holding, such a strong FI holding, a company from a good group, is representing such a space, the brand name was so strong, at that time its name used to be less grave, when such a big corporate governance issue happened here and when that stock fell from 800 to ₹, yes, and after that Murugappa Group bought it but that is the biggest change, yes, from a discredited management to a completely blue chip management.
Yes, and see, actually two things happened, one, Murug Group came, Lion etc. came and they set the process right, they started looking at all the stakeholders, whether it is the employees first then other stakeholders like buyers and all of them, and they did not reduce the value of shareholders to zero, yes, which happens in many cases, yes, it happens, but it did not happen in this case, but they went first and had a very good experience of turning around, so they started looking at the companies, all the stakeholders and they built relationships, and as soon as they started tightening, the tailwind just exploded post- Covid.
What happened was the capex boom that came, where your transformers were not selling or you did not have orders or no one was lifting them, so as soon as you started the turnaround and If a tail wind comes, then there will be a turnaround plus it is the combination of exactly that. My next question is healing because if there is a bruise, then healing is necessary after that, right?
So what does healing create and how to estimate that this bruise which is a blue chip is now ready for healing. That is very active investor role comes. Look at yours, from where it fell by 6, right? I mean, understand that it is on the watch list right now. Now, to understand this, brother, what is the source of the problem here?
If the source of the problem is external, then it will be repaired externally only. If it is internal, then it will be repaired internally. So, suppose my management is bad, my MD inside is bad, or some how the leadership is not content, then the leadership has to change. Okay, okay, so the moment leadership changes by that time, so much pessimism accumulates.
Nobody brothers, like nobody knows what the new power was. When the biggest Apple Lion came, then it means it was really Huge change but how did many people take 15 out of 5, it became 15 out of 5 but then it went straight from 15 to 700, then the same thing means it is still counting, so what I told you that its all time high must have been, let's say ₹, let's say it became ₹, then 10 out of 200 happened, but after 200 the company became worth 700, 800 lakhs, literally nothing, so this power of turnaround, so not only the turnaround will happen but it will prosper, that is the call of the investor, so in this you have written process for investors, in that the first one is creative watch list, yes after that you have mentioned two more thought process in it, let's talk a little on this, yes so first create a watchlist for reason, then healing trigger await for buying triggers, yes buying trigger don't be in hurry just because 50 is not like that, after that you see Start by figuring out what the source is.
Try to understand the company deeply. The better you understand the company, the better you will understand its value. The first thing you need to do is figure out the intrinsic value. Even after falling to 50%, the company is below the intrinsic value. Now the price is below the intrinsic value. So, you start by understanding the intrinsic value and then try to figure out what the source of the problem is.
And it is the pressure created by the company. Like, if the guy says no, he wants 50%. What is his market? You have to give up his first position. So, it's not that every time it is happening with Aion Paints and Builders. Exactly, after so long, P has shown growth. So, what is it that is getting bruised and again, corporate warfare is there.
The issue is whether builders will win, you know, and how much turf will they take at 5% or 10%, and how much blood bath will happen to get to 10%. So, you are watching all these things sitting outside. You are not in the stock, but at some point in time, you feel that neither the paint is going to go anywhere nor the players are going to grow, so keep this in your shortlist for now.
So, it is a challenger and will become the incumbent tomorrow. So, what is good for Asian Paint today? What is good for Asian Paint probably is not good for builders. But at some point in time, the moment it is 57, then they will say, what is good for you is good for me. Like what happened in telecom, yes, now both are partying and it is happening in food delivery, for example, both will sit and party.
So, when the challenger becomes incumbent, the industry starts recovering, that too only to make money. So, how do you catch that bottom point of maximum price and how much do you get? It is a matter of luck as to what price you get. If the market turns bad, you get it at a low price. Yes, so you know, with these types of blue chips, you can change your entire career.
Absolutely, then after spotting. Spotting it properly then it is also a question of how much you allocate and for how long you will sit, how much patience will you have to bring in it, it is a job that requires unlimited patience, secondly how much capital will you invest in it, Ramdev sir, how much capital will you invest in it, then in such a situation, look I am not a practitioner of this, I have just written the story, Rakesh was just a practitioner, yes, well he used to invest, he was the king of it, that Amit Goyal will also be there, he will tell all the stories, but just before his death, he bought crore shares in Indian Hotel in 70, 8, 90, he must still have 800, now yes and what is this name, he bought Lako for less than 100, well he had said that many times, yes, but he bought Escorts just like that, yes, he bought Escorts at 10, yes, he had got to buy percentage of a cup, I know, yes, it was only at 10, I remember when I started my career, as soon as I came, I saw News on the first day I had read Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's buy 5 per in Paraj, then at that time I had said that 5 per means what happens in just one day, if you have 50000 crores, all these companies are available at throwaway prices, so putting 500000 crores is easy, but I am worth, let's say 100 crores, then how much can I put, but even in 100, if you put 10, 15, 20 crores in this high-convey stock because your downside is, the best part is why blue chips, the best part is the blue chips, they never go to zero, except very, see, it can happen in 10, but that's judgment calls, where there is litigation, where there is talk of theft, stay away until the cloud is not clear, you know, in general, don't get into those kinds of controversial places, these competition-oriented places are the best places, but you know, sanity will Will come sir then later yes yes because the guy who is coming in is also coming to earn money well in this you have put a little technical thing in it, it is in the book itself, if you want to get to the point of maximum pessimism it is not my subject it is not my content to see double bottom all this but then we talk to Jandan normally for that yes no no generally it is written in the book to cut the waiting period see how do you it can happen that you are facing problem due to this beating or whatever reason pacha pacha so you could be in value trap so how do you how do you avoid the value trap and make it as short as possible
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