저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라 주가 하락의 배경으로 일론 머스크의 X(트위터) 인수 부채 리파이낸싱 리스크와 테슬라 주식 담보/매도 가능성을 제시. 2024년 1분기 중국 판매 급감(2개월 합산 전년比 -6.2%), 사이버트럭 생산·FSD 완성도 지연, 가격 인하에 따른 디플레이션 역설을 지적. 월가 성장 전망(약 26~28%)은 낙관적이라 PEG가 높다고 평가하며, 장기 전기차·휴머노이드 로봇 가능성은 인정하나 단기(18개월) 실적 하락을 우려.
다듬은 글
if you want to know what's going on with Tesla you need to understand these two numbers which I'll explain in this video but first we got to get out of the way what this is not this drama of Tesla SN falling over 6% today does not incorporate what the heck is possibly going on with X and I'll tell you we just had news about that we just heard that multiple Banks were in talks to try to shore up the debt that backs the x/ Twitter acquisition deal and so far it looks like some of those talks have fallen apart why does that matter well as most people who invest in Tesla know Elon uses Tesla you can't blame him but he has and he potentially will again Tesla as his piggy bank to finance other projects Tesla has been used to finance the acquisition of Tesla selling over $24 billion in 2020 2 2 which was almost $8 billion more than what retail bought that year now Elon did promise not to sell any Tesla shares the year after which was 2023 that's over now maybe he wouldn't sell in 2024 which is now so that means we're in the maybe world but the fact that there's also talk about things maybe not being great or at least Banks having to write down their ownership value of SL Twitter ownership by 60 to 70% isn't so great when it comes to Tesla news because here's the thing you might initially think Kevin why why does this matter well it matters because it's kind of like potentially getting margin called you know if a bank says hey we'll lend you x billion dollars uh so that you can buy X you know Twitter uh but it's predicated on loan terms that say the equity in the deal needs to be why and all of a sudden X plummets because of user growth or issues or Revenue issues who knows well then you definitely have what we call refinancing risk and unfortunately that's not even being talked about right now when it comes to good old Tesla and I hate to be the bearer of additional news but consider this Fidelity wrote down their position 72 percent Morgan Stanley I didn't give a percentage here but they took an almost billion dooll loss on the value of their portion of the debt there was about a 12.5 billion debt package when it comes to X and uh the group that put this entire package together did hold talks with Elon it says here earlier this year and those talks faltered so what kind of pressure comes next who knows do we really want to know not really because this is supposed to be a Tesla video so why are we spending the first nearly 3 minutes talking about X well because unfortunately when the largest shareholder of the company has turned the company into a bit of a piggy bank for other projects you have to that's just the way it is if you don't talk about it you're kidding yourself now is Tesla dead are EVS over are EV is the next plant-based food no uh and I want to be crystal clear about that I was asked that question Point Blank this morning in our course member live stream where we do fundamental analysis every day the market is open we talk Trends whatever's going on real estate analysis you name it Eevees are the future there is zero doubt in my mind Eevees will be the future they are substantially easier to maintain they are substantially more powerful they are more capable Vehicles when it comes to computer responses with autonomy much more fantastic Vehicles the problem is we have time between then and now why well because of a few things range anxiety which let's be real there are enough supercharging stations everywhere but people's memory is very uh uh house how I should I say people's memory is very elastic meaning that once people are convinced that range is a problem with electric vehicles especially in the cold it takes a very long time to get people out of that memory hole right uh and in the future Battery Technology and Battery warming technology will be such that this really isn't an issue but the reality is yes range does decline with cold at least at this point and yes certain batteries like the lipos lithium I am phosphates not to be confused with liposuction not sure why I'm making that comparison yes those you generally only charge up to to about uh 80% those with Nickel in uh included there are some batteries that are now the nickel-free batteries like the 4680 which you don't necessarily have to only charge to 80% you know and the whole point of that is not to have longer term battery degradation of you know 5 to 10% or whatever the 4680 is you don't have that issue you could really charge them up to 100% but still when you look at Tesla's showpiece for a 4680 product what do you get you you get a cyber truck that was released that's maybe manufacturing I don't know a couple hundred Vehicles a week which is a Far Cry of what Tesla put on the financial press release of 250,000 vehicles of capacity 200 time 52 weeks maybe we'll deliver to like 10,000 cyber trucks this year maybe we can even double that and go to 20,000 but wall Street's looking for 50,000 and there are people out there thinking it's going to go to 250,000 for a vehicle that sells for $100,000 where they do continue to expand who's getting invites for the cybertruck and they don't even have full self-driving for that's probably the biggest pisser for me no parking sensors no F like those are all short-term annoyances obviously the Cyber truck is going to have FSD in the future obviously FSD is going to continue to get in the direction of better and yes of course we're going to talk China numbers and all the other stuff but the point is right now what we've got is the glitz of the Cyber truck is behind us because now it's out and it ain't that Glam that's a problem and it's going to take a while for it to be Glam instead in the meantime you're going to see as we predicted this vehicle on tow trucks you're going to see people complain about it you're going to see features that are stupid like no FSD it does it's like illogical I don't understand why you would buy a Tesla and and then not have full whatever uh and and of course FSD prices are still ridiculous I did just get version 12 and I have to say I'm a little disappointed now I will say it's extremely impressive that it is a neural net trained system this thing can make u-turns like the last version couldn't even make a full U-turn this sucker will make a U-turn for me and I'm like OHA damn that's pretty good it'll do things that are great but I'll just give you a couple examples railroad track red light this sucker creeps up sees red light railroad track no train no gate or anything and it just stops at the railroad track and then it wants to go like half a mile an hour to get the 30 ft to the stop line of the red light to go make its right turn and I'm like bro I don't have time for this again maybe I'm being impatient but the old version wasn't that weird so there it it to me it felt like getting fsd2 and this is the first time I've done this in a very long time but when when I saw that fsd2 update pop up I looked at I'm like oh hell yeah I went straight home updated that sucker the moment the update was on was done Lord I'm getting milk like I felt like I was 16 again I'm like oh yeah we're going to try this out we're going to the grocery store man it actually handles roundabouts really well like the old version it was like you were going into a roller coaster you'd go into the roundabout and then and then you'd be like okay here we go W like this cuz it would like floor it halfway through the roundabout and it's like we still have turning to do here anyway uh this one goes through the roundabout just fine but for improving that and giving me u-turns it's ridiculously slow at certain stop lights and sometimes I don't know where it gets this idea from but when it's making unprotected lefts it wants to cut it really freaking close I never have had to slam on the brakes with this freaking car before because it was going to pull left in front of traffic that was speeding I'm like that was just my first drive just my first drive maybe it was an anomaly maybe I should have just said you know what f it I'm just going to see what happens and if I get T-boned oh well I'll blame Elon but then part of me is like I can't do that I got seven kids so uh yeah like again I I'm I'm not here to say it's not good like it's so impressive that a neural net trained FSD product can do what it can do but let's just say if we were looking for something that was going to go oh my gosh fsd1 is like 80% of the way there this is 90% of the way there it's more like oh my gosh 11 was 94% of the way there oh my gosh 12 is 94.5% of the way there because well we did go forward it felt like we also went back and so we netted out a little bit ahead so step in the right direction but again practically for users it's not there yet oh well that's what it is FSD is just taking longer to get to realization that's a pain point for the company now remember those two numbers I brought up yeah those don't even have to do with the Chinese numbers now a lot I want to be crystal clear about this a lot of the Twitter bull Community uh and I I just want to be clear like after having seven kids and uh going through what I've been through with kids in emergency surgery and almost dying I like bluntly I look at these numbers and like I feel nothing anymore about anything other than like people so so forgive me if I sound maybe a little CST I've been through a little bit here and and I know it could be way worse okay so knock on wood I don't want it to be way worse I I'm just saying the sample I got I'm like oh okay all right so anyway G to get on emotional here um Tesla numbers with China a lot of people right now are arguing that oh Tesla China numbers they're just low because of the shift in Chinese New Year please please please take the stick out of your high horse's but like no no okay yes it is true that Chinese New Year this year occurred on February 10th versus January 20th last year which means the start of Chinese New Year and the end of it was all in February this year whereas last year is split over two months Chinese New Year 2024 dates just pump it in boom what is the Chinese New Year it's the 10th so the celebration happened slightly before and slightly after because people go travel to be with their friends and their family and whatever so yes probably the 5 days plus or minus are bad for vehicle sales and those occurred fully in February so a lot of people are like well yeah you know the February numbers this year were lcus Chinese no no and I will explain why no because it's actually quite simple all you have to do is go and add together the TW Monon period okay the two-month period and I'm not even using doomberg numbers here okay we could see doomberg numbers here because they got it somewhere around here uh they talk about EV sales us here it is uh 16 okay Monday's Chinese numbers the 6,365 vehicles delivered uh from Chinese factories in February were the lowest read since December of 22 so that's about 14 months ago down 16% month over month and year-over-year the decrease was 19% a lot of people are like oh those numbers are fugazi you know because of the Chinese New Year fine and I'll talk about this other 25% number in just a moment but what do you actually have when you add these two digits together well let's just do it 60,00 uh 400 plus 71,500 the 2023 numbers because just so you know that total is 131.8 th000 and then if I go all the way over here I add together 66.1 74.4 and what do I get 140.5 okay now this is simple math 131.8 divided by the old number 140.5 what do I get I get a decline over the two-month period of 6.2% yes that means a company where we were expecting for a period of time 50% growth and I personally thought well I thought that was high I've generally been in the 30 to 35% growth rate for this company we are literally now talking 2month decline compared to the prior year now let's be real that potential for decline going forward and the decline is actually happening at a company you might be familiar with with exposure to China as well it's a small company uh that has performed decently over the past few days you don't want to be bitter over this one or the past few weeks or the past few months or the past year it's Nvidia uh they too have had negative sales in China in fact the Chinese outlook for NVIDIA is devastating the difference is nvidia's been able to offset that with massive growth elsewhere Tesla's not Tesla expects about 25% of their revenues to come from China and unfortunately with the Chinese economy likely in recession Xin ping thinking that you know we don't really need to stimulate more because if we stimulate that'll lead to frothy growth and we want long-term growth that's high quality not cheap growth therefore refusing to do more stimulus leaves guess what Tesla cutting prices and contributing to more promotions in March Tesla for example is increasing promotions by $487 off of a model 3 or model y if you buy in China in March in the United States they threw in $5,000 of free supercharging miles so the promotion ism is continuing at Tesla now there's a problem with that it's a real problem when prices decline you end up running into the Paradox of deflation so I want to talk about that and then of course this negative growth here I don't want to run away from this negative growth uh but before I talk about the Paradox of deflation which is wildly important that you understand this it is also wildly under important that you mark your calendar for June 21st to June 23rd we've got some insane innovation-based finance-based speakers coming up that we going to announce including some startups that are going to present some pretty sick things now stay tuned for the reveal once we actually make the official reveals we're going to raise the prices not like Tesla declining pric we're going to raise the prices of this event Mark a calendar it's going to be in Vegas June 21 22 23 it's going to be sort of a like an evening cocktail reception party followed by two full days of actually learning how to build wealth and real estate Finance being exposed to Innovation speakers were calling at the millionaire Symposium I really hope you're there it's at meetkevin.com you'll see the banner forward or it's linked down below highly encourage you be there I want to make this the finance event of the year and you know me I'm no BS this we're going to do everything we can to make sure when I touch it it's always a providing more circumstance so stay tuned okay with that said Tesla with a decline of 6.2% in revenues year-over-year how are we going to prevent that from leading earnings per share to from declining well maybe we can advertise oh but wait that isn't working now that's not saying Tesla shouldn't advertise it's just saying Tesla with advertising and we're still getting a 6.2% decline in revenues either the ads ain't working or the product ain't selling or both or the ads are working and the products are selling less which is also bad right so that's not good because now you have to consider what Wall Street is projecting Wall Street is projecting uh roughly 28% growth for this company in fact if I go to my peg sheet here uh it's actually 26.6 5 uh Tesla is projecting here I'll just throw it up on screen right here we went through this in the course member live this morning uh and this is before it updates to today's prices given that obviously it fell like 6% today uh numbers just uses yesterday's prices all the time but whatever it's formulaic so at yesterday's prices which would actually be Friday's we've got 26.6 5% growth projected which puts us at about a 2.4 Peg so if I drop that to 190 it puts us at about a 2.3 Peg okay big deal that's a nominal difference I personally think there's a risk that growth based on this q1 decline is actually going to for the next 4 years average out to closer to 20% than 30% that actually means Tesla selling for a PEG ratio of closer to three which is pretty hot the only thing that also has a PEG ratio that's pretty high like this would be well like a pounder at 4.3 but you actually want to see another one Nvidia nvidia's Wall Street forecast Peg is 7.46 it's freaking insane Wall Street after this year so when you get to January 2025 you're projecting an EPS of 24.5 which is double last year's EPS which is great but from that double on for the next average of 4 years the market is expecting 4.5% growth at Nvidia which means Nvidia right now at 822 bucks has a PEG ratio of 7.46 that's insane now the stock War today is at 852 if I change it to 8 uh uh 52 you're actually at 7.73 you could almost round that to 8 it's nuts so what's happened is you've pulled forward so much growth at Nvidia that that's why the stock is skyrocketing now the problem with Tesla is Tesla stock ran up so much 3 years ago because we pulled forward growth the problem today is we might not even have that growth we might actually have a year of no growth which tanks the 4-year average consider this for a moment if you have four years in a row of 30% growth 30 plus 30 plus 30 you have 120% growth right and I understand this is compounded but I'm just going to get an average annual growth rate all I have to do is take 120 divided 4 We're simplifying here what do I get obviously it's an average four-year growth rate of 30% per year and then of course to calculate EPS that compounds right easy math okay but what if I now do zero for no growth one year plus then we get to 30% growth 30% growth 30% growth well that's simple you could do that in your head that's 90 90 divid 4 might not be able to do that in your head but it's 22.5 5 which is the number I've written here and it's based on q1 figures so yes Tesla's Peg is actually not that cheap now keep in mind we have hope oh trust me there is no shortage of opium my God Tesla Optimus program you got to be kidding if you don't think robots are the future and you got to be kidding yourself if you don't think Tesla has one of the greatest competitive advantages given that they actually have in-house manufacturing for all these freaking robots you could get a company like figure AI that it's getting use somebody else to manufacture them I I don't really know what their plans are maybe those are their plans or what but here's a startup that basically had nothing a year ago and is now worth like over $2 billion it's freaking ludicrous but it's hopium because you know oh yeah there's going to be AI in these robots who's going to make them for you and then what's it going to do unload boxes from from from you know uh like a a container well the only kind of demos we get are uh you know pressure grip uh and then wobble for a little bit and set down but what about when you have to start lifting from high what about when you have to start lifting from low like the the future is there the future is clear in my opinion this is my opinion it's very clearly artificial intelligence and it is very clearly humanoid Robotics and it is very clearly electric vehicle but again the question is how much of that can I price in today the the reality is probably not that much it's it's wonderful hopium but again here look at the figuring okay I want you to look at this very closely so we're going to I'm going to play it once quickly this sucker goes to pick up this box mind you $2 billion valuation okay it goes to pick up this box and then it's going to go walk on over to the conveyor belt here we go come on all right I'm just going to fast forward a little bit all right cool it sets it down now a lot of this can be pre-programmed scripting it doesn't necessarily mean it's autonomous but the idea is obviously there now what I really want you to see is and I'm not sure if they're where they show me the closeup ah here it is here it is watch this grip and when you see the hand grip I want you to see something very key that happens watch here there do you see that I don't know if you saw that but clearly if you look very closely you're going to see this box is empty you know that because imagine picking up a box with just like two fingers putting a a pressure point so you're basically making a how should I say you're making kind of a pivot point on something right and if it's slightly unbalanced it's going to fall right out of your hands so you pick up anything like that it's going to tip over look I'll take this iPad for an example if if I go to pick up this iPad and I pick it up slightly too far at the front what's going to happen it's going to fall right if I pick it up slightly too far at the back what's going to happen it's going to fall if I pick it up perfectly in the middle and then I start walk see I can't even get it right and I start walking with it it's going to have like this little wobble to it right watch that video watch that wobble boom see that wobble look at that wobble it kind of got lucky where it pinched it imagine there was stuff actually in it now that's figure AI again it's early yes it's cool Terminator this that everybody's excited about it there's a lot of work to be done here now that doesn't mean it's not technology that's worth investing in I'm actually bullish on investing in things that are humanoid robot uh or in the direction of humanoid robots or whatever like I'm bullish on that whole world but I want to be clear pricing that hopium into Tesla is not probably going to help us much for our four-year growth Target so what does the stock market do the stock market only gives a crap about the next 18 months so forget your four year forget five or 10 year price Target doesn't matter why is the stock down today because over the next 18 months Tesla's probably looking at negative growth and I hate to say it I really hate to say it because I I feel like I'm a big believer that you know the FED has has overtightened interest rates need to come down substantially but you know what I wrote this on ec.com this morning and I was very clear about it I said look jpow speaks this week and what are we faced with the loosest financial conditions we've had all year the earn the uh layoff recession isn't occurring the New York Community Bank issue is probably idiosyncratic I talked about all this this morning like you can see my detail on that video from this morning real estate prices at least in single family are stable in multif family and Commercial you have problems but that creates opportunity and even Atlanta fed's GDP growth estimat which just fell a percent is still at 2.1 so you don't really have this necessity of cuts ASAP in fact if anything the whole AI re ution hurt Tesla because Tesla has used ai ai since before the AI Revolution so it didn't really benefit much I don't think from the AI Revolution sure maybe you get some more powerful chips out of it to help learn or or teach FSD a little better but what you're actually getting is a stronger GDP as a result of the AI spend and that leads to more jobs which leads to less urgency to cut rates which hurts an interest rate sensitive stock like Tesla so now you look at this company you go well damn FSD issues cyber truck issues negative growth the Chinese numbers I I mean you have to lie to yourself to tell you that they're good oh and then you got the deflation Paradox wh why please those of you who have watched my channel for years you know I say this I say this over and over and over again why is deflation bad or at least why do economists think inflation is bad because when deflation occurs people stop spending money because they expect things are going to get cheaper so therefore they wait for it to be cheaper they stop spending which then crushes the economy it's what China is going to experience oh great Tesla's exposed to China we know that already the deflation Paradox when it comes to Tesla is oh Tesla prices are plummeting basically another price cut every so often you know all you have to do is wait two months and you get another price cut why would you invest in a new Tesla now just wait wait for rates to come down wait for prices to stop falling so you don't have negative equity after you buy something wait for FSD to get cheaper so all of that together is not great now sure it is good that more people have jobs real wages are positive when the economy booms maybe people will spend more money on vehicles it is entirely possible that China is just in the dump and the United States is going to blow us out of the water that is entirely possible but but I'm going to tell you something and and some people are really bagging on this guy and he doesn't deserve it you should know Troy teslik he does uh estimates or whatever with the VIN numbers for Teslas not very optimistic on us DMV registrations for q1 so it's not just China in fact Wall Street is forecasting 49,000 vehicles to be delivered in q1 518 Q2 54.5 Q3 573 Q4 that's like 2.1 million which would represent about 17.2% annual growth and then 30% from there but what happens if that q1 number is actually 450 and each one of those is actually lower well then you're not looking at 70% growth anymore so you got to write down the stock so Wall Street is overly optimistic at least based on these Chinese numbers and Troy's q1 estimates which maybe Troy's just wrong which would be great but it's possible you could go he's got like a patreon or whatever you could go look at if you want so then you have to consider and I hate to say it but you have to consider the brand Tesla's not the brand it used to be like Elon hate Elon don't care doesn't matter the fact is whether it's mainstream media bagging on EVS or it's bagging on FSD or it's bagging on elon's Antics on Twitter where he's basically just become a politician Tesla's brand has been hurt maybe one day they can fix it maybe they can still go on to be the most prolific Vehicle Manufacturer that exists maybe but I I don't know if that's clear so sentiment right now could not be worse and this is compounded by the fact that you've got the attorneys who basically eradicated elon's shareholder approved Compensation Plan demanding $6 billion of Tesla's stock to prevent uh that from being a cash expense now those attorneys are probably only going to get like 10% but that's still $600 million you shoot High to get the news because then everybody looks up the attorneys and they're like I want to hire that attorney it's a big ad it's a big ask it's a big ad it's it's just part of the game Ford by the way expected to lose $5.5 billion this year on electric vehicles that's on top of the nearly 52 billion they lost last year year Volvo is cutting EVS alt together Global shipments for EVS are only expected to grow at 25% this year so it's not just Tesla byd is also down by the way like 37% since last year with these February release numbers but that 25% EV shipment number is down from 36% growth last year and 96% growth the year before that so yeah EV sales are slowing down probably because just across the board we're seeing numbers slow now I do have all Autos numbers Autos per Goldman Sachs for February did actually beat expectations this is broadly our consensus was 15.4 Million uh in an annualized adjusted annualized rate seasonally adjusted annualized rate we actually hit 16 mil in February which was actually better than expected but EV mix stayed stable so some people are wondering could this potentially be the car bottom maybe but even if it is is I'm not sure if it is a benefact or if Tesla is a benefactor of that now I do think that Tesla will survive in the long run I want to be clear about that I do think Tesla is going to survive in the long run but want be clear like it's there's nothing so exciting where I'm like oh my gosh wall Street's wrong this stock should be skyrocketing that's just not there right now will that happen in the future hopefully is it here now no so is that challenging ABS freaking lutely does it suck if you're a Tesla share older absolutely that's why a lot of people just selling calls on the sucker it is massively shorted we know that so it ain't easy but it is what it is so there's your Tesla update I screwed up and accidentally deleted the ending so I have to press the button like this and you're just going to get to stare at me for a little bit maybe while I pull up the Weeble charellnks for watching see you in the next one
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