저자: JessicaInsep · 외국인
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주간 상승 마감 속 기술주 쏠림 지적: AI 설비투자는 기업 수요로 소비자 경기와 괴리, 지수 상승 대부분이 Mag7 주도. 엔비디아는 지수 비중 8%로 사상 최대 시총, 하이퍼스케일러 capex 확대가 촉매라며 추세 유지 관점. 애플은 관세 면제·대규모 투자 이후 기술적 반등을 근거로 단기 상승 여력을 언급했고, 옵션 전략(커버드콜/현금담보 풋)도 제시. 자코브스는 리쇼어링·인프라 수혜주로 기술적 돌파를 주목.
다듬은 글
Welcome back to Trading 360. I am Sam Bardis. It's time now for the big three. Three stocks, three charts, three trades. Kevin Green will take us through the charts. And here to take us through the trades is, I'm pleased to say, Jessica Insep, director of investor research at stockbrokers.com and she is joining me around the desk this morning.
Great to see you both. Jessica, let's start with your just big picture take on the markets today because we're looking to close out a winning week. I think the best since June. So, I mean, what are your thoughts at the moment given there's just been, you know, a fairly data light week and pretty earnings heavy?
It has been. We're going to go into a data heavy week next week, which I think will could certainly be a catalyst. I I do think we're getting rather narrow. Tech is leading. I've see some mixed earnings on the consumer, which is of concern, but that hasn't showed up in the data yet, and I think that will perhaps next year.
But if we think about the overall market, and it's something that's just really increasingly been on my mind, we've got more tech spend taking percentage of GDP. The market is driven by technology from a percentage perspective. And those companies, their customers are companies and businesses. They're not the consumer.
So now there is a point where we need to translate that over to the consumer. We need a healthy consumer because the whole purpose of AI is increase productivity but ultimately we need the consumer to spend in that money wheel. So if we get targeted advertising and things like that which is the ultimate goal in fruition that's just longer in the cycle.
So what I'm trying to say here is the stock market I feel is getting more disconnected from the economy and it's very driven by technology and artificial intelligence which doesn't require a healthy consumer. It requires healthy businesses and large capex spend which is happening now and they just got an influx of cash via fiscal policy.
So it's it's an interesting dynamic that cannot last but it can make sustainability in the broader market for some time. So fascinating the points that you make this morning because it really ties together everything we've been hearing. We heard from XYZ block this morning. I mean there seems to be some concerns around advertising also from the likes of Pinterest.
As you as you mentioned, you do need the consumer, but AI is just a story in itself. Uh you say disconnected. That was exactly what Lori Kvercina said from RBC this morning. Disconnection between the American corporate psyche and the investor psyche right now. And to Kenny Pukari's point, and we're going to be talking about this in just a second, uh he also is talking about the fact that if you strip out the MAG 7 from the NASDAQ, uh we have been looking at a 45 point loss actually.
So we are seeing the MAG7 is disproportionately driving index performance and uh that is perhaps giving a false sense of security for those investors who think that this is broad-based. Absolutely. So let's talk about the Mag 7 and Nvidia. Yeah, that's that's why it's my first and this this is what keeps me up at night.
These are these are my thoughts. Um but uh Nvidia can be the next catalyst. So I heard a lovely stat this morning. It now makes up 8% of the index and by market cap it is the largest in its history ever. Wow. So that if that doesn't say that it it can absolutely move the market, it absolutely will. But this is the beauty of this.
There is hyperscaler spend surge. We saw this with Meta, Google, Microsoft, Amazon. They are spending because of what happened with that triple B bill. And also we're getting clarity with tariffs. Now, if we can play nice with fiscal policy, we can get an exemption. And the one thing the market does not like is uncertainty.
So, now we see an increase in spending because they can that influx of cash. The person who's not spending and benefiting would be Nvidia, right? So, that is has to be a catalyst. It has to be a tailwind. I I really think that this is going to fuel capex upgrades and is will help pull the market because it can because of it makes up 8% of the index.
Well, 10 uh you know to Dan Ives's point, I mean he's been talking about the fact that every dollar spent at Nvidia has those knock on and flow on effects. Uh interesting stat 8% of the index on the eighth day of the eighth month. Let's get to Kevin to take us through the chart. Auspicious or what? Well, it's a little scary that it's 8% of the overall index, but we are seeing once again a bull trend when it comes to this name.
When you're looking at Nvidia overall, we've seen these well-defined channels over the last year. Last year around this time, obviously, we had a little bit of a breakdown, double bottom pattern uh happening here, and we had once again a a significant area of support as well as resistance when it comes to this channel.
We flagged out a little bit. Uh obviously going into December, it was a little bit more of a wider channel. Volatility was up. We tested that 200 day moving average. We lost it. And then we saw a little bit of buying coming into the market here. Now, what's actually very interesting, if you actually uh if you actually extended this down channel here, this actually does still come into effect.
You see a breakout. That breakout occurs at the 200 day moving average. And once again, well defined ever since. I mean, it's really hard to try to fade this name at this point in time. The only thing that that I will say that could be a little bit bearish or maybe signals some consolidation on the horizon here is the RSI.
We are actually seeing lower highs at this point in time. So, as price is moving up, uh, we have also RSI kind of moving to the downside. M, MACD flattening out, still over the zero line here, but you do have the 12 EMA below the 26 EMA. Obviously, it's still bullish. It's bullish until proven otherwise.
What you would want to see is a break of this channel, which also aligns with that 20-day moving average. That would be your first signal. A little light up here when it comes to volume as well. And if we do see a breakdown, that 200 day moving average is going to be your first area of support. So I can't say give anything to the bears right now for Nvidia but what I can say is that if you're a bull continue to trade the trend as the trend has been intact.
Yeah seems to be a case of can do no wrong with this company. Um let's move on to Apple really big week as far as headline for this company particularly given the rally we've seen. Uh we've got obviously the hint at M&A that was the first thing we sort of learned from the earnings and then we've obviously had the sort of pilgrimage to the White House and the $100 billion investment with the exemption on the tariffs.
So right that's been you know two really fascinating parts to this story. Uh what are you seeing with this company? Well, one, I think this is going to open up some opportunities because ultimately going back to where we need the consumer to be, their primary revenue driver is iPhones. So, that can be a concern.
Um, I we did break a lot of technical levels. 215 was something I was watching. 220 is was my next point and I think we have overcome that already. But this is what I'm considering from market share perspective. if they have an exemption and their competitors do not necessarily because of their exposure, they could gather market share and that's good for Apple overall.
So, what we need to see is this this d-risk that they've had. We can expand their supply chain. I want to see what that looks like and then ultimately does that actually translate over to earnings. That is important. The market moves on earnings. We want to see it translate to earnings. We are pulling forward a lot of earnings at this moment.
So what I'm saying for Apple from a trade perspective I if you own it already sell some covered calls that creates some neutrality capture some upside potential maybe a 02 delta if you don't own it a great time to sell a cash secured plate do that at maybe a.5 delta 45 days out but it's it's interesting because I believe this was a catalyst for overall technology as well because of tariff exemption
that's clarity we need clarity clarity already reduces volatility. It certainly has been an overhang for the stock. I mean the tariff uh part of the story and you know these exemptions may have lifted that. Uh I was speaking about this this morning also Kevin with another guest about the analogy that Ben Watson had given me about a kickboard sort of being held under the water and being released now as far as what we've seen in this stock.
Is that how you would characterize it and what you seeing in the charts? narrative out of it and let's just look at the technicals here. You know, everybody's been talking about Apple and really dogging the stock here over this whole year. But if you look back and look at a three-year weekly chart, it's doing exactly what it's supposed to do.
We actually have this well- definfined channel here. We hit the lower end of that channel uh just now. And what you would expect is that it would move up and then hit the upper end of that channel until it hits resistance. We see this over the last three years. Once again, well-defined channel. we maybe have a little bit of a breakout, but it usually tries to come right back into the mean there.
And that's exactly what we are seeing right now. And I would not get too too concerned about this name and all of the narratives that are actually being placed at this point in time. The candle this week, very strong bullish candle as well. You wish it was actually a bullish engulfing candle, but it's good enough uh to show that there are buyers really stepping in to this name.
The other reason why I kind of bring this up, I would say not once in a generation, but once in a cycle for Apple that it actually hits a 200 week moving average. That's actually a very big deal and where buyers did step in. RSI, it is trying to now form higher lows and potentially higher highs here.
But the big deal for me is the MACD. The MACD on the weekly chart actually has crossed in a bullish formation. 12 EMA above the 26 EMA, still below that zero line, but this thing is just getting started. And if you look at some of these trends over the last year where we or last three years where we see these bullish crosses like we have this one right here, we kind of map that out to what the stock does.
Look at that trajectory. We can go back over on this side as well and you could see back in 2023 we had a bullish cross what happens after that on the weekly chart. So I'm not sure why people have been freaking out this year about Apple. Technically it's doing exactly what it needs to do. And this is potentially the start of a pretty significant run where the stock could look at $260, $265 over the next couple months.
Okay, thank you Kevin Green. And to a lesserk known name, particularly in this context, Jessica, you're looking at Jacob's solutions. Why? Yeah. Well, first of all, this actually came up with a conversation with Jim Kramer yesterday where we were talking about uh just this infrastructure and he thinks that's exactly what's missing.
And um I have a call out for made in America 2.0. That seems where fiscal policy is spending money. So I'm watching for any activity across infrastructure, manufacturing as themes really tied to fiscal policy and that hopefully could lead to jobs, some health in the consumer. But that missing piece of the equation on the longer term view that I'm concerned about.
But we've seen some railroad deals with that's we haven't heard from that in a long time. And uh Jacobs going deeper. They have done this made in America 2.2 billion port of Long Beach rail expansion. So this onshoring catalyst Jacobs could absolutely be a solution to that. There's sector strength within infrastructure and when I pulled the technicals on this I loved it as well because it fits into that overall reshoring theme and I can believe it actually could reacelerate the broader market as well.
And we're looking for beneficiaries and infrastructure. It's not Caterpillar, but it looks like it's this company because most of their revenue is tied to that type of spending. Yeah, it ticks a lot of boxes to your point, I suppose, reshoring, onshoring, and you know, certainly as far as manufacturing is concerned, to your point about the jobs as well.
What are you seeing on the technicals with this one, Kevin? Yeah, I mean, it depends on the trader that you are. I mean, it seems like Jessica is looking for the breakout from this overall resistance zone right now. better than uh maybe a reversion trader here. But we see obviously the stock having a very strong run, a positive uptrend to the upside here.
I also have these purple lines and this orange line here. This is just a regression channel of price over the last year. So when you look at the purple lines, that just means that there's a two standard deviation move away from the mean or the average price for the stock. So we are hitting that level right now.
Now, when we were at these levels before, uh, obviously we did see a little bit of a flag pattern and we did see a breakdown. What's going to happen this time around is going to be the big question. Do we actually see a breakout to the upside here or do we actually see a little bit more of a breakdown to the downside?
I'm looking at the 200 day moving average sitting at 131 spot six as your first major area of support along with that 20-day moving average here. But if you're looking at the oscillators, they do look fairly strong. RSI making higher highs as well as higher lows. You're also looking at the MACD in a bullish formation as well.
This is just one of those ones that if you like trading breakouts, if that's your thing, this could actually be a pretty decent trade here for you. But if you like to fade these breakouts, maybe there's an opportunity for you as well. So bullish chart overall, but you could make the case that maybe a pullback is on the horizon here.
Maybe a check back to see if some buyers will really step in. Awesome stuff. Thank you so much, Kevin, for getting us across that one. also the charts for Nvidia and Apple. And thank you so much to Jessica Insk for joining me around the desk today and breaking down your thesis on some of the fundamentals and uh how you're looking at some of these companies. Really appreciate your time today and have a great weekend.
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