저자: Kevin · 외국인
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도지(DOGE) 측과 트럼프 행정부가 미국 납세자에게 환급금을 지급하는 방안을 논의 중일 수 있다는 소식을 소개. 1인당 약 $196 수준으로 명목상 크지 않지만, 정부지출의 사중손실을 줄이고 세금을 되돌려주면 소비·GDP 증가 효과가 있다고 주장. 대신 인플레이션 우려는 있으나 공급망 과잉 설비로 완화 가능하다고 봄. 개인적으로 '매우 강세(bullish)'라는 입장 표명.
다듬은 글
hey it's me Kevin I just landed uh back from my check ride becoming an instrument pilot and I saw this notice that potentially there are talks that maybe the Doge team and Donald Trump could maybe be in talks to issue some kind of Doge refund uh to American taxpayers uh and uh this is really interesting because I've been studying a lot of what Doge has been doing and what Doge hasn't been doing and you know I'm a big fan of cutting waste where there's waste to be cut and a huge fan of transparency and so this suggestion though is a GameChanger this this changes everything because all of a sudden now what you're doing is you're actually aligning Doge with really what I think Americans were inspired by and that is what we save we will help give back to you now this has of course been confuddled in the media with this idea that well I mean discretionary budget of the United States is only you know uh 20% or 25% of the US government spending 50% goes to entitlement programs which I mean we paid into them so of course we're entitled to them uh and and then you know a bunch goes to well I mean about 25% goes to the military and then we've got discretionary funds and some of those things we got to pay for a good portion of our budget it goes to just paying for this unsustainable national debt that we have but I think I think a big fear was that a it wouldn't be feasible to actually see real Cuts uh like meaningful you know I mean look you kill usid usaid great awesome there's there you know kill all forign a it it amounts to $196 refund if you will per uh person living in America right per citizen in America or or green card resident or taxpayer however you want to look at it so uh the difference is nominal however uh this suggestion about uh going deeper and saying hey you know what we've actually taxed you too much and we're now going to try to find a way to get back to essentially a smaller form of government uh in and exchange give it back to the American taxpayers in the form of a tax refund this is actually quite brilliant because see government spending is almost intentionally wasteful one of the reasons it's almost intentionally wasteful and I'm not you know Shilling for government spending but anyways but one of the reasons government spending is intentionally wasteful is because it's so wasteful that it actually becomes stimulative so if you're getting showered your NGO or whatever government contract is getting showered in this government money and the government actually isn't getting their value for it yeah technically that's a dead weight loss because you're actually taking taking $100 from you with taxes you're giving it to the government who then you know deficit spends $150 but maybe only $90 actually go into GDP spending that's still $90 of stimulus so they basically took a $90 stimulus check from you and give it to somebody else so there is a dead weight loss in government spending inherently and I'm not a proponent of zero government but uh the capitalistic POV whether you're a Keynesian or Austrian the the bottom line is the Keynesian or Austrian view so no matter which economic model you look at when we look at capitalism we generally see that smaller government equals less dead weight loss now the canian argue that uh the government intervention and that dead weight loss for some is worth it for the benefit of others right such as this idea that well maybe the government can uh minimize the the uh like put a lid on an economic boom so you don't have sort of a 2008 bubble or 2005 bubble up right uh and and then we try to stimulate in the low times and we try to minim ups and downs austrians are like n man let the free market economy handle it and it's fine they're both economic schools of thought based on on this idea of capitalism not Socialism or Marxism or whatever but if you think as uh or if you think of government spending whether it's to excuse me whether it's to uh foreign aid or whether it's to some NGO or whether it's to some government contract that's really frivolous like it's for $150 you know soap dispensers in uh military B that wasteful form of government spending is so bad that it actually turns into stimulus whether that is in the form of corporate profits and then share BuyBacks and corporate Executives getting rich and and blowing money uh or or the people who are receiving the contracts the people who are receiving the pay or the people who work for the government who there are some obviously who just can't justify their existence or they don't do anything hopefully that's part of the smaller minority but who knows I guess we'll find out when we actually get more transparent details but see really I believe this is a massive Game Changer because when you say look rather than me tax you the $100 why I just give you the hundred bucks back and then not tax you that $100 next year well then in effect you are not stimulating to the tune of that $90 because you don't have that dead weight loss that Delta we talked about instead you're stimulating to the tune of $100 so really you could actually potentially grow the economy see one concern that a lot of folks have uh rightfully so is that hey if if Government spending contributes over 47% of gross domestic product now obviously we know consumers make up 70 is% of the Govern of of GDP but if that is funneled in you know to the tune of 47% by government spending again through entitlement programs or whatever uh or or just like even uh you know sub substenance spending you know food stamps or whatever it is point is if government spending contributes to half of GDP then let's just pick a number let's I mean maybe it's 47% but let's just make it easy let's say it's 50% but let's say that comes with a dead weight loss of 5% because the government is inefficient maybe it's even more than that dead weight loss maybe it's a 10% dead weight loss right instead you return that to Americans well then you potentially actually have this boost of 5 or 10% of spending so instead of government you know facilitating 50% of GDP they could actually in fact be facilitating 60% of GDP so you could actually see a GDP explosion and an optimism boom in that people are going to get tax less and they keep more of their own money this is something I could really get behind this I like the idea of you know Rich suits in Silicon Valley collecting more of uh you know government cuts to line their own interests like yeah build those AI chip factories for us and yeah give more stimulus to our you know government contracted and government supported entities that me a little the wrong way because it I feel like you're robbing the you know the the core American the person making you know ends meet by working their ass off and prices are going up and they're frustrated and they're pissed off and they're seeing crime go unpunished uh so uh this idea essentially of a tax refund or tax stimulus you know you're going to have some people argue oh my gosh it's going to be inflationary which yeah I mean if it's not measured in the way it's provided could be inflationary but remember I'm actually a believer that the reason we had a lot of the inflation that we had is because we had uh Supply chains that weren't really built out they weren't prepared for the type of volume of orders that actually came during covid especially when people were making money for doing nothing and so what's interesting is now we actually have an over supply of factories and businesses that are ready and willing to serve Americans with more money so if the it's kind of like imagine you gained 500 pound and you were still alive and then you lost it all really rapidly you know you'd have some extra sag there right imagine that extra sag is extra production for the US economy well you could fill that up without expanding without frankly inflating like the flab just fills up again but you don't have to expand what's already there now that may not be the most ungru example but from an economist point of view from an economic point of view can we say that the government creates dead weight loss yes can we say that the government would just be better off taxing us less absolutely now does that mean there shouldn't be regulations like should lenders be able to give people who can't uh uh you know ever expect to afford their payments back should that be a possibility uh to the tune where they have no assets to secure I'm not talking about like real estate back debt I'm talking about even just like personal negam loans that are just based on your social and they have you know you get a 50 $50,000 $100,000 loan yet you make $20,000 a year is should things like that be allowed an analogy by the way there is student loans should students making $20,000 a year working at you know Jamba or as a server be eligible for $50 to $100,000 loans you I think not I think that's a scam uh you know if you have an asset and you're leveraging an asset that's different uh but then you should also have some form of transparent disclosure like you shouldn't have a loan that starts you off at a 0% interest rate or a negative percent interest rate and then adjusts suddenly in the future and then you get foreclosed on when you can't repay right when the bank wants it that's a scam right that's actually something that like the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau was created to prevent from happening so I do have some concerns that you could actually create a bubble up of of you know Mal investment and Mal lending but honestly the free market does handle that I mean 2008 was an example of the free market solving that and correcting that problem the issue is it just comes with a lot of a lot of pain this is why austrians say n man let the free market handle it and this is why keynesians are like n man free Market's getting eff it up and so this is why this debate exists and to some extent You could argue that you know the Obama Democrats which I think are very different from you know some other Democrats I think the Obama Democrats are level-headed and reasonable in this sense I actually don't think they're sort of the the extreme Dem uh they're more of like no no no the government should be there to help and we cut around the edges when we make cuts uh and then you have uh you know so the counter to that which right now appears to be the more musky in approach which is no man just give the people their damn money back and stop wasting the damn money you know they're ups and downs to everything here but the bottom line of this this is truly the direction that we're going to go this is a fantastic win for the American people and frankly it makes me very very bullish on the future of the economy this this is a GDP contributor in an era where it won't necessarily be inflation depends how they do it you know if it's like here's a I mean look in in 2021 I I I had to write a check for like $11 million in taxes uh that's insane that was the check for taxes alone I got taxed like 60% you know thanks to well California in part but the federal government was responsible for 41% of the tax and the California government was responsible for like 12.6% of the tax so you know the federal government took most of my money I just chose to live in California because my wife and my seven children and and and yeah you gave them a little bit more but um would it be stimulative could more people be hired and more businesses created if there were lower taxes ABS freaking lutely and if this comes back in the form of a refund or just frankly larger tax cuts in the future big fan Count Me In I think this is wonderful no no sorry I didn't get dressed up for this or whatever honestly I'm a little overwhelmed uh in in just like how hard it was to study uh and get ready for my instrument check ride to become an instrument rated pilot uh this is a serious profession it takes a lot of work and a lot of effort but I am excited to be back and uh leave a comment down below what kind of video would you like do you want to see some beginner Finance videos do you want to see some real estate videos do you want to uh you know uh probably more like next month uh you know I'm going to be flying again next month do you want me to go fly around to some of our house hack properties and and do some videos on those we could do that as well or even just review matterport scans uh from the studio we can do that leave me a comment down below let me see what you want to hear what you want to see and uh me see how I can help you out thank you so much for watching and supporting we'll see youall soon bye
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