저자: Kevin · 외국인
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팔란티어가 최근 177% 급락했으나 과도한 매도일 수 있다고 봄. 정부 계약 매출 비중 66%로 국방예산 삭감(펜타곤 8% 감축안) 리스크가 있지만, 효율성 중시 기조(DOGE)에 수혜 가능성도 언급. 밸류에이션은 2025 조정 EPS 기준 PER 약 229배, PEG 약 9로 매우 비싸다고 평가. 알렉스 카프 매도 계획, 내부자 매도 등 수급 부담 지적. 장기적으로는 우수한 기업으로 평가하나 단기 모멘텀 소멸 가능성 경고.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me Kevin here we need to talk about palente here now palente here has sold off 177% since some of the recent news that has been going on we'll talk about that and we'll also talk about palte valuation in this video but what I want to say up front is usually sell-offs like this are overblown and there will be a bounceback unless of course the stock is only propped up on some form of momentum which could potentially start fading we're going to talk about that we're going to be going through the annual report for the company the earnings calls for the companies we're going to be looking at fundamentals of the company uh what's going on with the stock of the company and some projections for the company and of course also we'll we'll start with the news but I want you to know that's the basic part basic part is the news the details and the fundamentals what we really want to talk about here so let's get started uh first let's just understand uh why we're making this video uh paler is attracting a lot of attention today because it's stock uh has been on this euphoric uh uh rally essentially this incredible run really since Jim Kramer tweeted that uh paler wasn't going to go up in the stock price and you should not buy it unfortunately via the Kramer effect if you will we could actually see uh two different uh tweets from Jim Kramer that give us a little bit of a heads up of what might be coming for paler the first tweet that we get from Jim Kramer is actually right here uh I wrote in September on September 18th I wrote Jim Kramer just said paler is a cold stock it's a meme stock it's a stock that has momentum because individual investors keep piling into it it's not even really a stock it's just a barometer may or may not actually be doing well as a company uh so mind you I and I retweeted this but but from this moment palente even with today's decline in share price is still up 200% from this Kramer moment uh now and you can watch that video you can follow me there on X and you can see that video in full but Jim Kramer if you want to look at the Jim Kramer effect he did also tweet today now some people might see this as a little bit of a warning is you could see this tweet here is paler will be back and uh Jim Kramer has turned decidedly bullish about paler over the last few uh few months here uh worth knowing that uh there are questions around what exactly does the paler Corporation do please explain I think one of the best things that you could do if you ever really want to understand what a company does is just read the earnings call of the or or sorry the annual report of a company earnings call is actually probably not so useful for explaining what the company does so I apologies for that but the annual report is ideal when you look at an annual report uh you don't actually have to read that far into it because usually in some of the first pages of the document you're going to get some business descriptions about what they actually do uh and so I want to show you some highlights here just to plant the seed of what's going on then we'll hit some more of the news and the details so they build software that empowers organizations to efficiently integrate their data their decisions and oper operations at scale basically they were AI before it was AI I've always called the paler the real AI player because you know their project or or their paler Gotham product or their Foundry product basically their commercial and their governmental software has been talked about and in use since back when I used to volunteer for the police department as a police explorer spent you know 1500 hours on the road with law enforcement we would always wonder how is it that chain of command knows that tonight we want more Patrols in one particular area and then all of a sudden more crime was popping up over there or another one was I remember working at Job juice and I'm not sure if they were exactly using paler or different software but they'd say you know it's weird that software today says we need to have four staff what it's dead why why four staff busiest day of sales ever it just all of a sudden comes in this is basically AI before it's AI it's making seasonal pattern connections linking not only seasonality but weather with uh local events local charity events local you know school events whatever it integrates all of this data together and then tries to provide you insights you can do the same thing frankly with the government and crime uh frankly there are some police departments that are sending out uh lists of where all the concealed carry weapons owners are or like what their names are what's interesting with that is you could take a software theoretically like paler take all of those names find pictures of all the those people online use that data to then sell it to anyone who's got CCT TV cameras anywhere in the world except for China because they don't want to do business with China KN but anyway you can sell that data to anyone in the world and somebody who has cameras outside their house or more likely business could have little boxes that pop up and say oh that person facially recognized comes up in the CCW uh database they might own a gun they might be carrying a gun in your you know place of business right now these these are just examples uh and and very basic examples mind you of like old AI this isn't even like new llm AI mind you they're actually kind of bearish on llms themselves which I actually thought that was really interesting they think chat is a dead end they don't want so when if you're wondering like what you know what what kind of AI I I think their earnings call is very fascinating they say it very very well here they go in and say our paler AI was built for reality chat was always a dead end instead we viewed llms as a new runtime for AI labor to catch her productive value of AI you need intermediate representation of your Enterprise that AI can actually interact with okay these are big words basically what they're trying to do is they're trying to automate things at companies and a great example they give of this is that companies can now upload CAD files for let's say their car designs their mechanical installations and cars and they can do in minutes what takes 100 hours for a human you know this is their example right so they're giving you their best examples on their earning call here so that's a little bit about what P paler is it's a software company right they make software that's designed to help you with efficiency now this efficiency part will actually become very important when it comes to the news that just came out and government contracts uh in fact I want to play you this this is um I'm not trying to make this a pitch okay but this is from my course member live stream I'm going to give you an example here I I do these live streams every morning uh every day of the week you know unless I've got some kind of crazy commitment early in the morning um so I would say I'm like 95% of the time uh we're doing our course member live streams every single day uh and uh and I'll write out sort of these these thoughts about what's going on uh in not only the economy or theories or whatever and in this video I was talking about how uh the pH of the labor market could be upset but what I also might end up coming up to companies like paler and this was filmed on February 12th you can see it's on the listed video uh February 19th is what today is this is when we have the paler news and I just want you to hear this and and see what you think about this problem is the company the the you know uh startup he works for suggests uh a possible uh slowdown in Imagine This government contracts uh warning for paler SL he doesn't work there but um you know close to let's put it this way I'll summarize it for you four days ago I argued that people who work in Silicon Valley are starting to see cuts from government contracts or the potential risk that they may not get more hours I was talking about uh uh you know somebody who who wants more hours at their software job uh and how there's talk about a potential slowdown in government contracts and if they end up getting Cuts they might not end up getting more hours they might actually get fewer hours they might actually see layoffs and so this is where if you look at the uh professional and business services hiring so professional uh professional business services hiring St Louis Fred if we pull this up really quickly we could see a Slowdown in white collar workers basically being hired uh and so we're right now in December 2024 sitting around some of the levels that we saw in 2014 or 2015 in terms of professional hiring uh and also still sitting at levels that are roughly similar with right before 2008 over here in terms of hiring so certainly lower off peak levels here and this is leading some folks uh to to wonder like okay hey you know is this is this going to be something that uh that suggests AI is starting to replace workers or are government contracts potentially going to get cut uh via Donald Trump and Doge wanting to save money uh so paler earnings call actually talked about Doge before we heard of this update from The Washington Post which is the news of today I'll talk about that in just a moment but I want you to hear about Doge from them which they actually pronounce well I they pronounce it in a way that it's like impossible to oh doh yeah okay so let's go find this section right here paler real competition is the lack of accountability in the government forever software projects that cost an insane amount of money that don't actually deliver results end up being funded by basically the Deep State and when something like Doge goes in it starts cutting contracts for all of these bad companies it actually leaves more money for good companies like paler see paler here talks about how software had been created for the government that cost billions of dollars and didn't work and then paler comes in and does the job and actually gets the job done and only cost millions of dollars so they think that meritocracy and transparency coming to the government will actually be good for paler and good for America and so this is why I started the video off by saying it's possible this latest paler selloff could be a little bit overblown I'll talk about you know obviously some risks obviously but this is in their last earning skull so so maybe they saw some of this writing on the wall uh but uh you know short of uh of basically saying hey guaranteed pound here are safe from any kind of cuts these are just some things to watch for now this Washington Post article that came out today argues that the Pete Hef you know former Fox contributor now the defense secretary has ordered senior leaders of the Pentagon throughout the US military to develop plans for cutting 8% from the defense budget in each of the next 5 years okay so basically if you take the defense budget and you cut off 8% every single year you're down at 66% of the defense budget which If I multiply that by today's $850 billion defense budget uh they want to see it come down uh you know from $850 down to 66 it take it down to $561 billion so they potentially want to cut2 to $300 billion from the defense budget which maybe that's possible if you're not at war with Russia uh or or Ukraine well you don't have the Russia Ukraine conflict or you don't have the Israeli and Gaza conflict uh and maybe you even have some money left over to invest in an iron doome in America who knows this has been talked about as well but this budget cut whether they're talking about cutting 8% out of like the growth of the budget every year or literally from zero growth cutting down to 92% every single year is not entirely clear it's going to be something that's going to get opposition in Congress obviously so we'll see what happens here uh but this is the news that led to this idea of oh okay hold on a second could this end up hurting Palante here Trump Administration wants certain things to be exempt like the border modernization of nuclear weapons missile defense acquisition of submarines one-way attack drones and Munitions which talk about drones is actually very interesting the New York Times has a piece about how the CIA is expanding secret drone flights over Mexico likely in coordination with Mexico but the point is they're collecting data uh and they're passing that data on to Mexican officials uh they found that drones are actually really good at identifying fentanyl labs for example because of the chemicals that these fentanyl Labs use are really easy to spot from the air and I think paler software could actually be useful in helping these drones do their jobs but let's be clear there is also competition right paler is very popular uh paler has been very popular as well in fact if you look at this 2019 article from The Washington Post they actually talk about how a bunch of insiders who used to work for the government now work at paler and that's one of the ways paler keeps getting these contracts because the you know the people who have connections with the government who make the decisions work at paler so you've got this really kind of like symbiotic relationship this uh this by the way was a Washington Post piece about back when pal paler had a lot of drama going on regarding ethical concerns about the privacy and the data that they collect on illegal immigrants uh and you know they talk about hey look you know we're trying to help the government a lot of people are like this isn't fair paler shouldn't be Pro profiting off of people you know getting kicked out or deported out of the country and so some workers were filing petitions and blah blah blah blah but anyway paner makes a lot of money from the government and and this is important this is why the stock is getting hit uh in fact about 66% of their revenue comes from the government so let's take a look here so we can actually I can want I want you to actually see where I'm getting this data I don't want you to think I'm just making this stuff up uh okay so first of all uh Revenue growth with the government was 44% from the government year-over-year last quarter so great government growth however it's not just the United States they're also expanding their Partnerships with the United Kingdom uh and other countries but but growth in international is actually very very slow I want to say it was 133% of their business comes from these International countries and that only rep is that section is only growing by about 4% so I want you to see that uh that is right revenues here we go okay 66% of our Revenue came from the United States 34% came from abroad but from a growth perspective we only here it is we're growing around uh 4% on the 133% of our company that includes Continental Europe so yes let's clarify this 34% of their International or revenue is international 13% of it is Europe and of that 13% it's only growing at 4% so you're seeing most of this company's revenues and growth coming from the United States both the United States government but also United States commercial companies now why is that so important well it's important again because if the government is trying to cut contracts is it possible paler could lose some contracts and is that why paler is potentially selling off back to the line that we always talk about uh in our course member live streams keep this in mind you can always join these courses uh but um and we're going to have a pretty large price increase on these courses uh starting at the end of the month go to meet kevin.com to see him just join the trumponomics one it's the most popular one right now it gets see into the course member live streams lifetime access to that Alpha report the new lectures on building your wealth under Trump uh but uh I'm going to be releasing a lot of new lectures and and by the time we do that we're going to have another massive price increase for the trumponomics course so check it out if you have questions email us at kevinm kevin.com but anyway uh in and we talk about this kind of stuff almost daily I literally talked about stop-losses on paler this morning in the course member Liv stream uh before this news came out just because we've been keeping an eye on the potential for this happening but anyway we're going to talk valuation here next but I want to give you sort of all of this information on paler because I think it's very useful uh keep in mind they're also working uh you know with countries in Africa and South America you name something else to know is that they're very concerned about China they argue that we are in an AI arms race and they actually say that a deep seek is basically a warning shot it's like the shot her across the world uh shot her around the world you know kind of like Anyway old US History kind of stuff but anyway they talk about how China basically steals our IP they don't want to work with China we also have to stop believing that you know an anchor broke deep sea cables communication cables in Europe it was probably China and we also have to be really careful that why is it that all of a sudden GPU sales are exploding in Singapore you know Nvidia sales blowing up in Singapore it's a tiny island nation pretty sure there's some sanction evasion going on there and basically China's funneling Nvidia chips probably for deep seek through uh Singapore another thing to keep in mind is the company does give you a warning and this is something to know about the short term for the stock q1 and Q2 are usually the worst in terms of growth so they're giving you that warning a lot of people aren't paying attention to that but seasonality uh is the best when the government budget ends in Q3 and Q4 and it's the worst in q1 and Q2 so watch that and they're still growing at about 18% with their existing contracts but their new contracts come in bring their growth to closer to the 40 to 50% range that'll be important in just a moment so let's understand some fundamentals here this company is very very rich okay they they went from uh $4 billion in current assets to about $6 billion in current assets over the last year that's a growth of about $2 billion they only have about $427 million in current liabilities other than like deposits or deferred revenue uh they get some lease revenues in there as well whatever big deal very very very little current debt very little long-term debt I mean honestly almost no long-term debt a couple hundred million dollars here very small make sure I said million here not billion on these numbers uh and uh the company has no problem with cash flow that is not a problem here they have a fortress balance sheet part of this is because they keep issuing new shares so you have to watch for this over the last year they issued about 150 I round it here 150 million more shares at $100 a share that's worth $15 billion but wait a minute their assets only went up by $2 billion see like that's the kind of dilution that that does hurt a potential stock so just so you know how that works if you're like a real estate company I don't know I'll make one up house hack and let's say we issue uh 25 million shares and raise you know $40 million or whatever right or or $30 million $35 million it doesn't matter you raise some level of of money you issue those shares if you take that money and then you go buy so let's clarify it you raise 25 million shares let's just make it easy and say you raise $35 million you take that $35 million you buy $35 million of discounted real estate that's worth $45 million you actually made all of those shareholders money all of that those shares literally turned into assets that you bought for a discounted value and everybody gets the upside of that that's not what we see here in terms of the balance sheet now the share price has gone up because there's a lot of momentum right now for artificial intelligence and paler is seen as sort of like the king of this but keep this in mind this share dilution even though the company is buying back shares that share dilution is a negative weight uh to Palante so do watch for that they are also conducting stock by backs which is good but you still have to deal with the weight of insiders dumping this stock uh and it's worth noting this stock tweets twits mentioned this paler Insider transactions in 2024 sells $3.1 billion buys $0 nobody's buying this stock who's an Insider they're getting rich off of this stock because you have the AI momentum Fortress balance sheet good growth good growth it's not great good growth uh it's so this is one of the reasons why a smaller Catalyst uh like you know potentially I mean look this this ice partnership is probably actually good for paler this is that 2019 article let's go ahe and close that but that's why you do have some concerns that this Heth announcement could end up hurting paler in addition to that you've got Alex karp's plan to sell $1.2 billion worth of stock that apparently he filed back in December and it only just now became public now and he could start selling about 10 million shares between now and September 2025 so so you know if I take I mean how many days is that we're in March uh almost to March that's about 6 months how many trading days are we going to have there 180 days for 6 months uh let's say we have about I don't know 70% of those days are trading days 126 trading days 126 trading days 9975 divided by 126 trading days yeah sell about 79,000 shares uh per day to to get this done if you want to sort of butter it out entirely like that which that works out to about $8 million a day paler probably has enough buying interest to cover that that's something to keep in mind remember when Elon Musk started dumping shares at Tesla it created some pain okay so we saw this now let's talk about the growth really quickly uh so here we go us Revenue grew at 52% year-over-year this is fantastic that's the average of that commercial revenues grew at 64% 45% year-over-year on government so government's already been slowing down down compared to commercial but this is important because if Government growth which I think should go up honestly because of uh like Doge I mean they're all big fans of efficiency uh so their their product helps you be more efficient right but US government revenue let's just say worst case scenario that government revenue went to zero and you only grew on Commercial Revenue what does the valuation of this company look like also before we hit that I want you to see this uh let's see here I want you to see what's going on with their net income because their net income is great and we want to see growth of that because that uh that EPS is going to matter but when we go through their growth we're using adjusted EPS why does adjusted EPS matter adjusted EPS just know they're adding back in their stock comp so net income at this company isn't that fantastic so in 2024 you have $467 million of net income that's after $691 million of stockcoming off over there you've got that the point is one of the ways that they're paying for a lot of their staff is through stock based comp it makes sense that a software company but again it is stock dilutive so just just know that now they do make good money they've got good cash flow but the EPS isn't that great especially adjusted EPs and that adds back to stock comom uh and we could verify that too one of the things that you can generally do is when you look at an earnings report uh or even like an annual report you get what I generally like to do is I just type in adjusted uh earnings and then you usually get an answer in terms of how they break down what their earnings are compared to Gap financials now I want to keep it simple I don't want to go through too much here but as we go into their valuation just look at this adjusted earnings per share 14 their Gap earnings per share which I again I'm not going to go through all the adjustments right here but they usually also account for stock comp whereas adjust it doesn't their Gap is only three cents per share so that's why when I say they're not making a lot of money I'm saying they're not making a lot of money for shareholders right now they make plenty of money their margins are fantastic and actually margin expansion might be something that helps them if you look at their margins their gross margins they're over like 75% it's fantastic not necessarily their net margin but look at this revenues of 652 divided by 827 what is that 78.9% margin that's fantastic now yeah a lot of that money is going into sales and marketing I mean look how much sales and marketing grew you know with their new AI coding boot camp where they're trying to get people really into using this product their marketing grew 46% now that might be okay though because their revenues after all are up 30% overall so that does imply a little bit of negative operating leverage uh and they are spending more on R&D they're spending more on GNA it's a growing company but point is when you get to the bottom line your earnings per share on a gap bases are pretty low now again why does that matter because if we go over to a spreadsheet we can look at the forecast for this company and understand its valuation so if you zoom in over here you'll see EPS forecast by Wall Street what do you end up getting Wall Street this is adjusted so I'm going to put the a in front of it adjusted EPS forecast 54 cents in 2025 67 cents 26 83 cents a buck 06 a buck 35 does not include Gap EPS okay so gap's going to be way lower so adjusted EPS is growing at an average right now of about 25% the share price today is about 125 bucks before the drop we'll change this in just a moment uh and that c gives them a Ford EPS or forward PE ratio price to earnings ratio today so at 2025 I'm not going backwards I'm looking forward backwards would be even worse 229 is the PE Ratio if I divide 229 by that forecast growth I'm at a PEG ratio of like nine which is really bad free cash flow to market cap is also very low it's less than 1% you usually want this to be like 3 to 6% you know how much cash flow the company's actually generating relative to the market cap cuz we can look and go hey they created $2 billion of cash flow great but how does that compare to their value you want a company that has some high market cap and a lot of cash flow generation right so if you take an expected PEG ratio and you say this company's EPS is going to keep growing at 25% well you could see what the stock would decline to if it aligned with an expected PEG ratio now I'm not saying that's what's going to happen what I actually think is that if Government revenues do what I think they're going to do which is hopefully go up because they use pal volteer more and this company actually grows more you could probably bump all of these growth rates on average over the next four years to 32% that might be too bullish but let's go with 32% in the event that you use 32% its PEG ratio goes down to about 7.18 uh which which is still very very expensive right and if I change that 32% growth over here the share price today is probably still going to have to be lower the valuation that I could get to even with 32% growth assuming no declines for government or commercial contracts is negative 62% in 2029 from today it still be netive 6% now if I bump this to 50% growth I'm still overvalued by 41% today but I could grow to about 181 bucks in 2029 which that is valuable with 50% growth but just be careful though because Tesla said it was going to grow at 50% and we saw what happened anyway the good news is I think commercial is going to overtake uh government growth I think margins can expand which will help this you do have some downside risk of a potential for Department of Defense spending reduction less war spending dilution 66% coming from the United States seasonality uh and then obviously macro is going to be another consideration as well I personally would love an opportunity to buy paler a lot cheaper like if there's a major recession or crisis or whatever it's a fantastic company and I actually think they've built up a fantastic moat and they'll be able to maintain great margins for the long term I don't think their product is a commodity at all so I'm excited about this company I just do recognize there are a lot of things whether it's fundamental or or dilution or Gap EPS there are a lot of things at this company that could hurt momentum in the short term so bottom line is the Department of Defense contract issue overblown absolutely in my opinion because it should be helping them not hurting them is the valuation overblown though yes is there a risk that this movement right here was driven by momentum yes watch levels 105 9068 thank you so much for watching if you like this video make sure to subscrib
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