저자: RobertSchein · 외국인
요약 보기
이란 지정학 리스크는 단기적일 것으로 보고 투자자는 호흡을 가다듬어야 한다는 입장. AI 스토리는 여전히 유효하며 기술주는 S&P500의 약 30%를 차지. 소프트웨어 매도는 감정적이며 해자 있는 AI 수혜 소프트웨어가 유리. 엔비디아는 실적 이후 조정이 예상 범위였고 펀더멘털은 견조. 팔란티어는 AI 플랫폼 성장과 방산 수요로 내구성 강조. 중간선거 변동성과 감세 효과 등 후반기 촉매를 언급하며 S&P 8000 경로 가능성 제시. 현금을 두고 분할매수하되 개별 종목 중심으로 접근.
다듬은 글
Welcome back to opening bell. Let's get you set up for the trading day. Joining us now is Robert Shine, chief investment officer at Blank Shine Wealth Management. And so first and foremost, thank you so much for being with us this morning, Robert. As we know when geopolitical tensions flare up, frankly, investors instinctively rotate into things like oil, gold, but you do expect the market impact to be short-lived this time.
And so what really gives you that confidence that the situation will not turn into a more prolonged market moving conflict? This is a moment in time where investors have to take a step back, uh take a deep breath. Uh our hope is and our belief is is that this uh geopolitical conflict in Iran is going to be hopefully short-lived.
I think everybody, including the markets, uh hope that's the case, but we're seeing the disruption, obviously oil, and the impacts negatively on the oil markets globally. So at this moment in time, investors just have to take a breather, uh position their their books, if you will, their investments accordingly, and take advantage of some opportunities as you look longer term through this conflict.
Okay, and so to shift gears a bit here, you argue about about about some of the confusion around AI that it's one of the biggest reasons we've seen the S&P and tech stocks stalling this year. So what specifically does it seem like investors have really struggled to grasp when it comes to like the broad reaching AI builds?
Well, if you look at what we just heard from Nvidia and Broadcom, uh the AI story is still real. It's scalable. We're seeing this on all aspects of the economy, and we're still at the early stages of AI. So very specifically, technology is, you know, a good 30% of the S&P 500, and so it moves the market quite significantly to the downside as we saw earlier in the last uh let's say year-to-date, if you will, but there are some green shoots with underneath that.
Even prior to the Iran conflict, we did see a bid in some of the software names that sold off greatly. So, that's kind of constructive underneath the market as we're seeing the the software sell off. Okay, so as far as the software sell off is concerned, as it's been seen as I mean like rational, irrational, whatever you want to call it, but obviously sentiment driven.
How do you investors distinguish between high quality AI exposed software names and some of these legacy SaaS companies that deserve perhaps lower valuations? Yeah, you kind of want to look for that that quality within the let's say software companies, those that have the moat if you will. Those that you know, artificial intelligence is only going to make those software names stronger moving forward, not weaker.
I think the market is just parsing through that as we go through the software names. Okay, and so you have owned Nvidia since about May of 2023 and still like the fundamentals, but you did note that the stock has shifted from a momentum trade to a more core infrastructure compounder. What does this mean though for expectations around their stock performance going forward cuz I will say I was a bit even disappointed with some of their movement around earnings that were stellar last week.
Yeah, the Nvidia movement post their uh reporting uh was to be expected if you will. Nvidia has run up so much and so what the markets actually and investors are actually looking for is that litmus test to find out if the story continues. Is it real? Nvidia even in the last few days are making steps to um make those moves uh even stronger internally.
So, they're taking a step back from uh even their third chip if you will that's going to go over to China and they're going to move into uh making uh the the internal chips here even stronger. Their third rate chip is still 10 times oversubscribed, not to mention what they have uh in the moving forward.
Okay, and you do still see a path to an S&P 8000, but more in the road could be bumpy and obviously depend on some of the the big tech re-engaging frankly here. What catalyst do you eventually think could bring some of the large cap tech into this dominance? As we said before, so if you look at 2025, you have only three sectors that were outperforming the S&P 500.
Now, as we saw the market broadening out, we have about seven, eight sectors prior to the Iran news right now and the sell-off that we're experiencing. That being said, the broadening out when let's say in industrials and even we could see financials catch a bid. Those have to catch up, but we could see, you know, we're in a midterm election cycle and every time you have a midterm election cycle for the markets, there is that volatility.
Back end of the year, we have the, you know, right now one big beautiful bill is a catalyst, $150 billion that we're going to see in tax receipts to the consumer. Consumers are going to spend that money. It's not going to be in the savings, if you will. We also have certainty with regards to what we're going to get on the election cycle and we believe we're going to have divided Congress and that couldn't that might not be a bad thing cuz it will stop the spending in Washington.
That's really the inflationary issue amongst others right now is is the inflation concern. But right now in the short term, it's oil and that's the story of the day and that's why the markets are are moving. Okay, and so as far as some of your stock picks, I wanted to get to those. You did have to positions in in names like G Vernova, Palantir, which has been like an unstoppable force, but as really being these AI infrastructure plays in the broader AI economy.
So what makes these businesses in your opinion maybe more durable in the midterm than a lot of these other crowded AI trades? Yeah, so in the AI space, we do like the AI adjacent names. And so specifically, you mentioned Palantir. If we just look at the geopolitical environment that we're in with regards to how Palantir helps, they have the AI platform that oh, by the way, is up 137% year-over-year in terms of that business unit.
But in the in the aerospace and defense, what they're specifically doing is that platform helps put together and have the systems talk to each other from satellites, drones, as well as the radar systems integrated into one military system. So, you know, Palantir is one of those stocks where the Apples and the Open AIs just simply can't live without.
So, that's one of the reasons why we really like that story. Okay, and so you were also telling investors to stay fully invested and buy the dips despite this volatility. And so for someone feeling maybe a bit fatigued by the uncertainty, what do you see as the biggest risk of trying to time this market right now?
Yeah, it's not about my market timing. We've always had cash on the sidelines and we always let the market come to us. Like we said before, we're believer in active money management and there's individual names that are providing tremendous opportunity. We're putting that cash to work, but we're not jumping in wholeheartedly just yet.
It's all about the dollar cost averaging and taking advantage of individual names, not the indices, if you will. Okay, so really good important takeaways and I so appreciate your time on this Friday and really great, I think insights into the the broader market. Robert Shine of Blank Shine Wealth Management. Thank you so much.
Comments 0