저자: JasonBrown · 외국인
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S&P500 신고가는 AI·기술주에 편중된 상승이라 기술주 약세 시 조정 우려가 있다. AI 투자는 초기 단계로 엔비디아·브로드컴·TSMC가 설비투자 수혜주다. 엔비디아는 컵앤핸들 돌파 후 조정 중으로 2026년 6월 18일 만기 콜(행사가 172) 장기 매수 관점. 브로드컴은 커스텀칩 강자로 2026년 6월 콜(행사가 270) 장기 관점. TSMC는 파운드리 수혜로 2026년 6월 콜(행사가 230) 6~12개월 관점. 벤 왓슨은 RSI·MACD 약세 다이버전스를 단기 휴지기로 해석하며 기술적 지지선을 제시.
다듬은 글
Welcome back to Trade 360. I'm Diane King Hall. Now it's time for three big stocks, three charts, and three trades. Ben Watson will guide us through the graph. And here to walk us through the trade is Jason Brown, founder of brownreport.com and author of the book Five-Year Millionaire. It was great to be with you both, with Jason on set, and Ben, again , I spoke with Ben this morning.
He will join us virtually. Before we hear your picks today, I want to get a big picture look at the market, especially as we end the month, because I know you pay attention to patterns. Well, as I said the last time I was here, I was cautiously optimistic , and I'm still cautiously optimistic, because when you look at the breadth of the market, the S&P 500 is making new highs, but what's causing that?
There are really two industries, namely industry, and then it is largely powered by technology and AI. So, other markets do not participate widely. So, if technology starts to weaken a little bit, I think we could have a setback. It might be a setback, right? Considering the heat of the situation we are facing here.
Okay, so one stock that hasn't felt the heat of the downturn is Nvidia. That stock is on your list today. What is the approach now, especially given the outstanding performance we have seen recently? Yeah, so the way I look at AI, Diane, is that we're witnessing or experiencing it like electricity being installed in homes.
So, they had to build the power grid, they had to mine the copper and run the wires into the house, and then they needed a switch to turn on the electricity in the house. The same thing is happening with AI today. So, we need chips, we need a power grid, and then we also need switches. So, Nvidia will be the recipient of all those chips.
You see all the companies. Not all companies, but some Mag 7 reports and they talk about capital expenditures rising into the billions. Microsoft spent nearly 30 billion this quarter alone, and Nvidia will be the recipient. When you look at AI, are we at the beginning, middle, or end? I can assure you that we are at the beginning, or they would not be increasing their capital expenditures.
They have n't even stopped it, let alone started saying that we're going to slow down spending on it. So, I believe we are still in the early stages, and companies like Nvidia will be the recipients of all the capital spending on chips . Okay. Okay. So, before we get into more detail about your trade, I'd like to invite Ben to take a look at this chart.
I've always loved Ben's point of view. Ben, what do you notice about the pattern here? Well, I'll let you know, Dan and Jason, thanks for the introduction. Because Nvidia, I think you're absolutely right, is at the beginning of their larger narrative; but a smaller narrative, look at what's happening with the stock right now: seeing a bit of a gap up and sell-off today.
And I think that's the nature of leadership. I mean, Nvidia has been in a kind of leadership and driving role in this AI spending space, but at the same time we had some really big earnings announcements. So the nature of the market is that you get out of some of those leaders and into the ones that are now emerging in terms of growth.
And I think that's what we're seeing a little bit of today. Some Nvidia investment pairs are in the gap up sell today, selling a bit off that high price so the money can be put elsewhere. Because what I noticed in this chart in the bottom panel in the two sentiment indicators that I have, the RSI and the MACD, in both cases we see a bit of bearish divergence.
Now, that doesn't mean it signals a potential reversal, it just signals a pause and a bit of rotation in the very short term. Because you see the consistency of this trend, the trend is very strong. Now , the question becomes, Diana, and I think this is something we're going to talk about in all three of these stocks that we're going to see, you see the same kind of thing .
A bit of a bearish divergence, a slowdown in momentum as suggested going into the summer and potentially uh this uh doesn't really move the market, but it does pause the market a bit at least right now here with Nvidia. Okay. So, uh Jason, the floor is yours. Tell us a little about your trading approach here.
Yes, so I want to say that I totally agree with Ben. And also , I think it's important to remember that even in an uptrend, stocks experience pullbacks or slight sell-offs to the moving averages. So, that's what I'm looking at on the June 18, 2026 long-term call. The reason is that money will continue to flow into AI and companies like Nvidia.
So, we don't need to panic about every daily movement. However, if you look at the movement that Microsoft has made over time, that cup and handle pattern, the stock has gone higher. Nvidia just broke above its resistance level and formed that cup and handle pattern . We are now on that handle. And that grip can continue for a while.
So, the June 18, 2026 call, strike price 172. You paid about $35 for it. The breakeven point is 207. You have 322 days for the trade to expire. And like any other trade, you want to think about where I would have gone wrong if this trade had gone against me? I see the 20-day moving average where you want to start reconsidering whether you need to take a small loss or roll some put options into that play to protect your account.
Okay, let's talk about the next one on your list. You also included Broadcom in your list today. Some argue that the company should be a member of Mag 7 or let's call it Mag 7 plus as my colleague Nicole calls it. So share your views here. So, what I like about Broadcom is that it's not just another chip manufacturer.
Broadcom specializes in making custom chips. So, the customer is Apple for the M1 chip and some silicon chips. The company partnered with Google. The company partnered with Amazon for AWS or Amazon Web Services. So, they make custom chips for specific applications, which is what I like about Taiwan Semiconductor.
So, they don't have to compete with Nvidia because Nvidia makes broad-based chips for general purposes. However, when you need something special, this is the company to go to. So, I like Broadcom. And like Nvidia, like Microsoft which is in a cup and handle pattern, you see the handle starting to come out.
I think the uptrend may continue. Okay, Jason is now diving into your path, Ben, with those patterns, the cup and handle patterns that he noticed. What do you notice on this graph, Ben? Yes, again, the thing is that the strength of the trend is key here. From those April lows, like many others we've seen, you've seen some consistency in this trend.
And the nature of an uptrend is generally to rally up, pull back to a support level, and then rally up from there, sort of creating a bull flag perspective. And I think that's probably what's happening at Broadcom as we're seeing today, again, a little bit of a higher price discovery test. Down 1.3% on the day, so a little bit of a move up and then a little bit of a sell-off.
Potential to go back down to the 290 level which I have drawn there as a support level. And the consistency of the narrative here again is that the RSI MACD are both declining as these prices move higher. It does not indicate that this is an indication of a reversal. I think if you see it drop below 247 where I've been drawing it there, that would be a much bigger concern .
But the fact that it's only slowing down here suggests perhaps some rotation to other opportunities and the possibility to enter on a bounce from the support level around the 290 mark. But the trend consistency is still there, as evidenced by the 200-period moving average still moving higher, Diane .
Okay. Okay, now Jason, explain your trading approach for Broadcom from here with that strategy. So, we look at Broadcom, same thing. I want to go out for about a year. So, I saw a call option with a strike price of 270 on June 18th. It costs about $70. Your breakeven point is roughly around 340. You have 322 days on that option.
And as I said, you always want to have the wrong level. If the market starts to turn around, there are only two sectors holding it back, industrials and technology . And if technology starts to go down, other things will go down with it. However, in the long run, I think we will go higher. However, you want to look at that 20-day moving average, see if it comes back to test it, and then goes higher.
But that's the trade. Give it time. Don't trade it every day. Just let the money flow into this sector because we are experiencing electricity being injected in the form of AI again. Okay, and let's talk about the last one on your list. You have Taiwan Semi on your list. Also outperforming the S&P 500 this year.
Okay, now where do you go? So, the thought process behind Taiwan Semiconductor is that they don't make chips, so they don't compete with anyone, but they are the place everyone goes to make their chips. So, they are the foundry. So, yeah, I like that. So, they are actually the benefactors of all those seven max rounds and then they are the benefactors of Nvidia, of Broadcom who need their chips made or their custom chips or their broad use chips made.
So, they're like if there's a gold mine and people are selling shovels, they 're the company that sells picks and shovels to help you mine gold. So, I like that. They have their own path. Also, the cup and handle pattern of the stock broke out and continued to rise. As with any trade , you want to have a level of error.
So, I'm looking at this on the 20-day moving average as well, but I'm sure Ben will walk us through the technical aspects. Okay, Ben. Yes, you go up. What does the technical aspect look like for you from your perspective? A very similar perspective to the previous two. The strength of that trend is from the April lows, and now you're seeing a bit of a pattern developing here over the last week or so around this 245 figure, which has acted as resistance once, twice, three times.
And that's what was tested yesterday and today, and if we get a bounce off the bottom of this ascending triangle and break through that 245 figure, the technical aspects suggest a move out to a symmetrical target around the 260 figure. What works against it again is the consistent narrative of bearish sentiment indicators .
We saw it even happen today in the MACD and RSI a little weakness in that upward momentum. So it should regain some momentum but the overall long term trend is still there. You have an objective point where a decision can be made here, Diane. So not on, but a play on words. You always deliver what you say, Ben.
Well, Jason, it's up to you in terms of your trading approach here. Tell us. Yeah, so Taiwan Semiconductor, you probably know the rules by now. We'll be out for at least a year or so. We see a June 18, 2026 call option with a strike price of 230. We paid about $43 for it, which would put you at about 273 to break even.
Ben points out that the options tested the 245 area. So, the options did form a doji about a week ago there and had a hard time breaking through, but remember, with earnings coming out, some people are going to take profits and the stocks are going to go right up. But again, if you're looking at a year or so out, this is an industry and a sector where money is flowing and I think if you can give yourself 6 to 12 months, I think in the long run the value will be higher.
And again, you want to have the wrong level. I like the 20 day moving average. If the value drops below that, we have to start asking ourselves, do we want to take a small loss or do we want to put some put options in there to protect our portfolio? Okay, Jason, thank you. That's today's trade from Jason Brown, founder of brownreport.com and also our thanks to Ben Watson, senior manager of trading services here for Charles Schwab.
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