저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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결론: 장기 부의 창출에는 채권보다 주식이 훨씬 유리하다는 주장이다. [생산성·경제 전망] 최근 분기 생산성이 코로나 기간을 제외하면 6년여 만에 가장 좋았고, 생산성 상승 덕분에 고용 압박과 인플레이션 압박 없이 강한 GDP 성장이 가능하다고 봤다. 이것이 실질금리 상승과 금리 상승의 배경이라고 설명했다. [채권 vs 주식 장기 수익] TIPS 실질금리 2%는 수십 년 만에 최고 수준이지만, 2%로는 원금이 두 배가 되는 데 36년이 걸린다. 반면 S&P500 이익수익률 5% 수준(PER 20 기준)은 약 14년이면 두 배가 된다. 5% 채권은 단기(2년)에는 매력적일 수 있으나 장기 부 축적에는 주식보다 불리하다고 주장했다. [배당주 전략] 배당 귀족·배당 왕 종목은 배당 수익률 2~3%지만 매년 배당을 올려 수년 내 배당 수익률이 5% 수준에 도달하고 자본차익도 기대할 수 있다고 제시했다. 출연자는 배당주 포트폴리오(2만7천달러 규모)를 꾸준히 적립 중이라고 밝혔다. [연준·잭슨홀 전망] 잭슨홀 전후 연준 발언은 데이터 의존적 태도를 강조하면서 약간 매파적일 것으로 예상했다. 10년 BEI 2.3%를 근거로 장기 인플레 기대는 통제되고 있으며, 생산성이 높다면 추가 금리 인상이 필요 없다는 견해도 나왔다. 장기 금리 상승으로 장단기 금리차는 역전이 해소되는 중이라고 언급했다. [종목 언급] 엔비디아와 매그니피센트7 등 성장주를 언급했으나 구체적 방향·목표가는 제시되지 않았다. [리스크·조건] 단기 2년 채권은 금리 변동과 시장 하락 상황에서 유리할 수 있으나 장기 관점에서는 불리하다. 안정적 자산 배분이 필요한 경우 채권이 의미 있다는 단서가 있다. [출연자 전망] 잭슨홀 이번 주는 실적발표와 연준 연설로 시장이 크게 흔들릴 수 있으니 현금을 준비하라는 취지의 진행자 발언이 있었으나, 이는 사회자 발언이므로 제외한다.
다듬은 글
today the widely known and loved Jeremy Siegel is on CNBC and he's saying no way bonds are as good as stocks for the long run and wealth creation so he's going to give his opinions on that as well as what to expect from Jackson Hole guys this week is going to be crazy we've gotten video earnings on Wednesday Jackson Hole on Thursday and Friday and it is just going to shake up the market absolutely crazy so I hope you got some cash on the sidelines and I hope you're ready as well I got my Lahaina Maui shirt on my prayers go out to anybody affected and anybody that knows anybody already let's jump into what Jeremy Siegel has to say Jeremy Siegel professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School good morning professor good morning Steve okay so let's start off with where the economy is now and and Jeremy you have an idea here about what's going on with productivity that's I don't know I don't think people are thinking enough about this we've had if you don't know who Jeremy Siegel is he's a professor at the Wharton School a couple lousy quarters and then we had a couple really good quarters do you think we're really having a productivity surge in this economy well yeah I mean and you know the last quarter was outside of the few months around the pandemic the the best quarter for productivity in uh in over six years and if if this quarter I mean we've been you know I mean I know the St Louis fed is way up there others are not that high but uh you know given modest growth in hours and in payroll it looks like another third quarter boom in productivity uh this is really saving Jay Powell I mean this is this is the best the best news I mean that's how you can have strong GDP growth without pressure on the labor market and really without pressure on on inflation um I mean you know that that's the uh uh the golden magic over here so I think I think that that you know that's really playing into um uh what we see in the economy why and by the way why yields are going up also real GDP growth and real yields you know I'd like to comment you had you guys had a great discussion right at six o'clock when when you opened about about real returns and you know the tips going to two percent is that a way that you should now invest in for wealth let me mention two percent a year it's good it's the biggest in decades um however two percent after inflation a year takes 36 years to double your money at a 20pe which you also mentioned which is right that's a five percent earnings yield in stocks the general S P 500 that takes 14 years to double your money night and day difference I mean not even close so okay all right let's move your money in bonds you've multiplied your money by five times in stock so people who tell me oh my goodness you know bonds are as good as stocks no way for long run uh wealth of creation let's unpack that Professor because I think that's important and it's it's it's kind of against my thinking on this right you'd like the like bonds but you can't I really want you can't find that case I'm going to try nobody has ever built wealth Professor you tell me I can see this five juicy percent two-year note and I put my money in there at the end of that period I'm gonna get five percent and that's going to be three percentage points or two percentage points higher than the inflation rate and I'm gonna be really happy you're telling me I'm going to be unhappy because I was better off putting my money in stocks I should ignore those big fantastic yields on the two year first of all in two years anything can happen we know we know that I mean uh you know the stock market could go down 10 or 20 I'm talking about building longer terms well and I'm I'm saying if you you know if particularly if you're young you're building your retirement account you're thinking about you know your retirement that's what really counts and you know even you know two percent is certainly attractive compared to earlier by the way when when tips came out in 1997 uh they were three and a half and they went above four so I mean even though two is certainly better than it was 10 years ago five years ago you know it isn't all that great compared to history and well below stock uh you know the average over 200 years of six and a half and I'm giving a conservative five percent after inflation rate of return in stocks you are absolutely right in two years you might be very happy with bonds you might not be happy with bonds but over 10 years the rates go down you have nowhere to go this is absolute gold they have been pushing bonds as safety and so much free money and you can get the five percent without the risk here yeah but you're also missing the best times to put your money on the dips and the best companies and if you're focused on long-term wealth creation and you've got a Time Horizon wasting your time and money and bonds that's what Jeremy Siegel has to say he just proved it to you you want 28 years to double your money or do you want 14 years I believe those were the numbers well you stop with your stupid five percent and then you know if rates go up I guess you can reinvest a little and then you can get six percent but you know if you don't want to buy Nvidia and make you know whatever or or the Magnificent Seven or something really sexy you can buy really good companies that have a yield of like two or three percent and they raise their dividend every year for 50 to 15 percent so suddenly the dividend is up to your five percent in a couple of years and you got the capital pre it's just no re unless you need a stable part of your portfolio that you know you're going to get a return on but and if it's not corporate if it's not treasuries then you even got to worry about getting your money back anyway if you go out to eat and then you get the reinvestor from Professor can you handicap this weekend do you believe that you know yeah I'm just trying I am putting a portion into the do you I am I am buying you are but with the cash that I have I I you know if you put 10 grand in and I told Kelly this last week you get four or this is on a longer term but before it went from four to four and a quarter that means you know what that means on ten Grand if you take your wife out you can get an appetizer after after a year right if you're if everybody likes an appetite yeah because instead of 400 that you get on 10 grand you get 425 dollars it's just like laughable guys make sure and get two appetizers actually come on this is a stock market channel that doesn't mean people should only invest in stocks no but it kind of does Professor can you can you just handicap this week uh and what you think Powell should say what he will say where's policy going and what does that mean for the stock market stock market very very honestly Steve and of course you filed the Fed so closely you know since the three and a half weeks I guess it is since the last press conference all right real quick just before he gets into Jackson Hole guys I've had my share of both sides I haven't quite had bonds but I went after the yield and the safety I had a dividend portfolio over twenty seven thousand dollars I was building up I was just putting money in consistently week after week after week and if yield is what you want start a dividend portfolio with dividend Aristocrats and dividend Kings you'll get appreciation from the stock you'll get the dividend and you'll get the dividend rate increase this guys if yield is what you're going after these bonds are not going to last in my opinion he's already showed you the math that it's going to take almost double the time to double your money might as well get something that's going to keep increasing their rates AKA dividend paying stock for a young 20 25 30 year old person I don't see any place in the bond market honestly I don't think a lot has happened that changes the Outlook I I think he's going to say you know we're not you know quite done we're close to the job uh I think he's gonna stay very data dependent don't forget we still have a full month with a full month a load of of data announcements coming out before the September 20th meeting so he's going to stress that uh data dependency uh you know I think there will be a kind of a slightly hawkish uh tilt because you know we're not down to that Target but uh you know honestly I I don't you know if you want to recruit the higher real yields and the higher interest rates are working in his direction towards tightening Powers but here's the thing if he follows what you talked about the very beginning of this conversation that productivity is higher that we can have stronger growth lower inflation and a low unemployment rate would you tell him that he should not be hiking anymore and that maybe you should think about cutting I I I mean I would be on the alert but uh I would say yeah you don't you don't need you don't need to hike anymore uh you know you got tightening on them on that long end uh since the last meeting um that uh and when we take a look at all the other indicate you know the the break even between the tips and the tenure which is one of their favorite indicators of what in 10-year inflation is going to be it's 2.3 percent okay that's not 2-0 but right my goodness that's you know take a look at what the market is looking at longer term and seeing those Trends I don't I don't think that's threatening and and you want to start listen the term structure is uninverting do you want to invert it more yes you will if you raise another 25 basis points on the on the 10-year Professor is always a pleasure to talk to you on the FED fund yeah Professor always a pleasure to talk to you thanks for joining us all right there's Jeremy Siegel for you he such a knowledgeable man even knows how the FED thinks what metrics they use what indicators they go after and he bases opinion on that and so much more research he's a professor of Finance this guy has made his name over years and years and years of being directly in the finance market and he puts his name out there and he makes a lot of great calls I hope as always you guys enjoy this video and if you did hit the like button and I will catch you in the next one
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